I am doubtful that SAS would jump at the offer of filler salary and the MEM pick. I think that MEM pick is far less valuable than the SAC pick
Jurassic World 3: Where the Dinosaurs have Quad Injuries and Hate Their Shoe Deals
- Thread starter Sox Puppet
- Start date
Unless you don't believe Kawhi when he says he'll be in Los Angeles a year from now, Kawhi is a one-year deal--period. You have a much better chance of resigning the other three beyond next year, and in Smart's case, that would be a prerequisite for doing the deal.
It also completely ignores the injury risk with Kawhi, although I view that as small.
The term "rental" is being overused here. There is very little historic evidence that players with max contract offers bolt in free agency. Kevin Pelton pointed out in his mailbag recently that there have only been 12 All-Stars to switch teams in free agency since the advent of the max contract in 1999 (or one every 1.5 years on average). Six of those have been post-Decision, which could be interpreted as a trend, or an outlier due to Lebron's movements and the cap spike.
In other words, if you are trading Jaylen for Kawhi you view it as a long-term roster move. It is only in the rarest of cases that guys like that leave in free agency, and it almost never happens when the incumbent team is good and putting a max offer on the table.
In other words, if you are trading Jaylen for Kawhi you view it as a long-term roster move. It is only in the rarest of cases that guys like that leave in free agency, and it almost never happens when the incumbent team is good and putting a max offer on the table.
Haven't the CBA terms changed during that timeframe, though? The team that acquires him now doesn't have the same advantage that San Antonio would have in resigning him, right?
Rozier is gone after this year. Morris is probably gone too. The Celtics don't need nor do they have the ability to pay either what the market will command next summer, particularly with so many potential picks in a guard/wing heavy 2019 draft. Smart is very iffy to return as well and he's the only guy I give any chance of being on the 2019-2020 Celtics.
So, you're effectively trading 3 guys who don't figure to be here long for another guy who may not be here long along with whatever sweeteners are needed. As such, I don't see how you can balk at trading those 3 for Kawhi unless you have grave concerns with Kyrie's health next year.
San Antonio could offer the super max, which no other team could offer. However, a team that trades for Kawhi would still hold his Bird Rights going into next summer, which brings the five-year contract offer with 15% annual increases. It's a big monetary advantage. The flip-side of this is that Kawhi could prefer a short-term deal to get back on the market after 10 years of service to get his max at 35% of the cap versus 30%.
Just a note, the CBA has mucked things up for teams with free agents as Utah found out last year. The maximum raises are 5% when you're signing a free agent, but only 8% when re-signing your own. This means that the salary difference for the first three years of the contract is pretty negligible. and it's the first three years that matter as that's when a team gets Bird Rights.
I think when we figured this out for Hayward last year the difference was less than $8 million over a three year period. So the team acquiring him absolutely has to view him as a rental because the current CBA largely negates the home court advantage in free agency.
In Leonard's case the only possible advantage is that he's going to want to terminate the next contract after the second season in order to get to his 35% max sooner, but he's also going to want that team to hold Bird Rights, so there is room for the next team to get something via sign & trade (even if only a giant trade exception).
With regards to a sign-and-trade of Smart, there are complications that have been noted above:
1.) Smart cannot have signed an offer sheet with another team. The Celtics would have to execute the sign-and-trade using their Bird rights before he signs an offer sheet elsewhere. If the Celtics match the offer sheet, Smart cannot be part of a sign-and-trade.
2.) Smart would have to agree to go to wherever the Celtics want to trade him to.
3.) While no longer officially called "base year compensation", it is likely that the Celtics would only get 50% credit on his outgoing salary. So salary matching will be difficult, as the Spurs would have to account for the full amount of Smart's new salary.
It's not impossible to work out a sign-and-trade with Smart, but just highly unlikely.
1.) Smart cannot have signed an offer sheet with another team. The Celtics would have to execute the sign-and-trade using their Bird rights before he signs an offer sheet elsewhere. If the Celtics match the offer sheet, Smart cannot be part of a sign-and-trade.
2.) Smart would have to agree to go to wherever the Celtics want to trade him to.
3.) While no longer officially called "base year compensation", it is likely that the Celtics would only get 50% credit on his outgoing salary. So salary matching will be difficult, as the Spurs would have to account for the full amount of Smart's new salary.
It's not impossible to work out a sign-and-trade with Smart, but just highly unlikely.
Fair statement: Kawhi is a Celtic if Ainge is willing to part with Brown, and isn't one otherwise.
No thanks. I don’t want to trade Brown for what seems at best a 50/50 shot of Kawhi here for 1 season.
