Jurassic World 3: Where the Dinosaurs have Quad Injuries and Hate Their Shoe Deals

[lovegtm]

Saric and Covington are both starters on good contracts and Kawhi is a rental. I think that’s a good offer for a guy who wants to leave and in line with other comparable situations.

Starters on good contracts are exactly the assets you don't want if you're starting a rebuild. The most you can flip them for is late 1sts, and they won't be part of the next championship team. That's one reason I hated Jae for Cleveland in that deal: the Cavs weren't championship contenders without Kyrie, Jae had no room to make a leap, and his re-trade value was low.

The Oladipo trade is a better template: take a guy who has big upside but hasn't hit it for whatever reason. I'd much much rather get Fultz than Saric/Covington in the Spurs' spot.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Starters on good contracts are exactly the assets you don't want if you're starting a rebuild. The most you can flip them for is late 1sts, and they won't be part of the next championship team. That's one reason I hated Jae for Cleveland in that deal: the Cavs weren't championship contenders without Kyrie, Jae had no room to make a leap, and his re-trade value was low.

The Oladipo trade is a better template: take a guy who has big upside but hasn't hit it for whatever reason. I'd much much rather get Fultz than Saric/Covington in the Spurs' spot.

The Spurs aren’t interested in a full rebuild or they would otherwise be trading Aldridge as well. Saric can be part of the next good Spurs team. Covington can be their short term SF and salary for future deals, if needed. If the Spurs don’t want his deal, then he can be replaced with Bayless/Fultz. So, I see the following options:

Saric/Covington/2019 Sixers/2021 Heat

Or

Saric/Fultz/Bayless/Miami 2021

The Spurs are in no rush so we’ll see if Philly blinks. If I’m the Spurs, I try to get Mills contract moved as part of the deal.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Reports now that Spurs are set on keeping Kawhi or trading him to EC team. Philly must be all over this.

Saric
Covington
2019 #1
Miami 2021

Would be very risky given Kawhi’s contract situation but Celtics can’t beat that without giving up a piece they don’t want to give up.

I think this is a bad idea for Philly. Kawhi is bolting and they still likely won’t beat Boston and almost certainly not Golden State.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think this is a bad idea for Philly. Kawhi is bolting and they still likely won’t beat Boston and almost certainly not Golden State.

I wouldn’t do it but I think they’re feeling real pressure to match up with a team that just beat them in 5 games without their starting all-star backcourt. If both Philly and Boston balk at the Spurs’ price, I really don’t know who else joins the fray. Maybe New York and Cleveland if LeBron stays. I think there’s a decent chance Spurs hang onto him to start the season, at least.

 

[JCizzle]

I wouldn’t do it but I think they’re feeling real pressure to match up with a team that just beat them in 5 games without their starting all-star backcourt. If both Philly and Boston balk at the Spurs’ price, I really don’t know who else joins the fray. Maybe New York and Cleveland if LeBron stays. I think there’s a decent chance Spurs hang onto him to start the season, at least.

The league is much more enjoyable when he's an engaged Spur. I hope they resolve their differences and he stays for the super max.

 

[lovegtm]

The Spurs aren’t interested in a full rebuild or they would otherwise be trading Aldridge as well. Saric can be part of the next good Spurs team. Covington can be their short term SF and salary for future deals, if needed. If the Spurs don’t want his deal, then he can be replaced with Bayless/Fultz. So, I see the following options:

Saric/Covington/2019 Sixers/2021 Heat

Or

Saric/Fultz/Bayless/Miami 2021

The Spurs are in no rush so we’ll see if Philly blinks. If I’m the Spurs, I try to get Mills contract moved as part of the deal.

How do we know they won't trade Aldridge as well? My assumption currently is that they're bluffing about not being willing to trade Kawhi to increase the value they get back, and putting Aldridge on the trading block destroys that bluff. I'd have to think that if/when Kawhi is traded, they'd move Aldridge both for value and to do him a solid/maintain free agent goodwill.

