Are these type of middles the norm in the legal market? That's legit insane.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
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Yep! And the wild thing is that with a two-game slate today it's going to be a lot more on a day like yesterday.
That's not even talking about the Strus props on DK we talked about yesterday. Incredible. Of course, neither of us can bet at that book, which figures. But still.
How do you screen for them? Are you going game by game, or is there a source that pulls in all of them?
Yeah, I have an aggregator source. Real nice like that. From there, I put in my projections (can be manual or from a larger import source, be it my own or someone else's), and it tells me what the best edges of the day are on props after simulating the base number a few times.
On the plus side, I went 6-0 yesterday (Celtics -2.5, Knicks +8.5 after the 3rd q, Pacers -5.5, Pistons +9.5, Thunder +2.5 & Kings -1.5). On the downside I made tiny tiny bets. Not sure whether to be emboldened or even more cautious. Probably neither.
I really just wanted to ask a strategy question about in-game middles - but then when I was writing it out I'm pretty sure I figured out the answer. I bet the Celtics a day or two ago before the line moved too far, which was pretty good. & it seemed every time the Celtics went on a run, the Knicks would counter with a run of their own. After the 3Q when the Celtics had a 9 point lead, the Knicks were +8.5 & I felt good about that. But I bet half a tiny unit & not a full tiny unit & that felt strategically suboptimal especially as the Knicks immediately went on a 13-2 run. I was thinking taking the juice loss on anything not between Celtics by 3 & Celtics by 8, while winning double if it was in that range, would be the best option...but then while I was writing this out I realized the whole thought process was dumb & flawed & every bet is an individual bet & they should all be sized based on confidence in that specific bet & not on other action, which usually comes up in arguments against hedging if you have to make a suboptimal bet to do it. If I thought the in game was such a great bet, I could have bet many many tiny units because it is a separate transaction from the other bet & should be viewed as such.
I was going to just delete the whole post, but figured I'd leave it in case for some reason this is wrong, or if other people are struggling with the same false dilemma if it's not wrong.
I really just wanted to ask a strategy question about in-game middles - but then when I was writing it out I'm pretty sure I figured out the answer. I bet the Celtics a day or two ago before the line moved too far, which was pretty good. & it seemed every time the Celtics went on a run, the Knicks would counter with a run of their own. After the 3Q when the Celtics had a 9 point lead, the Knicks were +8.5 & I felt good about that. But I bet half a tiny unit & not a full tiny unit & that felt strategically suboptimal especially as the Knicks immediately went on a 13-2 run. I was thinking taking the juice loss on anything not between Celtics by 3 & Celtics by 8, while winning double if it was in that range, would be the best option...but then while I was writing this out I realized the whole thought process was dumb & flawed & every bet is an individual bet & they should all be sized based on confidence in that specific bet & not on other action, which usually comes up in arguments against hedging if you have to make a suboptimal bet to do it. If I thought the in game was such a great bet, I could have bet many many tiny units because it is a separate transaction from the other bet & should be viewed as such.
I was going to just delete the whole post, but figured I'd leave it in case for some reason this is wrong, or if other people are struggling with the same false dilemma if it's not wrong.
I’ve found that in-game lines can be quite juicy. NBA teams go on so many runs that overcoming a 6 point deficit in 4+ minutes probably happens a lot but you could get really good odds betting the losing team. I did that during last year’s playoffs as an emotional hedge against my hatred of the Heat and was sadly rewarded.
Well I’ve more than doubled my initial investment into the DK VIP bonus bet adventure and still have 5 bonus bets left. Full degen mode activated??
DraftKings is very happy to read this post.
By the way they sent me 12 cookies from Last Crumb to celebrate the start of the NBA. My pregnant wife was very pleased…!
I feel neglected. All I got was a measly $5 bonus bet. But hey, I cashed a +300 bet with it!
I have 3 games on my radar today that I feel are mispriced and played some early. I seem to be more confident in the first two with the Celtics he most. I can't imagine this number closing in single digits.
