As if it's some monumental achievement for a baseball to win two out of three games. The A's have won two of three against the Rays. Does that mean anything?
How long will Chaim last?
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Within the context of the conversation, the point was we are 18 months removed from being a legit contender. not 5 years...and lots of people still want Bloom fired. So pretending that this fanbase would deal well with a 5 year tank just made me chuckle, that's all.
My problem will be if the same arguments are getting made in 2024. If 2024 looks like 2022 and 2023, then yeah, it won't be 5 years of sucking because they've been below average or average for a few years and had the ALCS run in 2021... but at the end of the day it is still 5 years that weren't spend truly contending. And I doubt that even the most optimistic Sox fan would expect that 2025-2030 will look like what 2017-2022 looked like for Houston.
See above, but we may well be looking at 5 years of not truly contending either way.
I think this is a rather good question. Sports are rule-bound competitive athletic events - certainly the revenue that enables professional sports is derived from their entertainment value, their watchability.
But I'm not sure it's quite the same thing as sports being entertainment. Baseball has its own (evolving) traditions, culture, and norms.
This will be my last comment in here because I do feel like I've exhausted my points, but yes...I agree. I said upthread that I believe 25-30 is the real window, but if we dont see real improvement in 2024 I'd be fine with Bloom getting fired. I think Bloom was given a very difficult situation to start with, and unless there is complete malpractice on the major & minor league level he deserves some run to see his/ownerships plan to come to fruition.
Honestly this would be a good idea for a new thread (would you sign up for a full on 5+ year tank job if it meant prolonged success for your favorite team(s)
I would also sign up for such a tank job..
But this thread, shows that many would not,
would the Boston media sign up for such a tank job? WEEI and 98.5, would have a nuclear level meltdown if such a full on tank job was attempted by any BOS sports team....
Totally fair on all points. Is it fair to say that some time in 2024 is your cutoff point, given your statements that he deserves some run, and that we need to see real improvement in 2024? Do you have a date in mind for 2024? If they're .500 on Memorial Day is that too early? (Or does it depend on how they are playing, etc.). Just wondering what your threshold / definition is for "real improvement".
Start the thread! (With a poll)
I 100% do not believe for an instant that the fans here that claim they'd be okay with a "tank job" on the level of the O's, Astros, etc... would honestly be okay with it. It's easy to say when we're in the middle of a frustrating middling sloppy team that is at the tail end of what everyone thinks is "contending" but the misery of friends down here that were Astros fans during that stretch really makes me doubt any "yeah, I'd be fine with tanking" bullshit.
And even if you had a guarantee that the Sox would come out of a 5 year "tank-job" as a perennial contender for the following 5-7 years but no guarantee on a WS victory? Nope.
Here's your actual choice--- Tank for 5 years and hope that it pays off long term with a better structured system. or. Try to contend for 5 years and hopefully somethings go right (2021) for a few years and then be able to contend long term with a better structured system.
There's no guarantees. Houston flopped on one of it's top picks. What if Correa flopped too? Springer?
And even if you had a guarantee that the Sox would come out of a 5 year "tank-job" as a perennial contender for the following 5-7 years but no guarantee on a WS victory? Nope.
Here's your actual choice--- Tank for 5 years and hope that it pays off long term with a better structured system. or. Try to contend for 5 years and hopefully somethings go right (2021) for a few years and then be able to contend long term with a better structured system.
There's no guarantees. Houston flopped on one of it's top picks. What if Correa flopped too? Springer?
The Celtics have tanked more than once, fairly brazenly, and everyone was totally on board with it.
And no, I would not sign up for a full on tank job, assuming that means zero attempt to field a contending team. They don't need to. For one thing, the MLB draft is much different. In the NBA, the right player can, by himself, radically later your team. Not so in baseball.
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I think we also tend to equate criticism of Chaim with wanting him fired and I don't think that applies to everyone. I, for instance, am a bit disappointed by the MLB product but I recognize that he has done some nice things and the farm is clearly in better shape now than when he started. However, I also think that the current product on the field is a bit lacking (others may disagree) because I hate the style of play, plodding base running, poor defense, etc. They're also middle-of-the-pack with respect to HR hitting so if you come to the park to see dingers, they're not really delivering on that either.
