Jacksonity......or the Knick thread

Riles335

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Terrible posts by you, Riles. Careful of getting in people's faces when you're a lurker, the reaper has been known to occasionally visit this forum too.
Don't really understand this considering I was on the receiving end of a personal attack. I responded by saying that it was ignorant. That isn't getting in the face of anyone. I am here to talk basketball.

More of an answer than you deserve, but for the sake of the thread:



From Hollinger’s Baron Davis player card:
“Davis had the most valuable assists in the league last season, and it wasn’t even close. Among players with at least 300 assists, Davis’ average assist was worth .841 points, well ahead of the league average of .667. And lest you think that was all from having Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan slamming down dunks, consider that Davis’ assist value didn’t change at all after the trade to Cleveland. More than half of Davis’ assists were layups or dunks, according to Hoopdata.com, compared to the league average of 38 percent; conversely, only 26.3 percent of his dimes were “bad” assists that led to 2-pointers away from the basket.”

This is exactly what NY needs right now, someone to create spacing on the offensive end. No one is expecting Davis to be the 2007 version, but he is going to be a major step up from what they've been playing with. I love Shumpert (I am wearing a SHUMP SHUMP t-shirt as I type), but he is much more of a SG than a PG.
Aside from your attack,

Baron Davis, clearly already digressing at this point in his career, is going to have to fight through a number of different factors. The two biggest factors include injury and chemistry. Coming back from a major injury like a herniated disc is more than worrisome. Chemistry will also be another strong factor as he will be learning on the fly. In a season with hardly any practice, Davis is going to be playing through game flow and stamina troubles. This might be something the Knicks can't afford with a condensed schedule. By the time Davis gets back, will they have enough time to right the ship and gain enough chemistry to major contenders this year? There is a lot to worry about here.

I have never argued that Shumpert is a better point guard, and like Grin said...Davis is a much more competent pick and role point guard...but we can lose focus of Davis and the issues facing him due to injury. Considering all aspects of these two players, I think there is a real possibility that Shumpert is a much more complete player at this point in their careers. Considering Shumpert's defense, rebounding, athleticism, and many of the things going against Davis, I really don't think that Davis is here to save the Knicks.
 

Riles335

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So you think it's "very unlikely" that Davis will have a PER higher than 2.2 and that Shumpert is the better PG? I'm excited to revisit this discussion in April.

And, like I said, the Knicks (who I do not play for, fyi) are not a great team, and I have zero expectation of them getting by Chicago or Miami. But, with a true point guard, I expect their offense to improve and for them to beat the sort of teams they've been losing to recently. Further, the Knicks are running their offense through Carmelo out of necessity. D'Antoni's system, as everybody knows, is reliant on the point guard and very pick and roll heavy, which the Knicks have been terrible at running this year due to their lack of a true point guard. Stoudemire, for instance, has finished just 3.2 percent of the pick and roll's the Knicks have run this year. With Felton running the point last year, that number was just under 15%. Carmelo finishes well in pick and roll situations with the ball in his hands (1.2 PPP in pick and roll situations) but is very poor at creating for the roll man, and as a result, defenses dont have to collapse on the roll man and the other shooters (Amare in particular) don't get open looks off of kick outs. Baron Davis will distribute to the roll man more effectively than Carmelo/Shumpert/Douglas have thus far, and doing so will create better looks for everybody.

That said, I can't speak to the severity of herniated discs or the recovery prognosis. But everything I've read is that after surgery, given proper recovery time and physical therapy, there's no reason one can't come back from the surgery.

Time will tell, I guess.
Good post. I do agree that time will tell and this will be great to look back on in a few months.

Edit - I do want to add though, do you think that Amare's troubles finishing off of the pick and role are due because of poor point guard play or possibly because of the fact that Chandler clogs the lane with his inability to stretch the floor with any sort of mid range game which results in more double team situations against Amare? I think that is some good food for thought.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe I should be, but I'm really not worried about Baron coming back from his back problems, I honestly think there's a non-zero chance that he was never especially hurt at all (I know Cleveland's doctors examined him, but you can feign back pain if you want, I would think), and that the main reason he's been sitting out is to not piss off Stern at how he basically forced his way to the team that he wanted to go to (Billups tried this too by warning teams not to pick him up on waivers, but it didn't work). He looks pretty skinny on NY's bench, and on paper anyway, he is exactly what NY needs right now. Yes, there's a bit of wishful thinking in there on my part, we'll see how much soon enough. In the meantime, I just keep reading that Hollinger analysis and drooling.

