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Jurassic World 3: Where the Dinosaurs have Quad Injuries and Hate Their Shoe Deals

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Sox Puppet, Apr 17, 2018.

  1. Sox Puppet

    Sox Puppet Member SoSH Member

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    Rumors have been swirling all year around the Kawhi Leonard situation in SA, and it only looks like they're getting worse. It's starting to seem like a fait accompli that he'll be out of there next year, and I'm sure every team in the league would jump at a chance to acquire him (or would they? SA has often been seen as a model organization, and Kawhi's passive-aggressive conflicts with management during his recovery from injury isn't a good look).

    That leads me to wonder -- with Danny Ainge's war chest of assets, could we land him in a trade? If so, what would it cost? And should we even try? A starting 5 of Kawhi/Hayward/Horford/Brown/Irving with Tatum, Smart, Rozier, etc. coming off the bench would be pretty devastating. Of course, some of those players might have to be moved for salary cap/trade/roster balance concerns.
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,245
    FWIW, Dwyane Wade thinks he ends up in Boston.

    And yes, at the very least, 1 of Brown or Tatum would no longer be here.
     
  3. NoXInNixon

    NoXInNixon Member SoSH Member

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    If the Spurs are willing to let him go, I don't want him.
     
  4. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    The rotation you mention would not include 2-3 of those players if you trade for Leonard. A possible Leonard trade would cost Tatum/Morris/Rozier/Yabu because of matching salaries and also either the Kings or Grizz 2019 pick. Is gutting the team worth getting Kahwi Leonard? Not in my mind. Tatum and Brown are younger and cheaper and not worth moving for Leonard. Would I like Leonard on the Celtics? Absolutely, but not at the expense of Tatum and to a lesser extent Brown. I'd rather hold the fort with this roster and see how good it can be when healthy. They stand to add another high pick or two in the 2019 draft as well so the young talent won't stop coming in.
     
  5. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    9,998
    There's a small chance Brown or Tatum is Leonard in 2-3 years, and it removes the Davis play later.

    If it's for Morris, Rozier, salary matches and a couple of premium picks then yes, but that is probably doubtful.
     
  6. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Yes, we got our Kawhi thread! My thoughts are as follows:

    Pros
    26 years-old and top 5 player when healthy
    Considerable playoff experience, including Finals MVP
    Can basically guard all 5 positions on the court
    Good 3 point shooter
    Very good FT shooter
    Unselfish on court
    Basically is the perfect wing for a Stevens team
    Prime aligns with current Horford/Kyrie/Hayward window
    You keep a potential impact guy from landing with Philly, a likely rival for the next 5+ years

    Cons
    Chronic quad injury - is he going to miss 20+ games every year?
    Major falling out with quality coach/organization - what the shit happened this year?!
    Due max deal soon
    Will likely cost a lot in terms of young players and picks - not many bullets left in chamber if you pull trigger on this

    The cost for Kawhi is going to be substantial. The Spurs are almost certainly going to ask for Tatum. Ainge will likely say no. That leaves Jaylen Brown, a guy we've seen blossom in front of our very eyes and whose ceiling appears to be an all-star calibre player. However, Jaylen alone won't be enough for salary purposes or compensation. For additional compensation, you're likely looking at the Sacramento pick and possibly even the Memphis pick as well. If you're getting 2014-2017 Kawhi, you pay that price without ever looking back. If you're getting injured/headcase Kawhi, you've got a lot of risk.

    I think Ainge will absolutely poke around here. We all know that Davis is his preferred target but Davis ain't happening. The real question here is does Ainge see what he has in the starting 5 he only got to see for 5 minutes or does he capitalize on the rare availability of a true impact guy, similar to Kyrie, and pay the necessary price? The upside of a Horford/Tatum/Leonard/Hayward/Kyrie starting 5 is incredible. You're talking 5 guys who can create offense and all of whom can shoot 3's at a high percentage. The downside is you've got an oft-injured malcontent on a big contract. In 7 NBA seasons, Kawhi has played 70+ games just twice. That is what gives me the greatest concern.
     
  7. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    8,217
    I would not trade Tatum for Kawhi straight up.

    Older, more expensive, character issues, and coming off injury? I would rather roll the dice with Tatum, who is on a rookie deal, ridiculously talented, still growing, and has zero questions about his attitude.

    If you could build a package around Brown and picks? Maybe. But when you start talking about a package like that, it would be preferable if possible to get someone who doesn't duplicate what Hayward and Tatum do.
     
