Signing the guy who led to Duran's most embarrassing moment just makes it hurt a bit moreI highly doubt you'll see Duran again play CF for the Sawx.
Why wouldn't it be?Umm...Tapia is both bad at offense & defense. Are we sure this is even a major league contract?
The part where he is both bad on offense & defense? He's 2 years older than Verdugo & both worse on offense & defense. He's coming off a 0.3 fWAR season in 433 PAs (despite being gifted a free grand slam) & his career best season is 0.7 fWAR.Why wouldn't it be?
Padres seems most logical to me but idk? Braves, Twins, Rangers seem possible. Royals would be funny.That's what I'm thinking ... but where?
It’s possible but at 28 I’d think he might be able to do better?Umm...Tapia is both bad at offense & defense. Are we sure this is even a major league contract?
He had a 93 wRC+ against righties (78 against lefties). He's not some awesome platoon guy. He turns 29 next month, never walks (like ever), chases everything, making contact often but weakly, is in the 10th percentile in outfield jump & just generally isn't someone I would want on my MLB team unless they can figure something major out to fix his approach.Padres seems most logical to me but idk? Braves, Twins, Rangers seem possible. Royals would be funny.
It’s possible but at 28 I’d think he might be able to do better?
If the outfield is something like Yoshida | Kiké | Duvall/Tapia, with Kim at short and Arroyo and Wendle at 2B, with Kiké cycling through the INF and Refsnyder the OF, that seems like a good fix.
Trade Verdugo, Pivetta and Dalbec for Kim? Duran for Wendle?
Yeah, I’m not a big fan of the guy. I think you’re right that Duvall/Ref would be better suited to take those PAs rather than a strict platoon with Tapia taking the strong half. The equation could be more that Refsnyder and/or Duvall could replace Verdugo’s production?He had a 93 wRC+ against righties (78 against lefties). He's not some awesome platoon guy. He turns 29 next month, never walks (like ever), chases everything, making contact often but weakly, is in the 10th percentile in outfield jump & just generally isn't someone I would want on my MLB team unless they can figure something major out to fix his approach.
But we're hoping he gets better at 29 so we can move off Verdugo who doesn't turn 27 until May & who has put up 7.2 fWAR in the last 4 seasons compared to 1.5 for Tapia? I don't see it at all (bWAR is even worse - 8.5 to 1.5).
But I'll be patient & see how it all plays out.
Seems like small sample size stuff as his jumps are bad & defense was pretty poor in right.Yeah, I’m not a big fan of the guy. I think you’re right that Duvall/Ref would be better suited to take those PAs rather than a strict platoon with Tapia taking the strong half. The equation could be more that Refsnyder and/or Duvall could replace Verdugo’s production?
OTOH, Tapia’s may be okay though. His CF work has graded out as +5 OAA/+3 DRS in 439 innings, most of them last year. He makes a ton of contact, runs very well and can steal a base or two. With Story out, he would immediately be the team’s biggest stolen base threat.
Still could totally be a MiLB contract. But I’d think the Pirates or Reds or something would give a guy like this a full-time job.
Ting.Uh... this has to be a minor league deal, right?
That's one too many outfielders. Verdugo would see significantly reduced playing time. Trading him seems to make more sense.Cotillo playing the numbers game
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1615945734867783680?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
So, he thinks with 4 non-pitcher reserve spots on the everyday roster that 2 of them would go to outfielders ... leaving a backup catcher and an extra infielder for the other two. Seems a tad outfield heavy to me, but I suppose it's possible
How does it make sense to trade your best outfielder and replace him with worse players? This signing seems fine for minor league depth, but the lineup is much better with Yoshida, Duvall, and Verdugo in the outfield with Hernandez at short than Yoshida, Hernandez, Duvall/Tapia in the outfield and someone like Kim at short. You'd have to really believe in the value of defense to even that out.That's one too many outfielders. Verdugo would see significantly reduced playing time. Trading him seems to make more sense.
Pivetta has had significant periods of excellent starts. If he can somehow turn a few of the "bad Pivetta" starts into "great Pivetta" starts every year, he would easily be a 3 instead of a 5-6 in the rotation.If we're going to compete in '23, I'd think the eggs should probably be in someone's basket besides Pivetta's. We've got six starters (Sale, Bello, Whitlock, Paxton, Kluber and Houck) who all project better than Nick this year, and five others with starter upside that it could greatly benefit future teams if we found innings for this year (Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy, Walter).
You're not going to QO Pivetta two years from now. He's a debatable non-tender candidate in his arb3 season in 2024 without significant improvement, and I don't see any projections who like him to improve. I'd say trade him now while we have the depth, and while he has two years of controllable league-average innings.
I actually think Pivetta makes a ton of sense in a move with San Diego. Back end rotation is one of their bigger flaws.Pivetta has had significant periods of excellent starts. If he can somehow turn a few of the "bad Pivetta" starts into "great Pivetta" starts every year, he would easily be a 3 instead of a 5-6 in the rotation.