Pistons +4/+139 ML (Pick)
Celtics --8.5/Heat TT Under 104 (Bos -12, TT 99)
Under 226 Rockets/Spurs (223)
I'm a buyer of early season Detroit before market adjusts to them with a heathy Cade. They seem to be priced like last year post-Cade which is strange to me.
Miami is starting and playing Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry big minutes in 2023. This is a lottery/play-in team that is being priced as if Playoff Jimmy is going to be walking through those doors. Strus is a big loss and Vincent's absence will be missed much worse than his numbers in LA this year will indicate. I don't get it but that's a good thing.
Houston has a lot of new pieces, will probably play slower than currently rated, and the Wemby defensive impact didn't show in the Mavs scoring 126 due to Kyrie and Luka doing Kyrie and Luka things.
Pistons +4/+139 ML (Pick)
Celtics --8.5/Heat TT Under 104 (Bos -12, TT 99)
Under 226 Rockets/Spurs (223)
I'm a buyer of early season Detroit before market adjusts to them with a heathy Cade. They seem to be priced like last year post-Cade which is strange to me.
Miami is starting and playing Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry big minutes in 2023. This is a lottery/play-in team that is being priced as if Playoff Jimmy is going to be walking through those doors. Strus is a big loss and Vincent's absence will be missed much worse than his numbers in LA this year will indicate. I don't get it but that's a good thing.
Houston has a lot of new pieces, will probably play slower than currently rated, and the Wemby defensive impact didn't show in the Mavs scoring 126 due to Kyrie and Luka doing Kyrie and Luka things.
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Yeah, Heat under team total was my big bet as soon as it printed. This Celtics defense just looks suffocating and should continue to gel. Fully expect the Celtics to try to make a statement tonight after losing the conference finals last year.
Good call on the Pistons, I wasn't onto them but that makes a lot of intuitive sense.
Good call on the Pistons, I wasn't onto them but that makes a lot of intuitive sense.
I’ve been taking advantage of the DK $10 no sweat bets. Today’s prop:
Cade over 19.5 points
Cade over 4.5 assists
Duren block
Ausar block
Duren over 7.5 reb
+350
The steal/block props are generally hit or miss but I like the odds and you’re always in play needing just 1. With scoring props, if your guy is shooting like shit or it’s a blowout, you’re toast.
Cade over 19.5 points
Cade over 4.5 assists
Duren block
Ausar block
Duren over 7.5 reb
+350
The steal/block props are generally hit or miss but I like the odds and you’re always in play needing just 1. With scoring props, if your guy is shooting like shit or it’s a blowout, you’re toast.
That’s uncorrelated to the point of being inversely so—if you imply as you do to have one player go over on points from one team, as you do, shots and possessions are finite in a given team. Thus, the other player’s opportunities on that same team to shoot and thus make are diminished because of that limited count.
If I had to play that type of parlay it would be Over Jaylen on a bounce back with Under Kristaps off his emotional return to NY game. Let's see how I do!
I would imagine these correlations are baked into the price no?
Sort of yes and no. I think it’s both correlated and anti-correlated. Shots are finite and one player subtracts from another. But also, team stats are correlated and if the team puts up 140 (let’s say the Heat decide not to play defense or the Celtics figure out an offensive scheme that kills them) then everybody scores more, if they only put up 90 then likely everyone is under.
I’m not entirely sure how to untangle the effects of those two things.
I disagree with this as it's based around one teams possessions and shot distribution....not whether the entire team scores a lot of points or not. The premise to my example is that Jaylen will look to be more aggressive and the gameplan should play into this....while Kristaps, who isn't the most naturally aggressive player anyway, has a bit of an exhale game in his level of aggressiveness in shot hunting.
Another slow, half-court slugfest (or blowout). I don't love Miami's style of play for JB to have a big scoring night.If I had to play that type of parlay it would be Over Jaylen on a bounce back with Under Kristaps off his emotional return to NY game. Let's see how I do!