Ultimately, I believe that firing Chaim now would be a mistake while also recognizing that this 2023 offseason is a big one for him. If he lands and impact arm or two (Yamamato, please) and you have Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, Drohan knocking on the door with guys like Blaze, Bleis (hurt now, I know), Meidroth, Romero, Anthony as deep development guys along with a productive 2023 draft class, then we could be looking at a much different picture a year from now. However, on field results matter so if they're still scuffling a year from now, then I think you have to consider the possibility of bringing someone else in. In college football, it doesn't matter if you're bringing in great recruiting classes if you're not converting those to wins. At some point, Chaim needs to convert his development process to wins. If he doesn't within the next 12-14 months, I think he's gone. But I also think Cora might be gone before that as an intermediate step.
There is no possible way a 5 year tank flies in Boston given how insane the ticket prices are.
What do you mean by this? People would stop going. Are you saying the owners would not buy off?
Baseball, and all sports, are entertainment. You might not believe that it is, but it is. It's a diversion for 99.999999% of the world population. It's only a business if you play for, work for or own one of the 120+ North American franchises. If every club in the country closed down tomorrow, it wouldn't make a difference.
Remember 2020 when leagues went months without playing? It was fine. A little boring, but fine. No one died because the White Sox couldn't play the Twins for the 18th time that season. The World Series wasn't held in 1994 and we all moved along with our lives. That is the definition of entertainment.
I’m saying Boston isn’t a market where you try to lose. It doesn’t fly with the fans or ownership given the rich history of the team and the fact that the owners will take a bath when attendance drops even farther.
The Celts have done it twice in the last 25 years, no?
Edit: and Philly is such a market?
Edit 2: and we're coming up on 5 years of not truly contending anyway
Teams have tried, absolutely, but take the Sixers for example. Hinkie was there 2013-2016. Pulling up the 2014-2015 attendance, the Sixers were dead last in the NBA. Online it was a popular move to tank, but nobody wanted to pay to watch it.
And Fenway attendance would be on average 15-20K a night, agreed. Does that matter?
Sure, but that's not exactly what I meant.
Entertainment, in its pure form, exists merely to delight an audience. Sports-Entertainment might be something like wrestling, where the results are pre-scripted because audience engagement/titillation/delight is the main goal, and there need be no integrity to the sport, or long term caretakership.
Sports themselves are something a bit different. Some sports, like MLB, are monetized by selling access to them, and in no small part because people find them enjoyable on many levels. But it's not only and always about being entertained.
They made the ALCS in 2021 so how is that not contending?
I’d like to think we’re above Philly.
Then what's it about (bolded)?
No matter what any writer of the last 120 years says, at the end of the day baseball is a game. Games are played and watched in order to entertain people. How is baseball more than entertainment? And if it is, what is it?
Baseball is no different than a movie or a TV show or a concert.
That team - realistically - did not have a legit chance at a title. It’s like saying the 2014 Colts were a contender.
I’d like to think we’re above Philly too. I’m not sure we are.
Nothing that has happened has changed my opinion in post 5 of this thread, since the season has gone basically as expected. Ownership is not into five-year rebuilds. Chaim gets a pass for this year but if they aren't competitive (i.e in real WC/Division contention; not what we've seen so far this year) in August 2024 that's when he's gone.
Consumers will come NickEsasky. They'll log onto MLBTV.com for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up on Twitter not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at their screens as innocent as moviegoers, longing for the entertainmentz.I love your books, Terence Mann
Well, Friedman went from TB to the Dodgers. So, you can buy those guys. Or - yes, identify the next great GM, as they did with Epstein. Either way, it's on the organization to identify and or attract the best talent - at every level. Can't just shrug your shoulders and say, "it's hard." And this ownership (yes I am VERY GRATEFUL) somehow managed to chase Theo out of town - disrupted whatever security there was there. And it's been a manic-depressive swing through approaches since.
