Seems like a very reasonable return to me. Isn't Bloom's/TB's whole thing digging for gold and actually finding it? Wait two years to evaluate, I guess.
TB's thing is continually rolling forward assets, wait until guys have 2-3 years left of control and move them for guys who have more, lather, rinse, repeat. That seems to be Chaim's main approach so far also, on one hand you could wait and see if Benintendi gets back to great again but he is only controlled through 2022 so you would be fighting the clock in terms of potential return.Isn't Bloom's/TB's whole thing digging for gold and actually finding it?
I'm sure this is the plan, Friedman and the Dodgers are the real role models (TB smarts with big market money) and they have now signed Betts and Bauer to huge deals in consecutive seasons.Hopefully, that’s where we are headed. I hope this is just the start and once the Sox restock the minor league system and get closer to contending, they will once again open up the purse strings.
I believe it is. However, I’m basically just a spoiled sports neanderthal that wants everything right now.I'm sure this is the plan, Friedman and the Dodgers are the real role models (TB smarts with big market money) and they have now signed Betts and Bauer to huge deals in consecutive seasons.
Aren't they on track to have a payroll as large as any team in MLB this year outside of the Dodgers? They are opening the purse strings.So, that works if you’re sitting in Tampa Bay with a shit market and an empty shit stadium. It doesn’t fly here, in a frenzied market where people are basically paying the highest ticket, parking and concession prices in the league. I’m all for a smart, calculated rebuild, but I always thought the Bloom era would be a blend of smart spending and the ability to flex that payroll muscle when needed.
Hopefully, that’s where we are headed. I hope this is just the start and once the Sox restock the minor league system and get closer to contending, they will once again open up the purse strings.
Honestly, I have no idea. It sure doesn’t feel like it or look like it. If they are, I stand corrected and this team is more fucked than I imagined.Aren't they on track to have a payroll as large as any team in MLB this year outside of the Dodgers? They are opening the purse strings.
The Twins couldn't get a 26yr old DH to go opposite field before Pedro pleaded Theo to sign him for $1MMJorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Smoak, J.D. Davis, Chris Davis, Brian Dozier, Ji-Man Choi, Tyler White, Josh Bell, Randy Arozarena, Max Muncy, Dee Gordon, Allen Craig, Logan Morrison, Carlos Peña, Jean Segura, Yandy Diaz, Tommy La Stella, Colin Moran, Jeimer Candelario, Mitch Haniger, DJ LeMahieu, Teoscar Hernandez, Mike Moustakas and Charlie Blackmon to name a few. Our current plan for 1B is hoping a 26-year-old figures it out.
They are on track for a very high payroll. It's just that they aren't opening the purse strings now, they opened them 2-3+ years ago and are still on the hook for that spending. The 2018 championship piper is still being paid. As Nip points out, there's a bunch of money coming off the books in the next year or two. Bloom is building for that while keeping the team moderately competitive in the meantime.Aren't they on track to have a payroll as large as any team in MLB this year outside of the Dodgers? They are opening the purse strings.
And the decision matrix here becomes:They will. It's like with the Pats - eventually, when you push the buck forward you'll have a few years of clean up afterward. 38 million to Price and Pedroia alone.
Same and I really thought Beni, JBJ and Mookie would be patrolling the Fenway outfield for a good long time.We'll always have that catch in Houston. Man, I wish it had worked out here.
Xander.Crazy that Devers is a vet of the team now.
The likely difference in Boston is that he won't have to move *all* of them "before they get too expensive" like he did in TB.TB's thing is continually rolling forward assets, wait until guys have 2-3 years left of control and move them for guys who have more, lather, rinse, repeat. That seems to be Chaim's main approach so far also, on one hand you could wait and see if Benintendi gets back to great again but he is only controlled through 2022 so you would be fighting the clock in terms of potential return.