I wasn't taking a position on whether the Celtics should trade Brown, just noting that that is probably the only realistic way Kawhi comes here.
Disagree, the Celtics could likely get Kawhi with some combination of Memphis/Sac/Rozier/Smart/Morris, as well. I don’t think San Antonio is going to do better. I don’t think I’d give all that up, though, after how last season played out with Kawhi.
Yeah this deal could get done without Jaylen but it would probably involve both Sac and Mem, which Ainge would never do. Jaylen by himself already has greater trade value than Kawhi given their age, contract status, Kawhi’s injury situation, and LA lust.
Celtics are 1 of 4 teams to have put offers in for Kawhi per Woj, Windhorst, and Ramona Shelburne. The 4 teams are the Celtics, Lakers, Sixers, and Cavs. The article mentions that the Spurs do not want to trade Leonard to the Lakers but haven't ruled it out either.
"The Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers and LA Clippers are among teams who've made offers to the Spurs for Leonard, league sources said. The Lakers, the franchise that Leonard wants to be traded to, did not have a good initial conversation with the Spurs, ESPN reported recently."
"While the Lakers came away feeling like San Antonio "shut the door on us" and the conversation never progressed or included a formal trade offer, the Spurs haven't ruled out sending Leonard to any destination, league sources said.
If Leonard can convince the rest of the NBA interested in trading for him that he'll only be a one-year rental before signing with Los Angeles in 2019, the Lakers could have the most compelling trade package to offer San Antonio.
The situation has become similar to when the Lakers were last year with the Indiana Pacers, when George informed the Pacers that he intended to sign with the Lakers as a free agent in 2018. As such, the Lakers never made a substantial offer to Indiana -- such as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, or Brandon Ingram -- as they expected George would come to them this year in free agency. But now, after a trade to Oklahoma City, George is seriously considering a return to the Thunder, as well as the possibility of joining the Lakers or others."
"The Spurs haven't ruled out a trade to the Lakers -- nor the Western Conference -- for Leonard, but are unlikely to be motivated to make a deal with Los Angeles -- or any team -- until they have the leverage to extract every possible asset.
Thus far, San Antonio hasn't been responsive to all teams who have inquired about Leonard or ruled out the possibility of trading him to any league destination, sources said."
"Leonard has been adamant that he doesn't want to step into the San Antonio locker room again, and the Spurs have been adamant that they won't be forced into a trade, or a timetable, prior to the February trading deadline, league sources said. No team talking with the Spurs about Leonard has found them to be in a rush to make a deal."
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23924558/pressure-mounting-los-angeles-lakers-acquire-kawhi-leonard
"The Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers and LA Clippers are among teams who've made offers to the Spurs for Leonard, league sources said. The Lakers, the franchise that Leonard wants to be traded to, did not have a good initial conversation with the Spurs, ESPN reported recently."
"While the Lakers came away feeling like San Antonio "shut the door on us" and the conversation never progressed or included a formal trade offer, the Spurs haven't ruled out sending Leonard to any destination, league sources said.
If Leonard can convince the rest of the NBA interested in trading for him that he'll only be a one-year rental before signing with Los Angeles in 2019, the Lakers could have the most compelling trade package to offer San Antonio.
The situation has become similar to when the Lakers were last year with the Indiana Pacers, when George informed the Pacers that he intended to sign with the Lakers as a free agent in 2018. As such, the Lakers never made a substantial offer to Indiana -- such as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, or Brandon Ingram -- as they expected George would come to them this year in free agency. But now, after a trade to Oklahoma City, George is seriously considering a return to the Thunder, as well as the possibility of joining the Lakers or others."
"The Spurs haven't ruled out a trade to the Lakers -- nor the Western Conference -- for Leonard, but are unlikely to be motivated to make a deal with Los Angeles -- or any team -- until they have the leverage to extract every possible asset.
Thus far, San Antonio hasn't been responsive to all teams who have inquired about Leonard or ruled out the possibility of trading him to any league destination, sources said."
"Leonard has been adamant that he doesn't want to step into the San Antonio locker room again, and the Spurs have been adamant that they won't be forced into a trade, or a timetable, prior to the February trading deadline, league sources said. No team talking with the Spurs about Leonard has found them to be in a rush to make a deal."
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23924558/pressure-mounting-los-angeles-lakers-acquire-kawhi-leonard
In most cases, the premise of taking less to send a guy out of the conference/division is absurd. Trading Kawhi means they know they won't win in the next few years anyway, and they are an extremely smart organization. They will just take the best offer.
