Red Sox Deadline Discussion
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Adrian's Dome said:
We are going to need a starter and back up. Basically one of Vasquez or Swihart and one of Lavarnway or Butler.
Once again there only so many positions on a team also only so many players are actually going to pan out.
TomRicardo said:
Absolutely true, but first off, Lavarnway probably isn't on the radar there any longer, and I'd rather take my shot with two players at an important position than one, especially given that catchers develop later on average. Best case scenario, they both push the issue, and that's a problem teams would love to have.
Yeah, judging from the Cubs boards I read, Samardzija is going to have higher asking price than even two of those pitchers and Vazquez/Swihart. They won't even talk to the Blue Jays without Sanchez and Stroman both being involved; Theo and Hoyer are looking for at least two high-caliber, MLB ready prospects and then some high risk/high reward flyers as well.
Also Samardjiza gave up 8 runs in 3 innings today in Milwaukee, but he's been great, so it's probably just one of those days.
Also Samardjiza gave up 8 runs in 3 innings today in Milwaukee, but he's been great, so it's probably just one of those days.
McAdam says the Phillies have been scouting the Red Sox for the last 5 series. But, when he talked to people in the organization they didn't know why they were even here. Says the two clubs don't match up in terms of needs.
The Sox don't need Mayberry. If they are acquiring big league help it's basically gotta be Marlon Byrd in the "perhaps reasonably priced rental upgrade."
But if the Phillies are starting the scouting/shopping, you have to wonder what they might be thinking.
But if the Phillies are starting the scouting/shopping, you have to wonder what they might be thinking.
If the rumor is the Phillies are scouting the Red Sox (I assume that means the big club, not their minor league affiliates), then why is the assumption that the Red Sox are the ones who are going to be upgrading the roster? It would seem to me that the Phillies are looking for upgrades to their big league roster if they're watching the Red Sox. If they were looking to shed a player or two for prospects, it would stand to reason they'd be scouting at Pawtucket, Portland, Salem, etc.
MakMan44 said:
Because Byrd has played RF and CF in Fenway, has been a damn good player outside of 2012, and Mayberry is riding an unsustainable increase in his ISO that looks due for a major step back?
If there is a reason to believe that he will keep his ISO above .200 then sure, go after Mayberry. But if there is that, why would the Phillies trade him for less than Byrd?
That is the point McAdam brought up. They should be watching Portland, Pawtucket, and Greenville if they want a prospects for big league player trade. Maybe they're just doing due diligence, but it seems odd they'd have a scout or 2 on the Red Sox for what amounts to 3 weeks straight.Red(s)HawksFan said:
Mayberry and Byrd are basically the same player. I wouldn't want either one facing RHP too often. Byrd has a wRC+ off 100 and an OPS+ of 104 against righties. He's basically league average. He's also striking out nearly 29% of the time against and will cost 8 million dollars next season.smastroyin said:
If you look at their splits too, it's a lot more likely that Mayberry keeps up his hammering of LHP too. Byrd is striking out more than 30% of the time against them and he has a BABIP nearing .400. Conversely, Mayberry is walking more than he's striking out and his BABIP is under .300.
Byrd also has a LD% and HR/FB% nearing 30 compared to Mayberry who's LD% is 23 and HR/FB% is 20. Everything about Byrd screams luck to me and I'm interested in paying him next season nor giving up anyone to acquire him
To answer your specific question, Mayberry has an ISO over 200 every single year of his career against LHP. Yes, I think he keeps it above that line this season too.
You are talking about percentages when Mayberry has 64 plate appearances. I'll leave it to you to figure out how much stock I would put in component statistics based off of that number of PA when they are not in line with his overall career.
One wacky thought I had, BTW, was maybe the Phillies will propose a swap of struggling young OF - Dominic Brown for JBJ. I wouldn't do it, I'm just wondering if the Phillies will bring it up, since Art Howe seems to value Brown as much as I value gum on my shoe.