Last season vs. Miami:
3 regular season games: 30.3ppg
7 playoff games: 19ppg
Found a new PPH through buddy and need to "prime" the account while all eyes are on it.
Played Celtics -3.5 (-250) and Celtics -12.5 (+170) on the Alt Lines. He knows I'm from New England so this is a nice opening play as a fake homer square while having numbers I like to boot.
Played Celtics -3.5 (-250) and Celtics -12.5 (+170) on the Alt Lines. He knows I'm from New England so this is a nice opening play as a fake homer square while having numbers I like to boot.
"Playoff Miami" isn't walking through those doors tonight people! And if they do they will be dressed as Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry!"
I didn't play it I was only responding to the conversation about SGP within the same team and was thinking how I like both of those results separately so even better with them correlated.what's the #?
I'll be rooting for you, JB, & the several Board members
I always say that I should commit time to these as there are always a ton of players that I have both over and under valued in their current edition. The debate over some of my player ratings would surely create some "Huh?" like how I have MarJon Beauchamp more than a tick above Khris Middleton today.....so once he begins getting the playing time he deserves he's be a big watch for some props to the Over. Conversely, fading Khris is probably an auto bet until evidence suggests otherwise.
Jaylen +550 as first point scorer on the premise that we look to get him involved early is a nice shot take. Can probably find better number too.
I'd like to add that I'm a complete noob at betting, this is the first one I've made in years, and fully expect to lose $50 on this. Not the end of the world.
Still, paying attention to this thread, I suspect I'll learn a thing or two.
Almost forgot for a second that NBA in-game is different than NFL. Celtics down double digits? No matter they are still-5.5 lol.
Well they were -3. And Heat TT was 110…
o/u was 230…
first half was +200, first quarter was +8.5, first half was +5.
just gotta shorten your horizon a bit. That’s the real mispricing. Busy quarter for me!
Can’t do much when the Heat shot 50% from 3 (and still barely cover the TT…). Also shows how dominant this Celtics team is that they can still win by 8 when the opponent can’t miss.
And our first experiences with OT while on the under. Boooo!
And our first experiences with OT while on the under. Boooo!
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Heat on fire and needed every ounce to cover but the Spurs/Rockets 63-pt 4Q while still being able to stay under with one more basket to avoid OT was the back stabber. Love my reads and ratings so far though.
I don't see any reason to back off my Heat fade on a B2B against one of my buy teams.
* Wolves -4.5 seems like a smash spot to me
I lean Pistons tonight but volatile spot with both teams coming off wins last night in a B2B. They still should not be dogs against a Bulls team off an OT win last night. Was hoping Grizz could get that emotional win last night for a pure fade at Wiz tonight but heard their effort was kinda embarassing and the Nuggets controlled entire game without much resistance. This Grizz team is a mess out of the gate. Lean Wiz.
I don't see any reason to back off my Heat fade on a B2B against one of my buy teams.
* Wolves -4.5 seems like a smash spot to me
I lean Pistons tonight but volatile spot with both teams coming off wins last night in a B2B. They still should not be dogs against a Bulls team off an OT win last night. Was hoping Grizz could get that emotional win last night for a pure fade at Wiz tonight but heard their effort was kinda embarassing and the Nuggets controlled entire game without much resistance. This Grizz team is a mess out of the gate. Lean Wiz.
Basketball gods in midseason form.
That game had an even worse bad beat. Spurs up 2, escapes pressure as Rockets concede in final seconds....when a Spur, not sure who, took two dribbles and tomahawked it to stretch the final margin to 4.
Keldon Johnson. Played bad. Got there (Spurs -3.5).Basketball gods in midseason form.
That game had an even worse bad beat. Spurs up 2, escapes pressure as Rockets concede in final seconds....when a Spur, not sure who, took two dribbles and tomahawked it to stretch the final margin to 4.
