Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years
- Thread starter TimScribble
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I’m measured in my reaction to the offseason (so far), but I think the reason they didn’t get Soto is that they didn’t want him, given the cost. They could have gone to the currency exchange window and got whatever SD wanted.
Have you considered the crazy possibility that fans aren't reacting solely to something that happened yesterday? Or is it hard to consider the cumulative impact of the last five years when you're fan policing?
Perhaps. Breslow has said they want pitching and are willing to trade position player prospects to acquire it. So maybe he wouldn’t want to dedicate any resources beyond money to Soto. But just on the surface level of why weren’t the Sox “mentioned” regarding Soto, it’s clear that what we just weren’t an obvious fit for what the Padres wanted in return.
Yeah, I wonder if there’s a change in the rules down the line. Seems like it should not be a legal thing to do with deferring all the money 20 years down the line.
Or closer to Japan and in a place where the weather is better. (Not in my opinion, I live in Philly because I like to walk and the change of seasons.)
I think the idea of “Tampa North” was a bit on the nose; but Bloom was canned for similar reasons to Cherington. Ultimately almost all FA contracts are going to be bad deals as aging curves are going to put peak production in a player’s controllable years. The Sox are looking for a model where they can get players while they’re likely to be better (and cheaper). I think the issue is the Sox (and their voiciferous fans) also expect to contend , so they haven’t been willing to dump ML players and call off the season for prospects when that was ultimately the better move.
When you couple in that top tier talent isn’t usually available in a deadline deal, the real question is about if the Sox have improved their scouting and player dev enough to take advantage of who is available. Bloom had some good picks, but a lot of his deals went nowhere …
The weather argument is definitely fair.
The “closer to Japan” argument is always funny to me though. They’re not flying home during the season, they’re flying home during the offseason. And when they do:
It’s 14 hours from Boston/New York/Philly to Tokyo.
It’s 12 hours from LAX to Tokyo.
I am wondering whether "mentions" ( or tweets rumors etc) are a valid form of analytical currency. I know its all we have sometimes, but the "are they 'in on him'" narrative based on the likes of Heyman et al is corrosive to brain function/makes idiots of us all..
Does anyone out there tally up accuracy like some do for the (much easier) preseason predictions?
It also should be noted his agent is a LA local who also represents Glasnow.
With all the expansion around the old ballyard, Henry and Co. should build out a new attraction called the Fenway Friendzone where fans can be wowed by the close-but-never-really-in-it free agents of the post-Mookie era. The Yamamoto and Lugo placards are being crafted as we speak.
The guy was 45 minutes away and wouldn't even come up to Boston. Ouch.
The guy was 45 minutes away and wouldn't even come up to Boston. Ouch.
Yes it’s an interesting question. One thing this drama has highlighted is the kind of supporting roles that these scooplette reporters play. This thread has been a lot of fun for me, and one of the things that gave it momentum was that every few hours one of these insider types would drop some cryptic and vaguely sourced “what I’m hearing” tweet. Most of it turned out to be complete bullshit…but it added to the entertainment. I’m sure that at some point these guys recognize that that’s their role in all of this. I mean, with Ohtani, one of them breathlessly reported that he was on a plane to Toronto. The interest shut down. It was complete bullshit. But it was fun. Maybe that’s just their role?
Not only that but the obvious point that news that incites anger, scorn or ridicule travels faster and farther. I trust the actual reporters (for the most part), but there's a thin and not always perceptible line in the media sphere. It's absolutely true that "digital editors" are constantly tweaking headlines and tweet constructions to stoke and maximize outrage. And it works!
This is mostly right. I don't remember the Manny deal - but IIRC the Sox have never won a bidding war with the Yankees. What HAS changed is there are now more teams willing to spend (particularly the Mets and Dodgers). Boston has a huge need - and the number of top-end free agents are dwindling.
The pressure to win will be unbelievable. How much will a ticket to a game cost now?
Honestly, I can't ever remember this type of super team before. When the MFY were signing all those stars in the early 2000s, they were nearly all in their 30s and on the back 9 of their careers. This feels different.
Probably still not as much as a ticket to watch the Boston Red Sox! Who for some reason can't be reasonably expected to compete for top of the market free agents.
It’s interesting that the Yankees didn’t have the highest offer (although until the details of the negotiations come out, we won’t know who was prepared to do what); the Yankees haven’t spent like the Yankees for awhile (excepting Cole & Judge) and have seemed to try to get by on vibes. I’d be worried if the Sox took that approach
Exactly. It's why he was never coming to Boston and I never assumed he would. There were literally zero reasons to point to Boston that others wouldn't be able to match or beat and offer "more" to a player that was coming from Japan, assuming he didn't hate everything about Japanese culture and wanted to be as far from it as he could.
To be clear, I agree this has nothing to do with FSG ownership being cheap or if Breslow, or Bloom or Theo (whom I consider the greatest executive in modern baseball history) could have done. Maybe Steve Cohen could have literally offered him $750m and LAD might not have beaten that, but that was the only scenario where he didn't end up a Dodger or a Yankee.
I'm glad he's not a Yankee. I'm also glad their fans get to feel that sting of not being able to just be the team that offers to match the highest offer and get the player. Eff them. (To be clear, I don't mean this directed at some of the excellent Yankee fan posters on here as any manner of attack. But I'm really glad he's not a Yankee because I think he's going to be an excellent pitcher. Just one that was always only considering LAD or NYY).
Hopefully now the real off-season begins. The players the Red Sox have both a gigantic gaping need for (not Ohtani or Soto) and might consider Boston (not Yamamoto) will now be in play, and it's time to see what Breslow does. At my core I really don't believe that FSG suddenly no longer cares about the Red Sox being good and I don't believe they're cheap. I believe the former baseball operations department wanted to spend their $Luxury Tax Threshold in one manner so they let him. Now we'll see how Breslow wants to spend it.
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Huh? First of all, they offered him 10/300 as compared to 12/325, clear that he preferred to go to LAD if the offers were close, which they were.
Secondly as of this AM:
Projected 40-Man #MLB CBT Payrolls (including estimated arbitration/pre-arbitration salaries)
1. #Mets, $283M
2. #Yankees, $280M
3. #Dodgers, $277M
4. #Braves, $274M
5. #Phillies, $248M
This guy gets it. Won't somebody please thing of those poor Boston sports fans, it's been a whole five years since a duck boat parade made it way down Boylston Street. The horror.
A couple of key points regarding LA:
Celebrity lifestyle matters to some athletes, and LA probably has the best to offer on that front. And while the flying time distance to Japan is not that much shorter (2 hours of 14), there is a much larger Japanese community and Asian community in general in LA than there is in Boston, and that might matter to him as well. Could enough $$$ overcome these draws? Maybe, but unless the Sox were prepared to offer something like 10/$450M, there is a point where the marginal money difference becomes less important.
Celebrity lifestyle matters to some athletes, and LA probably has the best to offer on that front. And while the flying time distance to Japan is not that much shorter (2 hours of 14), there is a much larger Japanese community and Asian community in general in LA than there is in Boston, and that might matter to him as well. Could enough $$$ overcome these draws? Maybe, but unless the Sox were prepared to offer something like 10/$450M, there is a point where the marginal money difference becomes less important.
I don't see anyone claiming hardship because the Sox haven't won a title in 5 years.
People are frustrated because the Sox haven't even attempted to truly compete since 2019.
It's not as much travel time as it is accessibility to the Japanese TV market. 7pm starts in LA are early lunch starts in Japan. Makes a difference relative to the East Coast in terms of people getting a glance of Yamamoto and Ohtani. A Friday or Saturday night start for Yamamoto is a midday weekend event in Japan... not inconsequential for them.
Sadly for Mets fans, this post could be accompanied by the song, "One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong..."
Where are those numbers from? I'm seeing different from cot's: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
1. Mets 296.6
2. Dodgers 288.3
3. Yankees 287.1
4. Braves 263.3
5. Phillies 252.7
And I really hope that's right cause it's putting y'all in worse draft pick territory
Let's not do this again. 2021 was the best case outcome; 2022 and 2023 were lower tier outcomes of similar approaches.
I'm now reading on SoSH that 2025 may not even be a realistic year for contending.
How long are we supposed to wait?
Yep. People keep saying this "closer to Japan" thing without remembering that the earth is round.
There very well could be cultural reasons (existing Japanese population, access to the right food, history of/current Japanese players), but a couple of extra hours in a first class seat isn't that. Proximity to winning, emphasis on GFIN--that makes plenty of sense.
I missed that he NYY offer was only 10 years - mea culpa (although the total value point stands, and getting an extra $25 M as an annuity when you may be broken down at the end of your career isn’t something to sneeze at).
The total CBT figures don’t really apply IMO though: the NYY aren’t moving in and blowing everyone out of the water for the premier FA they want as they did when old man Steinbrenner was running things. No one is looking at the NYY roster and thinking that they’re assembling a super team through FA.
That this is the Dodgers signing him and not the Yankees is obviously huge for the Sox. The only place the the Sox would have to worry about the Dodgers in the post-season is after BOTH teams have gone through a post-season gauntlet. Had the signing been with NYY, the Sox would have to deal with Yamamoto as a roadblock to the playoffs as well as during the playoffs. Here... the Dodgers be the NL teams' problem. That said, I'm not optimistic that the Sox could make the '24 playoffs, much less have a great run in the '24 playoffs. Not to say that I think they'll suck, but this smells like a foundational year a la the '85 Sox.