  8. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    1,955
    That chance is so damn tiny though
     
  9. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    The uncertainty on Kawhi is just so high right now. The difference between what he's worth in the 80th percentile outcome vs 20th percentile outcome is huge. The former (where he's the player he's been, re-signs and is a legit all-nba) is probably worth Brown, Tatum, and the Sac pick. The latter (where he's cronically injured, disgruntled, and leaves after a year), might not be worth any of those. It's so hard to settle on what a reasonable price point is when you have to factor in that much variance.
     
  10. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    1,955
    Kyrie and Kawhi make the same amount of money :)

    If you believe in Rozier...
     
  11. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    Is it? How many of the league's best wings had a rookie year as productive and impressive as Tatum (at age 19/20!), let alone playing for a 55-win team?

    His upside has no limit right now. The guy could be an MVP down the road. I'm not trading him for anything.
     
  12. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I have a better chance of getting traded for Kawhi than Kyrie does.
     
  13. Wilco's Last Fan

    Wilco's Last Fan Member SoSH Member

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    Brown, Morris, Rozier, and salary filler (two of Yabu/Nader/Semi) works salary-wise. You could also use a S&T'd Smart in place of some of that salary (i.e. if you prefer Rozier) if Smart doesn't sign an offer sheet. They'd probably at least want the SAC pick, if not MEM too.

    That's a lot to give up. I'd want some reassurance that (1) his quad is OK and (2) he'd be willing to re-sign.

    A love the versatility of a Kyrie-Hayward-Leonard-Tatum-Horford lineup. Just a nasty team with good length, secondary ballhandlers, and switchable defenders. That's a championship caliber team with a minimum 3-5 year window, assuming reasonable health.
     
  14. americantrotter

    americantrotter Member SoSH Member

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    I like Kawhi a lot.

    But, I am in irrational love with Brown. No deal for me. Too many unknowns, salary and asset repercussions as noted above, and I want to see Brown and Tatum terrorize together as Celtics.
     
  15. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    I'd be willing to bet his trade value is far lower than people may expect. There is massive uncertainty that needs to be priced in, with regards to either an injury, or a lack of commitment. Also, the guy hasn't played in a year, outside of a handful of games.

    Less broadly, I wonder how he'd fit on a team that relies on ball movement and spacing where he might be the 3rd or 4th option at best.

    I can't see any way he is on the Spurs, so there is definitely a chance he comes here, but it'll be fascinating to see what he ultimately gets moved for. Rozier, SAC, MEM picks, plus salary is about as high as I would go, but I could be easily convinced he's worth more if the uncertainty on him and fit improved.
     
  16. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    The problem with the Celtics is that the "plus salary" will have to include some of Tatum/Brown/Morris. Kyrie/Hayward/Horford aren't getting moved, so that's what you're left with.
     
  17. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    I don't feel comfortable having an opinion one way or the other. There is just so little we know about the current situation; it's possible that Ainge/Brad talk a lot to Kawhi and know way more about the issues he has had in SA, and I would trust their judgement if they think he can be the same player he was up until this season. Then you start talking about trading Brown/Tatum and picks.

    The downside is enormous if Kawhi turns into Andrew Bynum or Larry Sanders. The Celtics presumably already have three all-stars in Kyrie/Al/Hayward, and I'd bet the farm Tatum is an all-star within the next five seasons and Brown has a chance to be one as well. The Celtics are in an amazing situation right now; I don't know if you want to roll the dice right now.
     
  18. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Separate question....if Ainge wants to go for him, is there a team that could outbid us?
     
  19. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Sixers comes to mind. They have cap space, picks, and young players to trade.
     
  20. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    This is the correct question.

    If we offer JB and the SAC pick, I’m not sure who tops that. It won’t be Philly unless they’re willing to deal Simmons or Embiid, which I think would be crazy.
     
  21. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Not many but a few could.

    Philly could offer some combination of Fultz/Saric/Covington/2018 Lakers. Phoenix could offer some combination of their 2018 pick/Jackson/Bender/Chriss. LA could offer some combination of Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/future picks. Even Golden State could get into the action with Klay Thompson (FA next summer though)/Bell.

    Ainge has the ability to top any offer if he offers up Tatum and Sacramento but I highly doubt he goes that high.
     
  22. Mooch

    Mooch Member SoSH Member

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    Count me out if it involves Brown or Tatum. Jaylen's 3pt percentage this season was better than any Kawhi season except one. We all know that Tatum has future superstar potential on his own. Hard pass unless you can steal him away from the Spurs for loose parts.
     
  23. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    24,073
    I basically agree with you.