I liked this for basketball reasons...If I had to play that type of parlay it would be Over Jaylen on a bounce back with Under Kristaps off his emotional return to NY game. Let's see how I do!
I would imagine these correlations are baked into the price no?
But for anyone else curious, the correlations may or may not be baked into the price. Ideally the book should be doing that but by no means is it assured*, and from there, the prices are going to vary. If it's at all possible for the starting bettor, use multiple books to get the best price.
*Seriously, some of the stuff I've found that the books haven't found as correlated in other sports despite it being very much the case over the years is silly.
I'm not sure this is the right spot for it being early in the season and the Heat were already lacking in experienced NBA rotation players. Having said that, anytime you can grab a 4-pt middle it's going to be a profitable proposition.
I'll be a little more blunt and say that you don't need to middle when you're getting pretty solid CLV like this. I love my middles but this isn't a time I'd have done so. Hope you hit of course. Rooting for y'all.
Yes, even if you're facing me. Provided you know what you're doing, it's worth your win to provide the information so we (the book) can react accordingly.
Appreciate the advice from you both. I would love to get the crew’s broader thoughts on CLV at some point as I feel like I’ve seen some conflicting things on this. I would have thought less relevant when you have change in facts like Butler being announced out but I am clearly not the expert!I'll be a little more blunt and say that you don't need to middle when you're getting pretty solid CLV like this. I love my middles but this isn't a time I'd have done so. Hope you hit of course. Rooting for y'all.
Yes, even if you're facing me. Provided you know what you're doing, it's worth your win to provide the information so we (the book) can react accordingly.
I’m counting this as 4-4 as that’s how I played it (T-Wolves, Det, Wiz, Miami under TT). Love when HRB gets dialed in.
2pm tip-off in Oklahoma City this afternoon and a 230.5 line posted.
Two Nuggets games have gone 226 and 212. Two OKC games have gone 228 and 213.
Not really sure I understand why this line is so high, so I might be missing something. That said, 3 units on the under as it’s still early in the year and we have an early start today.
Two Nuggets games have gone 226 and 212. Two OKC games have gone 228 and 213.
Not really sure I understand why this line is so high, so I might be missing something. That said, 3 units on the under as it’s still early in the year and we have an early start today.
I’m on this as well as Lebron under 21.5 points. He’s had 21 in both games so far, and had to blow through his new “minutes restriction” and play the entire 4Q on a nationally televised game just to get there Thursday . Is he doing that again in a random Sunday evening game? Seems doubtful.
Also on Warriors game under (226.5) and Spurs (229) but both lines have started to reset lower.
Until I mention otherwise these day start times will be auto plays so just watch the schedule. If I actually see a numbers edge aside from the start time I'll include it. Last year I used one site specific to simply auto play these then went on about the rest of my card. Some I would add elsewhere and I'll let you know when this occurs.
I wanted to play Atlanta but this number got absolutely smashed. So aggravated that I didn't get it but I'm passing at 6. My other two are "hold your nose" plays that im sure most won't click but they are Houston and Portland, +5 and +9.5 respectively.
I wanted to play Atlanta but this number got absolutely smashed. So aggravated that I didn't get it but I'm passing at 6. My other two are "hold your nose" plays that im sure most won't click but they are Houston and Portland, +5 and +9.5 respectively.
Yeah, that’s was fun. I think all 3 went about 70 points below.
I’ve also been dabbling with unders in blowout games with about 7-8 min to go. These numbers don’t take into account the last 30-40 seconds which generally consist of the team losing having a bench player throwing up a relatively contested 2 or 3, then the team winning cancelling out the last 20 seconds. Sometimes you get the holy grail where both teams dribble it out. Either way, OT is off the table, teams are quick to pull starters in the early regular season, and you don’t have a ton of scorers on the floor. More work to do on this but anecdotally it seems compelling. Check out the Bucks or Spurs game yesterday as an example.
Thunder got blown out yesterday. I’d avoid them tonight but we’ll wait for the expert to opine.