Jacksonity......or the Knick thread
- Thread starter Rocco Graziosa
- Start date
Some disparate thoughts:
Read somewhere that the Knicks ran 9 pick and rolls in the last game Before the Jeremy Lin Era, and then ran something like 49 in the Lakers game. I used to be much more of an NBA watcher than I am now, so I can't say this with any certainty, but isn't Melo more of an isolation player? Does he pick and roll?
I've watched Lin since he made Harvard ball relevant again... he's always had the skills, and there was even talk of him possibly being drafted, so it wasn't like he was completely outside the radar. Being Asian-American probably affected how he was viewed, but I'd say being from Harvard might be even more so.
I like that Lin's best skills aren't what you might stereotypically expect: he isn't that great a long-distance shooter, but he loves the crossover, and loves to drive. A bit too much, perhaps, but then he was carrying the whole team up till the 2nd half of that T-Wolves game.
On the business of basketball: I think it was interesting that the Warriors cut him to create cap space. Seems to me that having to cut cheap players (whether they turn out to be good or not) to try to sign bigger names isn't a good effect of the salary cap.
Finally, whether or not he stays great or hits a wall, I've enjoyed Lintomania. It's like Mark Fidrych or Fernandomania - sudden explosions of talent on the scene are always fun.
Read somewhere that the Knicks ran 9 pick and rolls in the last game Before the Jeremy Lin Era, and then ran something like 49 in the Lakers game. I used to be much more of an NBA watcher than I am now, so I can't say this with any certainty, but isn't Melo more of an isolation player? Does he pick and roll?
I've watched Lin since he made Harvard ball relevant again... he's always had the skills, and there was even talk of him possibly being drafted, so it wasn't like he was completely outside the radar. Being Asian-American probably affected how he was viewed, but I'd say being from Harvard might be even more so.
I like that Lin's best skills aren't what you might stereotypically expect: he isn't that great a long-distance shooter, but he loves the crossover, and loves to drive. A bit too much, perhaps, but then he was carrying the whole team up till the 2nd half of that T-Wolves game.
On the business of basketball: I think it was interesting that the Warriors cut him to create cap space. Seems to me that having to cut cheap players (whether they turn out to be good or not) to try to sign bigger names isn't a good effect of the salary cap.
Finally, whether or not he stays great or hits a wall, I've enjoyed Lintomania. It's like Mark Fidrych or Fernandomania - sudden explosions of talent on the scene are always fun.
How would that even work? Would you have Chandler or Howard at PF? Do you even bother or do you just have the two sit under the basket as Melo hoists up shot after shot?
I think people have a tendency to misinterpret the purpose/design of the pick and roll and make the assumption that it's basically a two man play. More than anything, the pick and roll is designed to create space on the floor and force as many defenders as possible to make a decision in the same instant. So, while Carmelo isn't traditionally great in the pick and roll, I don't think that precludes him from benefiting from playing in a pick and roll heavy offense off the ball. He's going to be getting the ball in a lot more space than he has so far this season, and with his mid-range game he's definitely capable of hurting teams, regardless of whether they use their help to take away Amare or choose to stop the ball.
Oh I know, I just took a second to actually think about it. Like I said no immediately then tried to envision the trainwreck which would be that trade.
Thomasotian so yea Dolan might actually do it.
Lin has the perfect name for NY Post headline puns
Virtual Linsanity
Born to Lin
Lin or Go Home
“LINNING” (said in Charlie Sheen voice)
Linning and Grinning
Crouching Tiger Hidden Point Guard
Puttin the MSG Back in the Garden
Linsane in the Membrane
Linto the Wild
For the Lin
Lin City
Original Lin
All I Do is Lin
Super Lintendo
Way of the Linja
Linconcievable
The Linstigator
Sir Lincelot
The Linsulin Shot
the possibilites are endless
Virtual Linsanity
Born to Lin
Lin or Go Home
“LINNING” (said in Charlie Sheen voice)
Linning and Grinning
Crouching Tiger Hidden Point Guard
Puttin the MSG Back in the Garden
Linsane in the Membrane
Linto the Wild
For the Lin
Lin City
Original Lin
All I Do is Lin
Super Lintendo
Way of the Linja
Linconcievable
The Linstigator
Sir Lincelot
The Linsulin Shot
the possibilites are endless
The subsequent move would ideally be Chandler for a PG, you could also sign Nash for the midcap this offseason possibly and just go with a Twin Towers to cover up the defensive deficiencies of Nash and Melo. Also Chris Paul may still be available after next season, and his friendship with Melo hasn't gone away.