 

[BigSoxFan]

How do we know they won't trade Aldridge as well? My assumption currently is that they're bluffing about not being willing to trade Kawhi to increase the value they get back, and putting Aldridge on the trading block destroys that bluff. I'd have to think that if/when Kawhi is traded, they'd move Aldridge both for value and to do him a solid/maintain free agent goodwill.

They won 47 games last year with nothing from Kawhi and would be adding Lonnie Walker and whatever return they get for Kawhi to that. This is a franchise that doesn’t miss the playoffs and it’s obvious they won’t be title contenders but a top 3-4 seed isn’t out of the question. They were only 2 games away from that last year without Kawhi.

I agree that there is definitely some bluffing going on here. At some point, they’ll bite the bullet but they’re likely going to play it slow. Let some teams strike out on big targets in FA and then see if you can extract more value.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Not buying the East only gambit in the slightest. Like Ainge smelling blood and going back to the Nets over and over until he had 4 picks, Buford and Pop will do their best to make it hurt, and this is part of the dance.

 

[snowmanny]

Boston or Philly trading valuable long-term assets for Kawhi doesn't make a lot of sense if you think he's leaving....unless you're Philly and it's a prerequisite to landing LeBron. (Edit: That scenario gets San Antonio a better deal: James tells Philadelphia he will sign there if they get Leonard).

 

[RedOctober3829]

Odds for Kawhi Leonard's 2018-19 team at start of season via @BetDSI

Boston Celtics +175
Philadephia 76ers +285
Orlando Magic +350
San Antonio Spurs +500
Los Angeles Lakers +750
Los Angeles Clippers +3500
Field (Any Other Team) +150

 

[DJnVa]

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

 

[TripleOT]

Assuming Boston isn't trading GH, the only two trades that make sense is a Kyrie for Kawhi trade and a Jaylen plus Morris, Yabu, Semi, Nader, etc trade. Danny isn't trading Brown for a rental, and trading a superstar PG for a fourth star forward isn't a typical move,

Those Boston odds are crazy.

 

[DJnVa]

What about Smart (sign and trade) + Morris + filler + picks? Philly could beat that....

Odds are interesting though.

 

[Bosox1528]

Assuming Boston isn't trading GH, the only two trades that make sense is a Kyrie for Kawhi trade and a Jaylen plus Morris, Yabu, Semi, Nader, etc trade. Danny isn't trading Brown for a rental, and trading a superstar PG for a fourth star forward isn't a typical move,

Those Boston odds are crazy.

If Kawhi is really a true rental and the Spurs refuse to trade him to the west, his value could drop enough to where a S&T Smart, Rozier and Morris plus Clippers pick could do it

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And the Magic? Really? Why would he go there and what would Orlando have to offer that would make sense?

edit: I guess if the price gets cheap enough, Jonathan Isaac could be the best available young talent.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Odds for Kawhi Leonard's 2018-19 team at start of season via @BetDSI

Boston Celtics +175
Philadephia 76ers +285
Orlando Magic +350
San Antonio Spurs +500
Los Angeles Lakers +750
Los Angeles Clippers +3500
Field (Any Other Team) +150

Umm....

I would put $100 on both Philly and SA. There is no other answer here.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Umm....

I would put $100 on both Philly and SA. There is no other answer here.

To be fair, the board also said there's no way the Celtics were in play for Kyrie Irving.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Umm....

I would put $100 on both Philly and SA. There is no other answer here.

Were I a betting man I think I’d be hammering that SA number a bit.

Also kind of feel like the LAL are too undervalued based on the early rhetoric meant to squeeze any possible WC suitors.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Not buying the East only gambit in the slightest. Like Ainge smelling blood and going back to the Nets over and over until he had 4 picks, Buford and Pop will do their best to make it hurt, and this is part of the dance.

Why don't you believe it? We've seen it play out like this with stars forever.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Why don't you believe it? We've seen it play out like this with stars forever.

We’ve also seen stars get their way. I don’t necessarily believe the San Antonio braintrust will limit their options if it means not taking the best deal for their franchise.

 

[Ed Hillel]

What about Smart (sign and trade) + Morris + filler + picks? Philly could beat that....