A story about attendance. I have been buying tickets off seatgeek - and got a call from a Red Sox Season Ticket Holder salesperson. She walked me and the person I bought a 10 game package through the stadium - what was shocking is what was available. 2 rows from the field down the third base side to the left of the dugout (I bought the first row in the grandstand to be clear). She said these seats would not have been available 2 years ago - and they negotiated on price.
I am sure Henry is well aware that the days of guaranteed sell-outs are over.
I wonder if Henry has the tolerance for a 2 year rebuild. I have always believed he is a finance guy. I suspect he looks at the payroll numbers and sees the Rays at 49-22 with the 27th payroll in baseball and sees enormous operational efficiency. It is also true that the 3 of the 4 highest teams in payroll at this moment are not above .500. So Henry brought Bloom in for a solid reason - but I have to believe there are doubts about Bloom's ability to execute.
But I DO think people underestimate the degree to which the Rays (and to a lesser extent Atlanta and Houston) are changing how ownership thinks. The Boston media in particular are in pretty significant denial about this.
Take a step back. One the Red Sox roster are 3 young controllable starters - two of whom look like top of the rotation guys. It has been a decade since the Red Sox had that. So there is some progress - but I wonder if it is enough. If the Sox are under .500 at the end of the year I wonder if Bloom survives. Because I have to believe Henry worries about the Red Sox brand.
I am sure Henry is well aware that the days of guaranteed sell-outs are over.
I wonder if Henry has the tolerance for a 2 year rebuild. I have always believed he is a finance guy. I suspect he looks at the payroll numbers and sees the Rays at 49-22 with the 27th payroll in baseball and sees enormous operational efficiency. It is also true that the 3 of the 4 highest teams in payroll at this moment are not above .500. So Henry brought Bloom in for a solid reason - but I have to believe there are doubts about Bloom's ability to execute.
But I DO think people underestimate the degree to which the Rays (and to a lesser extent Atlanta and Houston) are changing how ownership thinks. The Boston media in particular are in pretty significant denial about this.
Take a step back. One the Red Sox roster are 3 young controllable starters - two of whom look like top of the rotation guys. It has been a decade since the Red Sox had that. So there is some progress - but I wonder if it is enough. If the Sox are under .500 at the end of the year I wonder if Bloom survives. Because I have to believe Henry worries about the Red Sox brand.
This is a very interesting question and I respect both posters a lot. It might be a slightly semantic argument. Though I do think there is a distinction between something being entertaining and being entertainment (depending on how we define the terms of course). If we think of the performing arts as being literal "entertainment", then that suggests that there's a fully contrived element to "entertainment" - events and performances that are constructed and planned ahead of time with pretty much a known outcome (the end of the movie, play, or concert). That is they are fictional, in a sense. Sporting events do not have a preplanned outcome (at least we hope). Live competition seems somewhat different than a performance, and while any game is a construct, the competition within the game is not fictional. That's why Professional Wrestling is entertainment per se, while real wrestling is not (though perhaps entertaining).
All elected spectatorship is certainly LEISURE or RECREATION, and hopefully entertaining, but maybe not literal "entertainment" My thoughts FWIW, as someone in the entertainment biz.
This is completely reasonable and I think there is truth to what both JMOH and RR are saying. I just view it via my own personal lens now. When I was in college and my early 20s I watched the majority of Red Sox games every season for Bette for worse because I had the time and also because I was a die hard. Today at 44 with a 5 year old and 2.5 year old plus a wife who I watch shows with my free time is limited. So if I’m going to commit what little free time I have to watch sports they better damn well be worth my time to watch or I will find something else that is. They don’t need to win every game obviously, but they need to be worth it to turn on from an entertainment perspective. Watching a team that can’t score and kicks the ball around in the field often really doesn’t rate my time very often. I still love the team and read and keep up, but they may not get my eyeballs or $ for tickets. If there are enough people like me, it’ll definitely affect Henry’s bottom line.