And of course they're still a few good role players (and maybe a new coach) away from being able to genuinely challenge Miami/Chicago, but if Baron/Shumpert/Melo/Amare/Chandler are all healthy by playoff time (assuming of course they make the playoffs in the weak East), that is the first time they will have had a real five man unit in at least a decade. Picking up JR Smith or Kenyon Martin in March (I've heard both rumored) would help also.
 

jon abbey

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Also if they do get to the playoffs, they will have some interesting and favorable head to head matchups with some of the other star players in the East, depending on who they draw. In Chandler, they have one of the handful of guys who can guard Dwight Howard 1-on-1 (as he showed this past week), and in Melo, they have one of the few guys who LeBron consistently has trouble matching up with head to head. Melo has amazingly won 9 of their 13 career meetings thus far:

http://www.basketbal...01&p2=jamesle01

Rose would probably kill them, but he kills pretty much everyone. I am curious to see how Shumpert matches up against him, his D has been insanely good so far, Tony Allen-esque. He is second in the league in steals right now, behind only Chris Paul.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Good post. I do agree that time will tell and this will be great to look back on in a few months.

Edit - I do want to add though, do you think that Amare's troubles finishing off of the pick and role are due because of poor point guard play or possibly because of the fact that Chandler clogs the lane with his inability to stretch the floor with any sort of mid range game which results in more double team situations against Amare? I think that is some good food for thought.
I certainly think that's part of it, though I think the real problem is multi-faceted. The lack of a point guard really shows itself with Amare not just in the low percentage of pick and rolls he's finishing, but in the low number of pick and rolls he's even involved in--and you're right that Chandler's inability to space the floor is a cause of that. Because the ball has to be in Carmelo's hands in pick and roll situations and Chandler isn't a legit 3rd option shooting from the elbow, the role of 3rd option shooter has fallen to Stoudemire. Ordinarily, that would actually be a good role for him, as he's (traditionally, at least) been a great shooter from that range, but the pass to the 3rd option shooter on the pick and roll is traditionally the more difficult pass to make, and simply put, Carmelo can't make it.

So, out of necessity, Carmelo's been running pick and rolls with Chandler as the roll man and Amare as the 3rd option shooter. Carmelo is decent, though still below average, at making the simple pass in the pick and roll (usually a lob to Chandler in the Knicks case), but never gets Amare the ball in a position where he can do anything with it. This, I think, is the major cause of Amare's poor shooting thus far this year. He's not getting the ball in space, and since he's never been particularly adept at creating his own shot, he's been taking most of his shots with a guy in his face. Add to this that last year he spent most of his time at the 5 so this year the guys guarding him are quicker, and it makes a lot of sense that he's shooting poorly and his production is down. And because Chandler isn't a shooter, you can't run a Carelo pick and roll with Amare as the roll man, as Chandler's defender will just sag off of him and provide help when Amare rolls.

Which is why I think Baron will be a big addition for the Knicks. When Baron is healthy, he'll run the pick and roll with Amare, and Carmelo will be the third option on those plays. Baron will be much better than Carmelo at getting Amare the ball in places where he can do something with it (as the Hollinger statistic that Abbey posted proves), which will open up mid-range catch and shoot opportunities for Carmelo. In addition, Amare as the roll man will force defenses to collapse into the lane which A) will open up better looks for Fields/Shumpert/Bibby from the corner and B) will allow Chandler to crash the offensive glass.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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My main question is: will the gains on offense provided by Davis be offset by the defense? Shumpert isn't a good PG. At all. But he is a very solid defender. Even with him, teams are shooting 42% from the 3pt line against the Knicks? Perimeter defense doesn't figure to improve when you insert an old, chunky Baron Davis into the lineup. I still see the Knicks' "best case" scenario being well below the Miami/Chicago level. Of course, that is true for almost every team in the Eastern Conference.
I think it'll basically be a wash. Fields has been pretty bad on the defensive end this year, and I fully expect him to be replaced in the starting 5 by Shumpert. So, basically you're improving your defense drastically at the 2, and seeing about an equal decline at the 1. So, basically a wash, I think.

