Well, I have always been fascinated with the prospect of acquiring Headley. His potential when healthy, versatility (SH, 3B, LF, or moved to 1B in the future), and desire to play for a winning organization should all add to positive factors. Besides, who better to pursue?BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Red Sox Deadline Discussion
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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Headley, like Adrian Beltre, is a player whose performance has to be translated because he has played in an awesomely shitty hitter's park. Don't look at the OPS. Look at the OPS+: 114 for his career. That's almost as good as Pedroia (116). He's not a great hitter, but he's a good one, with a good approach, and also a solid defensive 3B.
Whether he expects a big contract or not is beside the point from the Sox' POV; we should assume we're not going to sign him. This probably means that we won't want to give up as much for him as SD will expect. But it's worth exploring.
I thnk it is great to have a guy "looking for a big contract." Take their contract year over-play and say goodbye when they are looking for the over-pay.
The Padres need a 1B pretty badly (their de facto starter has a .530 OPS). So I'd start with Carp, and then look to add a low-end prospect.
If all it took was Carp and a low-end prospect, I think we'd definitely trade for Headley. I think that's very insufficient even if Headley is struggling at the moment. Let's assume we get Headley, does that mean we give up on WMB? Napoli is at 1B so I doubt there's any room to rotate the infield. If we're going to trade any prospects then we might as well see what the chances are of landing Stanton. Young, impact bat. It seriously feels like the right time to do it. Headley is a solid player but I'm not willing to give up good prospects for a player who's already 30 years old.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I agree with you on this. Headly is a decent player, but not a star, and in addition to the stats that back that up, the eyeball scouting seeing a lot of him here in San Diego shows very little evidence that he is poised to prove the stats wrong and return to his fluke season performance.
As for the Rockies, I don't think they realistically view Morneau/Cuddyer as a platoon at 1B/PH solution with Cargo/Blackmon in the outfield, so they really do have an extra piece to move. And Cuddyer really doesn't perform as a decent corner outfielder anymore, so unless the NL West suddenly adopts the DH or someone gets injured, they have too many players for an efficient allocation of resources and have to move someone.
And if the Red Sox don't get him, the Yankees might. What about Nava and choice of De La Rosa/Ranaudo for Headley? Would they bite? Does Middlebrooks still have an option? If so, they could send him down and have him play a lot of 1B and some 2B so that he'd be a better option as a utility infielder next year.
koufax37 said:
You don't need every player to be a star. If Will Middlebrooks is what he has been so far this season, upgrading to a decent non star player would be a pretty big upgrade. If it's combined with JBJ coming around with the bat you'd have almost entirely solved the offensive problem.
Rasputin said:
Absolutely. However he is also 30, a 115ish OPS+ hitter over his career possibly expecting a little less than that moving forward, and has acquisition cost plus higher salary needs.
With Headly off to a slower start than WMB, I'm still not convinced he will be a more valuable player than WMB in 2014, and the probability and likely degree of any advantage seems small enough to me to not make his acquisition an ideal solution. I would certainly talk to the Padres on him and any player who can improve our roster however slightly, but I don't see a really good value fit with on the upside is likely a slight upgrade, and on the downside is actually a downgrade (because I still see WMB as a 30 HR .260/.330/.480 potential).
What acquisition cost? We just locked that guy up through 2021.koufax37 said:
Oh, wait, you're still talking about Headley....
Savin Hillbilly said:
A valid point. Even without his outlier year, he is a solid baseball player, and despite park effects already factored in, could likely benefit from a Petco+NL West to Fenway+AL East change of scenery.
Depending on patience and projections with WMB and the Padres expectations in return, he could very well improve our roster more than I have acknowledged.
I don't think so. Part of the problem is that trading for him now is going to cost more than it would closer to July. For one, he was playing pretty poorly before he got injured so letting him play now can only really increase his trade value. They're also going to have a clearer picture on if they can seriously contend this year by July, as well as more suitors if they want to trade him.Plympton91 said:
EDIT:Also, I don't really think it'd be all that hard for other teams to top that offer not to mention that I have no clue why the Padres would want Nava.
If Pablo Sandoval's available, I'm interested. He's added about .100 points of OPS to his (horrible) season line in the last week or so.
Which probably means that he's not available.
Which probably means that he's not available.