Dombrowski is like the baseball equivalent of the mafia calling in a hitman. You bring him in for one job and one job only and he’ll get it done, but don’t expect that he’ll fix the problems that required calling a hitman in the first place.Again, I think you guys should start a Chaim thread, which obviously doesn't mean rush to judgment but there is an increasingly long track record of moves to keep an eye on and discuss. What he has pretty obviously been doing to this point is continually trying to upgrade the overall talent depth throughout the system and if that overlaps with helping the MLB team this year, that's a nice bonus. Moving two years of Benintendi for three years of Franchy plus a handful of other guys helps the depth. For as incredible a job as DD did building the 2018 best season in franchise history team, he inexplicably largely ignored stocking the system and coupled with some bad luck, left Chaim with a pretty bare cupboard which he is slowly trying to build up. In the thread here right after he was fired, I talked about this (and for a couple years before, it was very confusing to me), so Sept 2019 I posted here:
"Fangraphs has NY with 40 prospects rated 40 or better, 23 of those are their own international signings. BOS has 23 prospects 40 or better, only 8 of those their own international signings."
17 months later, BOS now has 33 prospects at 40 or better, not counting guys from today, (FWIW, NY is down to 30 after losing some in the last two rule 5s and trading four for two years of Taillon). That seems like solid overall work from Chaim, even if it isn't the easiest process to sit through as a fan.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/
Anyway, a thread could keep an eye on how he is doing, I think the Mookie deal was huge and a home run but he needs to get some Voit/Urshela level dumpster dives and I don't think he's done well with those yet (I have a feeling Pivetta might work out, though), but I don't follow the personnel as closely as some of you, and also of course we have much less data because of no minor league season last year.
Did SJH get the keys to your account?Honestly, I have no idea. It sure doesn’t feel like it or look like it. If they are, I stand corrected and this team is more fucked than I imagined.
Renfroe and Cordero were teammates in San Diego and Bloom was with TB when they traded for Renfroe. I'm sure a lot of this has to do with how well he knows Cordero and his upside from previous due diligence.This makes sense to me. You’re playing for Cordero, Renfroe and to a lesser extent Arroyo to break out if possible so you definitely want them to get as many PAs as they need. That means releasing Cordero/Renfroe from a strict platoon and shifting Kiké between 2B/CF pretty fluidly.
The idea that Renfroe should only face lefties has kind of calcified over the winter, but he’s only two years removed from an .803 OPS against RHP.
Expected to be 2nd highest payroll after Dodgers but ahead of Yankees. Paying $28 million this year for Price and Pedroia, still paying $2 million for Manny.Honestly, I have no idea. It sure doesn’t feel like it or look like it. If they are, I stand corrected and this team is more fucked than I imagined.
And JD+Eovaldi off the books after 2022.Expected to be 2nd highest payroll after Dodgers but ahead of Yankees. Paying $28 million this year for Price and Pedroia, still paying $2 million for Manny.
Opening up the purse strings this year will cost draft picks and international signing money, you're just delaying the farm rebuild. When these contracts come off the books, hopefully we'll have some young players on the roster and some good prospects in the pipeline. Then you can hit free agency after the reset just like the Dodgers.
Jose Bautista Stats | Baseball-Reference.com (baseball-reference.com)This would be a lot more encouraging if we weren't talking about a 26 year old. How many guys manage to "figure it out" and become major league regulars at 26 after failing to do so previously?
I was looking for a current Sox prospect to compare him to. Fangraphs ranks all of the prospects a team has that are over a 35 future value. The Blue Jays had 39 of those, and Winckowski was in the honorable mention section meaning he was below that level. The Sox had 47 players at or above that value. So that means it's pretty unlikely he'll rank as one of their top 50 prospects. The comp type guy I saw was Brock Bell.So I'm on record as saying I think Benintendi is a guy the Sox should be going after, not trading away. Definitely sold low on him, IMO. BUT...if they don't think he's part of the future, then dealing him makes sense. Cordero is a guy with huge power and terrific speed. Definitely a guy you can reasonably take a chance on. Winckowski seems like a meh prospect. Here's one brief writeup of him:
"Winkcowski throws a heavy sinker that averages 93 MPH and complements it nicely with a decent slider. If all breaks right for him he could fill out the back-end of a rotation, however he is likely to be headed for the bullpen long-term. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2021."
https://www.pitcherlist.com/dynasty-toronto-blue-jays-2021-preseason-top-50-prospects/
Here's another article about him, which has me a little more intrigued.
https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-winckowski-self-scouting-report
If any of the other three PTBNLs are any good, this will probably have been a nice trade by Bloom.