His first five starts resulted in 20.2 innings and 18 earned runs (7.84 era) After that, 159 innings with 73 earned runs (4.3 era) for the rest of the season. He also immediately after his terrible start to the season had a stretch of 6 starts, 41 innings and 6 earned runs (1.32 era).
As it is, he was worth 2.6 bWAR last year. I think he'll add just a touch more consistency this year and maybe be worth 3+ WAR.
Considering the entire rotation besides Pivetta is one big question mark, I think Pivetta is more valuable to the Sox than any other team in baseball and will this for the Sox this season, and do it well.
Calling him "our best outfielder" seems charitable to Verdugo, but he's a decent player. In his 25-26 seasons, he's put up a 105 wRC+, which is nothing special. But it looks like he's been dinged a bit hitting in Fenway, which diminishes his power. He's "lost" about 9-10 HRs over the last two years to park dimensions, so it's reasonable to think he's better than he's shown.How does it make sense to trade your best outfielder and replace him with worse players? This signing seems fine for minor league depth, but the lineup is much better with Yoshida, Duvall, and Verdugo in the outfield with Hernandez at short than Yoshida, Hernandez, Duvall/Tapia in the outfield and someone like Kim at short. You'd have to really believe in the value of defense to even that out.
Then again, if not him ... who?Calling him "our best outfielder" seems charitable to Verdugo, but he's a decent player.
And Houck. I think he makes even more sense for SD, as he can be moved to the bullpen and be a weapon there if they're happy with 2 of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Adrian Morejon in the rotation. Similar to how they used Nick Martinez last year. And BTV has a trade of Houck for Kim nearly dead even. He'd also offer them a cost-controlled SP next year when Snell and Darvish are free agents and Machado likely opting out.I actually think Pivetta makes a ton of sense in a move with San Diego. Back end rotation is one of their bigger flaws.
We don't have much MLB-ready outfield depth in the minors. Tapia and Greg Allen fill that need.Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
(apologies if this has already been posted here, it's hard to keep track, which is why I made this post in the first place.)As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.
They are signing average major league players to minor league contracts so that if necessary they can have replacement level players rather than sub-replacement level players?Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
I agree but it's too late for that.It'd be great if people could put their made-up trade ideas in this thread:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/gitter-done-theo-lets-put-all-our-dumb-i-mean-brilliant-trade-suggestions-in-this-thread.37918/
Instead of in the "Rumors" thread.
Everyone loves to suggest trades, and that's great, but seems to me a fan-suggested trade idea is quite different than a rumored trade or signing.
Since this is a rumors thread, I'll include one in this post:
Red Sox have recieved "significant" trade interest in Tanner Houck:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-trade-rumors-tanner-houck.html
(apologies if this has already been posted here, it's hard to keep track, which is why I made this post in the first place.)
So who's better? Maybe Yoshida, but we don't have evidence of that. Verdugo is a better than average hitter who was decent defensively other than last year. And he's going to be 27 versus Refsnyder who will be 32.Calling him "our best outfielder" seems charitable to Verdugo, but he's a decent player. In his 25-26 seasons, he's put up a 105 wRC+, which is nothing special. But it looks like he's been dinged a bit hitting in Fenway, which diminishes his power. He's "lost" about 9-10 HRs over the last two years to park dimensions, so it's reasonable to think he's better than he's shown.
We'll see what the final configuration is but I'd be comfortable with some strategic deployment of Duvall/Refsnyder/Tapia putting up comparable value to Verdugo in right field. Those three guys combined hit .255/.304/.408 last year (which includes Duvall playing through a wrist injury), compared with Verdugo who hit .280/.328/.405.
Again, my personal theory is that they want to see if Refsnyder can do in 350-400 PAs what he did in 175 last year.
I know Pittsburgh was interested in top of the rotation pitching prospects for Reynolds, and Bello would be an absolute non-starter in trade discussions as far as I'm concerned, however...View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1616034787386396675?s=20&t=J3FsfUT2PzTOd9dovoEiSg
The Casas bit is a little interesting but could mean anything.
Chaim: So… Bryan Reynolds?
Cherington: We like Casas, Bello, and Bleis.
Chaim: Cool. Keep in touch.
Bingo. Reynolds is a very good player. He's not the guy that this team should be trading two of their top prospects for, though. Not at this stage in the team's build, anyway. It's robbing Peter (1B) to pay Paul (OF). I don't think it's a net gain for the 2023 or 2024 seasons. If the idea is he's a good fit for the 2025+ "window", I'd rather wait it out and snag him in free agency or trade for his last year or two of pre-arb control when the acquisition cost might be lower and the prospect well is hopefully a bit deeper.Casas and Bleis for Reynolds? Hell to the no.
Amen to that!Casas and Bleis for Reynolds? Hell to the no.
