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Sixers thread: now with expectations

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by LondonSox, May 30, 2018.

  1. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Lol. Fair enough. :)
     
  2. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Jonathan Tjarks with interesting article on Butler here: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/7/18171626/jimmy-butler-sixers-wolves-chemistry. Snippet:

    The problem for Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown is that it isn’t as simple as dialing up more plays for Butler. Using one of Simmons or Embiid as a screener for Butler would take the ball out of their hands, and there isn’t anywhere to put the other on the floor. No one has much space to operate when Simmons (who hasn’t shot a 3 all season) or Embiid (who is shooting 29.7 percent from 3 on 3.8 attempts per game this season) is playing off the ball, since defenses will gladly leave them open on the perimeter. The 76ers have tried to put Simmons in the dunker spot on the baseline to make the spacing work, but that still requires pinpoint passing from all involved to pull off successfully.


    None of those issues particularly matter to Butler. There is a simple solution if Simmons and Embiid can’t both be on the floor when he is running pick-and-rolls: Take one of them out. Three high-usage players can be a crowd. The 76ers have been more effective when Butler is playing with one of his costars than with both.
     
  3. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    48mins/game, Brown can easily spread the minutes/shots out between Butler, Simmons, Embiid.

    PLUS for all the hand wringing going on about those guys being on the court together at the same time, Phila starting line up has been very efficient (+15.3 net rating). In fact, it's been more efficient than the Celtics recent starting lineup of MaMo/Smart/KI/Al/Tatum (+10.5 net rating) that we have been doing cartwheels about.

    As long as Brown sticks two +shooters (JJ, Chandler, Shamet, future acquisition) with Embiid/Simmons/Butler, their +defense together more than makes up for some perceived spacing issues. Also note, Butler has vastly improved his 3pt shooting over the years, with Embiid/Simmons drawing double teams down low I could see Butler easily hitting 40% of his open 3pt shots.

    I could also see that group improving as they get more comfortable together. They concern me as much as anybody else in the EC.

    https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612755

    https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612755
     
    #353 benhogan, Jan 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
  4. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I note that the Tjarks article (which is bad) is posted and the detrich article (which is good) isn't.

    Despite both being published on the same site at nearly the same time.

    Embiid is better at nearly everything with Simmons on court. Brown splits their minutes well.

    The issue is the rest of the roster. Putting the stars with non shooting guards who aren't even good defensively destroys the team.

    The starters are once again as good as any starters in the league, the bench is RELIANT on TJ, Korkmaz and Shamet. An ok back up guard, a guy they (stupidly) turned down a cheap option on and a late first rounder. That is why the team is losing leads and being a bit of a mess at times.

    But instead we get
    TrAdE bEn sIMmOns
    BuTler caNt pLaY wiTH EmBIID and SiMMOnS

    I am not ignoring that there was and is some friction but Jimmy has been pretty open when he's pissed and the sixers have to make him work given the cost.
     
  5. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    would you care to maybe post the article you like, and make a case for its ideas, rather than just bitching at us for not having posted it?

    I thought Ben Hogan gave a thoughtful and nuanced consideration of Tjarks' proposal, which deserved a lot better than a mocking l33t-speak reduction of his perspective. If he's wrong, he's surely earned more of a discussion about it than one line of playground-esque taunting in response.
     
  6. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Thanks.

    It did feel that the Tjarks article was a bit convoluted with some sort of anti-Jimmy/anti-Sixer slant.
    Tjarks article concluded with this:
    All three have different priorities, and there’s no way to satisfy all of them at once. Something may have to give in Philadelphia.

    What has to give? All 3 players are and will be All-Stars. Embiid is getting paid and will be a supermax eventually. Simmons will be a max player and he will improve on his shot, over the years, with or without Butler. Butler will max this offseason. The Sixers will continue to win and contend for EC titles with this group. I think their starting lineup matches up well with the Pacers, Bucks, Celtics and Raptors

    Sixers just need to move on from the Markelle saga and add 2 veteran bench pieces (preferably shooters). They have some young guys like Bolden, Korkmaz, Milton, Zhaire Smith and draft picks that could be trade bait to a tanker for that veteran talent.

    I'm sure the 76ers are perusing the Knicks, Hawks, Suns, Wizards, Bulls, Cavs rosters. Teams like the Magic, Pistons, Mavs, Grizz could also start moving their expiring contract veteran role players if they fall further out.

    Detrick article below. I found it more on point... probably because it agrees with my opinion of the Sixers/Simmons.

    https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/7/18171797/philadelphia-76ers-ben-simmons-jumper
     
    #356 benhogan, Jan 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
  7. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    It’s only Washington but the Big Three are meshing tonight. Butler 7-for-8 from the field. Simmons having an insane game, filling up the stat sheet. Embiid dominating down low.
    Just like last year, the Sixers front office needs to add two complementary reserve players to shore up the second unit. I believe Ben Hogan has covered that territory up above.
    It’s going to be a crazy conference race to the finish. Seems like everyone is better this year except maybe Boston, for now. Early January.
     