    Besides the ones you listed, another big unknown is how much luxury tax ownership is willing to pay to hold together a contending team. If Jaylen is gone in two years for budget reasons, Danny’s appetite for risk will be much greater than if there’s a prospect of having Kyrie, Tatum, Brown, and an aging Horford as the core of a contending team 4 years from now. (Let’s wait for Hayward to come back 100% before we start penciling him in for another max deal in a couple years, but he’s part of the puzzle too, as is whoever we take with the SAC pick if we keep it.)
     
  24. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    33,662
    I struggle with this particular situation. If you're trading youth for certainty, well...there should be more certainty. A lot more, when you are probably the odds-on favorite at this moment to come out of the East next season anyways.
     
  25. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Wouldn't we have to give up one of the big 3 to make the salaries work? I might do that, but I wouldn't do that AND one of Tatum/Brown/good pick.
     
  26. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    15,799
    Agree that from what we know, the risk is too high particularly since our championship window is probably limited due to salary cap constraints.

    As I mentioned in the other thread, PHO, however, should jump all over it.
     
  27. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    5,071
    Kawhi + Paul George + LeBron to the Lakers makes some sense, if the MFL can clear out everyone (which I think they've basically done, except for Deng?) Would the Spurs would go for a package of Ingram and Ball?
     
  28. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    Love Kawhi's game. I'd be too chicken to make a move for him but Danny has some balls.
    Imagine if he GFIN next year for a core of Kyrie, Kawhi, Hayward and Anthony Davis. Yo.
     
  29. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    9,998
    I'd imagine SA wouldn't trade him within the Western Conference unless the offers are very far apart.
     
  30. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    24,073
    Guess that answers my question — Ingram + Ball >>> Jaylen + SAC 2019.

    But I’m not sure that makes the Lakers a better team. You do have to have an 8-9 man rotation, and swapping in a league minimum signee for Ingram would mostly offset the upgrade from Ball to Kawhi, even disregarding the huge amount of potential they’d be trading away.

    If ownership is willing to descend into cap hell, they’d be better off trading Ball to Washington for John Wall (can’t imagine the Zards would say no) and hanging on to Ingram.
     
  31. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    8,702
    That's like the most injury prone lineup in history ha
     
  32. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    5,071
    You don't think LeBron + Kawhi + George + one MLE guy + a bunch of vet min ring-chasers and well-chosen D-leaguers is better than what they have now?
     
  33. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    No.....Philly isn't trading Embiid or Simmons.

    We are in the drivers seat which is why I doubt it would cost us Tatum, Brown/Rozier AND the pick. The Spurs lack leverage and everyone will be looking to exploit that this summer so it could drag on well past draft day.

    Is Kawhi even injured though? He was cleared in February and reportedly looked great in workouts before his people shut him down. Obv there are different motivations from Kyrie but it seems pretty clear Kawhi is forcing himself out of San Antonio in a similar manner.
     
    #33 HomeRunBaker, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  34. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    7,104
    If we’re discussing Brown I would agree. But Tatum? The chance is more than “so damn tiny”. Especially when you factor in injury, age, and pending free agent status.

    Statistically Tatum’s age 19/20 season compares favorably to Kawhi’s rookie (age 20) season. Leonard certainly had an athletic advantage entering the NBA, but Tatum is a gym rat, he’s going to fill out and when he does, he’s going to be an MVP candidate.

    In short there’s no way I trade, at a minimum, the next six years of Jayson Tatum for possibly a single season of post-injury Kawhi Leonard. If we’re talking an Anthony Davis gamble? I’d make that one. But Leonard? As much as I love him, no.
     
  35. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    5,633
    I do believe...I do believe...Rozier/Smart/Larkin - PGs

    Kyrie + MaMo for Kawhi+ ...If the Spurs hang up, so be it.

    Otherwise, Tatum and Brown are untouchable unless the Brow is available
     
  36. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    24,073
    Better than what they have now, yes.

    Not better than LBJ/PG/Ball/Ingram, plus the useful role player(s) they would have to jettison to make a Kawhi deal work.
     
  37. millionthcustomer

    millionthcustomer Member SoSH Member

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    I am in the “let’s see what we have in this playoffs right here” camp. If this team goes seven in the next round and wins, then takes the ECF to a game 6? I’d ask myself if adding a healthy Kyrie and Hayward gets me those last six wins.

    I’d say the answer is yes, and I give this team another year to gel. Then, I go back to the well in next year’s draft to add yet another young stud.
     