And I completely agree. This team, as constituted, is still several players away from being at the level of Miami or Chicago.
 

Mike in CT

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Another humiliation for the Knicks. Milwaukee (0-8 on the road coming into the game) cruises to a 100-86 win at MSG.

D'Antoni really needs the Giants to win this weekend.
 

NYCSox

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Yeah but we really can't say much with our putrid 5-9 record can we?

At this rate the Sixers are going to clinch the division by President's Day.
 

Mike in CT

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Yeah but we really can't say much with our putrid 5-9 record can we?
The Celtics are done, but they reached 2 Finals and won a ring with significantly older Big 3. The Knick core are all still in their prime. You can argue they can't be that good because of the PG position, but these losses are to dreadful teams, at MSG.

I bet right now you couldn't find a Knick fan that would bet $50 the Melo/Amare/Chandler group will ever even reach the Finals during their next few years together.

Anyways, Nuggets beat the Knicks tonight at MSG in 2OT. Had to feel good for Gallo to drop 37 points.

If Steve Nash is supposed to be the guy that makes it all better, do you have to keep D'Antoni around?
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Welcome to the 2011/2012 NBA season, Amar'e.
Yeah, good to have him back.

Also, Fields has looked vastly improved over the the last 8 games or so. He looked lost on both ends to open the season, and it's been refreshing to see him shooting the ball well again. At least until Davis is healthy, he needs to be their third scorer, and recently he's stepped into the role pretty well. I'm glad to say that it looks like I was wrong earlier in the thread when I said he didn't have any value to the Knicks or in the trade market.
 

eddiew112

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Yeah, good to have him back.

Also, Fields has looked vastly improved over the the last 8 games or so. He looked lost on both ends to open the season, and it's been refreshing to see him shooting the ball well again. At least until Davis is healthy, he needs to be their third scorer, and recently he's stepped into the role pretty well. I'm glad to say that it looks like I was wrong earlier in the thread when I said he didn't have any value to the Knicks or in the trade market.
Fields is playing within himself again, which is good news for the Knicks. It looked to me last night like the injuries were really hampering Melo's game. He had no explosiveness at the rim; I counted probably 4-5 opportunities that got blocked.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So you think it's "very unlikely" that Lin will have a PER higher than 2.2 and that Shumpert is the better PG? I'm excited to revisit this discussion in April.

And, like I said, the Knicks (who I do not play for, fyi) are not a great team, and I have zero expectation of them getting by Chicago or Miami. But, with a true point guard, I expect their offense to improve and for them to beat the sort of teams they've been losing to recently. Further, the Knicks are running their offense through Carmelo out of necessity. D'Antoni's system, as everybody knows, is reliant on the point guard and very pick and roll heavy, which the Knicks have been terrible at running this year due to their lack of a true point guard. Stoudemire, for instance, has finished just 3.2 percent of the pick and roll's the Knicks have run this year. With Felton running the point last year, that number was just under 15%. Carmelo finishes well in pick and roll situations with the ball in his hands (1.2 PPP in pick and roll situations) but is very poor at creating for the roll man, and as a result, defenses dont have to collapse on the roll man and the other shooters (Amare in particular) don't get open looks off of kick outs. Jeremy Lin will distribute to the roll man more effectively than Carmelo/Shumpert/Douglas have thus far, and doing so will create better looks for everybody.
From "The Warriors have the next Steve Nash on their roster?" http://dimemag.com/2...n-their-roster/

Nash is a Santa Clara product, which has as much basketball fame as Lin’s Harvard University. But just like Nash, the former Ivy Leaguer made the most of his small opportunity. Lin’s fearless competitiveness made NBA scouts take notice of the California native. He opened people’s eyes by putting up 16.4 points, 4.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game as a senior. His stats were not too far off from Nash’s senior year stats — 17 points 3.5 rebounds and 6 assists per contest.