  8. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    I wonder if the Sixers are looking at the Mavs fading playoff chances and trying to figure out a way to add DSmithJr. The Mavs also want to unload Wes Matthews.

    Fake trade scenerio.
    76ers get: DSJ + Wes Matthews + Finney-Smith
    Mavs get: Fultz + Chandler + Phila '19 1st round + Miami '21 1st round

    Who says NO?

    This makes Phila better this year, adds bench depth, gives them a young scoring guard for the future & they lower their payroll for next season.

    Mavs move an unhappy DSJ, see if Fultz is fixable, & add valuable draft picks that could be moved for talent next season.
     
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    DSJ would be just as unhappy in Philly. He's not a SG. He's a PG.
     
  10. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Member SoSH Member

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    Aren’t there similar problems with DSJ playing next to Simmons as there are with him playing next to Luka, in terms of all of those players needing the ball in their hands running the play to be most effective? Smith has been decent from 3 so far this year (37.5%, on 3.7 attempts per game) and the Sixers could use the floor spacing, but I’m not sure he’d be any happier standing around watching Simmons dribble and make plays than he is watching Luka.

    Edit: beaten by bosox79.
     
  11. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Starting for the 76ers, playing for a contender/winner, getting plenty of open 3pt shots and he'd be on the floor with 3+++ defensive players. Wouldn't that would be a huge situational upgrade for DSJr? There's 48mpg so Simmons wouldn't have the ball in his hands all the time.

    If he's not happy with that situation, Philly would be better off without DSJr.

    How many teams out there would make DSJr happy?
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe the Suns. Magic. Cavs. Not any good teams.
     
  13. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Ben Simmons is just as much a distributor as a scorer. DSJ would easily "get his". Does handling the ball from the inbounds and initiating the offense matter that much?

    The Suns have a max, ball dominant Booker and the Cavs have Sexton as their future PG. So they may be tricky situations for DSJ also.

    Maybe you and HowBoutDemSox are right about DSJ. I haven't really followed his demands that closely, but they seemed aggressive enough to make him leave the team for a few weeks.

    I figured I'd get pushback on my fake deal from the Mavs perspective (who really wants Fultz salary hit?), but if DSJ is this big of a prima donna maybe they don't even get offered that much from the Sixers
     
  14. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think PHI would start DSJ anyway. Simmons, Redick, Butler, Embiid, are entrenched in that starting lineup. What they need is a 4 who is better than Chandler.
     
  15. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Nah, I suggested the C's trade Rozier+ for him but I don't think DSJ would be very happy here either. I guess I viewed Sexton as more of a SG, he's averaging 2.9 assists in 29.8 mpg. His assist rate is 15.7%. The Suns want to use Booker in a James Harden type role but if they back off that a little, I could see them wanting a more traditional PG to play alongside him.

    Whether DSJ is a prima donna or not, I don't know. He's a 2nd year player averaging 27.7 mpg and 10.6 FGA. It's not like he's being totally neglected but he is still not happy and trying to force his way out of Dallas. Last year he was at 29.7 and 14.8 so he's definitely been used less. His usage last year was 28.9%, this year 22.8%.

    Other 2nd year players have seen reduced roles and I haven't heard of them complaining.
     
  16. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    The sixers say no.
    They are trading their starting 4 two (!) First round picks and fultz for
    A bench 3/4 who can't shoot, a wing who can't defend and a PG who defend or shoot well.

    Their issues are shooting, defending guards and depth. This may help depth.
     
  17. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,040
  18. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I looked up the giannis Simmons comparison today to answer some muppet who was quoting the lazy narrative that giannis gets the line and Ben is timid do to the fear of his poor free throws.

    I was a bit surprised to see that they had nearly identical career ftr (Simmons this year vs giannis career)
    This made me look closer and damn are they not more similar even than that.
    https://www.basketball-reference.co...=Ben+Simmons&player_id2=simmobe01&idx=players

    Same trb%, very similar ts% (.585 vs .570), Simmons the better passer in terms of assist rate but Gianni's didn't run the offense early. It's closer in recent years. Giannis a better rim protector and Simmons better on steals, but not as big as the blocks difference.

    It just made me think how the narrative is for Ben vs giannis. And I know giannis has made a leap this year but it is also his sixth year. But they aren't that different really.
     
  19. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Philly is really scary now with the Harris deal. That fills in their biggest weakness positionally, and also adds shooting, which they always need.

