Last year I went to a playoff game with blankets, no problem.RedOctober3829 said:Question for people that have gone to a cold weather game at Foxboro recently: Have they let you in with a blanket?
Last year I went to a playoff game with blankets, no problem.RedOctober3829 said:Question for people that have gone to a cold weather game at Foxboro recently: Have they let you in with a blanket?
mascho said:Fucking Bill Polian. Just talking about this game on ESPN seconds ago: "By the way, this game is played in Foxboro every year by law."
RedOctober3829 said:Question for people that have gone to a cold weather game at Foxboro recently: Have they let you in with a blanket?
Corsi said:
I had no problem with a blanket at last year's AFC Championship. They may make you open it up to show you're not hiding a bazooka in there, but they should let you in with it. Not sure if these rules have changed since last year (see-thru bags and all), but I mean, it's gonna be pretty cold and it's a blanket.
mascho said:Fucking Bill Polian. Just talking about this game on ESPN seconds ago: "By the way, this game is played in Foxboro every year by law."
MentalDisabldLst said:Those of you dying to slake your unquenchable thirst for praise for the Patriots and a sense of superiority over the rest of the NFL can feast your eyes on this little grid I just put together during a long conference call.
I coded the year-by-year results since 2000 for 11 of the league's top franchises, based on how far they advanced in the playoffs or, if they did not, how poor a year they had regardless, assigned a point value to each type of finish, and tallied the totals. As you can see in the key at the bottom, a shitty year (0-4 wins) resulted in 0 points, 5-7 wins in 1 point, 8-10 wins but no playoff spot or even a tie for the division title is 2 points (hey, at least it wasn't a losing season), and so on up to 8 points for a Championship.
Why 11 franchises? That was the width of my screen and my patience. Which 11 franchises? The ones that I thought had had a good amount of success lately. I could have added Oakland or Seattle or Chicago or the Jets but I'm not sure how much better it would make the view. The list includes 6 of the 8 teams that have made the divisional round this year (missing SEA & CAR), though results beyond that of course are TBD.
And if you take the expected value of an NFL year, i.e. the points from an outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome out of the 32 teams in the league, you would expect ~38 points over the past 14 years, so that's an average performance. The 49ers have actually been below-average, and I don't think there's any substantially above-average teams (45+) that I've missed just from my guess-tacular selection.
Since the year 2000, the Patriots are the league's outlier franchise, the most consistent over-performer, and way ahead of 2nd place. But everyone here already knew that - this is just a fun, color-filled way to appreciate it again. Interestingly, in this era, the league's top 4 teams are all in the AFC and have every AFC title between them except for 2002 (OAK). And the NFC's top team during this time, by this measure, has been... Philadelphia. And only the Giants have more than one NFC title.
Hendu for Kutch said:This took a long time, but I'm more than happy to do it when stuck in the office on Christmas week with nothing to do. I thought it'd be interesting to get a snapshot of the league since the BB-Brady duo came together in 2001. We're measuring all sorts of things, from how often teams suck all the way to how often they win a championship. It's amazing to see not only how much the Patriots win, but conversely, how infrequently they don't. I know those go directly hand-in-hand, but hopefully you catch my drift.
All numbers are the frequency of occurence over the past 13 seasons, except for playoff results which are over 12 seasons. If the matter is not decided for this season, the team gets a .5.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Awful seasons (10 or more losses):
10 - Browns, Lions
9 - Raiders
8 -
7.5 - Bills
7 - Cardinals, Jaguars, Reskins
6 - Texans, Vikings
5 - Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers
4.5- Titans
4 - Bengals, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets, 49ers
3 - Falcons, Panthers
2.5 - Giants
2 - Ravens, Bears, Packers, Colts, Eagles, Chargers, Seahawks
1 - Broncos, Saints, Steelers
0 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Irrelevant seasons (.500 or worse):
12 - Bills, Lions
11 - Browns, Raiders, Rams
10 - Cardinals, Jaguars, Redskins
9 - Panthers, Texans
8 - Bengals, Chiefs, Vikings, 49ers, Titans
7.5 - Dolphins
7 - Saints, Buccaneers
6.5 - Bears, Cowboys, Chargers
6 - Falcons, Broncos, Giants, Jets
5 - Seahawks
4 - Eagles, Steelers
3.5 - Ravens, Packers
3 -
2 - Colts
1 -
0 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Contending seasons (10 or more wins):
0 - Bills
1 - Browns, Lions
2 - Cardinals, Texans, Jaguars, Raiders, Rams, Redskins
3 - Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings, Buccaneers
4 - Panthers, Bengals, Chiefs, Jets, Chargers, Titans
5 - Falcons, Bears, Broncos, Saints, Giants, 49ers, Seahawks
6 -
7 - Ravens
7.5 - Eagles
8 - Steelers
9 - Packers
10 -
11 - Colts
12 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Elite seasons (12 or more wins):
0 - Cardinals, Bills, Bengals, Browns, Lions, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Redskins
1 - Cowboys, Texans, Jaguars, Vikings, Giants, Buccaneers