Their size and style of play are also fairly similar. Both stand 6-foot-3, both weigh around 200 pounds. Each is a blur in the open court, with great vision and dependable pull-up jumpers. And most of all, both Nash and Lin rarely pick up their dribble, a lost art among point guards. By always keeping his options open with the ball in play, Nash creates extra time and space for himself and for his teammates to get open and get buckets. I think that knack for keeping his dribble is what will translate into Nash-type success for Lin more than anything. Very few players can keep their dribble while under pressure, and those who do increase their chances of being good NBA point guards.
 

radsoxfan

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I've been impressed by Lin whenever I've seen him. He clearly should be getting minutes over the shitshow that is Douglass et al. at the point. When Baron comes back, he may have to assume a lesser role.

He definitely has some Nash-like qualities, but its worth noting he is not close to as good a shooter (of course pretty much no one in NBA history is). But part of Nash's value is his shooting, which forces teams to guard him so closely and opens up the lane for his drives/passes. Lin isn't a bad shooter (but he's probably just average), but defenses won't be forced to play him like they have to play Nash.

Even so, he seems to be a good fit for D'antoni's system and I'm curious how he does with more minutes.
 

jon abbey

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Even so, he seems to be a good fit for D'antoni's system and I'm curious how he does with more minutes.
He isn't really a good fit, as you say, he's not a great shooter and that is the main thing D'Antoni's system necessitates. But NY is so starved for anyone with any kind of PG skills at this point that he can still have an impact.

More than anything, I think, it was a glimpse of what NY can be with any kind of competent guard play. Put Baron Davis and JR Smith with Melo/Amare/Chandler and a few competent bench players and you've got an actual team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I've been impressed by Lin whenever I've seen him. He clearly should be getting minutes over the shitshow that is Douglass et al. at the point. When Baron comes back, he may have to assume a lesser role. He definitely has some Nash-like qualities, but its worth noting he is not close to as good a shooter (of course pretty much no one in NBA history is). But part of Nash's value is his shooting, which forces teams to guard him so closely and opens up the lane for his drives/passes. Lin isn't a bad shooter (but he's probably just average), but defenses won't be forced to play him like they have to play Nash. Even so, he seems to be a good fit for D'antoni's system and I'm curious how he does with more minutes.
Yes, he's not the shooter that Nash is, but Nash never did this:

 

radsoxfan

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He isn't really a good fit, as you say, he's not a great shooter and that is the main thing D'Antoni's system necessitates. But NY is so starved for anyone with any kind of PG skills at this point that he can still have an impact.

More than anything, I think, it was a glimpse of what NY can be with any kind of competent guard play. Put Baron Davis and JR Smith with Melo/Amare/Chandler and a few competent bench players and you've got an actual team.
I think D'Antoni's system, more than anything, needs a playmaking PG who can penetrate, run the pick' roll, and make the right pass. Nash was ideal because he can do all of that, plus he is a deadly shooter. But I think the shooting is secondary for a PG in his system. If anything, being a good shooter is more important for the wings and bigs who will be the recipient of the open looks the PG will create. Baron (if healthy) will be a fine fit too, and he is not a good shooter. Even Rondo I think could thrive in that system.

In contrast, the ISO offense of alternating between Carmelo/Amare post-ups is definitely not his system. Thats why having Lin, or any playmaking PG, is so crucial.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Jeremy Lin with 23 and 10 with a couple of minutes left in the 4th. It's his 3rd straight 20 point game and the Knicks have now won three in a row. It's really pretty remarkable how much better the ball movement has been over the last 3 games. Lin plays with his head up and finds the open man. The offense has actually looked like a D'Antoni offense since he started getting minutes, and I have to think that he's going to be good for Stoudemire. We'll see, I guess.
 

Brickowski

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Melo's and Amare's absence couldn't have anything to do with the improved ball movement-- could it? LOL.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Melo's and Amare's absence couldn't have anything to do with the improved ball movement-- could it? LOL.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Melo comes back. Lin said that the Knicks ran pick and roll against the Wizards almost every time down ("like 100 times"). I'm sure that will be fine with Amare, but will 'Melo take to sitting the corner and waiting for the ball to get to him?

SSS caveat, but here is some advanced statistics w/r/t Lin's first two games: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/36575/knicks-finding-success-with-lin-on-point. Of note: "More than 61 percent of Lin's offense has been in the pick-and-roll, the sixth-highest rate in the NBA. Only five players with at least 80 pick-and-roll plays have more points per possession."

