No one expects or needs him to have an MVP level season. If he ends up an average major league hitter, with an OPs+ of 100, plus that defense we expect, this will be a steal.
I guess I don’t get why people think that major league teams highly value defense - as posts like this imply. I mean, we all know defense is valuable in winning games but, as of yet, it doesn’t seem like teams back that notion through giving defense-only players big contracts.
So yeah, the idea that Rafaela’s defense is so spectacular that he’d earn the contract even if he never hits, ignores the fact that there are free agents available every offseason who fit that profile and get so ignored by potential suitors that they have to accept inexpensive, short-term deals (if they close to average with the bat) or minor league contracts (if they if they are significantly below average).
So If people are so impressed by Rafaela’s defense that they think this is an amazing deal, why weren’t those same people clamoring for the Sox to sign Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Taylor (good examples of the first type) or Yu Chang (a good example of the second type) in the offseason? Both Keirmaier and Taylor are still spectacular in CF (13 OAA and 9 OAA) and hit about what we hope Rafaela might reach someday (.714 OPS and .720 OPS) but they faced little interest in free agency. Keirmaier eventually signed for a 1-year 10.5 million deal. Taylor only got $4 million. Yu Chang (+15 OAA in 530 career chances but only a .624 career OPS), who is potentially Rafaela’s downside potential (though at a different position), garnered zero interest before signing a minor league deal with TB.
Defense may be valuable but, despite that, good defense -or even elite defense - is still cheap to acquire.
I’m also surprised that no one has brought up how much a deal like this shifts the risk of serious injury from the player to the team. 8 years is a long time, and prior to this signing the Sox would have been protected contractually if/when Rafaela suffered a a career altering injury. Now they are stuck with him -and this contract- regardless.
Again, I don’t hate this deal but I also don’t particularly like it, and definitely see it as a gamble that could easily fail to pay out.