Lin will likely command the midcap exemption this offseason, so it's basically Amare and Lin for Dwight Howard and Nash (assuming NY could get him, he does have a place in NYC already). I think NY would be crazy not to do that, public relations be damned.
In other news, Lin is on the cover of the upcoming SI.
I like watching Jeremy Lin. He's got good recognition skills, a soft touch off the glass and on the floater in the lane, and a good enough touch on the mid-range jumper to keep the defense honest. The interesting part will be seeing whether Anthony and Stoudamire can meld their games with his. I'm thinking that Stoudamire will have an easier time of it, since his game is predicated on the mid-range jumper off the pick-and-roll or -pop.
Anthony is a ballhog at heart, and I don't know that he'll mix in so well. The Knicks should look to acquire a long-distance shooter who can spread the floor and move without the ball...
... like Ray Allen?
Anthony is a ballhog at heart, and I don't know that he'll mix in so well. The Knicks should look to acquire a long-distance shooter who can spread the floor and move without the ball...
... like Ray Allen?
I agree that there's a chance it doesn't work and that Anthony has some trouble adjusting, but it's not as if there's not a track record of non-pick and roll guys succeeding in D'Antoni's offense. Shawn Marion, for instance, had his best years in Phoenix playing alongside the Nash-Amare pick and roll. In fact, Marion's shooting percentages fell of pretty substantially as soon as he left Phoenix, from everywhere on the court. He got a lot of open looks from 16-23 feet and from behind the arc thanks to the space created by defenses collapsing on Amare rolling to the rim. Since he left the Suns, Marion has averaged 13.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, shot 28% from 3, and 50% from the field. In Phoenix (after Nash and D'Antoni showed up), he averaged 18.7 ppg, 10.8 rpg, shot 33% from 3, and 51% from the field. While the field goal percentage is really similar there, if you take a look at hoopdata you can see a substantial decline between how he shot from certain parts of the floor with Nash, and how he shot from those areas without Nash.
Now, of course, Jeremy Lin is not Steve Nash. But, if the type of looks Carmelo gets with Lin on the floor are similar to the types of looks Marion got in Phoenix, Carmelo is going to benefit from playing in this system. He's a much better shooter than Marion, and is a much better shooter from the specific ranges that seemed to spike for Marion when he played in Phoenix.
It depends on at what level chemistry works. Pick-and-rolls depend on timing and skills among the driver and the pick-setter, as well as the persistence of the third option in getting open, using back picks set by the fourth option. I'm not sure that Marion is a good comp for Anthony, mostly because Marion is a 3rd or 4th option, while Anthony has an ego finely calibrated to being the first option, yet he doesn't pass very well out of the double team. Marion's stats may have as much to do with the stage in his career as his chemistry with the teammates (although most players do better on offense when playing off a great point guard like Nash). Anthony creates his own shot, while the next shot that Marion creates off his dribble might be his first.
Basically, I think that Anthony's ego and skillset could get in the way.
Certainly a lot of the latter, but Howard at PF would be impossible to guard, not many centers even can consistently.
I agree, I can see it going either way, but for me it's more ego/mindset than skillset. It'll probably be D'Antoni's biggest test yet, I'm not optimistic about him pulling it off. I'm hoping the rumors of Dolan making a huge offer to Rick Carlisle over the summer are true, I've always been a fan of his.
Or if they miraculously ended up with that Howard/Chandler frontline, hire Jerry Sloan and just pummel the crap out of teams like in the Oakley/Mason days.
I like Lin....but if NY turned down Amare and Lin for Howard they would be crazy (assuming Howard agreed to an extension of course). I don't care if Chandler doesn't mesh that well with Dwight. Figure that out later. They could certainly find a good guard if they want to get rid of Chandler anyway.
Amare is already overpaid, and in a couple years on those knees his contract might be a complete disaster. More than half the teams NBA wouldn't take him and that contract on their team for absolutely nothing. I certainly wouldn't want the Celtics to take on that deal even if they didn't have to trade anything in return.