I know building a really strong bullpen is kind of a crapshoot, but it seems to me a big part of it is having a lot of these fringe-starter types whose 3rd pitch isn't good enough to start, but suddenly their stuff really plays up in 1-2 inning spurts. It's by no means automatic, and every franchise has fringe starters in their system, but this is the kind of guy that would regularly be shipped out as the 3rd or 4th piece in trades in previous years. It doesn't kill you to lose one, and it may not seem like a big deal to bring one in, but all it takes is for a few of these guys to pan out even if it's 'just' middle relief and suddenly you're happy with what was previously looked at as just organizational depth.So I'm on record as saying I think Benintendi is a guy the Sox should be going after, not trading away. Definitely sold low on him, IMO. BUT...if they don't think he's part of the future, then dealing him makes sense. Cordero is a guy with huge power and terrific speed. Definitely a guy you can reasonably take a chance on. Winckowski seems like a meh prospect. Here's one brief writeup of him:
"Winkcowski throws a heavy sinker that averages 93 MPH and complements it nicely with a decent slider. If all breaks right for him he could fill out the back-end of a rotation, however he is likely to be headed for the bullpen long-term. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2021."
https://www.pitcherlist.com/dynasty-toronto-blue-jays-2021-preseason-top-50-prospects/
Here's another article about him, which has me a little more intrigued.
https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-winckowski-self-scouting-report
If any of the other three PTBNLs are any good, this will probably have been a nice trade by Bloom.
Scouts (mlb scouts) are not fond of AB given it’s been a couple years since he has had a “good” seasonI understood the Betts trade, hated it, but understood it. The point has been made several times around here that Bloom was hired with Dodger aspirations not Tampa execution, but this trade reeks of the Tampa mentality.
Which side of this trade do you think Friedman would be on? "Wait, you are telling me I can get a guy who was the college player of the year, the 7th pick overall, who ripped through the minors, put up 4.4 WAR in his age 24 season, who had a bad partially injury induced September of his age 25 season, had his 26 season completely derailed by COVID and injury for 3 minor leaguers in my system ranked 8-20 and a guy who a smart organization gave up on to give to me for a middling LOOGY who can't stay healthy and has a career 39% K rate? AND THEY ARE GIVING ME $2.8mm?"
The Dodgers didn't get to where they are by giving up on their regulars and trading them for "depth." They built their depth through drafting, international signing and development. Tampa rolls players for "depth." They need to given their market, the Dodgers do not. Trading a Kevin Pillar or a Brandon Workman for "depth" makes sense. Trading a regular for one does not. The smart thing for the Sox, with their financial wherewithal, would have been to send Andrew back out there and if he regains his previously achieved skill level by July, try and extend him for 4/$40mm or something like that. If he doesn't rebound, there would still be a team that would take him in July for two of their 15-20 ("depth") ranked prospects and $2.8mm.
So in essence, the only thing the Sox picked up here was a much bigger question mark than Andrew and an one additional "depth" piece. I have built a few companies from the ground-up, a lesson I learned is that one of the biggest impediments to success is believing your own bullshit. This strikes me as believing your own bullshit.
The silver lining is that going into the 2023 season, after Cordero and Renfroe flame out and Bloom has either learned his lesson or is fired, the Red Sox can get a LF in Free Agency. At that time, Kansas City Royals' All-Star OF Andrew Benintendi will be a free agent and a perfect fit.
Kauffman Stadium is where homers go to die (in all of Benintendi's batted balls in 2019-20 only 7 would have left Kauffman). I think he is going to bounce back and be good, but it's hard to forecast a big breakout coming. There are scouts that really don't like what they see:
Both of them had K rates of 25%-27%, not 39%. David Ortiz was in the low 20s. There are a lot of smart people on this board, I think the better question is how many breakouts occur in the age 27 season for players with that kind of K rate. Of that list a few pages ago, how many have Cordero's profile? I don't the answer, I am seriously asking. Chris Davis maybe? Power and speed is useless if strike three is in the catcher's mitt.
