Patriots vs. Colts-Divisional Game Analysis
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
RedOctober3829 said:
I had no problem with a blanket at last year's AFC Championship. They may make you open it up to show you're not hiding a bazooka in there, but they should let you in with it. Not sure if these rules have changed since last year (see-thru bags and all), but I mean, it's gonna be pretty cold and it's a blanket.
What is Polian even referencing anyway? That the Pats always get a bye (not true but they have earned one more often than other teams). Or that it's Pats-Colts in the playoffs? The last time they met in the playoffs was the 2006 AFCCG in Indy.
Edit: 2006 season, played 1/21/07
Edit: 2006 season, played 1/21/07
Corsi said:
There's going to be a low of 39 on Saturday night (plus some light rain?) that's balmy for a playoff game.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Those of you dying to slake your unquenchable thirst for praise for the Patriots and a sense of superiority over the rest of the NFL can feast your eyes on this little grid I just put together during a long conference call.
I coded the year-by-year results since 2000 for 11 of the league's top franchises, based on how far they advanced in the playoffs or, if they did not, how poor a year they had regardless, assigned a point value to each type of finish, and tallied the totals. As you can see in the key at the bottom, a shitty year (0-4 wins) resulted in 0 points, 5-7 wins in 1 point, 8-10 wins but no playoff spot or even a tie for the division title is 2 points (hey, at least it wasn't a losing season), and so on up to 8 points for a Championship.
Why 11 franchises? That was the width of my screen and my patience. Which 11 franchises? The ones that I thought had had a good amount of success lately. I could have added Oakland or Seattle or Chicago or the Jets but I'm not sure how much better it would make the view. The list includes 6 of the 8 teams that have made the divisional round this year (missing SEA & CAR), though results beyond that of course are TBD.
And if you take the expected value of an NFL year, i.e. the points from an outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome out of the 32 teams in the league, you would expect ~38 points over the past 14 years, so that's an average performance. The 49ers have actually been below-average, and I don't think there's any substantially above-average teams (45+) that I've missed just from my guess-tacular selection.
Since the year 2000, the Patriots are the league's outlier franchise, the most consistent over-performer, and way ahead of 2nd place. But everyone here already knew that - this is just a fun, color-filled way to appreciate it again. Interestingly, in this era, the league's top 4 teams are all in the AFC and have every AFC title between them except for 2002 (OAK). And the NFC's top team during this time, by this measure, has been... Philadelphia. And only the Giants have more than one NFC title.
I coded the year-by-year results since 2000 for 11 of the league's top franchises, based on how far they advanced in the playoffs or, if they did not, how poor a year they had regardless, assigned a point value to each type of finish, and tallied the totals. As you can see in the key at the bottom, a shitty year (0-4 wins) resulted in 0 points, 5-7 wins in 1 point, 8-10 wins but no playoff spot or even a tie for the division title is 2 points (hey, at least it wasn't a losing season), and so on up to 8 points for a Championship.
Why 11 franchises? That was the width of my screen and my patience. Which 11 franchises? The ones that I thought had had a good amount of success lately. I could have added Oakland or Seattle or Chicago or the Jets but I'm not sure how much better it would make the view. The list includes 6 of the 8 teams that have made the divisional round this year (missing SEA & CAR), though results beyond that of course are TBD.
And if you take the expected value of an NFL year, i.e. the points from an outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome out of the 32 teams in the league, you would expect ~38 points over the past 14 years, so that's an average performance. The 49ers have actually been below-average, and I don't think there's any substantially above-average teams (45+) that I've missed just from my guess-tacular selection.
Since the year 2000, the Patriots are the league's outlier franchise, the most consistent over-performer, and way ahead of 2nd place. But everyone here already knew that - this is just a fun, color-filled way to appreciate it again. Interestingly, in this era, the league's top 4 teams are all in the AFC and have every AFC title between them except for 2002 (OAK). And the NFC's top team during this time, by this measure, has been... Philadelphia. And only the Giants have more than one NFC title.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Well, I'm not sure if SD would be 10th on the full list, if I did all 32. There are probably a handful of slightly-above-average teams out there that I didn't get, who piled up a bunch of 8-to-10-win seasons and maybe a big run or two. But your larger point stands.
edit: actually, 62 - 14 = 48, which would put them just after the NYG. But your larger point still kinda stands.
edit: actually, 62 - 14 = 48, which would put them just after the NYG. But your larger point still kinda stands.
mascho said:
Yeah, the law that states that the division winner with the best record gets to host the game in the postseason.