That contract is 18M, 20M, 22M, 23M over the next 4 years..... He has never played defense, always been a surprisingly mediocre rebounder, and relies way too much on waning athleticism. NY signed him to make a splash and bring them back to respectability. But it was never a good contract, and if they can get Howard for a FA they overpaid and an undrafted FA, it would be an Auerbachian coup for the ages.
Howard, on the other hand, is probably worth twice whatever max deal he gets. Lin is nice, but the upgrade from Amare to Howard is beyond huge. Lin doesn't make up the difference
Amare is already overpaid, and in a couple years on those knees his contract might be a complete disaster. More than half the teams NBA wouldn't take him and that contract on their team for absolutely nothing. I certainly wouldn't want the Celtics to take on that deal even if they didn't have to trade anything in return.
That contract is 18M, 20M, 22M, 23M over the next 4 years..... He has never played defense, always been a surprisingly mediocre rebounder, and relies way too much on waning athleticism. NY signed him to make a splash and bring them back to respectability. But it was never a good contract, and if they can get Howard for a FA they overpaid and an undrafted FA, it would be an Auerbachian coup for the ages.
Howard, on the other hand, is probably worth twice whatever max deal he gets. Lin is nice, but the upgrade from Amare to Howard is beyond huge. Lin doesn't make up the difference
If they end up with Howard and Chandler then the Knicks can put up the All-Lob Offense. Lin throws precise lobs. Maybe they should trade Anthony instead.I agree, I can see it going either way, but for me it's more ego/mindset than skillset. It'll probably be D'Antoni's biggest test yet, I'm not optimistic about him pulling it off. I'm hoping the rumors of Dolan making a huge offer to Rick Carlisle over the summer are true, I've always been a fan of his.
Or if they miraculously ended up with that Howard/Chandler frontline, hire Jerry Sloan and just pummel the crap out of teams like in the Oakley/Mason days.
I agree about Carlisle's brand of tough love and defense first being a good fit after D'Antoni. D'Antoni would be a great coach for whatever team Rondo ends up on.
I agree with rad about Amare's status as a complementary scorer, not worthy of a major star's contract. Even so, a playmaker like Lin or Rondo should get more out of him than he's shown so far.
What PG would Chandler get?
The big problem is there is absolutely no blend whatsoever to Howard's and Melo's game. That and having absolutely no talent at guard would make the Knicks a walkover. Nash isn't going to help.
Also why would the Magic play with Amare's contract? Lin and Amare wouldn't win. Amare kills cap space and Lin is free to escape back to the West Coast.
The trade makes both teams worst in the long run.
Edit- is Chris Paul playing for a Vet Min in that dream world?
The big problem is there is absolutely no blend whatsoever to Howard's and Melo's game. That and having absolutely no talent at guard would make the Knicks a walkover. Nash isn't going to help.
Also why would the Magic play with Amare's contract? Lin and Amare wouldn't win. Amare kills cap space and Lin is free to escape back to the West Coast.
The trade makes both teams worst in the long run.
Edit- is Chris Paul playing for a Vet Min in that dream world?
I always thought Melo and Howard would be ideal teammates, with a competent PG of course. I was surprised Orlando didn't go after Melo last year, but of course they had no real trade chips.
Probably the midcap.
Yep, I don't disagree with you on any of this. I only brought up Marion to illustrate that you don't have to be a pick and roll guy or pure shooter to succeed in this system. But I totally agree that it's going to require Melo buying in.
What sort of "blend" do Carmelo and Howard lack?
I'm not sure I agree with the idea that you can't build a team around one of the league's best iso scorers and the league's most dominant defensive player. If this unlikely scenario were to come to pass and the Knicks found themselves with a roster with two of the best defenders in the league, isn't the obvious strategy to build a defensive minded team? And if you have a defensive minded team, isn't it a huge asset to have one of the league's best iso scorers late in games? If they were able to bring in Nash (and I don't know what about his play leads you to state so simply that he wouldn't help), there's no reason to think that team wouldn't be a league average offense at the very least. Hell, it's not like Howard isn't a great pick and roll player. Three years ago, he and Jameer Nelson paired up to be the most efficient pick and roll in terms of points per possession in the league, and regardless of age, Nash is still a clear upgrade over Jameer Nelson. At this point, I don't think there's a team in the East that's going to stop the Heat, but if I were putting one together based on what's available, a team with two dominant post defenders that would keep LeBron and Wade away from the rim as well as anybody would be a great place to start.
