Same. Cora’s smirk may be as close to a leak as we’re gonna get from the FO whether there was actually a Boston visit or no.
Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years
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Does he have a significant other? If so, that's who we should be trying to sell our city to...
Maybe a gift basket from SoSH???
Maybe a gift basket from SoSH???
Here's a welcome to NY gift. We're looking forward to seeing you and YY in the Toilet Vol. 2, sincerely, Hal Steinbrenner and the NYY staff and team.
That’s about 5 wins give or take. At $35 million you are coming out ok. Not a bargain, certainly. But that is a nice foundation. That would make him a solid building block, not savior.
Edit — also there is bullpen synergy, I think, when you have inning eaters. You can arrange the bullpen as you like to try to optimize.
Given his age, league adjustment, etc. I’d consider that a win. It would be even more of a win if the path to get there involved pitch assortment and he finished strong.
I also think that consideration has to be given to whether or not he'll pitch every 5th or 6th day.
I took some shots at Jim Bowden yesterday. Because he's always wrong. But if this report that the Mets offered $275 is accurate, it will fall squarely within Bowden's claim that bids are ranging between $250 and $300. I'm gonna hold off on the mea culpa for now--because Jim Bowden is always wrong and we don't have any confirmation yet--but let's just say mea-be culpa.
There is of course enormous value in using ‘Wins’ to compare players, and maybe this has come up before, but it gets squirrelly for me when applied to an SP in the ‘Ace-case’ when looking at actual wins. Like 98-00 Pedro went 19-7, 23-4 and 18-6…how much is that worth?
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It’s very blunt for sure. In the Pedro case, with 220 innings each year, there’s like compounding interest. It’s very valuable. I was just using it as an imperfect measuring stick to think about what we would be getting for $35m.
He's clearly talking about WAR, not bullshit wins.
Pedro was worth 5.7, 11.6 and 9.4 wins between 1998-2000.
Whoops, that went over my head. I thought he was saying I discounted the value of large volume effective starting pitching. But, yeah, I was talking about WAR. Sorry.
It’s bullshit, but less so. I mean, if you are trying to measure what you are getting for your dollars for a starting pitcher, you could certainly do a lot worse than looking at the innings he chews up and the rate at which he gives up runs while doing it.
Wow thanks for adding that gem.
Wouldn’t want any bullshit actual wins, but I’ll take the knowledge with the snark
I think this points to just how effective YY’s (and more specifically his agent’s) strategy has been: the price has keeps going up in media reports, almost only because there’s nothing to talk about, but teams haven’t just decided to ignore the whole “smaller size has never thrown a pitch in MLB” uncertainty of it (or comparisons to other SP salaries in MLB)and are going to bake that into his contract offers.
… I’m curious, given that YY becomes a very strong candidate for ROY consideration, is there extra monetary value to the signing that can be added to taking aim at the extra draft pick?
I could be wrong but I thought Japanese league players weren't eligible for the extra pick?
No, the player has to appear on a prospect list before the season for that extra pick rule to come into play. I don't think he'd be included.
heh heh... yeah. And how they can be realized in the cozy streets of bunker hill.
Pedro's stretch from 1998-2000 is arguably the most dominant 3 year stretch of any pitcher in history compared to the rest of the league. I'll gladly take that.
I disagree; he’s eligible for those lists based on his prospect/ ROY eligibility. When Masa came over there were several outlets that stated the reason he wasn’t included is because they didn’t view him as a good prospect, not because of his age or that he’d been playing professionally in NPB.
Edited to correct an auto correct for Masa, and to add that I seem to remember that at least one prospect outlet mentioned back then that YY would get ranked (as a comparison between the two)
More than that...his stretch from 1997-2003 is the best 7-year stretch in the history of the sport as well. All starting when he was 25 years of age. And even two years after that, even though he was no longer this absolute monster on the mound, he followed this 7-year stretch up with these two seasons:
2004: 16-9, 3.90 era, 3.58 fip, 124 era+, 1.17 whip, 9.4 k/9, 5.5 bWAR
2005: 15-8, 2.82 era, 2.95 fip, 146 era+, 0.95 whip, 8.6 k/9, 7.0 bWAR
So yeah, that would work.
I'm sure you've all seen this quote, but if you haven't-
“Fifteen years ago, I was sitting under a mango tree, without fifty cents to pay for a bus,” Martinez said then, not unhappily. “And today, I was the center of attention of the whole city of New York.”
Is it possible to feel love for someone that you've never actually met?