I'm sure he is aware that homefield rotates every schedule cycle. The Pats played at Indy from 06-09, I believe.
MentalDisabldLst said:Those of you dying to slake your unquenchable thirst for praise for the Patriots and a sense of superiority over the rest of the NFL can feast your eyes on this little grid I just put together during a long conference call.
I coded the year-by-year results since 2000 for 11 of the league's top franchises, based on how far they advanced in the playoffs or, if they did not, how poor a year they had regardless, assigned a point value to each type of finish, and tallied the totals. As you can see in the key at the bottom, a shitty year (0-4 wins) resulted in 0 points, 5-7 wins in 1 point, 8-10 wins but no playoff spot or even a tie for the division title is 2 points (hey, at least it wasn't a losing season), and so on up to 8 points for a Championship.
Why 11 franchises? That was the width of my screen and my patience. Which 11 franchises? The ones that I thought had had a good amount of success lately. I could have added Oakland or Seattle or Chicago or the Jets but I'm not sure how much better it would make the view. The list includes 6 of the 8 teams that have made the divisional round this year (missing SEA & CAR), though results beyond that of course are TBD.
And if you take the expected value of an NFL year, i.e. the points from an outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome out of the 32 teams in the league, you would expect ~38 points over the past 14 years, so that's an average performance. The 49ers have actually been below-average, and I don't think there's any substantially above-average teams (45+) that I've missed just from my guess-tacular selection.
Since the year 2000, the Patriots are the league's outlier franchise, the most consistent over-performer, and way ahead of 2nd place. But everyone here already knew that - this is just a fun, color-filled way to appreciate it again. Interestingly, in this era, the league's top 4 teams are all in the AFC and have every AFC title between them except for 2002 (OAK). And the NFC's top team during this time, by this measure, has been... Philadelphia. And only the Giants have more than one NFC title.
I put this together last week, it's a different way of painting the same picture and is worth a look. No colors, but all 30 teams!
Hendu for Kutch said:
Yes, blankets are still allowed in this year (and I felt like an idiot for not bringing one to the Broncos game, which may mean I am, in fact, an idiot).RedOctober3829 said:
I know people are going to hate this, but I think Arrington might be the matchup on Hilton. Hilton spends a lot of time in the slot (45% per PFF, and I think that number's gone up since Wayne went on IR). He's not big (5'9"), so Arrington's size shouldn't be a problem, and Arrington's our fastest corner. Obviously Arrington needs help over the top, but with none of the other receiving threats particularly scary, I don't think that's a problem.
Last year when they played Indy, they appeared to do sides rather than matchups. Arrington didn't face Hilton, but Talib got burned by him - 3 of 3 for 68 yards and 2 TDs. That was Talib's first game with the Pats, however. Dennard drew Hilton four times (2 of 4 for 29 yards). That approach might make sense here; have Talib jam him when he faces him on the outside, Arrington take him when he's in the slot. I expect a lot of two-deep safeties, bend-but-don't-break and wait for Luck to make a mistake.
Last year when they played Indy, they appeared to do sides rather than matchups. Arrington didn't face Hilton, but Talib got burned by him - 3 of 3 for 68 yards and 2 TDs. That was Talib's first game with the Pats, however. Dennard drew Hilton four times (2 of 4 for 29 yards). That approach might make sense here; have Talib jam him when he faces him on the outside, Arrington take him when he's in the slot. I expect a lot of two-deep safeties, bend-but-don't-break and wait for Luck to make a mistake.
I was thinking the same thing -- Arrington w/ help over the top makes the most sense. Talib can take out another receiver -- presumably the TE, but perhaps just whomever else lines up wide. I agree that Arrington matches up best with Hilton (with help).
Arrington does likely draw a fair amount of Hilton, but my worry with bend but dont break and lots of two deep safeties is that, given Luck's mobility, Pats are going to be playing a lot of contain rush as well so Luck will have time to throw. That seems like a recipe to be picked apart.Super Nomario said:
I don't think your instinct here is wrong, I'd just add that, of all of our CBs, Arrington might suddenly be the LEAST healthy. Talib has healed up some, and Dennard is back practicing after quite a layoff, whereas the last time we saw Arrington, he was pulling up lame-ish for about the third straight game.Super Nomario said:
Edited because I don't think it's right or fair to refer to our top cornerback as "Taliban," even if it is autocorrect's fault.