All that said, Orlando would be stupid to take Amare and it wont happen.
The team would be ugly to watch, but there's not a single team in the league that would look forward to playing them, and the idea that they'd be a walk over and be worse off in the long run is far from the certainty you seem to think it is.
Also, one thing no one ever seems to mention about Melo is that he plays LeBron head to head as well as anyone in the league, his team is 11-4 in career head to head meetings, I believe.
Meanwhile, Lin already had to skip practice yesterday because of a sore ankle. They really need to cut his minutes down ASAP, hopefully Baron will be ready in the next week or two.
Melo is not a good defender. Melo is below average most of the time and occasionally shows up when he feels like it. Howard is an absolute beast. Howard ends up wanting to strangle Melo in less than four weeks.
Howard is not a good offensive player quite a bit of the time, that's why they would complement each other, like Pierce and Garnett when they first got together (and Pierce was not a good defender pre-Garnett).
They are nothing like Garnett and Pierce. Pierce may have lapses but he has always been a much much much (you might as well add twenty muches here) better defensive player than Melo. Pierce could also operate in offenses other than iso. Also with Garnett you get a much dynamic offense player.
Knicks fans really did deserve Isiah Thomas.
Edit - Pierce is 4 DWS player who became 5 DWS player when Garnett came aboard. Melo is 2.5 DWS player.
Melo is disgustingly lazy at defense. He has the ability to be a top defender in the league but at this point I doubt it will ever happen..
Knicks fans really did deserve Isiah Thomas.
Edit - Pierce is 4 DWS player who became 5 DWS player when Garnett came aboard. Melo is 2.5 DWS player.
Melo is disgustingly lazy at defense. He has the ability to be a top defender in the league but at this point I doubt it will ever happen..
Dude, don't make me go back and find some of the stupidities I've read from you over the years. What I'm talking about is no more ridiculous than the whole thread devoted to Howard coming to the Celtics. As G&MB said, it's not going to happen anyway, but a man can dream.
The Garnett and Pierce to Howard and Melo comparison is something someone knows nominal amount about basketball would say.
I really think the move for the Knicks would be trading Melo for Howard. If I was the Magic I would try Turk and Howard for Melo and Chandler.
Back into the land of reality (well, not really. Just back to the land where they don't get Dwight Howard).
If the Knicks sign J.R. Smith, they have a lot of minutes to divvy up once they are at full strength. That's really the most interesting part of what Lin has brought to the team to me. All of a sudden, you are talking about a deep, flexible team. D'Antoni will have a ton of options when you talk about a starting five of Lin/Smith/Anthony/Stoudemire/Chandler and a bench that consists of B. Davis/Shumpert/Fields/Jeffries/Novak/Harrelson (not even including Bill Walker and Toney Douglas, who get buried).
If I'm D'Antoni, I'm slightly tweaking my rotations to do the following:
-Maximize the amount of time Lin and STAT are on the court together (and manage the time they are interacting with Carmelo).
-Lower everyone's minutes substantially.
-Try to put Novak and Smith in a set with the Lin/STAT combo. A Lin/Smith/Fields/Novak/STAT lineup could be lethal. Likewise, a Davis/Shumpert/Anthony/Jeffries/Chandler set really plays well to everyone's strengths.
I spent (read: Wasted) some time playing with the lineups in Excel, and you can put these together for 4-6 minute stretches in which your minute breakdown looks as below and follows the rule of having your starting lineup together for the first and last 8 minutes or so. It'd be interesting to see what D'Antoni can do with a deep team that has flexibility.
Minutes:
Anthony 34
Stoudemire 32
Chandler 32
Lin 30
Smith 28
Shumpert 20
Davis 18
Fields 16
Jeffries 12
Harrelson 10
Novak 8
To me, the Knicks at full strength are a championship contender this year. You can go big/small. You have quickness, shooting, end of game scoring, PnR, depth. Defensively, we know the limitations of Amare and Carmelo, but there are also three excellent defenders on the perimeter (Shumpert) and in the post (Chandler and Jeffries).
To take it a step further, this team NEEDS to make a serious run this year. The cap situation won't allow this sort of depth next year, as Davis/Smith would not really be possibilities at their costs, and Novak/Jeffries (two reasonable role players) may or may not be able to be resigned at their current salary levels. You won't be able to add another piece as the MLE will have to go towards Lin assuming he is somewhere in the realm of a NBA starting PG.
Add in the intrigue of D'Antoni's job situation, and the fact that I'd say his ability to pull this situation together is the lynchpin, and I'm suddenly fascinated with this season.
If the Knicks sign J.R. Smith, they have a lot of minutes to divvy up once they are at full strength. That's really the most interesting part of what Lin has brought to the team to me. All of a sudden, you are talking about a deep, flexible team. D'Antoni will have a ton of options when you talk about a starting five of Lin/Smith/Anthony/Stoudemire/Chandler and a bench that consists of B. Davis/Shumpert/Fields/Jeffries/Novak/Harrelson (not even including Bill Walker and Toney Douglas, who get buried).
If I'm D'Antoni, I'm slightly tweaking my rotations to do the following:
-Maximize the amount of time Lin and STAT are on the court together (and manage the time they are interacting with Carmelo).
-Lower everyone's minutes substantially.
-Try to put Novak and Smith in a set with the Lin/STAT combo. A Lin/Smith/Fields/Novak/STAT lineup could be lethal. Likewise, a Davis/Shumpert/Anthony/Jeffries/Chandler set really plays well to everyone's strengths.
I spent (read: Wasted) some time playing with the lineups in Excel, and you can put these together for 4-6 minute stretches in which your minute breakdown looks as below and follows the rule of having your starting lineup together for the first and last 8 minutes or so. It'd be interesting to see what D'Antoni can do with a deep team that has flexibility.
Minutes:
Anthony 34
Stoudemire 32
Chandler 32
Lin 30
Smith 28
Shumpert 20
Davis 18
Fields 16
Jeffries 12
Harrelson 10
Novak 8
To me, the Knicks at full strength are a championship contender this year. You can go big/small. You have quickness, shooting, end of game scoring, PnR, depth. Defensively, we know the limitations of Amare and Carmelo, but there are also three excellent defenders on the perimeter (Shumpert) and in the post (Chandler and Jeffries).
To take it a step further, this team NEEDS to make a serious run this year. The cap situation won't allow this sort of depth next year, as Davis/Smith would not really be possibilities at their costs, and Novak/Jeffries (two reasonable role players) may or may not be able to be resigned at their current salary levels. You won't be able to add another piece as the MLE will have to go towards Lin assuming he is somewhere in the realm of a NBA starting PG.
Add in the intrigue of D'Antoni's job situation, and the fact that I'd say his ability to pull this situation together is the lynchpin, and I'm suddenly fascinated with this season.
Just so I'm clear, your argument as to why a Howard, Chandler, Carmelo team wouldn't work is that, because of Carmelo, Howard would be too frustrated with how they function on the defensive end?
Here's where Orlando has ranked in defensive efficiency over the last couple of years:
07-08 - 5th
08-09 - 1st
09-10 - 1st
10-11 - 3rd
And who were the great defenders at the 3 that Howard was playing alongside of? Hedo Turkoglu, Quentin Richardson, Rashard Lewis, and Vince Carter who are all either worse than or roughly equivalent to Carmelo on the defensive end. And in this scenario you'd be replacing defensive stalwarts like Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass with Tyson Chandler, and yet somehow, Dwight Howard is going to be so frustrated with Carmelo that they could never coexist? A team playing Howard and Chandler together for significant minutes would be the best defensive team in the league with you playing the 3.
You do realize that Turkoglu is statistically a better defender than Melo, right? Right there pretty much paints the real picture of Melo's effort level on the defensive end.
Carmelo simply refuses to put any consistent effort on defense. It is the reason he is not close to a top ten player in the NBA. Hell I would debate Melo is a debatable top 20 player.
There is no doubt Melo has the ability to become a defensive force but he simply refuses unless LeBron is on the court. Howard and Chandler would not be able to stop the mid range shooters who would feast on Melo half assing a defensive rotation.