I brought this up to my Giants fan friends and they laughed bringing up one key point:nvalvo said:
- Who would then play 3rd base for the NL's best team (28-17)?
Pure conjecture, but if the DBacks blow things up, Martin Prado might make sense in Boston as someone who could play 3B and LF.
Pablo Sandoval or Headley would/should interest the front office. Obviously the Giants would probably be forced to deal with his contract dilemma earlier then they would want but they obviously don't want to give him big money after this season. One would think one or two of the pitching prospects would get Sabean thinking. I mean its not as if Sandoval is a big contributing reason to their success. For once it seems they have enough offensive production from the rest of the lineup.
I mean they probably are definitely going to QO tag him this offseason so they'd probably be angling for a pretty good piece. If Renaudo/ Webster/ or De la rosa could step into their rotation/bullpen they could have more flexibility with lincecum possibly moving to the pen later in the season where he should be.
I think Headley is probably more realistic and I would move quickly. Outside of Kemp and an unlikely Staton I would say he will be the best possible bat on the trade market.
I mean they probably are definitely going to QO tag him this offseason so they'd probably be angling for a pretty good piece. If Renaudo/ Webster/ or De la rosa could step into their rotation/bullpen they could have more flexibility with lincecum possibly moving to the pen later in the season where he should be.
I think Headley is probably more realistic and I would move quickly. Outside of Kemp and an unlikely Staton I would say he will be the best possible bat on the trade market.
Pablo was the 2012 world series MVP. That's pretty recent contribution to success. 2 HR off Verlander in game one. He's also started to hit this year, finally, going 13 for 32 in his last 8 games. He was probably pressing badly in his contract year. As for the Giants trading him, Sabean and Bochy each have a lot of patience, and even if they didn't, they haven't brought a 3Bman up from Fresno to press him. Pablo is their guy at third. As for Headley, he had one big year in 2012, he dropped off last year and is struggling big time this year. Also, would he hit in the AL anyway? Career .683 OPS vs. the AL, but pretty good numbers against Boston, NYY and Detroit, of all people.jimbobim said:
Back to the Giants, they aren't going to be very impressed with the Sox young pitchers you mention. They're in good shape pitching-wise and with the nice lead they have in the West they can afford to wait until the deadline if Lincecum remains inconsistent. But, he's picked it up in his last two starts anyway. Their other bottom of the rotation guy, Vogelsong, has been overall excellent in his last 5 starts. I don't see anything with the Giants. Bad clubhouse karma if nothing else for them to make a move when they're playing so well year to date.
Hee Sox Choi said:
I know. They would need to come up with another viable infielder in the process, and with Scutaro and Belt hurt, they're already down two.
But after Sandoval turned down their extension offer, I'm not so sure they wouldn't be interested in some sort of three-way deal in which they acquired a younger 3b with less performance risk than the Panda, as well as a good pitching prospect. That farm system is pretty barren.
Al Zarilla said:
I disagree with this rosy assessment of the Giants' rotation. Bumgarner and Hudson have been reliable, but Cain's been shelled three times already, Lincecum is up and down, and Vogelsong could turn back into a pumpkin at any moment. It's held together with duct tape: Sabean would be wise to consider acquiring a good AAA starter in a 3B swap.
Uh take with a grain of salt, But...
Ollie Connolly @OllieUKEZ 24m
His value has only increased since then. The only team with the means to go and get him before FA is Boston a deal will be done soon (Samardzija)
His profile
Ollie Connolly @OllieUKEZ 24m
His value has only increased since then. The only team with the means to go and get him before FA is Boston a deal will be done soon (Samardzija)
His profile
https://twitter.com/OllieUKEZ/with_replies
Reads like he's 100% spitballing as a fan rather than reporting anything of substance.
No idea what the Red Sox would see in Samardzija unless they're in a full on GFIN mode, which seems unlikely. The way the team is going, they're better off going with the kids in Pawtucket if needs arise in the rotation than overspending for a guy whose value is being overinflated by his hot start.
Maybe Samardzija is a fair consolation prize in free agency should Lester depart, but only if they can sign him to a Garza/Jiminez-ish deal next winter.
No idea what the Red Sox would see in Samardzija unless they're in a full on GFIN mode, which seems unlikely. The way the team is going, they're better off going with the kids in Pawtucket if needs arise in the rotation than overspending for a guy whose value is being overinflated by his hot start.