I think that has gone up to #3.

One note - Lin has played against NJ, which is apparently the worst team in the league defending the pick-and-roll, Utah, which is below average and was pretty bad that particular night (particularly Jefferson), and the Wizards, who were so bad that Randy Wittman's son - who played at Cornell - texted him and said that his Cornell team defended the PnR better than the Wizards. I thought Lin was less effective in the short stint he had against the Celtics.
 

jon abbey

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Well, the Lakers were tired but played hard, especially in the second half, and Lin was pretty unstoppable, a career high 38. He's averaging 29 and 8 assists in his first four starts, even discounting for the D'Antoni bump, that's incredible, especially considering how little help he's getting on offense with Melo, Amare and Baron all out.
 

Nick Kaufman

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I am dumbfounded by the Lin thing. How does a guy get undrafted and then get picked and cut by two teams only to suddenly start recording all star numbers? How can the NBA so seriously undervalue this guy? Has there been a case like that in the past? Who is the most successful undrafted player?

Alternatively, the most logical thing should still be that all NBA teams couldn't have been so wrong and Lin is going to prove to be a flash in the pan. In the past there have been a lot of second unit players like Tony Delk or Nick Anderson who went on tears for a couple of weeks or even a couple of months and Lin could belong in that category. But still... who has started so hot? Just perplexing.
 

jon abbey

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He reminds me of JJ Barea a bit, undrafted out of a Massachusetts college. They need to cut down his minutes ASAP, but a four man guard rotation of Baron/JR Smith/Lin/Shumpert is looking like it might be pretty solid (if of course they can sign Smith).
 

BoredViewer

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Until he stops looking like an all-star, I'm pretty sure he's the guy that will be getting 35 mpg, regardless of who is injured and coming back.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I am dumbfounded by the Lin thing. How does a guy get undrafted and then get picked and cut by two teams only to suddenly start recording all star numbers? How can the NBA so seriously undervalue this guy? Has there been a case like that in the past? Who is the most successful undrafted player?
Here is a list: http://bleacherrepor...-history/page/2.

They have Ben Wallace and John Starks at the top, which is probably about right.

So you have to understand that the NBA draft is even more of a beauty contest than the MLB draft. But - and as Danny as come to realize - there is a generally a niche for players that have at least one NBA ready skill. And what Lin does better than almost anyone right now is run the pick-n-roll.

One thing to note about Lin. As far as I can tell, his teammates have always been rather pedestrian, even in High School. It must be a revelation for him to be able to come off the PnR and be able to throw it up to someone like Chandler or kick it to a shooter like Novak.

I'm sure Amare will feel right at home playing with Lin, but I wonder what will happen when 'Melo comes back? Has 'Melo ever been on the team when he wasn't dominating the ball?

edit: Other interesting question - how much is Lin going to command next year?
 

jon abbey

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NY steals one in Minnesota, behind most of the game and MIN getting call after call, Love and Pekovic killing them (53 points/34 boards combined), Lin finally hitting the wall in the second half, but MIN ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, Novak and Shumpert hit some big shots, and NY has won 5 in a row.

Amare back next game, NY needs these wins, as their schedule starts to get much harder in about a week.
 

ivanvamp

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I don't like the Knicks at all, but (a) I like Carmelo (obviously as an SU alum there's a special place in my heart reserved for him for the national championship), and (b) it's really hard not to root for Lin. What a story. Seems like a great kid and man, he's been incredible.
 

jon abbey

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Most points in first four career starts since the 1976 merger as of this AM:

Iverson-101
Shaq-100
Jordan-99

Jeremy Lin just put up 109.
 