Tom Brady, career numbers in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Here's his game log first, then the totals and average per game numbers:
1/19/02 vs Oak - 32-52 (61.5%), 312 yds, 0 td, 1 int, W
1/10/04 vs Ten - 21-41 (51.2%), 201 yds, 1 td, 0 int, W
1/16/05 vs Ind - 18-27 (66.7%), 144 yds, 1 td, 0 int, W
1/14/06 at Den - 20-36 (55.6%), 341 yds, 1 td, 2 int, L
1/7/07 vs NYJ - 22-34 (64.7%), 212 yds, 2 td, 0 int, W
1/12/08 vs Jax - 26-28 (92.9%), 262 yds, 3 td, 0 int, W
1/16/11 vs NYJ - 29-45 (64.4%), 299 yds, 2 td, 1 int, L
1/14/12 vs Den - 26-34 (76.5%), 363 yds, 6 td, 1 int, W
1/13/13 vs Hou - 25-40 (62.5%), 344 yds, 3 td, 0 int, W
TOTALS - 219-337 (65.0%), 2478 yds, 19 td, 5 int, 7-2 record
AVERAGE - 24.3-37.4 (65.0%), 275.3 yds, 2.1 td, 0.6 int
Not sure this is predictive of anything, but it seems that generally he has success in this round. Hope it continues on Saturday.
1/19/02 vs Oak - 32-52 (61.5%), 312 yds, 0 td, 1 int, W
1/10/04 vs Ten - 21-41 (51.2%), 201 yds, 1 td, 0 int, W
1/16/05 vs Ind - 18-27 (66.7%), 144 yds, 1 td, 0 int, W
1/14/06 at Den - 20-36 (55.6%), 341 yds, 1 td, 2 int, L
1/7/07 vs NYJ - 22-34 (64.7%), 212 yds, 2 td, 0 int, W
1/12/08 vs Jax - 26-28 (92.9%), 262 yds, 3 td, 0 int, W
1/16/11 vs NYJ - 29-45 (64.4%), 299 yds, 2 td, 1 int, L
1/14/12 vs Den - 26-34 (76.5%), 363 yds, 6 td, 1 int, W
1/13/13 vs Hou - 25-40 (62.5%), 344 yds, 3 td, 0 int, W
TOTALS - 219-337 (65.0%), 2478 yds, 19 td, 5 int, 7-2 record
AVERAGE - 24.3-37.4 (65.0%), 275.3 yds, 2.1 td, 0.6 int
Not sure this is predictive of anything, but it seems that generally he has success in this round. Hope it continues on Saturday.
I know I'm referencing something stupid and not terribly analytic when I ask this, but on what basis do you say that Arrington's our fastest corner? His recorded 40 time (4.44) is the same as Talib's. I'm not trying to criticize, just curious what you're going off of.Super Nomario said:
Observational, I guess. I might be selling Talib's speed short under the "big guys don't look like they're running fast" illusion. And they've used Arrington against Mike Wallace, kind of a similar speed / lack of size combo to Hilton.Wilco's Last Fan said:
mascho said:
What a fucking asshole. He knows full well why the game's in Foxboro all the time, the schedules are pre-set by the league.
He also ruined football by making those rule changes in 2004.
I hope he dies.
It's not even true. The Pats played @ Indy four straight times from 2007 through 2009. They'll play there in the regular season in 2014 and 2015 too. He's a fucking troll, but obviously a good one since every time he opens his fat mouth I want to punch him in the teeth.
RedOctober3829 said:
The hell with a blanket, get a poncho! No need for a real Mexican poncho, a Sears (rain) one will do.
Heavy rain and serious wind forecast for Saturday night. LGBT time.
Yes the blanket question was more for the Red-ette. Forecast has changed to a low of 48 with a 60% chance of showers.Frisbetarian said:
Frisbetarian said:
If you can't get to a store, Amazon has a 4-pack of ponchos available via Prime for $6.99.
http://www.amazon.com/EMERGENCY-GOTTA-HOODED-PONCHO--BLUE/dp/B002OD1LTA
Probably not as good as the vinyl ones, but for $1.75, can't complain. Has good enough reviews.
FWIW, the weather guys (geeks) on AmericanWX think this could be a pretty big event, with heavy rains and winds possibly gusting to 50 MPH. The wind was the Tolland guy who always overstates things, though, so it needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
Aside from Hilton the Colt that scares me the most is Donald Brown. He averaged 5.3 YPC on the season and is also very good catching out of the backfield.
It is rather mystifying why IND still gives Trent Richardson as much work as they do because Brown is clearly a better fit in the system at this time.
We need to hope they continue this practice because otherwise he could really give NE fits. I have nightmares of watching Hightower get abused on screens and dump-offs to Brown.
What will make matters even worse is if they are in nickel with 2 deep safeties to account for Hilton.