Woj says LeBron is pressuring the Lakers to get Kawhi by the opt out deadline on Friday. This is probably the moment the Spurs have been waiting for. I’d guess they will offer all three of Ball, Kuzma, and Ingram (with Deng) by Friday if Pop holds out. Magic will build his 3-man superteam at all costs.
The risk of a 1-year Kawhi rental is too high for the Celts.
Unless they can steal him, (Rozier or Smart and one lottery pick-- the Memphis pick?) do not seriously pursue this.
Unless they can steal him, (Rozier or Smart and one lottery pick-- the Memphis pick?) do not seriously pursue this.
I absolutely love this stuff as there is so much on the line for the Lakers and the Spurs would love to stick it to them. This is part of the risk of playing the FA game.
The odds of LA "blinking" here are pretty high if they think it'll impact LeBron's decision. Not quite sure what that would mean but likely means Ingram, Kuzma and potentially even Ball although I would think that SA would probably try to flip him somewhere else (Clippers? Knicks?).
Not to mention the 76ers. Could be a nightmare scenario where Lebron and Leonard go to LA and George stays in OKC.
Lebron and Kawhi going to LA would be the best case scenario, IMO. A renewed LA/BOS rivalry, keeps Philly from being a direct competitor for at least another year or two, and gives the Celtics a clear path to the finals.
I would honestly be pretty surprised if the Sixers land a big fish this summer. I think they’re going to be looking at the next tier of guys. Kawhi seems like their only shot.
For sure. Plus, the heat is on Magic to do a big deal. He even promised to quit if he couldn't get it done.
Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/Deng doesn't actually work from a salary perspective, the spurs would have to sent more salary back (that's true even if it's just 3 of those 4, though then the difference is pretty easily made up). Maybe getting to send back patty mills lessens the hit of taking deng?
I think more likely Deng is not included and LAL adds a small salary like Zubac or Ennis to the Ball/Ingram/Kuzma trio to make up enough salary. LAL then stretches Deng, signs Lebron and still should have enough space for George
I know that this is a Celtics board, but it's amazing that multiple posters have said that Jaylen is off the table in any Kawhi trade, but that the Lakers should have to give up Ingram, Ball and Kuzma. Ingram isn't that far off from Jaylen on his own and Kuzma and Ball are probably both equivalent to lottery picks. If you're saying Ingram/Ball/Kuzma is what the Lakers should offer, then the Boston equivalent is something like Jaylen/SAC pick/MEM pick.
Apples and oranges. Kawhi would sign long-term with LA. There are no indications he would be willing to do the same with Boston or any other team. Kawhi has a LOT more value to the Lakers than the Celtics, especially when you factor in the potential LeBron implications. The trade offers reflect this dynamic.
Well, even if they are exactly even, one would presumably give up less for a perceived rental, which is what Leonard would be in Boston.
I don't know that Jaylen is off the table for me, but we should acknowledge that the Celtics are in a much different situation than the Lakers, and that should color what we would hypothetically be willing to give up.
The Lakers are in position to build a super team from scratch, and Kawhi is the key first piece. The Celtics have a contender already and would be making this move to marginally improve their shot at a title next year.
I don't think the relative value of Jaylen Brown versus the value of Ingram or Ball in a vacuum is the right discussion.
The Lakers are in position to build a super team from scratch, and Kawhi is the key first piece. The Celtics have a contender already and would be making this move to marginally improve their shot at a title next year.
I don't think the relative value of Jaylen Brown versus the value of Ingram or Ball in a vacuum is the right discussion.
I don’t think Ingram is that close to Brown. Unfair as it may be, Jaylen made the most of his playoff opportunity which is where a lot of his present value lies.
Besides that, I generally agree. Ball seems to be undervalued by many although I don’t think Kuzma is.
Besides that, I generally agree. Ball seems to be undervalued by many although I don’t think Kuzma is.
No it's not. The implication is that Kawhi to Boston is a rental while Kawhi to LA is decidedly not.
Is that the right way to look at it though? One could argue that if the Lakers could sign Kawhi as a free agent they should offer less now, not more, since they'd have the inside track a year from now. A capped out team like Boston would pay the premium to get him and his Bird rights on the assumption that they could sell him on the franchise long-term. We saw this exact scenario a year ago with Paul George.
It would ultimately depend on the franchise. San Antonio seems like the franchise that would value the things Jaylen does well, but that upside on Ingram would still appeal to a lot of teams. Even Kevin O'Connor mentioned in a recent podcast that in a redraft of '16 it would still go Simmons/Ingram/Brown, so I don't think it's clear cut.
If Kawhi had come out and said he only wants to go to the Celtics and would sign here next year, I would offer up Brown + picks in a second
Yup. It will be an interesting game of chicken because if LeBron stays in Cleveland, LA may drop out of the Kawhi trade market knowing that they could just sign him the following summer and the Spurs would be left with a bunch of other teams who only view Kawhi as a rental and will price accordingly.
C's might come out of this having the best package available to the Spurs if the Lakers strike out. If the Celtics could keep Kyrie/Horford/Jaylen/Tatum AND get Kahwi by using a S+T Smart, Rozier, and Morris plus picks Danny should just get a bust in the HOF.
Yup. Celtics have no chance with the Lakers involved. If they drop out, then Danny might be able to pounce. Assuming LA folds their cards, you'd be left with Cleveland offering up some combo of Love/Sexton/future picks, Philly with their Saric/Covington/Fultz trio plus picks, and Smart/Rozier/Morris/picks from Celtics.
At that point, it would probably be a mini bidding war with the 3 best teams in the Eastern Conference. Danny would have the most chips but he'd also have smallest need for Kawhi given how good his team already is.
I remain fascinated by this soap opera.
If they've already put an offer in, it cant include Smart - I wouldn't think - as he hasn't signed a new contract.
Does that mean they've packaged Kyrie or Hayward?
Could be an offer contingent on Smart being amenable to the parameters
Another part of this that may have not been said yet: Marcus Smart may be open to going to the Spurs due to his mom's failing health. It is just a short flight away.
Others have handled the rental and "Magic is desperate so he'll overpay" angles. As far as Brown vs Ingram, the two are in completely different tiers. They both have high upside on both ends of the floor, but Brown is much better now, only a bit older, and was the 3rd best player on a team that probably should have made the finals, and he has a ton of room to improve.
If the Lakers called tomorrow and offered Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma for Jaylen straight up, I seriously doubt Danny does the deal (salary considerations aside).
Would a best case be:
Lebron and Kawhi to the lakers.
Lakers blink and send the 3 kids to SA (Ball, Ingram and Kuzma)
SA then flips Ball to the Knicks
Kyrie now with no NY landing spot (eventually) resigns with boston.
Philly ends up without a dance partner (or at least without a hot one).
Hard to see LA fighting through the west. And whomever does will have been through a war (which is good for the east).
SA is (even) less of a threat coming out of the west even if still decent.
Knicks lose "something"(pick?) to get Ball. and as mentioned Ball takes a potential Kyrie landing spot away.
Philly stands pat with no reinforcements coming.
Sacramento has ANOTHER tough/super team (lakers) to contend with 4 times (they split last year) while still having to take on the Spurs 4 times (0-4 against them last year).
Celtics get to play a decimated Cavs (1-2 last year)
I suppose we could hope that Deng was somehow included to take the Spurs away (Salary) as a Smart suitor.
I know thats alot of dominos to fall but that, or some combo, might be a pretty good outcome for the Celts.
Lebron and Kawhi to the lakers.
Lakers blink and send the 3 kids to SA (Ball, Ingram and Kuzma)
SA then flips Ball to the Knicks
Kyrie now with no NY landing spot (eventually) resigns with boston.
Philly ends up without a dance partner (or at least without a hot one).
Hard to see LA fighting through the west. And whomever does will have been through a war (which is good for the east).
SA is (even) less of a threat coming out of the west even if still decent.
Knicks lose "something"(pick?) to get Ball. and as mentioned Ball takes a potential Kyrie landing spot away.
Philly stands pat with no reinforcements coming.
Sacramento has ANOTHER tough/super team (lakers) to contend with 4 times (they split last year) while still having to take on the Spurs 4 times (0-4 against them last year).
Celtics get to play a decimated Cavs (1-2 last year)
I suppose we could hope that Deng was somehow included to take the Spurs away (Salary) as a Smart suitor.
I know thats alot of dominos to fall but that, or some combo, might be a pretty good outcome for the Celts.
It can work as San Antonio isn't interested in Ball. So, in essence, a three team deal where Ball goes elsewhere for picks/lower priced players can work. Or, alternatively, Ball/Deng for picks can work.
Wonder if Phoenix would be interested in a Jackson for Ball swap in the event the Spurs pull off the hat trick of young players from LAL.
Ayton / Chandler
Chriss / Bender
Warren / Bridges
Booker / Knight
Ball / Ulis
That's a pretty good squad from a talent standpoint but it would obviously need more vets.
Ayton / Chandler
Chriss / Bender
Warren / Bridges
Booker / Knight
Ball / Ulis
That's a pretty good squad from a talent standpoint but it would obviously need more vets.