1.5 - Panthers, Chiefs
2 - Falcons, Bears, Saints, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Titans
3 - Ravens, Broncos, Eagles, Chargers
4 - Packers
5 - Steelers
6 -
7 - Colts
7.5 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Historic seasons (14 or more wins):
0 - 26 teams
1 - Packers, Steelers, Chargers, Rams
2 - Colts
3 -
4 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Playoff appearances (counting this year):
0 - Bills
1 - Browns, Lions
2 - Texans, Jaguars, Raiders
2.5 - Cardinals, Dolphins
3 - Rams, Redskins
4 - Panthers, Chiefs, Vikings, Buccaneers, Titans
4.5 - Bears, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers
5 - Bengals
5.5 - Chargers
6 - Falcons, Broncos, Giants, Jets
7 - Seahawks
8 -
8.5 - Ravens, Steelers, Eagles
9 -
9.5 - Packers
10 -
11 - Colts, Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Division Championships:
0 - Bills, Browns, Lions
1 - Jets, Dolphins
2 - Raiders, Chiefs, Titans, Texans, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals
2.5 - Cowboys, Panthers
3 - Bengals, Giants, Buccaneers, Falcons
3.5 - 49ers, Saints
4 - Ravens, Broncos
4.5 - Bears
5 - Chargers
5.5 - Seahawks
6 - Steelers
6.5 - Packers, Eagles
7 -
8 - Colts
9 -
10 -
11 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Divisional Round appearances:
0 - Bills, Bengals, Browns, Lions, Dolphins
1 - Jaguars, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Redskins
2 - Cardinals, Cowboys, Texans, Vikings, Raiders
3 - Panthers, Broncos, Saints, Giants, 49ers, Rams, Titans
4 - Falcons, Bears, Jets, Chargers
5 - Seahawks
6 - Packers, Colts, Eagles, Steelers
7 - Ravens
8 -
9 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Championship Game appearances:
0 - Bills, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Dolphins, Redskins
1 - Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, Vikings. Seahawks, Rams, Buccaneers
2 - Jets, Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Packers, Saints, Giants, 49ers
3 - Ravens, Colts
4 -
5 - Steelers, Eagles
6 -
7 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Super Bowl appearances:
0 - 16 teams
1 - Cardinals, Ravens, Panthers, Bears, Packers, Saints, Raiders, Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Buccaneers
2 - Colts, Giants
3 - Steelers
4 -
5 - Patriots
--------------------------------------------------------------
Championships:
0 - 24 teams
1 - Ravens, Packers, Colts, Saints, Buccaneers
2 - Giants, Steelers
3 - Patriots
Yes, blankets are still allowed in this year (and I felt like an idiot for not bringing one to the Broncos game, which may mean I am, in fact, an idiot).RedOctober3829 said:Question for people that have gone to a cold weather game at Foxboro recently: Have they let you in with a blanket?
Colts SS LaRon Landry (concussion) has yet to be cleared to practice.
Landry has just four more days to get cleared for Saturday's Divisional Round showdown with the Patriots. Were Landry not cleared, the Colts would be forced to go with Sergio Brown opposite Antoine Bethea. Corey Lynch would also likely see snaps.
Arrington does likely draw a fair amount of Hilton, but my worry with bend but dont break and lots of two deep safeties is that, given Luck's mobility, Pats are going to be playing a lot of contain rush as well so Luck will have time to throw. That seems like a recipe to be picked apart.Super Nomario said:I know people are going to hate this, but I think Arrington might be the matchup on Hilton. Hilton spends a lot of time in the slot (45% per PFF, and I think that number's gone up since Wayne went on IR). He's not big (5'9"), so Arrington's size shouldn't be a problem, and Arrington's our fastest corner. Obviously Arrington needs help over the top, but with none of the other receiving threats particularly scary, I don't think that's a problem.
Last year when they played Indy, they appeared to do sides rather than matchups. Arrington didn't face Hilton, but Talib got burned by him - 3 of 3 for 68 yards and 2 TDs. That was Talib's first game with the Pats, however. Dennard drew Hilton four times (2 of 4 for 29 yards). That approach might make sense here; have Talib jam him when he faces him on the outside, Arrington take him when he's in the slot. I expect a lot of two-deep safeties, bend-but-don't-break and wait for Luck to make a mistake.
Im excited about the idea of Sergio Brown, starting safety and Darius Butler, best healthy starting corner. Plus I read Colts fans saying their team has trouble covering RB's out of the backfield.axx said:I'm concerned about Luck's scrambling ability. Could totally see him getting 50-60 yards rushing, and that's a big problem if those are drive-extending runs.
Probably going to be a high scoring game if the weather is not horrible.
I don't think your instinct here is wrong, I'd just add that, of all of our CBs, Arrington might suddenly be the LEAST healthy. Talib has healed up some, and Dennard is back practicing after quite a layoff, whereas the last time we saw Arrington, he was pulling up lame-ish for about the third straight game.Super Nomario said:I know people are going to hate this, but I think Arrington might be the matchup on Hilton. Hilton spends a lot of time in the slot (45% per PFF, and I think that number's gone up since Wayne went on IR). He's not big (5'9"), so Arrington's size shouldn't be a problem, and Arrington's our fastest corner. Obviously Arrington needs help over the top, but with none of the other receiving threats particularly scary, I don't think that's a problem.