Oh.Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
Exactly. He'd be playing RF alongside either Hernandez / Rafaela.Where are you playing Reynolds if you get him? He had the worst DRS number of any CF last year, RF maybe?
https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Fair enough, but my counter point to that would be if Casas (as a top prospect) has such a glaring hole that we're already talking about needing Bobby Dalbec around to platoon for him at a position that is not a high defensive value, maybe that is a good time to sell high on that prospect if you can.Bingo. Reynolds is a very good player. He's not the guy that this team should be trading two of their top prospects for, though. Not at this stage in the team's build, anyway. It's robbing Peter (1B) to pay Paul (OF). I don't think it's a net gain for the 2023 or 2024 seasons. If the idea is he's a good fit for the 2025+ "window", I'd rather wait it out and snag him in free agency or trade for his last year or two of pre-arb control when the acquisition cost might be lower and the prospect well is hopefully a bit deeper.
I’m not worried about Casas vs. southpaws. Left-handed hitters with excellent plate discipline like him can still be valuable against them even with neutralized slugging numbers because the OBP is just so useful. Kyle Schwarber is another guy like this.Exactly. He'd be playing RF alongside either Hernandez / Rafaela.
Fair enough, but my counter point to that would be if Casas (as a top prospect) has such a glaring hole that we're already talking about needing Bobby Dalbec around to platoon for him at a position that is not a high defensive value, maybe that is a good time to sell high on that prospect if you can.
This isn't meant as a "dump Casas" post, more that I think Reynolds is a really good player whom would be even better in a hitter's park away from Pittsburgh. Of other names we've been tied to this off-season or even discussed on these threads (Lopez, TRogers, Wendle, Rojas, Kim, Arraez, Adames and Yelich) there is no way I'm trading Casas for any of them.
Offensively, Reynolds is a good bit better than Bogaerts in terms of value (Reynolds is a career 126 wRC+ / 127 OPS+ player), Bogaerts is at 118 wRC+ and 117 OPS+. I think he'd be a core bat that you could bank on for the next 8 years, and I think we desperately need that.
If someone thinks that there is something about Casas which means he's going to improve fundamentally on his lack of ability to hit LHP in the majors that he wasn't able to do in the high minors, then of course you keep him. But Reynolds doesn't exhibit that kind of split.
Again, I'm not saying "dump Casas", far from it. But if you could land (and in theory) extend a 28 year old with that profile at the expense of a prospect whom - at least to this point - has demonstrated no ability to hit same handed pitching at the AA, AAA or (small sample, obviously) major league level, I'd do it. This is more a "I think Reynolds is really good" move than a knock on Casas, to be clear.
I'm not sure what it means exactly (if anything), but statcast has Fenway suppressing 25% of his HR last year.This isn't meant as a "dump Casas" post, more that I think Reynolds is a really good player whom would be even better in a hitter's park away from Pittsburgh.
Schwarber was actually a player I looked up as a hopeful comp on Casas before posting, in that he too has a profile of plus discipline but with a fairly large split between opposite handed and same handed pitching.I’m not worried about Casas vs. southpaws. Left-handed hitters with excellent plate discipline like him can still be valuable against them even with neutralized slugging numbers because the OBP is just so useful. Kyle Schwarber is another guy like this.
Casas walked in 24% of his 25 PAs against lefties last year. SSS, but if he can do half that rate, he’ll be fine. I think the shift ban probably gives him back another 10 points of batting average. We’ll see.
I wouldn't trade either of them for Reynolds I don't think. If I was going to trade one of them, it would be Casas, though.Casas and Bleis for Reynolds? Hell to the no.
The formatting of my post got all messed up, so I'll just post the links & a couple summary stats...but Schwarber was awful in his 1st ML season at age 22 against lefties & crushed righties, while Casas was pretty good against righties & adequate against lefties in a smaller sample size (due to the fact Casas got injured that season, while Schwarber missed almost his entire 2nd season due to injury).Schwarber was actually a player I looked up as a hopeful comp on Casas before posting, in that he too has a profile of plus discipline but with a fairly large split between opposite handed and same handed pitching.
However Schwarber was an absolute monster in his exposure to advanced minor league pitching with a .320/.438/.579/1.017 line in AA and .337/432/.663/1.096 line in AAA as opposed to .284/.395/.484/.879 lime AA and .269/.382/.482/.863 line in AAA.
Obviously there is the difference in leagues and venues, especially with Schwarber playing in the PCL - and the difference in type of ball between 2015 vs 2021 and 2022. Even so, those stats against advanced minor league pitching give a fairly significant edge to Schwarber.
Again, I like Casas, and by and large I don’t think trading him would be wise. I just happen to value Reynolds more than others seem to, so it’s more an “I really like Reynolds“ position.
To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.Time and time again people fail to properly discount Casas age on this message board.
He’s a child who has a background in changing his approach and studying hitting. He will hit lefties.
He had a .197 batting average. If that's a metric that still means something to people in today's day & age, it makes sense. But it's kind of silly.To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.
He couldn't hit lefties in the minors, either. He might figure it out, but his inability to do it in the majors isn't indicative of some big gap between leagues.To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.
Honestly, the fact that he on-based over .350 while not cracking the mendoza line makes me more excited about his future.He had a .197 batting average. If that's a metric that still means something to people in today's day & age, it makes sense. But it's kind of silly.