Odds are interesting though.

Yeah, but Philly probably won’t because it’s a bad long-term move. For a one-year rental, Boston makes the most sense. SA can get some long-term assets like Smart and maybe Memphis and the Celtics can legit contend for a title while still being set up for the future. Philly would still need more to win this year.

 

[djbayko]

Assuming Boston isn't trading GH, the only two trades that make sense is a Kyrie for Kawhi trade and a Jaylen plus Morris, Yabu, Semi, Nader, etc trade. Danny isn't trading Brown for a rental, and trading a superstar PG for a fourth star forward isn't a typical move,

Those Boston odds are crazy.

Yes, they are crazy. BetDSI has crap odds that they set themselves and are slow to move. But their very low limits mean you can't really take advantage of their shit odds to a large degree.

Bookmaker is considered a sharper book and their current odds are more in line with what the market has been like on Kawhi. They have The Celtics at 15% rather than DSI's 36%.

LA Lakers -150
Boston Celtics +550
Phoenix Suns +1400
Milwaukee Bucks +4500
LA Clippers +1300
Philadelphia 76ers +600
Cleveland Cavaliers +2500
San Antonio Spurs +250
Field +1500

 

[Montana Fan]

As Jay King stated on a podcast the other day. A healthy Kawhi is immediately the best player on the team. Could be said of a lot of teams but Boston sure would have a lot of talent to play alongside him.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yes, they are crazy. BetDSI has crap odds that they set themselves and are slow to move. But their very low limits mean you can't really take advantage of their shit odds to a large degree.

Bookmaker is considered a sharper book and their current odds are more in line with what the market has been like on Kawhi. They have The Celtics at 15% rather than DSI's 36%.

LA Lakers -150
Boston Celtics +550
Phoenix Suns +1400
Milwaukee Bucks +4500
LA Clippers +1300
Philadelphia 76ers +600
Cleveland Cavaliers +2500
San Antonio Spurs +250
Field +1500

Philly an even better deal than the other book. I don’t see how LAL gets it done if Spurs are already balking at Ingram/Kuzma package. How else does LA sweeten the pot? Their picks would be borderline useless for the foreseeable future. My guess is Spurs wait until after LeBron decides to get a better sense of the market and value of picks and to see how desperate LA gets.

I could see Philly making an aggressive play with the combinations we’ve discussed. It would be a very risky deal but I feel this team is itching to make a big deal.

 

[Marbleheader]

Yes, they are crazy. BetDSI has crap odds that they set themselves and are slow to move. But their very low limits mean you can't really take advantage of their shit odds to a large degree.

Bookmaker is considered a sharper book and their current odds are more in line with what the market has been like on Kawhi. They have The Celtics at 15% rather than DSI's 36%.

LA Lakers -150
Boston Celtics +550
Phoenix Suns +1400
Milwaukee Bucks +4500
LA Clippers +1300
Philadelphia 76ers +600
Cleveland Cavaliers +2500
San Antonio Spurs +250
Field +1500

What the hell kind of order do they put their odds in? It's like they put them in a blender.

 

[djbayko]

What the hell kind of order do they put their odds in? It's like they put them in a blender.

What happens is they initially list them in order of odds - from biggest favorite to biggest underdog - and then they don't re-shuffle them as the odds change.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

We’ve also seen stars get their way. I don’t necessarily believe the San Antonio braintrust will limit their options if it means not taking the best deal for their franchise.

I'm assuming LeBron is a lock to be a Laker next year. Assuming this is the case how would it ever be in the best interest of the Spurs franchise to facilitate a LeBron/Kawhi squad for the next 5 years complete with cap space to bring in a 3rd star? There is more to doing what is best for the organization than what's on a spreadsheet,....there are other factors in play.

 

[the moops]

I don’t see how LAL gets it done if Spurs are already balking at Ingram/Kuzma package. How else does LA sweeten the pot?

How?
By including Ball instead of Deng. Or offering up a first round pick or two. Or taking back some bad salary. Or any combination those.

