In the last 36 months this system has developed Xander Mookie Benetendi JBJ 1.0 and 2.0. I still haven't given up on Swihart or EdRo. The system did its job and then some. Any team in baseball would take that type of success rate.
Should Dombrowski Consider EE?
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
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He was exactly age appropriate for Low A and he had a .758 OPS in 27 games after recovering from a broken thumb. He's absolutely expected to stay at SS despite his height and you can bicker about where he asked depending on which publication you want to cite or were he should have been picked, but at worst he was considered a late second early third round pick. He saved them a whopping $100k, so saying he was only taken where he was to save money for Groome is disingenuous. They liked him and nothing can be taken from the only 35 games he was able to play to denigrate his prospect status.
Here is a list of the Red Sox number one draft picks over the years. There are many very good players on this list but there are just about as many who never realized their potential. So my answer to the question should the Red Sox be willing to give up a number 1 pick for a player who would likely hit 40 or so homers and over a 100 RBI for the next several years is a resounding yes. Edwin Encarnacion, I vote yes.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/bos
http://www.espn.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/bos
It isn't necessarily just the pick and the player that comes with it. It's the money allotted to that slot in the draft being lost as well. The first round pick allotment is always the biggest chunk of the pool of money available to the team to sign all their picks in the top 10 rounds. In last year's draft, the #26 pick was worth roughly $2.1M. That could end up being about 25% of their pool. It's nothing to sneeze at for a team that should be trying to utilize the draft as efficiently as it can to restock the farm over the next few years.
That seems to be true for the picks in 1994 and before. After that there's Ellsbury, Daniel Bard's 2010, David Murphy's 2012, and not much else.
If you think their top 10 list is depressing now, wait until Devers, Benintendi and Travis graduate this year. Of course with the nature of prospects, by the time it's July, we could all be talking about Pedro Castellanos or some other guy who isn't really on anyone's radar.
Why so sure about Travis? He's 3rd on the 1B depth chart right now, isn't he? Simultaneous injuries to Hanley/Moreland isn't out of the question and an injury to just one of them might trigger a call up.
Well, he blew out his knee and missed an entire year of development, so even assuming he comes back where he was to start last year - which is doubtful - I think it's a stretch to think he will will be on the major league roster this season, at least long enough to lose his prospect status. He wasn't ready for it before his injury, I'm not sure why one would think he would be after. But sure, he could surprise me.
No one is questioning the talent. But the pipeline needs to keep being rebuild after these deals. That's how you have the ammo to make deals and replace guys once they are developed and hit FA (like an Ellsbury being replaced by a JBJ...eventually).
Plus there's also the tax implications. They affect things like draft pick compensation and international pool $$ (which is very important after what happened in 2016).
And then of course there's this brilliant point.
Man some of those were just bad. and had a pretty good idea they were bad at the time.
Marrero and Johnson were bad.
Was never a fan of Vitek or Brentz either.
Chavis is looking like a guy who's not going to live up to his potential. But man I have to admit I really liked him. Place was a nice HR swing after unexpectedly getting Bard. Those guys can really hit it big, but being so raw they also flame out.
Is it bad that Sele is the best P on that list after 1983?
All great posts, and these are the highlights.
If ever there was a time for the farm to be barren, this is it. There is a four year window where the farm isn't going to be asked to fill many slots on the roster, as there are already a number of cost-controlled options in place already. If another were able to crack the roster (Travis) it would be an embarassment of riches.
However, to bring this back to EE, the reload for that fourth year needs to begin with this draft year; odds are anyone taken this year are going to be the ones in system when that need arises again. Does EE move the needle enough to risk the first round slot money (as mentioned in yet another excellent post upthread) to make it worthwhile?
My own feeling is that he doesn't - the Sox roster already have excellent offense and have much improved pitching and defense. EE would solely be an aging DH and locks the roster, and I far prefer the model where they utilize the DH role as a way of getting guys some time out of the field and still keeping their bats in the lineup.
I'm not entirely sure I agree. There are two pretty significant weak spots in the lineup and sure, two isn't "many" but finding cost controlled options to fill those slots will go a long way to ensuring that we can afford to keep the young guys as they get more expensive.
If Sam Travis can be even a slightly better than average first baseman, and if Rafael Devers can do the same at third, we're better able to keep the other guys here longer.
One or two guys who contribute every year is the goal. That we've kind of shoehorned those guys in over the past three years with--eventually--a pretty high degree of success doesn't mean we don't need to keep things going.
And I don't think Moreland is going to block any half decent alternative even if everyone is healthy. . Farrell was completely non-committal about his playing time when asked.
I'm not even convinced he lasts the year if Travis or even Devers in August forces the issue.
Catcher is a bigger question mark than 3B, from an offense standpoint.
Fortunately, the bar is set much lower.
I don't think it's catcher. I think it's 1B, assuming that Moreland is the primary guy there.
Maybe it's a matter of perspective. I think the Sox will be able to find an acceptable answer at both 1B and DH without EE, through some combination of Hanley, Moreland, Young, and Travis.
At C, there's a huge amount of uncertainty about whether the two good-glove options will be able to hit enough not to be a black hole in the lineup, and we can't say whether Swihart can pitch - and - catch at a high enough level after his ankle injury to provide a viable backstop option, if they can't.