One wacky thought I had, BTW, was maybe the Phillies will propose a swap of struggling young OF - Dominic Brown for JBJ. I wouldn't do it, I'm just wondering if the Phillies will bring it up, since Art Howe seems to value Brown as much as I value gum on my shoe.
What's out of line with his career numbers against LHP besides his BB%? Yes, all of his numbers are a little high but not wildly so. Last year looks more like an outlier than this season.smastroyin said:
I would expect his OBP/SLG to come down but I don't buy that he'd regress so much that we should be looking at Marlon Byrd over him.
MakMan44 said:
He's hitting FB at a much higher rate than normal and his HR/FB is also up. His ISO is the highest it has been in his entire professional career. Turn 2 of the HR into lazy fly balls and he is back to being a pedestrian slugger. His walk rate is double his normal rate and his K rate is down from well established levels. In 64 PA this could represent real improvement but it is just as easily (and most often) a little hot streak.
If it is real improvement, due to the same contract you want to avoid, you would think the Phillies would be looking for more in terms of prospects if they were to trade Mayberry. Even if we assume they are equivalent players, I would rather pay more dollars and less prospects.
Again, I think those are all likely to regress. Just not to the degree that I would expect Byrd's to. Coupling that with 8 million next year and my assumption that Byrd will cost more than Mayberry, I'd rather have Mayberry.smastroyin said:
EDIT: Also, I still think both of them are redundant with Gomes in the fold.
I would assume the Phils will be open for business very soon along with the Cubs, Padres and possibly the Reds. Those are 4 teams to watch for.
This reminds me of a friend of mine. He's a Mets fan and a while back the Mets traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano (which was a terrible trade for New York.) I was making fun of this, and he compared Zambrano to Randy Johnson. They actually were pretty similar to a point... but I think we can all agree that Johnson made a HUGE leap in around 1993. He's not a good comparison to anyone because he improved remarkably in his late 20's. That's pretty rare.DrewDawg said:
The K numbers for Johnson are also far more impressive given their respective eras. There are currently more strikeouts per 9 IP than ever before, and by a lot - 7.8 / 9 so far this year league-wide. When Unit was breaking in the league K rate was below 6 per 9 IP.BosRedSox5 said:
Johnson always struck a ton of guys out, his problem early on was control as we know. In 1991 at age 27 he struck out 10.2/9 IP which was second in the AL to Ryan. Clemens was third all the way down at 8.0 K/9. When he dropped his BB rate from 5-6 / 9 IP to a more normal 3 is when he took off as a HoF pitcher. Samardzija's K rate through the same age is comparable but when it's adjusted for the league rate it's just good, not elite.
Puffy said:
They are probably just preparing for the possibility that the team with the third worst winning percentage in the American League decides they are sellers in early July.
Corsi said:
Deadline buyers scout big league teams. Deadline sellers scout minor league teams. Unless you mean Gomes is going to Philly, I don't expect he and Marlon Byrd are likely to be teammates this year.
PHL is in desperate need for middle relief. Like, there middle relief is akin to a lineup of 9 Bradley Jrs. bad.
Just remember the Imperial BradleyJr is about a 5th more BradleyJr than the American measurement.doc said:
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 2m
Ben Cherington told us on #InsidePitch XM89 that if they were to add a piece between now and the trade deadline it would be an outfielder
Ben Cherington told us on #InsidePitch XM89 that if they were to add a piece between now and the trade deadline it would be an outfielder
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 13s
Lots of scouts at Sox-Os game. Cards, white sox,blue jays, brewers, marlins, phillies, padres, angels here in full force.
Lots of scouts at Sox-Os game. Cards, white sox,blue jays, brewers, marlins, phillies, padres, angels here in full force.
Hee Sox Choi said:
Yeah, him too.
Before you look outside the organization you're going to want to look at all these guys over a long enough stretch to make it not ridiculous and I'm pretty sure there aren't enough games left in the season to look at them all unless Lester, Lackey, and Peavy also go on the DL and stay there for the whole season.