Pats defense ranks last in DVOA, 32nd in yards per drive, 12th in points per drive, 31st in plays per drive and 20th in turnovers per drive. The only stat they truly excel at is average opponent starting field position, where they rank first in the league. Considering the offense ranks 28th in drives per game, but 4th in TOP, and 1st in points, yards and plays per drive, it seems that what we have here is a bad defense that is getting propped up by the best offense in the league while simultaneously severely holding it back by staying on the field more than pretty much any other. I think it's pretty clear that no, this defense is absolutely not championship caliber on its own, and that points allowed is a very context dependent stat. The only reason the Pats have a chance at a title with that defense is due to excellent offense and special teams doing everything in their power to overcome the ineptitude on the other side of the ball.Yeah, I disagree with the claim that it's "nowhere near super bowl caliber". Quite clearly, it's at least "near" Super Bowl caliber.
From a points-per-game allowed perspective (and I disagree with people who say this is the only stat that matters...ultimately, yes, but if you're evaluating the quality of a defense, there's more that goes into it than that; but it is the MAJOR stat to pay attention to), here's how the playoff teams rank:
1. Min - 15.8
2. Jax - 16.8
4. Phi - 18.4
5. NE - 18.5
7. Pit - 19.3
8. Atl - 19.7
10. NO - 20.4
11. Car - 20.4
12. LAR - 20.6
15. KC - 21.2
17. Ten - 22.3
18. Buf - 22.4
From an offensive standpoint, here's how they rank:
1. LAR - 29.9
2. NE - 28.6
3. Phi - 28.6
4. NO - 28.0
5. Jax - 26.1
6. KC - 25.9
8. Pit - 25.4
10. Min - 23.9
12. Car - 22.2
15. Atl - 22.1
19. Ten - 20.9
22. Buf - 18.9
Point differential:
Phi: +10.2
NE: +10.1
Jax: +9.3
LAR: +9.3
Min: +8.1
NO: +7.6
Pit: +6.1
KC: +4.7
Atl: +2.4
Car: +1.8
Ten: -1.4
Buf: -3.5
In my view, the Patriots have to be the team with the best odds of winning the Super Bowl. I haven't seen Vegas odds but I'm sure I'm right.
Just another reason why the "Brady always had a good defense and that's why he wins" argument is laughable. The Pats managed to be 11th in the league in points allowed in 2011, while playing Julian Edelman, Antwan Molden, Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo, Nate Jones and a struggling Devin McCourty (still at CB) in the secondary. Was that a championship caliber defense because the stat that matters most is points allowed?
Quick edit: looking at the numbers, I found it funny that just like for the past 10 years, the defensive stat the Patriots performed the best in in 2001 was average opponent starting field position, where they ranked second in the league. Guess this isn't just a recent trend.
Last edited: