Literally every model has the Cavs better this year and getting a good pick on top. The injury risk matters of course and isn't included.
Basketball isn't baseball and can't be statistically modeled the same way. Thomas due to age, health, and size was a massive uncertainty going forward. Regardless of whether you love Irving or not, he represents a long term certainty at the position.
It's not like Boston was trading for a franchise guy when they traded for Thomas, they were trading a late first for a 5'9" guy with the reputation for being selfish, ball dominant, a defensive nonentity, and a less than stellar teammate. So Ainge might see Irving's reputation as less of a problem than the public does because he has a lot of faith in his coach to get the best out of Irving as he did Thomas before him.
You guys all went from in love with fultz (as per near universal scouting) to eh he's worse than Tatum in moments. Now the Lakers pick, which is what 50% ish maybe less of conveying and can't be number 1 is better than a nets unprotected.
I don't know of anyone but Boston media sources that talked down Fultz. After the deal a lot of people hated it and had to really talk themselves into it, and those people have mostly said "If Tatum was their preference then it's good that they got an extra pick out of it."
Most of us that were enthusiastic about the deal had Tatum as 1B in the draft pool (however I will tell you that I know more than one hard core hoops junky that had Tatum #1 and Fultz #2). I personally have Tatum and Fultz as the only guys from this year's pool with the upside of next year's top 6. And those of us that were enthusiastic about the deal saw it as a win-win. I think this obsession with "winning" trades is sort of stupid.
The Lakers pick is almost certain to be top five because the Lakers are going to play about 75% of their games against really good teams, and they're going to take a lot of poundings. By all reports Cleveland gave Boston the choice of sending the Brooklyn pick, the LA pick, or Tatum, and they chose the Brooklyn pick.
I'm OK with that as Tatum already has the sort of upside next year's guys do. And the odds are, given that Chicago and Atlanta are going all in on Tank Battle 2018!, that Brooklyn could win 30+ games (now there's a ton of uncertainty due to health issues there, but if Lin, Carroll, Lavert and Mozgov are healthy they could win 32-36 games) and the pick be 6-9 and not top five. But even here everyone that's approved of the deal admits that Ainge has balls of steel betting on the LA pick conveying, even if the odds are in his favor (and he has been pretty lucky over the years).
You have potentially no more shots to get another star. Free agency is done, and hayward and horford are the rewards. The pick Bonanza is largely done
I'd say the free agency rewards were pretty big, they still likely have a top five pick coming, and the front office has done some pretty good work. By every report their in house stats department is top of the line and they have found an awful lot of bargains along the way. They have pretty much earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of talent evaluation at the NBA level. Because they've been pretty good at picking up diamonds in the rough from other NBA rosters. And I'm not going to ding Irving for wanting to escape Cleveland before rebuilding. Just as I never dinged Doc for wanting to bail on the rebuilding situation here in Boston.