Last year when they played Indy, they appeared to do sides rather than matchups. Arrington didn't face Hilton, but Talib got burned by him - 3 of 3 for 68 yards and 2 TDs. That was Talib's first game with the Pats, however. Dennard drew Hilton four times (2 of 4 for 29 yards). That approach might make sense here; have Talib jam him when he faces him on the outside, Arrington take him when he's in the slot. I expect a lot of two-deep safeties, bend-but-don't-break and wait for Luck to make a mistake.
I know I'm referencing something stupid and not terribly analytic when I ask this, but on what basis do you say that Arrington's our fastest corner? His recorded 40 time (4.44) is the same as Talib's. I'm not trying to criticize, just curious what you're going off of.Super Nomario said:I know people are going to hate this, but I think Arrington might be the matchup on Hilton. Hilton spends a lot of time in the slot (45% per PFF, and I think that number's gone up since Wayne went on IR). He's not big (5'9"), so Arrington's size shouldn't be a problem, and Arrington's our fastest corner. Obviously Arrington needs help over the top, but with none of the other receiving threats particularly scary, I don't think that's a problem.
Last year when they played Indy, they appeared to do sides rather than matchups. Arrington didn't face Hilton, but Talib got burned by him - 3 of 3 for 68 yards and 2 TDs. That was Talib's first game with the Pats, however. Dennard drew Hilton four times (2 of 4 for 29 yards). That approach might make sense here; have Talib jam him when he faces him on the outside, Arrington take him when he's in the slot. I expect a lot of two-deep safeties, bend-but-don't-break and wait for Luck to make a mistake.
Observational, I guess. I might be selling Talib's speed short under the "big guys don't look like they're running fast" illusion. And they've used Arrington against Mike Wallace, kind of a similar speed / lack of size combo to Hilton.Wilco's Last Fan said:I know I'm referencing something stupid and not terribly analytic when I ask this, but on what basis do you say that Arrington's our fastest corner? His recorded 40 time (4.44) is the same as Talib's. I'm not trying to criticize, just curious what you're going off of.
mascho said:Fucking Bill Polian. Just talking about this game on ESPN seconds ago: "By the way, this game is played in Foxboro every year by law."
RedOctober3829 said:Question for people that have gone to a cold weather game at Foxboro recently: Have they let you in with a blanket?
Yes the blanket question was more for the Red-ette. Forecast has changed to a low of 48 with a 60% chance of showers.Frisbetarian said:
The hell with a blanket, get a poncho! No need for a real Mexican poncho, a Sears (rain) one will do.
Heavy rain and serious wind forecast for Saturday night. LGBT time.
Frisbetarian said:
The hell with a blanket, get a poncho! No need for a real Mexican poncho, a Sears (rain) one will do.
Heavy rain and serious wind forecast for Saturday night. LGBT time.
I've got ponchosCorsi said:
If you can't get to a store, Amazon has a 4-pack of ponchos available via Prime for $6.99.
http://www.amazon.com/EMERGENCY-GOTTA-HOODED-PONCHO--BLUE/dp/B002OD1LTA
Probably not as good as the vinyl ones, but for $1.75, can't complain. Has good enough reviews.
Stitch01 said:Besides sucking to attend, bad break for the Pats if its windy and rainy. Pass offense has been terrible in the rain this year and creates lots of variance to help the inferior team.
RedOctober3829 said:I've got ponchos
Not really. It's FieldTurf. Unless its like the Buffalo game, running and cutting wont be affected by the rain.BigSoxFan said:Rain would also help to neutralize Hilton's speed and quick cutting ability.
I like the matchup enough straight up that Id rather not increase variance with fumbles and guys slipping at the wrong time and ball squirting up out of receivers hands.DrewDawg said:
Pats were 3rd in AFC in rushing and top remaining playoff team, and the Colts are essentially a dome team. I'll take the weather.
There is always the factor of whether or not the Colts (and Patriots) have the best kind of cleats/spikes for the weather that shows up. Sometimes teams don't adjust until the second half. Watch for guys falling down early.RedOctober3829 said:Not really. It's FieldTurf. Unless its like the Buffalo game, running and cutting wont be affected by the rain.
mascho said:Fucking Bill Polian. Just talking about this game on ESPN seconds ago: "By the way, this game is played in Foxboro every year by law."
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:What a fucking asshole. He knows full well why the game's in Foxboro all the time, the schedules are pre-set by the league.
He also ruined football by making those rule changes in 2004.
I hope he dies.
Ralphwiggum said:It's not even true. The Pats played @ Indy four straight times from 2007 through 2009. They'll play there in the regular season in 2014 and 2015 too. He's a fucking troll, but obviously a good one since every time he opens his fat mouth I want to punch him in the teeth.
Old Fart Tree said:I want to fucking murder Bill Polian. Fuck him.
BigSoxFan said:Rain would also help to neutralize Hilton's speed and quick cutting ability.