 

[BigSoxFan]

How?
By including Ball instead of Deng. Or offering up a first round pick or two. Or taking back some bad salary. Or any combination those.

The trade with Ball instead of Deng doesn’t work per the trade machine and I’m sure the Lakers have already offered a couple of firsts as part of their original offer, which wouldn’t be that valuable with LeBron and a guy like George in the fold.

The Spurs are reported to not want Ball and they themselves would likely have to take on bad salary like Deng to make the deal work without him.

Something like Kawhi/Gasol for Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/Deng/1sts works but it would require the Spurs being able to flip Ball for something more useful, which I’m guessing they may be able to do but it would make things tougher to execute.

 

[bsj]

ESPN trade machine is shit for factoring in elements like S&Ts so cant figure this out, but would Smart, Rozier, Morris and a pick work at least from a math perspective?

 

[BigSoxFan]

ESPN trade machine is shit for factoring in elements like S&Ts so cant figure this out, but would Smart, Rozier, Morris and a pick work at least from a math perspective?

You would need more salary but I think Yabu/Nader might be able to get it done. Obviously, that's a package that SA laughs at unless the Sac or Mem pick is involved, neither of which figures to be made available by Danny for a rental.

 

[JCizzle]

I still think Covington+Saric with the upside of Fultz is the best, and most likely, deal that makes sense for both parties. Toss in a 2020 first or one of this year's picks for good measure.

The Celtics have great assets, but I'm not sure any fit in this case. They're either not enough (Rozier/Smart/our own picks), or too valuable for a rental (Jaylen/SAC/MEM).

 

[BigSoxFan]

I still think Covington+Saric with the upside of Fultz is the best, and most likely, deal that makes sense for both parties. Toss in a 2020 first or one of this year's picks for good measure.

The Celtics have great assets, but I'm not sure any fit in this case. They're either not enough (Rozier/Smart/our own picks), or too valuable for a rental (Jaylen/SAC/MEM).

Agreed. I think the only way a Celtics/Spurs trade would work is if a 3rd team gets involved. Right now, the two teams don't match up well based on what we presume Danny would be willing to offer and what the Spurs need. They have some good youth in the backcourt in Murray and Walker. They really need some young frontcourt help because they don't have anything there.

 

[bsj]

You would need more salary but I think Yabu/Nader might be able to get it done. Obviously, that's a package that SA laughs at unless the Sac or Mem pick is involved, neither of which figures to be made available by Danny for a rental.

I hear you...its sort of a double edged sword as I agree Kawhi is worth more, but a rental isnt...

 

[the moops]

I hear you...its sort of a double edged sword as I agree Kawhi is worth more, but a rental isnt...

You probably would not need more salary. In tis theoretical, Smart only needs to be signed for ~ 8 million per year to make the trade work with him + Rozier + Morris.

 

[Big John]

Smart, Rozier and Morris for a one-year rental? I don't think so.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Why is Smart being included in hypothetical trades to SA when he is a RFA who figures to have multiple offers at the floor of an MLE? He has no incentive to commit the prime years of his career as a favor to Danny.

 

[lovegtm]

Why is Smart being included in hypothetical trades to SA when he is a RFA who figures to have multiple offers at the floor of an MLE? He has no incentive to commit the prime years of his career as a favor to Danny.

Isn't there a window after matching him as an RFA during which he can't be traded?

 

[lovegtm]

I still think Covington+Saric with the upside of Fultz is the best, and most likely, deal that makes sense for both parties. Toss in a 2020 first or one of this year's picks for good measure.

The Celtics have great assets, but I'm not sure any fit in this case. They're either not enough (Rozier/Smart/our own picks), or too valuable for a rental (Jaylen/SAC/MEM).

I wonder if Philly feels, at least a little, like the 2021 MIA pick is house money, and thus might be more willing to part with it for a rental.

Wouldn't be super logical, but I imagine that enters their thinking at the margin.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Smart, Rozier and Morris for a one-year rental? I don't think so.

All those guys are rentals with the outside chance of Smart staying being the only possible exception. I would absolutely part with all 3 for Kawhi. The issues is the picks that we would need to add to get SA to bite.