But, damn the Dodgers have taken a significant risk. On the one hand, they've got the reigning AL MVP and a potential ROY/CY Young winner for '24. On the other hand, they may very well have shelled out over $1B for a DH and Dice-K 2.0.
But, damn the Dodgers have taken a significant risk. On the one hand, they've got the reigning AL MVP and a potential ROY/CY Young winner for '24. On the other hand, they may very well have shelled out over $1B for a DH and Dice-K 2.0.
Yeah, planes don’t just fly latitudinally. I learned that long ago on MY flight to Tokyo!
Imanaga is certainly interesting, although his HR rate is scary high, reminiscent of Kei Igawa. Stuff seems to be much better, though.
Trade market will be intriguing to watch; if the Sox aren’t interested in rentals and / or giving up their top prospects, not sure how much they can accomplish, though. Difficult to trade for controllable pitching when you don’t have pitching prospects to trade. But, things can evolve rapidly.
I don't have to imagine it. I flew through California in the spring to Japan and am spending some extra cash to fly direct from Boston this time. Less time in the air is awesome, but not millions of dollars of awesome. And 11 hours of time zone difference vs. 14 isn't particularly meaningful either.
Suppose that everyone is different, fine. But at his income level, it's lay-flat seats, hot towels, and bottomless champagne.
Ha, sounds like maybe you are just more brave than I am! I used to be more tolerant, but at this point I imagine that at any income level it’s boredom, misery, jet lag, and de hydration.
Maybe that’s why I work in my basement now
To be fair, East Coast teams like the Sox have a similar advantage with Dominican and other Caribbean players.
Do we have to do the "people upset with the team are stupid/reactionary/ungrateful/sports radio callers" schtick on every thread concerning every sport?
When did "smart, reasonable fans are the ones who never question ownership" become the official mantra of SoSH? God, the hand wringing.
When did "smart, reasonable fans are the ones who never question ownership" become the official mantra of SoSH? God, the hand wringing.
Well, I really wanted him, even though I have questions about how that frame will hold up. Having said that, it certainly appears that it was always going to be the Dodgers.
So let's see what Breslow's next moves are. I'd love to see him move quickly on Imanaga and then some type of trade. That would be fun.
So let's see what Breslow's next moves are. I'd love to see him move quickly on Imanaga and then some type of trade. That would be fun.
By and large, they haven’t chosen to be competitive since the Mookie trade. 3 last place finishes in 4 years. Selling the fans on “bridge years” year after year. Dumpster diving for starting pitching. Not investing in the team at the trade deadline the last two years. Screwing up the luxury tax in 2022. I could go on.
So your solution is just accept whatever they do and if you don’t like it, go follow another team? Give me a break. This offseason is a referendum on if this ownership group is still serious about winning or just happy making their money. They went under the luxury tax last year so they could go “full throttle” this winter(their words, not mine). If they show up in February without clear upgrades at the top of the rotation, it tells me all I need to know about where their priorities are.
Boston is becoming less and less of a destination players want to come to ever year that goes by that they finish in last place. You would think 3 last place finishes in 4 years would light a fire under them. Let’s see how the rest of this offseason goes, but if they don’t build a team that is back to being a clear contender in the AL East things are going to get a lot worse PR-wise before it gets better. Sooner or later, disappointment will turn to apathy for fans and that’s the worst place you can be. The Red Sox are at best 3rd and probably closer to 4th in popularity in Boston among the teams. Another losing season comes? Yikes.
Exactly. The best Red Sox teams relied heavily on guys from the DR. Chasing your tail trying to woo Japanese players away from the West Coast doesn't seem like a good use of an offseason.
Closer to Japan isn't just about flight time (though that doesn't hurt - as a diplomat having arranged flights for grand pooh-bahs and VVIPs, such people care a lot more than I would have thought given how nice first class is), it's also about time zone differences - if you're a baseball player waking up at noon and playing games at 7pm those times fit better with Japan compared to eastern times.
Anyway, all of those things aren't mutually exclusive but mutually reinforcing - closer to Japan, stronger cultural ties of LA to Japan, emphasis on winning now all align to make LA the logical choice.
Being upset with the overall direction of the team and some of its decisions is certainly reasonable. Being upset that they tried but failed to sign a guy that likely preferred to be in LA all along is setting an unrealistic high bar for any team.
SoSH spent a year in "next off-season Yamamoto will be posted" mode, but now that he's a Dodger there was never any possible way the Red Sox could have signed him. Why is it unrealistic? How do we even know the Sox reached that number (or were particularly close) and Yamamoto chose LA for other reasons?
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