I agree 100% with this and would add that "Three True Outcome" baseball is also painful to watch.What worries me most about this deal and all of the other deals that Bloom has made recently, is that the Sox seem to be jumping onto the "Three True Outcome," bandwagon, acquiring guys like Renfroe, Cordero and Hernandez whose "upside" is long-ball and not much else. Putting together a team like this (including Dalbec and Devers) seems almost blasphemous in the shadow of the GREAT 2018 team that brought home all of the marbles by playing "baseball," instead of HR derby. It also seems almost nonsensical given the news that MLB plans on deadening the ball. I really don't want to watch a team that batss .220 and strikes out 15 times a game.
A vet, not the vet.Same and I really thought Beni, JBJ and Mookie would be patrolling the Fenway outfield for a good long time.
Xander.
It's true, business is really easy if you know exactly how everything will play out ahead of time.The silver lining is that going into the 2023 season, after Cordero and Renfroe flame out and Bloom has either learned his lesson or is fired, the Red Sox can get a LF in Free Agency. At that time, Kansas City Royals' All-Star OF Andrew Benintendi will be a free agent and a perfect fit.
It's not "selling low" if the seller thinks Benintendi will suck, but the buyer thinks he'll be good. And if Benintendi *does* suck in a couple of months, then the return is even less then it is now. .The aspect to this trade that I don't really understand is why sell low? If Benintendi has a good couple of months, you could potentially get a much better package. If he doesn't, would the package look much different than it does now? Unless they really like Cordero. Otherwise, this sort of feels like a mini-dump masked with a couple players who have upside.
The aspect to this trade that I don't really understand is why sell low? If Benintendi has a good couple of months, you could potentially get a much better package. If he doesn't, would the package look much different than it does now? Unless they really like Cordero. Otherwise, this sort of feels like a mini-dump masked with a couple players who have upside.
Where are you seeing a 39% K rate? Cordero's MLB K rate is 34.9, which is spread over PAs in 4 seasons while battling a litany of (non-career threatening) injuries, and was much better last year. Bobby Dalbec had a 42.4% K rate last year.Both of them had K rates of 25%-27%, not 39%. David Ortiz was in the low 20s. There are a lot of smart people on this board, I think the better question is how many breakouts occur in the age 27 season for players with that kind of K rate. Of that list a few pages ago, how many have Cordero's profile? I don't the answer, I am seriously asking. Chris Davis maybe? Power and speed is useless if strike three is in the catcher's mitt.
I really don't understand what this means, at least as an insult. Tampa won the pennant last year. And because they didn't do it by trading all their elite prospects for specific guys their GM really really really wanted, or over-spending in free agency to acquire "proven studs," they were able to do it without mortgaging their future competitiveness.I understood the Betts trade, hated it, but understood it. The point has been made several times around here that Bloom was hired with Dodger aspirations not Tampa execution, but this trade reeks of the Tampa mentality.
The odd circumstances already led to a return in the Pillar trade that seems far more interesting than the typical PTBNL, so I'm on board with being patient here in the hope of being pleasantly surprised.I'd be really curious to see the list of players that have been made available to the Sox as PTBNL, and it wouldn't surprise in this weird and strange season if they are actually the players that Bloom is more interested in, and higher up on the prospect ladder than the two that we currently know about.
On it's face, I hate this trade, if these two players are the centerpieces coming back to the Sox. I think the whole deal hinges on those PTBNL, though, so I'm not ready to go headhunting just yet.
I know. However, I answered the question asked.Both of them had K rates of 25%-27%, not 39%. David Ortiz was in the low 20s. There are a lot of smart people on this board, I think the better question is how many breakouts occur in the age 27 season for players with that kind of K rate. Of that list a few pages ago, how many have Cordero's profile? I don't the answer, I am seriously asking. Chris Davis maybe? Power and speed is useless if strike three is in the catcher's mitt.