The debate comes down to this:
- If Leon improves Sale's performance...how does that compare to the offense/defense delta with Vazquez? This is independent of pitch calling.
- Does Leon improve the outcome of any other pitchers? If so, should that factor in?
- If Leon is brought up, one of Swihart or Vazquez needs to be traded or released (no options). The likely answer is keep Swihart because of his utility at the plate and as a late inning offensive substitute. What's the ramification of losing Vazquez (i.e., what's his trade value)
- If a trade is made, who is the emergency catcher in the system that gets called up if there's an injury?
There's some real subtlety in this. For all we know, the comfort with any specific catcher could be a mental thing - which still has theoretical impact. I don't recall a lot of questioning about the Lester/Ross relationship (Chicago certainly believed it). I'm willing to concede that it's a thing.
On the other hand, Ross was exponentially better at the plate than 2018 Leon.
I believe that if a specific catcher evidently improves a staff's performance, that ability supersedes the difference between hitting, say, .200 versus .250. I want to hear more expert opinions from people on the site.
The comfort with any catcher is ABSOLUTELY a mental thing. We're talking about professional pitchers who got to the level they are at pitching to dozens of different catchers along the way. If they are so reliant on one specific catcher for success, I think it's fair to question whether they belong in the major leagues at all.
Sale, in his MLB career, has thrown to 11 catchers in total. Four of them have caught more than 100 innings for him: Tyler Flowers, Sandy Leon, AJ Pierzynski, and Alex Avila. Here's what he's done with each of them behind the plate...
Flowers 552 IP, 5.41 K/BB, 3.02 ERA, .616 OPS
Leon 319.1 IP, 7.76 K/BB, 2.42 ERA, .561 OPS
Pierzynski 225.2, 3.90 K/BB, 2.51 ERA, .622 OPS
Avila 112.1, 7.25 K/BB, 3.53 ERA, .680 OPS
The next three in descending order of innings...
Dioner Navarro 96.2 IP, 3.48 K/BB, 2.98 ERA, .632 OPS
Josh Phegley 88.1 IP, 4.50 K/BB, 3.36 ERA, .725 OPS
Vazquez 66 IP, 3.79 K/BB, 4.50 ERA, .711 OPS
My bet is that if Vazquez were given the number of innings Pierzynski had with Sale, let alone Leon or Flowers, Sale's numbers would normalize and be right in line with those guys. In other words, Vazquez's stats are a bit skewed from small sample size and continued work with Sale and developing better chemistry and rhythm would probably leave them in as good a position as panicking and bringing back Leon at this point.
IMO, Sale's messed up beyond what the catcher's influence can quickly fix. He's got mechanical and mental fixes to make that shouldn't depend at all on who's behind the plate.