  38. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    It would never happen but the move that makes the most sense to me is Hayward/Sac 2019 for Kawhi, which allows the Celtics to keep J&J. Assuming no issues in his comeback, Spurs would be getting an all-star or near all-star calibre player who’d fit in perfectly and a top asset for the future. And Celtics would get to keep both young wings and would be trading Hayward’s big deal for Kawhi’s while upgrading its overall athleticism and defensive presence.

    Of course, I don’t think that even Danny would have the balls to do this given Hayward’s relationship with Stevens and all that he’s gone through.
     
  39. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Good ol' reactive devaluation
     
  40. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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  41. CPT Neuron

    CPT Neuron Got Pitching? SoSH Member

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    I trade Horford + pick(s) + non- JT/JB for Kawhi in a split second - not that the Spurs would ever go for that....this smells like a quiet shoot your way out of town thing as opposed to an "attitude" or character thing.
     
  42. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Celtics can’t afford to trade Horford. Who is your C? You’d have 4 wings and Kyrie.
     
  43. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,042
    Some people want Horford gone at any cost, even if it means the Cs dont have a position covered. Not saying CPT is one though I dont understand the trade from either sides perspective.

    As a side note ,it mystifies me how many people dislike Horford because of what he isn't (e.g. elite scorer) instead of appreciating what he is, which is one of the most complete players in the league.
     
  44. CPT Neuron

    CPT Neuron Got Pitching? SoSH Member

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    2,315
    Admittedly irrational thought process on my part - I just have a hard time wrapping my head around losing either JT or JB - but I suppose that Kwahi is the "finished product" that you hope JT becomes, perhaps JT as well, though I think JT has the potential to become more of a scoring threat and less potential for elite defense.

    And I have less than zero axe to grind with regards to Horford - he's a total package player, and a very good one at that.
     
  45. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Hmm, agree to disagree, I guess. Barring a huge leap by Ingram or Ball, I don't think the Lakers with just 34 y.o. LeBron + George + young'uns are that close to a healthy Warriors team. Add a healthy Kawhi and I think they pose a more existential threat.

    On the thread topic ... man, the Celtics aren't even my favorite team and I already feel like I'm too emotionally attached to Jaylen and Jayson on the Celtics to want to see either of them go. (Full disclosure: I am a Cal guy, which may affect my fondness for Brown). And as BSF notes, Horford-for-Kawhi seems great in a vacuum, but not so much a team that already has three great wings and no other bigs (and not even any big/bulky wings like LeBron, Draymond or Durant who can naturally slide over to PF full-time).

    Factor in the health question marks and I think I'd pass if I were you guys. You're gonna need size going forward to hang with Embiid/Simmons Sixers, especially with Horford getting up there in age, so I'd save my assets for a deal involving an elite big.
     
  46. Bernie Carbohydrate

    Bernie Carbohydrate writes the Semi-Fin Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    2,481
    Amen, brother. Tatum and Brown are durable, cheap, hungry, and under team control until 2021. Leonard is fragile, expensive, appears to be in the middle of an epic sulk, and is a free agent in 2019.

    The most troubling aspect of the Leonard situation isn't that he's not playing. After IT I don't fault a guy for shutting it down rather than gutting it out for a team that isn't anywhere near championship caliber. What scares me off is that Leonard isn't travelling with the team or attending games. He's rehabbing in in New York, and reports are that he hasn't had contact with the Spurs in weeks.
     
    #46 Bernie Carbohydrate, Apr 18, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2018
  47. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    24,073
    It’s more complicated than that. Horford is a terrific player, and the most indispensable one on the current team (we wouldn’t be up 2-0 on Milwaukee if Al was out instead of Kyrie), but it’s far from clear that he’s a long-term piece for us. Al has an opt-out after next season, and choosing to resign him for another 4-5 years at the expense of keeping Brown or Tatum when they hit free agency is hardly a no-brainer.

    If you’re going to trade for a star, you’re pulling the window forward, so it might make more sense to keep Al and say goodbye to Jaylen, but that’s still not an easy decision.
     
  48. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Horford will be a difficult decision if (when?) he opts our after next year.

    Ideally, the Celtics would be able to get him below the max, but if he has another strong year next year he’ll be in a position of being able to get max money somewhere.
     
  49. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    6,715
    Or you take Wyc and Pagliuca at their word that they will spend till it hurts and then some, including if that means luxury tax, in order to bring home #18+. And we just buy the league, Paris Saint-Germain style.

    Not my money, banners fly forever, etc.
     
  50. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    It is way too early to be making decisions based on Tatum's contract in 2022 or even Jaylen's in 2021. Having said that, Wyc isn't going to be able to have 5 max deals on the books. By the time Tatum (and Jaylen) come due, Horford will be near the end of his rope anyway.
     

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