Maybe Samardzija is a fair consolation prize in free agency should Lester depart, but only if they can sign him to a Garza/Jiminez-ish deal next winter.
I was open to the idea at first, but then I got looking at at Samardzija's baseball reference page... I had no idea he's already 29 (and only now pitching like a #1). Could've sworn he was 3 years younger. No thank you.
Samardzija reminds me of any number of hard throwing pitchers who took a long time to harness their control. But he was even further delayed because of his football career.
He has started to get that command the last few years and might be a very good pitcher farther into his 30's due to his reduced arm wear and tear through the years.
I want nothing to do with trading the farm for Samardzija, but will be very excited about signing him as a free agent for a fair market deal. He will be a nice value in that instance, I think. My further hope is that the Sox have good enough return from their legion of AAA starters that they don't need to consider him.
He has started to get that command the last few years and might be a very good pitcher farther into his 30's due to his reduced arm wear and tear through the years.
I want nothing to do with trading the farm for Samardzija, but will be very excited about signing him as a free agent for a fair market deal. He will be a nice value in that instance, I think. My further hope is that the Sox have good enough return from their legion of AAA starters that they don't need to consider him.
Its a mention that acknowledges the biggest reason why they are suffering and will continue to suffer. The OF offense is the worst in baseball.
The Dodgers have too many OFs and not enough healthy infielders. They also probably would like to move some OF money to pay Han Ram.
They talked to the Dodgers during the offseason during the winter meetings. They Red Sox arguably should try and win with their flexibility and roster construction. WMB can frustrate the Dodgers and the Red Sox take on a lttle bit more money then they would have in the summer to acquire either CF/LF/RF Etheir or Kemp higher potential more money .
Would people really have a problem with this maybe not just being WMB throw in another guy like a Renaudo or Barnes but not both ?
The Dodgers have too many OFs and not enough healthy infielders. They also probably would like to move some OF money to pay Han Ram.
They talked to the Dodgers during the offseason during the winter meetings. They Red Sox arguably should try and win with their flexibility and roster construction. WMB can frustrate the Dodgers and the Red Sox take on a lttle bit more money then they would have in the summer to acquire either CF/LF/RF Etheir or Kemp higher potential more money .
Would people really have a problem with this maybe not just being WMB throw in another guy like a Renaudo or Barnes but not both ?
I'm not at all convinced that Ethier is better than Nava/Gomes. He's better than Sizemore, but that's not a problem that a trade is required to solve. With both Ethier and Kemp, I would give them Middlebrooks and ask the Dodgers to subsidize. They are both badly overpaid and I would not give up a real asset to get either.
Agreed, 100%. I know it never happens, but I would give up Lester + Koji for JocP once we are out of it. Lester & Koji are FAs after this year and could be re-signed while Joc has 6 years of control coming. Ethier is mediocre and he's now 32, no thanks.MakMan44 said:
A few days have elapsed and the Giants have been playing the Twins, but their staff looks plenty good considering their new-found offense, even with Posey in a funk. Again, the Giants aren't shaking anything up with a trade the way things are going for them. They might tweak at the deadline, but I don't see them doing anything major, and Sandoval is not going anywhere. The even have a "sixth" starter on the 25, Yusmeiro Petit.nvalvo said:
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 8mFarrell was asked if the #RedSox OF is good enough for a team that wants to contend. "Until changes are made this is who we have," he said.
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Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 25mGM Ben Cherington has joined the #RedSox in Atlanta.
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This is Abraham but still sometimes where there is smoke there is fire.
According to numerous sources, both Ben Cherington and Mike Hazen are in Atlanta with the team. Having your top two baseball operations executives with the major league club ON THE ROAD 10 days before the draft is not an ordinary situation. My guess is some changes will be coming.
E5 Yaz said:
That's what I was getting at. It doesn't make sense for the Braves to trade on of their outfielders for one or more of our prospects.
So you some of you dudes have run out to the conclusion that Ben is down there to do a deal -- and meet with the press, etc. etc. etc. -- when if he really wanted to do a deal, and avoid all of this speculative frenzy -- all he had to do was wait in Fenway for the Braves to show up . . . on Wednesday?
I believe Ben is in Atlanta to have a face-to-face with Farrell and the coaches to find out WTF is happening. His appearance also sends the message to the team that he's watching, and the implied threat that changes might be coming if they don't get their act together.E5 Yaz said: