Joey Votto: Hall of Famer?

[simplicio]

Let's not kid ourselves, Ichiro is a first ballot LOCK.

I'd say if Votto isn't in first ballot, he gets it on year 2. Barry Larkin was the last HOF player from the Reds and he retired 19 years ago. You really think the writers are going to set up a franchise to go 45+ years without a HOF induction because Votto is too "borderline"?

 

[Seels]

I think Lee Smith was even worse than Baines.....

No way. Even as a reliever he had almost as much war and stronger MVP finishes. I don't think either should be in but Smith is a much much better candidate.

I think MVP shares is underrated as a HoF statistic - and inexplicably Smith is 631st to 661st for Baines. 117th in CYA shares. Smith is a bad pick - Baines is the worst pick ever by a few miles.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Let's not kid ourselves, Ichiro is a first ballot LOCK.

Agree. I wasn't trying to argue otherwise. I just think it's instructive on what's valued. Ichiro will get in in the first or second ballot with close to the lowest OPS+ of any hall of famer. I think tied with Lou Brock, who is a pretty good comp and was, by WAR at least, a much less valuable player.

I think with a player like Ichiro, it gets easy for voters to make stuff up like: "and those stats don't even take into account how often he probably kept runners at second base that would have made it to third." Whereas guys like Votto, whose value is less visible in the categories that Dave O'Brien loves, don't get the benefit of that kind of eye test discussion.

 

[Leskanic's Thread]

Just for reference, Here is the list of HOF players by WAR. Those highlighted yellow are currently in. Everyone else is their current WAR numbers. Votto is currently sitting on the list at 146.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_Wins_Above_Replacement_leaders

A tangent, but: when do real deep baseball nerds start agitating online for Jim McCormick to be enshrined? I guess it's hard for people to get really excited for someone who last played in 1887...but he seems a big outlier in the middle of the swatch of no-doubt HOF (and would-be-no-doubt-except-for-their-transgressions) players.

Or is there a skeleton-filled closet in McCormick's story I don't know about because I just heard about him for the first time?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Or is there a skeleton-filled closet in McCormick's story I don't know about because I just heard about him for the first time?

It's pretty simple I think. (Sorry fletch) Naughty words alert.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqgkZDbe4Xk

 

[GrandSlamPozo]

It didn't even occur to me that this would even be up for debate. He was consistently among the game's best pure hitters for over a decade.

 

[Rice4HOF]

I think if he’s not in on the the first ballot, he makes it in year 2. Honestly surprised that there’s this much uncertainty about it. Voters are much smarter than they were even 10 to 20 years ago. OBP matters.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

No way. Even as a reliever he had almost as much war and stronger MVP finishes. I don't think either should be in but Smith is a much much better candidate.

I think MVP shares is underrated as a HoF statistic - and inexplicably Smith is 631st to 661st for Baines. 117th in CYA shares. Smith is a bad pick - Baines is the worst pick ever by a few miles.

There are definitely some guys in the Hall who don’t have a great case to be there. Bill Mazeroski and Phil Rizzuto are pretty bad. Rube Marquard? Rabbit Marranville? Lloyd Waner? Jesse Haines, Rick Ferrell, George Kelly.

 

[Ale Xander]

If Mcgriff and Stargell are in, so should Votto be.

His career WAR is about 15% higher than Papi too (although it’s night and day when looking at playoffs/rings there obviously)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A tangent, but: when do real deep baseball nerds start agitating online for Jim McCormick to be enshrined? I guess it's hard for people to get really excited for someone who last played in 1887...but he seems a big outlier in the middle of the swatch of no-doubt HOF (and would-be-no-doubt-except-for-their-transgressions) players.

Or is there a skeleton-filled closet in McCormick's story I don't know about because I just heard about him for the first time?

That 20-40 season in ‘79 may have hurt him, although he did bounce back with 45 wins the next year.

 

[GrandSlamPozo]

Do the people who don't feel Votto is worthy think that Bryce Harper is on track for the Hall? He's the closest comparison I can think of to Votto in terms of his batting skill set, his struggles to remain healthy and his inconsistent year-to-year performance in certain respects (though with Votto it's mainly his home run rate that varied wildly year to year, whereas Harper might go from batting .330 one year to .240 the next). In fact Harper's overall career stats through his first 12 years look fairly comparable (but slightly weaker overall) to Votto's stats in his first 12 full seasons.

Of course Harper's main advantage is that he got off to a much earlier start than Votto did, and at his age it wouldn't be surprising if he puts up one or more additional MVP-caliber campaigns before he's finished. But I still feel Harper would be very likely to make the Hall even if he fizzles out from here.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

If Mcgriff and Stargell are in, so should Votto be.

His career WAR is about 15% higher than Papi too (although it’s night and day when looking at playoffs/rings there obviously)

I don’t think Stargell is a favorable comp for Votto. When Stargell retired he was top 20 all time in homers and RBIs. That plus the rings/MVP/“Pops” persona made him a no-brainer I think.

McGriff I agree.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Do the people who don't feel Votto is worthy think that Bryce Harper is on track for the Hall? He's the closest comparison I can think of to Votto in terms of his batting skill set, his struggles to remain healthy and his inconsistent year-to-year performance in certain respects (though with Votto it's mainly his home run rate that varied wildly year to year, whereas Harper might go from batting .330 one year to .240 the next). In fact Harper's overall career stats through his first 12 years look fairly comparable (but slightly weaker overall) to Votto's stats in his first 12 full seasons.

Of course Harper's main advantage is that he got off to a much earlier start than Votto did, and at his age it wouldn't be surprising if he puts up one or more additional MVP-caliber campaigns before he's finished. But I still feel Harper would be very likely to make the Hall even if he fizzles out from here.

If Bryce Harper retired after this season, I suspect he would make the HOF. How many players have two MVP trophies and a ROY and aren’t in the HOF?

 

[Fishercat]

I think Votto is actually going to help his case post-retirement. It's a bit hard to back it up but I feel like with guys that aren't complete slam dunks or easy one-and-dones that being prevalent in immediate post baseball activities and being media friendly can be really useful. He was mic'd up in a game early in 2022 and had some real charming quips and a real natural feel and respect for the game without being too staid about it

Joey Votto gives incredible mic’d up interview during Reds’ season opener - Sports Illustrated

Then you can take this Chris Russo interview and I think it speaks for itself - he does a great job of being reflective on the game and being fun while not overstepping that line that pisses off voters

Joey Votto trolls Chris Russo on MLB Network

I think there will be a groundswell of support for him both for his very impressive on field credentials but also for his personality and approach to the game on the whole that will likely push those borderline voters over the edge. He also has the "single team" history which I feel like tends to bolster a player's reputation in these scenarios.

 

[allmanbro]

I think there will be a groundswell of support for him both for his very impressive on field credentials but also for his personality and approach to the game on the whole that will likely push those borderline voters over the edge. He also has the "single team" history which I feel like tends to bolster a player's reputation in these scenarios.

This all seems right, but I just wanted to add that I think this all fits together in a really clear, easily digestible, and I think accurate, narrative. And that narrative can only help. Votto is a nice, engaging guy who seemed to have a lot of fun playing, worked hard, and was happy to be the face of an often underachieving midwestern team for his whole career (if he retires). Ernie Banks might actually be a pretty good comp as a figure in baseball and ambassador for the game, if not exactly as a player (surprisingly, Banks is only 5 fWAR ahead of Votto).

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Never had a sacrifice bunt either. Which I regard as borderline black ink.

Careful, if more sportswriters find out about this, they will dock him for it. "Too selfish to EVER give himself up to help his team win, no wonder he never won anything!"