Carmelo simply refuses to put any consistent effort on defense. It is the reason he is not close to a top ten player in the NBA. Hell I would debate Melo is a debatable top 20 player.
There is no doubt Melo has the ability to become a defensive force but he simply refuses unless LeBron is on the court. Howard and Chandler would not be able to stop the mid range shooters who would feast on Melo half assing a defensive rotation.
Sure, when he's playing next to Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan he is. But when he was playing in Sacramento, Toronto, and Phoenix he was a 1.4 DWS player, which is worse than Carmelo's 2.5 career DWS average. Let me see if I can get this math right: before Garnett showed up Pierce averaged 3.3 DWS per year. Carmelo averages 2.5 DWS per year. In that case, the difference of 0.8 win shares warranted using the word "much" 20 times before the word better. So, I guess the 1.1 win share difference between Carmelo and Hedo without Dwight would require like 27 or 28 uses of the word much before the word better. Is that right?
Wait when Turk played less minutes he had less DWS a stat that is not adjusted for time on the court? HOLY CRAP.
Edit - Granted he sucked balls in Toronto, Turk actually put up good numbers defensively in Phoenix. His numbers in Sacramento were pretty good too. Better than Melo.
Edit - Granted he sucked balls in Toronto, Turk actually put up good numbers defensively in Phoenix. His numbers in Sacramento were pretty good too. Better than Melo.
Oh and JR Smith going to Knicks is reality?
With Billups down, what are the chances he does not end up with the Clippers?
With Billups down, what are the chances he does not end up with the Clippers?
Carmelo, not surprisingly, has seen his DWS improve this year with Tyson Chandler (and despite the fact he was playing through a series of injuries that also adversely impacted his offensive before he recently got hurt badly enough that he had to sit out).
In 22 games, he has .9 DWS. Extrapolated over an 82 game season, that's 3.35 DWS. To account for the sample size, extrapolated over 77 games, its 3.15--an improvement over his best defensive year when he played with a healthy Camby and Kenyon Martin (79 and 71 GP, respectively). Similarly, Amare's numbers are improving as well.
It seems easy to reason that playing with Chandler and Howard would improve Carmelo's defense by this selected metric.
In 22 games, he has .9 DWS. Extrapolated over an 82 game season, that's 3.35 DWS. To account for the sample size, extrapolated over 77 games, its 3.15--an improvement over his best defensive year when he played with a healthy Camby and Kenyon Martin (79 and 71 GP, respectively). Similarly, Amare's numbers are improving as well.
It seems easy to reason that playing with Chandler and Howard would improve Carmelo's defense by this selected metric.
Both teams are pushing for him hard, I'd also pick the Clippers if I were him, but he is a Jersey boy.
I agree with you. I'm just disappointed by your examples.
With all of the possibilities, I'm not sure why these two were included. They have nothing to do with his name, and would work for anyone who wanted to highlight a Chinese or Chinese-American player.
In addition, puns involving Nintendo and ninjas aren't that good, in my opinion, since the you'd have to go via some convoluted route to try to link Lin to anything Japanese. (For example, Lin, who was born in California, comes from a Taiwanese family. Taiwan used to be controlled by Japan.)
There's the potential for much more creativity here without needing to go with generic racial references or simply finding words that rhyme with Lin (too many).
Isn't this all a short lived Lin-fatuation anyway?
True, there are so many Chinese-American players lighting up the NBA right now, I can see how it would be a confusing headline.
How are DWS calculated? The basketball-reference DWS glossary was not super helpful in this regard, just referring me to Dean Oliver's defensive ratings. Is it tracking individual matchups, or is it just a composite based on team defensive performance while said player is on the court?
You know, I've heard the Super Lintendo pun for over a week and it never once occurred to me that it had anything to do with ethnicity, as opposed to him being able to jump and run like a moustachioed Italian plumber on a quest to save a princess.
Lin was getting toasted in the first half in Toronto tonight, turning the ball over repeatedly with Calderon using him like a turnstile. But he hung in, D'Antoni switched Shumpert onto Calderon and let Lin (attempt to) guard Barbosa, and NY pulled off another miracle comeback on the road, capped by a Lin 3 to win it with .5 left. Unbelievable, fuck a SI cover curse.