    Simmons/Reddick/Butler/Harris/Embiid is the best 5-man unit in the East imo.
     
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    good bye clippers pick.
     
  21. Rustjive

    Rustjive Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not scared. I think Philly to start will have some of the same issues that the Celtics had at the beginning of the season. There's only 1 ball, and you need role players, and a big 4 just doesn't work magically out of the gate. You need someone to be willing to take a lesser or different role - the problem with the Sixers is that JB and Harris are both upcoming free agents and another member of this big 4 is Simmons without the ball. No one is going to be Hayward here and sit on the bench.

    More than anything I think this crystallizes how poorly Philly used their resources coming into the season. I said when they made the Butler trade that unless they thought that THIS was the year they could win (which doesn't make sense because the post-Durant Warriors era may be coming), they were better off just holding onto their trade chips, using their cap space, then trading. The counter at the time was that there was no one they could sign. I find it hard to believe that they couldn't have signed Tobias Harris, who isn't that type of marquee free agent that's going to be extremely specific about where he plays. So unless they win this year, they'll have essentially cost themselves either the pieces they sent Minnesota or the pieces they sent the Clippers (dependent on whichever option Butler's team would've wanted for a sign and trade).
     
  22. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Just postpones it for a year. With LAC likely to make some moves this summer they should make playoffs next year
     
  23. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    On paper I'd agree — you almost couldn't ask for a more perfect fit there than Harris, who's big enough to play PF but also shoots 40%+ from 3 while putting up 20 ppg on .600 TS.

    In practice, who knows. 28 games is not a lot of time to get the chemistry right, and Simmons-Butler-Embiid is a pretty quirky mix of personalities and games. You could say the same about Cousins' arrival in GS, but he had had a full half-season before his debut to hang with the team, scrimmage, and discuss/formulate his role on both ends of the floor; and had a fairly tailor-made role to step into with the departures of Zaza/West/McGee. Harris might have a trickier time figuring how to slot in in Philly, at least initially. On the other hand, combo forwards who can shoot tend to work well in almost any system.

    Mike Scott, a rugged and versatile defender who can also stroke the three, seems like a sneaky-great addition for them, too.

    Man, the second and third rounds of playoffs in the East look to be absolutely brutal right now (read: highly entertaining).
     
  24. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Good point: I forgot it can convey as a 1st next year too. That part is actually looking pretty good with this deal.
     
  25. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The bolded is what I'm thinking. Harris will be fine simply slotting in, because he knows Philly has to offer him a big contract this summer, given what it gave up for him.
     
  26. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit

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    So, what does Philly do to address their biggest issue (bench)?
     
  27. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Their biggest issue was a PF who was better than Chandler. They got that and then some. I imagine they will get a couple shooters in the buyout market just like last year.

    Simmons, Redick, Butler, Harris, Embiid is a fucking sick starting 5. Should be fun (sort of) to watch.
     
  28. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Boban, TJ, Mike Scott, then move Fultz for a vet and hope for some luck with the buy out market. Long term, they really need production out of a couple of Bolden, Zhaire Smith, Patton and Shake Milton on those rookie contracts. There’s not a lot of flexibility there, so not much room for error, but that starting five could be dominant.
     
  29. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    It seems a monster overpay to me tbh.
    Useful cheap rookie, don't care about chandler or Muscala much, a first, two seconds AND the Miami 2021 first (which not adding top 3 protection to is criminal)

    For 3 expiring guys.

    Ugh

    The plan seems clearly to keep everyone from here. They can pay everyone with the bird rights and build from there on depth, and still have Fultz and Zhaire upside wildcards (and bolden).

    I do kind of love that after fighting embiid they can bring in fricking boban to spell him.lol.

    The sixers turned everything into a big 5. Two younger, one aging, one getting older and one peak years. They all kind of fit. 4 play defense above average. Multiple pnr and creation options, multiple shooters, multiple post options.

    It's interesting, it's not how I would have done it but hey. Interesting and fun maybe
     
  30. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I have a hard time seeing Philly ever playing Fultz again. He's all but gone at season's end. That bridge burned down.
     
  31. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    IDK, but you should be happier. There's a reason this thread is silent this morning. Celtic fans would be shitting on this deal if it was "a monster overpay". The Sixers are now a bigger matchup problem for the Celtics.

    Phila has 4 legit All-Stars that they plan on signing long term.
    Tobias Harris (26), Jimmy Butler (29), Embiid (24) and Simmons (22).
    You get them in their prime. They all like to play defense. While the league is going smaller, Philly has 4 athletic monsters, they are going contrarian. That's how their owners/Apollo operate and they are some of the smartest guys around.

    When the playoffs come, Brett Brown can slow the pace down, and shoot 3's with Harris, JJ, or Butler. OR they can back you down/post-up with Embiid/Simmons.
    Sixers also have young/cheap guys in Milton, Zhaire, Patton and Bolden that could evolve into bench pieces.
    Just unload the stench of Markelle Fultz to a tanker for a bench vet and match up salaries.
    This team is a top 2-3 EC team for the next 4 seasons.
     
    #381 benhogan, Feb 6, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  32. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It's an overpay if the Heat picks end up being a top 3 pick.
     
  33. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    As long as they re-up Harris and Butler. If either walks, they no longer have those draft assets to try to find a future star. If both walk, they better pray that Zhaire Smith is legit, and they can either get something for Fultz, or that he can figure out how to contribute.

    I like the gamble, and it had an added benefit of weakening the Celtics' future assets, or their roster and for a potential AD trade.
     
    #383 TripleOT, Feb 6, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  34. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Not sure why either would walk if they are offered max deals and get to play for a winner during their prime years. BUT both walking, I'd say the odds of both of them walking are less than Kyrie walking or Kawhi walking. The Celtics and Raptors are also in hot water if that happens.
     
  35. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    How about if the Eastern Conf continues to not be deep and the Heat pick is 15-18ish?
     
  36. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It's a gamble. I think it's a great deal for both teams.
     
  37. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    agreed. I think there have been a few good deals for several clubs and none seem to be helping the Celtic cause...grrrrrrr
     
  38. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    Fun time for Sixers fans. It will be interesting to see if and how fast they mesh together.
     
  39. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I actually think that this is the endgame of "going small": you want positionless, huge dudes everywhere. The exception to that is Embiid, but even he is mobile and stretchy on both ends (at least for a 7-2 guy). Everything for Philly starts with the fact that Simmons is enormous for his position while still having the skill and mobility of a PG.
     
  40. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    There are multiple ways that this can turn into an overpay. And that is the issue I have with the deal. Harris is a very nice player. But he is expiring, and with all the money available this offseason, it is going to cost a near max to keep him - and perhaps that doesn't even get it done. Could see SAC throwing a max deal at him perhaps. Just seems like they pushed their chips in way too early. They didn't need to go this far in for a run this year.
     
  41. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    yes. big, positionless, skilled, mobile, shooter = the best players

    Hence why I like Horford also playing the 4 for 10-15mpg depending on matchups. I don't like that he has been pigeoned holed strictly into the 5.
    and NO the offense doesn't take a hit if Al moves to the 4, he can shoot over smaller guys or take them down low.
    and YES Baynes or Theis are capable of taking the opposing teams BIG to the perimeter to respect their 3pt shooting.

    The Sixers are a matchup nightmare for the Celtics in the playoffs if Brad tries matching up our current starting group.
     
  42. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Honestly I just haven't seen enough of Harris play. The numbers say he's become such a better player, and a ridiculously good shooter. I mean he averages over 50 from each corner 3.
    I just still think of him too much as the blah Detroit guy I think. He's improved a lot

    As for the price, if they build a championship team obviously worth it but seeing Shamet included really seems a step too far.

    Harris is a great fit, and let's you resign him butler and JJ. But the cost just seems mad for an expiring.
     
  43. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Harris is like the PF version of Kemba Walker.
     
  44. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Ok I'll ask. How would Kemba perform as a 3rd or 4th option? Tobias has had free reign as the Clippers #1 option which is a far different role he'll have in Philly especially coming in on the fly trying to fit in. I surely wouldn't expect anything close to the type of production he's shown in LA. I don't like the fit at all.

    The fun part of this Philly thing is to see how many buyout candidates choose to "ring chase" here. Ellington, Matthews, and Kanter may all be part of their second unit in another week.
     
  45. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    It is a shame they had to trade away Covington in the Butler deal. He is the exact 3 and D guy this team needs
     
  46. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Have to wonder if Fultz makes it past the deadline. I could see someone taking the plunge today.
     
  47. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I was talking more about career arch rather than role. I think Harris would be a far better fit than Kemba to be the 3 or 4 though.
     
  48. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Genius at work...
     
  49. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I mean both woj and Lowe said that before you lol.

    The makeover in the sixers squad has been RAPID

    Where we stand at the moment...

    PG: B. Simmons - TJ
    SG: JJ - J. Simmons - Zhaire
    SF: Butler - Ennis - Korkmaz
    PF: Harris - Scott - Bolden
    C: Embiid - Boban - Amir - Patton

    They should be pushing hard on Ellington and they could clearly use some guard depth from buyouts. But they have improved the starter at 4 and depth at 3/4/5
    But that guard rotation is bad and still no one who can guard little quick dudes.
     
  50. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, and that they're not allowed to trade back for him. Would be a better fit than Harris at 1/3 the upcoming cost.
     

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