Confusing to say this deal doesn’t have a ton of upside when his most recent performance is literally bursting with upside.
I don’t have a ton of faith he will be that good over the next 2 years but this deal makes a sense to me if you’re still trying to contend and build a legit bullpen for 2023.
Option 2, lots of low probability fliers, is not what a team like the Red Sox should be doing exclusively,
There isnt a ton of upside because they are paying him to be close to what he produced last year so you're already mostly buying into him being at least a very good reliever. For an exec who seems obsessed with excess value elsewhere in his contracts its just weird. I hope it works, but finding potential upside in a deal that is paying a non elite reliever who generally pitches 40-50 innings $9M is pretty tough.
I still dont understand why the options are Chris Martin or random dart throws. There are in fact a lot of free agent pitchers who are not Martin and are not $2M lotto tickets.
Joely Rodriguez and Chris Martin last year combined for 106.1 innings at a 2.68 FIP, and cost $10.25M (and two roster spots) in 2023.
Liam Hendriks threw 57 innings at 2.68 FIP, costing $18M aav. Rafael Montero threw 68 innings at a 2.64 FIP clip, and costs $11.5M.
I don't mean to frame this like cost-efficiency is some game we need to win, but I think Bloom did well here. Joely Rodriguez and Chris Martin are not household names and were on no one's radar, but adding 110~ elite relief innings innings for $10M — less than 10 percent of our spending power this offseason — seems sharp to me.
I agree with you that these moves probably don't make sense unless you're contending, though either could conceivably be flipped if it comes to that.
Sure, if these guys are actually elite, it would work great. Joely Rodriguez was just non-tendered by the Mets. Chris Martin has one 25 inning stretch and his 19 inning COVID shoretend season in his career where he was elite (with another very good 2019 season). He wasn't good in either 2018 or 2021 or his stint with the Cubs in 2022. There's a lot of noise in reliever performance so splitting it into even smaller samples (e.g., COVID shortened season and his Dodger's performance) starts to get really hard to find true meaning. Did he figure something out post trade deadline or did he just go on a run.
I would assume (though obviously cannot confirm) that the Sox have looked at some underlying metrics that suggest that there is something beyond pure variance that can account for his improved results, similar to Wacha last year. To be honest, I am generally pretty wary of top-line relievers; I feel like with relievers the range of possible performance from one season to the next (and within the season) that even the top notch guys carry a lot of risk. Edwin Diaz is a great example: in his last 3 non-Covid seasons he has been replacement level, very good and elite. Ideally you'll catch a guy before he breaks out, but then...you wind up with a terrible bullpen if you are planning on those guys to figure something out and they don't, as we've seen. Martin's performances are unlikely to feel like a rush of blood to the head, but he's a decent bet to be at least a solid player, and that makes me feel a bit happier in my place.
This is a good reason to be very cautious of a single half season that is completely different than the rest of a player's career. As for Diaz, he's been an elite reliever pretty much ever year of his career outside of 2019.
This is simply not an accurate characterization of Chris Martin's post-Japan career. First of all, this is a guy who signed with Atlanta for 2/14 after putting up 97 IP of 3.88 ERA (and a 102/10 K/BB) from 2018-2019. He was clearly recognized as, and paid as, a top set up caliber reliever. He performed at that level in 2020, with a 1.00 ERA over 18 IP with a 20/3 K/BB. Then in 2021 he had his worst year post-Japan, putting up a 3.95 ERA and a mere 33/6 K/BB. Last year he basically performed the same as he did in 2019-2020. He's been a good, setup caliber reliever three of the past four years, and he's paid accordingly.
You're making my point for me. Hes had two very small sample size driven good years - the COVID shortened season and his half season in LA. Other than that hes a goodish/solid average reliever. The last team who bought into him (and for who he had the great COVID shortened year) let him walk for $2.5M. There is a lot of variability in relievers and judging them on 20 inning samples is inane. I dont think thats the profile of a top set up man at all. Hes pitched like that half the time since hes been back the other half hes been a guy who you dont want to be putting in any high leverage situations. He's also a 37 year-old to be.
Since hes been back from Japan he was a bit above league average in both 2018 and 2021. He was league average with the Cubs in 2022 after signing for almost nothing. Do I think hes going to be terrible? No, but I also dont think there's much upside given the pricing basically assumes he can be a 130+ ERA+ type guy and theres meaningful Diekman (not that hed have the same issues as Diekman, but just the general concept of a reliever who no one really wants touching high lev scenarios) type downside where we're wondering in July what the hell to do with him.
In the end it seems like most have a different reaction and view of Martin as a player, which is fine - that gap isnt going to be bridged until he actually performs (which I hope he proves me wrong). It isnt unreasonable though to question why this deal makes sense.