 

[DJnVa]

What if SA is one of the teams interested in him? I don't think anyone is assuming Smart would take a hometown deal to get dealt, but the culture of the Spurs may appeal to him *if that's a route the Celtics want to explore*.

 

[RG33]

Again, rental or not, I don’t see how many are so easily balking at Smart/Rozier/Morris/Yabu + pick for Kawhi freaking Leonard. He makes the Celtics the favorite. . . . In the NBA . I’ll take my chances with him playing in Boston, for Brad Stevens, on a championship caliber team with regards to re-signing. A Kyrie-Kawhi-Gordon-Tatum-Horford team with Jaylan as the 6th man would be incredible to watch. And, yes, you have to ensure he is healthy first. I’d happily include either the Sac or the Memphis pick.

 

[the moops]

Not that it is likely to happen, but if Marcus Smart is going to SAS in a sign and trade, you would not need to include anyone but Morris to make the money work. Because as others have said, he is going to get an offer over the MLE. Morris is making 5 million. So a resigned Smart at 10.5 million + gets you there.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Not that it is likely to happen, but if Marcus Smart is going to SAS in a sign and trade, you would not need to include anyone but Morris to make the money work. Because as others have said, he is going to get an offer over the MLE. Morris is making 5 million. So a resigned Smart at 10.5 million + gets you there.

Wouldn't Smart's salary be capped with respect to matching salaries? Not a capologist but thought I saw that somewhere, perhaps on this board.

 

[cheech13]

Not that it is likely to happen, but if Marcus Smart is going to SAS in a sign and trade, you would not need to include anyone but Morris to make the money work. Because as others have said, he is going to get an offer over the MLE. Morris is making 5 million. So a resigned Smart at 10.5 million + gets you there.

Don't forget base year compensation rules when using Smart in a sign-and-trade. You can only use 50% of the outgoing salary for matching purposes since he'll be getting raise more than 20% above his old salary and the Celtics are above the cap.

 

[the moops]

stupid nba salary cap and its weird ass rules

 

[Cesar Crespo]

All those guys are rentals with the outside chance of Smart staying being the only possible exception. I would absolutely part with all 3 for Kawhi. The issues is the picks that we would need to add to get SA to bite.

Smart wouldn't be a rental. He'd be agreeing to a long term contract before being traded to SA.

 

[cheech13]

Why would the Spurs want to pay $10MM+ for Smart when they already have Murray, Walker, Mills and presumably Parker and Ginobli? Wouldn't they be much more interested in a wing? Nothing against Smart, I just don't see what he does for them going forward. He's not a building block or a star replacement.

I still think the cost is Jaylen or Kyrie. If you don't want to do that, I understand the logic. Just don't think there is any trade permutation that doesn't start with one of those two.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Smart wouldn't be a rental. He'd be agreeing to a long term contract before being traded to SA.

We're talking about the perspective for the Celtics. BigJohn didn't want to trade Smart/Morris/Rozier for a rental so I was pointing out that Rozier and Morris are rentals as well and only Smart has the potential of sticking around with the Celtics past next season.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Why would the Spurs want to pay $10MM+ for Smart when they already have Murray, Walker, Mills and presumably Parker and Ginobli? Wouldn't they be much more interested in a wing? Nothing against Smart, I just don't see what he does for them going forward. He's not a building block or a star replacement.

I still think the cost is Jaylen or Kyrie. If you don't want to do that, I understand the logic. Just don't think there is any trade permutation that doesn't start with one of those two.

If Ainge offered up filler and Sac/Mem picks, the Spurs would send Kawhi to Boston in a heartbeat. Ainge obviously wouldn't do that nor would he trade Kyrie/Jaylen for a rental.

As for roster construction, both Parker and Ginobili are near the end and both could be off the team next year. Mills is a backup PG who SA overpaid and whose final 3 years they'd love to get rid of. I agree that they'd much rather get a young wing or big since they really have nothing in that department. A deal centered around Brandon Ingram is probably the best they can do but right now they aren't interested in dealing with LA. We'll see if that changes.