It is rather mystifying why IND still gives Trent Richardson as much work as they do because Brown is clearly a better fit in the system at this time.
We need to hope they continue this practice because otherwise he could really give NE fits. I have nightmares of watching Hightower get abused on screens and dump-offs to Brown.
What will make matters even worse is if they are in nickel with 2 deep safeties to account for Hilton.
However, if there is bad weather that bothers the passing game, that makes it easier to key on Brown.
And his last 4 games do have some overall good numbers, but he's busted a long one in 2 of them to give him those gaudy numbers (and yes, I know those runs matter), and one other game wasn't that good:
vs. Hou: 5 for 38, long of 26 (4/12 outside of that)
vs. KC: 10 for 79, long of 51 (9/28 outside of that)
vs. Jax: 12 for 31
vs. KC: 11 for 55
As to his receiving, he had 27 catches on the year, but his last 4 games show:
vs. Hou: 0 catches
vs. KC: 2 for 31 (but one went for 33 the other for -2)
vs. Jax: 3 for 4 yards (yes, 4 yards on 3 catches--that was one catch for 9 yards and 2 others for -5)
vs. KC: 4 for 47
So, stop his big plays (and again, yes these matter, especially in a one off game) and hope that his solid week against reeling KC defense was just that--a good game agaisnt a struggling team.
And his last 4 games do have some overall good numbers, but he's busted a long one in 2 of them to give him those gaudy numbers (and yes, I know those runs matter), and one other game wasn't that good:
vs. Hou: 5 for 38, long of 26 (4/12 outside of that)
vs. KC: 10 for 79, long of 51 (9/28 outside of that)
vs. Jax: 12 for 31
vs. KC: 11 for 55
As to his receiving, he had 27 catches on the year, but his last 4 games show:
vs. Hou: 0 catches
vs. KC: 2 for 31 (but one went for 33 the other for -2)
vs. Jax: 3 for 4 yards (yes, 4 yards on 3 catches--that was one catch for 9 yards and 2 others for -5)
vs. KC: 4 for 47
So, stop his big plays (and again, yes these matter, especially in a one off game) and hope that his solid week against reeling KC defense was just that--a good game agaisnt a struggling team.
Not really. It's FieldTurf. Unless its like the Buffalo game, running and cutting wont be affected by the rain.BigSoxFan said:
I like the matchup enough straight up that Id rather not increase variance with fumbles and guys slipping at the wrong time and ball squirting up out of receivers hands.DrewDawg said:
Brady has also looked like shit in rain and wind this year. Thad Lewis looked much better and much more comfortable than Brady in the weather in week 17. Im not sure if its just because rain correlated with facing good defenses or because this passing offense doesnt work particularly well in the rain, but Id rather not find out.
There is always the factor of whether or not the Colts (and Patriots) have the best kind of cleats/spikes for the weather that shows up. Sometimes teams don't adjust until the second half. Watch for guys falling down early.RedOctober3829 said:
Let's not make Hilton out to be Megatron here.
Yes he was HUGE last game and in week 17, but as someone that owned him in fantasy he's very inconsistent.
He's submitted the following games as well:
3 for 20 yards
2 for 13 yards
4 for 45 yards
8 for 43 yards
2 for 27 yards
5 for 44 yards
5 for 38 yards
5 for 46 yards
2 for 7 yards
That's 9 of 17 games played where he's under 50 yards and he had another game where he was only at 52 yards. He only scored TDs in 2 regular season games this year--2 against Seattle and 3 against Houston.
Yes he was HUGE last game and in week 17, but as someone that owned him in fantasy he's very inconsistent.
He's submitted the following games as well:
3 for 20 yards
2 for 13 yards
4 for 45 yards
8 for 43 yards
2 for 27 yards
5 for 44 yards
5 for 38 yards
5 for 46 yards
2 for 7 yards
That's 9 of 17 games played where he's under 50 yards and he had another game where he was only at 52 yards. He only scored TDs in 2 regular season games this year--2 against Seattle and 3 against Houston.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
mascho said:
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Ralphwiggum said:
Old Fart Tree said:
He no longer has a job. He doesn't work for a football team. His words mean as much as that of your proverbial cranky uncle.
He is also 72 years old, and will also die long before most of us, barring SJH getting a stress-induced heart attack. We can have a toast then. But even now, fate and the tides of the world have long since washed him up to shore. He, like Saruman, has nothing left but his words. That's the best revenge.
BigSoxFan said:
It also helps neutralize Stevan Ridley.
No fucking way BB hands him the ball in the rain.