At the same time, it's not like there's a great option for them to get now to solve that. Unless you're a big Wieters fan.
Yup.
Moreland is here for one year. If Travis takes the job after that, it's good. If he doesn't, we have to go buy someone.
There will be multiple options.
Look at this winter.
Some of those guys will probably be back again.
hanley could go back to 1B in a more regular capacity if necessary and get some platoon help at DH.
I dunno. From a pessimistic perspective, some of the B's could all definitely have much worse offensive years than they just had: Benintendi may have the league adjust to him, Bradley was more or less a bit above average minus one incredible streak, Bogaerts had a dreadful second half. Hanley could get hurt, etc. Sandoval might not come back swinging. I don't think they probably should go after EE, but I think between the loss of Ortiz and the chance of some younger players not meeting last year's bar, it might be okay to lower expectations to top 5 offense in the AL rather than top 1 or 2. Thank goodness the pitching is improved (barring injuries). And hey, maybe it'll be more or less the same offense overall, anything can happen.
I think top 5 in baseball (not just the AL) is probably a good guess, with very little chance to be much better than that. Even with the loss of Encarnacion, I don't think the Red Sox are likely to be appreciably better than the Blue Jays on paper, but I don't think the Jays are likely to be much better than the Sox either. I'd take the Astros and Cubs as the cream of the crop with a healthy gap between them and anyone else. After that it's a mishmash of teams who could finish in any order: Colorado, Cleveland, Seattle, Texas, Toronto, Washington, maybe even Detroit, Arizona and Baltimore could all be in the mix for those next few spots with the Red Sox.
The offense shouldn't be a problem next year, but without any more changes, probably won't be anything like we saw last year. The gains on the pitching and defense side will, hopefully, offset that enough.
I think it's reasonable the Sox can get improved offense at LF, 3B, SS and even 1B if Hanley is in the ballpark of his 2nd half all year long.
I think it's also reasonable that JBJ takes a step back, and Pedey is more like 2014-15 Pedey (mostly from getting banged up and being another year older).
It's tough to conceive of Mookie getting better than his MVP caliber year, but he is in theory, just entering his prime. I think catching will stay about the same. Ryan Hanigan was the worst hitter on earth last year which partially offset Leon's insanity, and Swihart could get some AB's in there.
There is, of course, no chance of DH improving.
It's still a pretty great offense, and if X takes another step forward and Pablo approaches his Giants form, it's elite. Plus, a full year of Beni on the bases combined with what they had last year, is also a good thing.
I think it's also reasonable that JBJ takes a step back, and Pedey is more like 2014-15 Pedey (mostly from getting banged up and being another year older).
It's tough to conceive of Mookie getting better than his MVP caliber year, but he is in theory, just entering his prime. I think catching will stay about the same. Ryan Hanigan was the worst hitter on earth last year which partially offset Leon's insanity, and Swihart could get some AB's in there.
There is, of course, no chance of DH improving.
It's still a pretty great offense, and if X takes another step forward and Pablo approaches his Giants form, it's elite. Plus, a full year of Beni on the bases combined with what they had last year, is also a good thing.
He didn't miss "a whole season," he missed a little more than half.
I don't disagree that he may have lingering effects or that he's not ready. Right now though, he's third on the first base depth chart. If both Hanley and Moreland are down at the same time or if Hanley's injured and Moreland can't hit lefties, the Red Sox may have to call him up, ready or not.
Yeah, there will be plenty of options, but those options aren't going to be making the league minimum. Would you rather spend fifteen million on a first base free agent, or on extensions to the kids?
Looks like EE will get a three year deal with an option or a straight up four year deal from the likes of CLE, TEX or OAK.
Would have been a nice piece to have during this Sale window, but I'm fine with utilizing Moreland as a stopgap with potential upside.
Would have been a nice piece to have during this Sale window, but I'm fine with utilizing Moreland as a stopgap with potential upside.
Lets wait and see what all these guys get first. Also I believe some of them are Boras guys, so I'm not holding my breath on getting extensions for them.
This thread is done.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 3m3 minutes ago
Deal is thought to be worth 20M/yr or thereabout.
11 replies 195 retweets 127 likes
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 3m3 minutes ago
Indians win Encarnacion. 3 plus an option.
33 replies 597 retweets 289 likes
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 5m5 minutes ago
Indians get EE
Exactly. You're unlikely to be able to pay all of them if things play out well in the next few years.
There is a lack of depth at 1B and 3B. An injury to Hanley or Moreland makes Chris Young/Brock Holt the best option for DH. An injury or nonperformance by Panda means 3B becomes an even bigger shitshow than last year. They need to sign another corner infield/DH option. Don't waste the first year of Chris Sale by skimping on a skill that is abundantly available on the free agent market. Trumbo at the top end, Napoli in the mid-range, Valvuena also in the mid range would give you coverage at 3B and a DH against righties (probably Panda w/Valbuena at 3B) if Hanley or Moreland goes down.
I'm guessing if they sign anyone, he will have the ability to play 3b and probably hit RH. I wonder if some of these guys in the Pedro Alvarez category are stuck taking minor league deals. If they are, one of them would be a perfect pick up.
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