SteveCrawford

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never tire of the 'flash in the pan' references to Lin. next it will be well we've only seen two weeks and w/o melo.
 

stevman17

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So,

Lin
Fields
Melo
Amare
Chandler

That is an impressive starting 5 come playoff time. I would think that Melo and Amare, at their respective career stages having signed big contracts, would be willing to work with the pick and roll in an effort to win a championship. Their bench is weak, to say the least. Shumpert is a nice player. Novak can make some threes. Bill Walker and Jared Jeffries are human beings who play basketball. Their biggest question is going to be whether Chandler can keep playing around 40 minutes a night. If the Knicks can keep up a .500 pace while keeping their starters' minutes down, they have the potential to shake things up in the east.
 

jon abbey

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You're (understandably) forgetting Baron Davis, Harrellson is an OK bench big man once he is healthy again in a few weeks, and they're still trying to sign JR Smith once he's available. Then you'd have:

Lin/Davis
Shumpert
Melo
Amare
Chandler

Davis/Lin
Smith
Fields
Harrellson
Novak
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Until proven otherwise, Baron Davis is a bloated, unfocused combo guard who pouts when things aren't going his way and isn't primarily focused on his NBA career. He is one of the more frustrating NBA talents this side of Derek Coleman - had he worked harder early in his career, he might have been a top-ten or even a top-five player at his peak.

And for the record, Davis, if healthy and effective, can be a decent shooter. Those are big ifs at this point in time though...
 

stevman17

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J.R. Smith would be awesome coming off the bench. Career 18.8points/3.0assists/4.2rebounds per 36 minutes. I've always liked him. From this link "The Knicks have more money and a bigger role to offer than other suitors such as the Lakers and Clippers." Is this true, do the Knicks have money available? I was under the impression they were totally cash strapped. Are there any big men that might become available for the Knicks? A Udonis Haslem type off the bench would be perfect I would think.Can Harrellson play defense? If so, that's a really good team, right?

Regarding Davis, (I knew there was something I missed. I just looked up in the thread and saw a 20 post flame war regarding Davis. I'm scared now.) having him couldn't hurt. He put up 16.6 points/ 8.5 assists / 3.4 rebounds per 36 minutes last year in 58 games. That is also really good, right? There are better point guards, certainly, but Chris Paul is not walking through that door. If he put up those kinds of numbers while not being focused on his NBA career, I'd be willing to bet that he will succeed playing in MSG for an championship contender. Now, it looks like Davis is signed at a 1 year deal, so he probably won't be as willing to take a back seat role as Amare or Melo hopefully would be with their futures locked up. On the other hand, he could prove the doubters wrong and get a big contract from someone if he plays a vital role on the team. D'Antoni is going to need a lot of Xanax.

Edit: Allen Iverson is only 36....JUST KIDDING!
 

stevman17

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So, in trying to figure out the salary cap situation for the Knicks (which I havn't really come close to doing), it is amazing how they have been able to turn the franchise around. In 2005-06 the Knicks payroll was $124 and they paid $62.3 million in luxury tax. Their payroll is now $72 million, and they only have $59 million locked up for next year. It looks like the luxury tax level for 2011-12 is $70 million.

According to Hoopshype.com, the Lakers are at $84 million right now, and the the Clippers are at $59 million. So, assuming Smith signed for the max mid-level exception, $3 million for teams over the cap who paid luxury tax last year and average league salary. He could only get $3 million playing for the Knicks or Lakers, but could get ~ $6 million for the Clippers, who didn't pay the tax last year. If I was him, I would take double the money and go play with Chris Paul.
 

jon abbey

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NY has their $2.5M exception still for Smith, but if it's true that the Clippers can give him double the money, he can replace Chauncey Billups there.

Someone should replace Lintomania with Linsanity in the thread title.
Nope, too overused already.
 

EvilEmpire

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Nope, too overused already.
The Liszt reference does seem a bit too obscure. How about something like "Talent Linfusion...or the Knick Thread"?


Edit: and when the hype gets too out of control and the kid starts to come back to earth, I vote for "Linebriated"
 

jon abbey

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Sticking with this one until I'm 1) overruled by a Dope, 2) Lin comes back to earth, 3) I get sick of looking at it, or 4) Baron Davis comes back and starts kicking ass.
 

dolomite133

everything I write, think and feel is stupid
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2002
5,920
Littleton, NH
Straight Bal-Lin ... The Knicks Thread
In Like Lin ... NYC and the battle for the eight seed
A Spike Lin Joint ... The Knicks Thread
Crook Lin ... Stealing The Show, The 1 and the 8 seed
Never Mind Yao Ming ... The Knicks Thread

Lintomania sounds like something involving sweaters and an OCD-like mental illness.