“Fifteen years ago, I was sitting under a mango tree, without fifty cents to pay for a bus,” Martinez said then, not unhappily. “And today, I was the center of attention of the whole city of New York.”
Is it possible to feel love for someone that you've never actually met?
The weirdest thing about all these leaks and comments is I could've sworn Yamamoto wanted to keep a lid on and prevent all those leaks.
And from all this, it feels like the Sox and Giants have done well there.
And from all this, it feels like the Sox and Giants have done well there.
I’ve read that it impacts the posting fee to his NPB club though. . . . . that only the guaranteed money in the contract can be counted towards the posting fee. Does that complicate things at all?
I think you're combining two things here: Fangraphs I think is the only prospect list to include Japanese veterans and they chose not to include Yoshida.
To get a rookie of the year compensation pick:
"Players must be Top 100 in two of the lists compiled by MLB.com, Baseball America or ESPN to qualify."
And I don't think that's possible for a Japanese veteran, I think at most one of those three lists include them.
Yes, indeed it is. Not only was Pedro a genius athlete, he's an intelligent, soulful guy. Can't believe we had him and Ortiz on the same team. Two larger than life figures, and maybe my two all-time fav Red Sox (along with Pedey, Betts, Fisk).
But we digress. 35/yr (if you include posting fee) for 7-8 prime years of YY will likely be WAR justified if YY is what he is projected to be. His Japanese stats are indeed DOMINANT, and given his predecessors' performances, I think we can safely expect him to be very good. Will he be an all-star caliber P1. We'll see. There is risk.
I think as much as anything, the team needs an anchor in that rotation, and it does need some star power - an "alpha" so to speak. There are a variety of reasons I think this, though they are subjective and not statistical. I'd likely get an earful articulating them on this site, but suffice it to say, I think YY coming here will change the dynamic of the franchise, and truly ignite a new "era." But alas, there IS a breaking point in terms of money. I mean, if gets to 400 Million, then you can get potentially 3 quality players for roughly the same amount.
And where to draw the line is another subjective exercise, full of conjecture, etc...
Heard last night that the Dodgers were willing to go “as high as $275M” on Yamamoto, and now that the Mets have made an offer “in excess of $275M”, which implies its less than $300M. Obviously the number of years is important - but after reading that, I’m feeling more confident the Red Sox will put forth the best offer in terms of money, and flexibility.
You’re paying him ~$30M regardless of whether he’s Pedro Martinez or Mark Portugal. Or 2020-2023 Chris Sale. That’s the risk. I’d offer him that, plus incentives that can take it up to $40-45M if he’s like, really, really, really good. Maybe have the incentives also carry over into the following years, especially in the case of opt-out seasons.
Sounds crazy, but if he comes in here, and is putting up a 2.20 ERA over 190 innings or so, would anyone really care if his salary jumped from $32M to $42M?
You’re paying him ~$30M regardless of whether he’s Pedro Martinez or Mark Portugal. Or 2020-2023 Chris Sale. That’s the risk. I’d offer him that, plus incentives that can take it up to $40-45M if he’s like, really, really, really good. Maybe have the incentives also carry over into the following years, especially in the case of opt-out seasons.
Sounds crazy, but if he comes in here, and is putting up a 2.20 ERA over 190 innings or so, would anyone really care if his salary jumped from $32M to $42M?
Those parameters are almost exactly what Spencer Strider did in 2023. 186 IP, 115 ERA+.
Strider posted a 3.86 ERA, but a 2.85 FIP, which was best in the league. Despite that, his season was “only” good for 3.4 WAR.
Yoshida was #88 for Baseball America pre-season rankings last year so unless they've since changed their eligibility I'd assume that Yamamoto will be in the top 5 or so this year.
Strider is a great case for understanding some of the differences in WAR between the two companies when it comes to pitchers. I think you've got a little apples and oranges going on, because you cite FIP but then give the bref WAR number. Fangraphs is the one that uses FIP more heavily for WAR for pitchers, while bref tries to go at it a different way. Strider's fWAR last year was 5.5.
OK, but I don’t think the other two lists include them and you need to be on 2 of 3 to qualify.
20 pages of no content anxiety posts mixed in with some vague Tweets and then this goes unloved? That can't happen.
I snarkily surmised a few days ago that he's been planting easter eggs with each team to determine who is leaking.
Actually I was thinking of something (I thought) Kiley McDaniel published after the signing. It would also be weird (IMO) for MLB’s own ranking system to make an arbitrary decision not to rank someone who’s prospect eligible by adding their own criteria outside of the league rules (of course that points to just how bonkers it is to have subjective media analysis ensconced in the rules of the game and CBA, and having direct consequences on MLB talent acquisition, but that’s for the business of baseball thread).