Count me as one who would sign up for a tank job. While it doesn't always work, a multiple year tanking job still has the best odds of building a championship contender.
Owners generally like tanking because although ticket revenue goes down, so is payroll slashed and I suspect the Os were making a profit even while they were tanking.
As far as the media goes, I think that can be handled so long as the objectives are laid out clearly and in advance. When the media repeatedly hears, "This is the best way to try to win the next championship," it's hard for them to argue with that assertion. And if the team can get the media to repeat that, it helps with the fans too IMO.
You can add Bradley Blalock too. Would probably be in Portland by now if not for TJ surgery. He's a 32nd rounder. Gotta root for him.
View: https://i.imgur.com/u0ELzRd.mp4
There's a lot in the lower minors. Just nothing imminent unfortunately.
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Updating this:
Martinez - .257/.300/.590 | 0.8 bWAR
Turner - .278/.356/.451 | 1.3 bWAR
Not gonna root against JDM but he’s got some alarming peripherals this year, including an escalating chase rate and the second-highest swinging strike rate in baseball. Looks like he’s swinging harder, or selling out for power (certainly much more complicated that that).
Curious to see how their lines end up but Turner really does seem like the far better bet for this year, and especially so factoring defense.
Turner as 1B: +3 DRS, +2 OAA in 135 innings
Turner as 3B: -1 DRS, -1 OAA in 40 innings
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Which emphasizes the importance of not jumping to conclusions one third of the way through the season, something we at SoSH are much to prone to.
Heck SOSH jumps to extremes after eight-game stretches in either direction. The starting pitching has been really solid lately and when the offense heats up again they will win games and the narratives will shift. It's a long season.
If he doesn’t have a good backup pan for a starting pitcher getting hit in the face with a line drive, i don’t know how anyone could defend him.
Clearly the guy has no direction, how could he not see that coming? In all seriousness, a cut and a bruise? How amazingly lucky he was. I know a lot of folks say the team is no fun to watch, but I am thoroughly enjoying the development of the 4 guys in the rotation after Paxton (and seeing him be Paxton is fun too). Offenses slump, it happens but let's at least give them the next 6 weeks to see what happens. Don't worry about how many teams are ahead of them in the WC standings. Just win games hunt down Toronto and suddenly they are in the thick of it.
It was bad, but I didn't think a pan was necessary. A towel seemed to do the trick.
It is a long season, and we've seen JD fade in the second half the past couple of years, so the comp should keep on getting better for Turner as the year progresses. Even more importantly, though, is Turner's defensive versatility. If the Sox had kept JD instead, they'd lose a bench spot, because they'd have to keep a backup 1B/3B on the roster.
The rotation has been an absolute joy to watch since mid-May. With Drohan in the wings, we could be looking at an entirely home-grown rotation next year. When's the last time that's happened?
Agree 100% It has been stated (I think in the tanking thread) that it is REALLY hard to build a contender with no pre-arb talent. Well, that talent is here (and helping) and more is on the way hopefully. That's why I am not upset about this season, every night there is something to watch and be excited about in the future. Let's get Story back, Schreiber also and win more games and see where they are at the deadline. I'm sure there will still be a big "they aren't a title contender" crowd, but as 2021 showed, sometimes Parcells is right, just get into the tournament.
1987: The five pitchers with the most starts were Clemens, Hurst, Nipper, Stanley and Sellers
Would be nice but I’d still really like to spend on Yamamoto, Ohtani or Urias and possibly Manaea (on a value one year deal/team option). I like Houck but really have to squint to see him making it as a starter (Whitlock however I think if he can make it healthy through the season is a top rotation guy).
They went into 2023 without a championship caliber 2B/SS/CF and Catcher. Mookie Betts has played 3 of those 4 positions this year.
This is not a well constructed roster, it has some great pieces but it's incomplete.
What's wrong with our catchers? What's wrong with Duvall? What's wrong (from a pre-season standpoint) with Kiké in the middle infield? Like I'll grant you the other MI spot sure, but do you think you need a 4 WAR guy at every position to be "championship calibre"?
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