The 180 IP would be great and a huge boon for the entire staff. That ERA+ would be very similar to Crawford and Pivetta last year, who were at 113 (in 129 and 142 IP respectively.)
Based on their numbers and Fenway's park factor this year, that would translate to a Yamamoto ERA right around 4.00. Which would have many fans and pundits declaring him a big disappointment. Pundits gonna pundit. "Overpaid innings eater!" "Glorified Pivetta!"
I'd be really happy if we got him and he did that though.
It’s great to have, but when that’s a big reason why you should want to be in Boston you’re not close to getting him. It’s a nice touch, but that should be like 9th on the list in terms of a pitch to him.
An interesting tidbit from Passan's article earlier this week:
"Everything Yamamoto does is in service of one goal: moving with purpose. As MLB teams have learned since the Orix Buffaloes posted him Nov. 20, paving his way to sign with a major league team for hundreds of millions of dollars, Yamamoto's meticulous, disciplined approach is not limited to the baseball field. Executives who have met with Yamamoto admire his preparedness. For years, he has awaited this moment. He peppered his Orix teammates who had played in the big leagues with questions about MLB. He overhauled his delivery to eliminate a weakness that could be exploited here. This year, he sent his best friend, who serves as his assistant, to Toronto to take English classes, travel to major league cities across the United States and collate information that would better inform his ultimate decision."
I'm guessing at least the best friend has been to Fenway. And obviously Yoshida is there. Maybe he was comfortable enough with Boston to keep them in consideration whereas he wasn't taking the Mets seriously until Cohen got more involved so he went specifically to visit Queens. Wasn't the reporting that he only visited the Yankees after they found out he was in NY visiting the Mets?
Some of the other former AL East guys he's played with besides Marwin:
- Yoshi Tsutsugo - played in Tampa from 2020 to 2021. Didn't play for Orix but they know each other from the national team.
- Adam Jones - played for Orix from 2020 to 2021. I guess that's a point against Boston if Yamamoto listens to him.
No doubt. However, at least some fans wanting YY signed to a massive deal by the Sox also have decried the Sale extension as a crippling mistake. What happens if YY has a dominant first year or two, and then breaks down with eight years left on his deal?
Basically like a healthier version of Wacha (last year) or Pivetta (this year)? I think it would be something of a disappointment.
I think you'd hope for something like what Zach Eflin gave the Rays last year.
*sigh*
He's 25, hasn't been injured and doesn't have a year left on his contract. Sale wasn't, had been, and did.
FWIW, Fangraphs projects him as 3.1 WAR in 2024, which would have been best on the Sox staff in 2023 and tied for 26th in baseball right behind Gilbert.
I’m in this camp. Decried the Sale extension, but willing to give Yamamoto 10 years or whatever. Here’s where I am between the two.
1: Yamamoto is five years younger than Chris Sale was at the time of his extension.
2: If you want to sign Yamamoto, you have to give him the years. We still had Chris Sale for another year when we gave him that extension.
3: Chris Sale was showing signs of breaking down in 2018. Yamamoto has no real injury history.
4: The Chris Sale extension came at a time we had multiple key younger players, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, who were not under contract long term. There was already worry about our chances of keeping our young core together when we inexplicably extended Chris Sale. Right now we have money to spend, and a lot more coming off the books after 2024. Our current core is earlier in their “years of control” cycle than our 2018 core was, with several more on the way. We could also possibly extend guys like Casas and Bello for less now than we could in say 2026.
5: Yamamoto will almost certainly get an opt out after year 3-5, which may (or may not) give the team a second opportunity to decide if we want to hang on to him into his 30s. I’d try to get creative here. Front load years 1-4 at $40M or so per year, then offer an opt-out. Subsequent years at $25M. Team can nullify the opt-out by picking up the next two years at $40-45M per. Repeat every two years.
This almost goads Yamamoto into opting out after year four, so long as he is at least “good” - and gives the Red Sox another chance to reevaluate where they are and where they want to go with this contract. I mean, if he sucks, you eat the whole $150M over the last six years, but you’re going to do that anyway.
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All long-term contracts for pitchers are risks, but given YY's ability and age it's worth the risk. I don't care that he's never thrown a pitch in MLB before as technology and analytics can predict his results in MLB. If the Red Sox don't want to go all out to get YY, then what other big-time free agent will they bid for?
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