I like your theory, but if clay is throwing in Oct then giving up a few runs shouldn't matter.
How Good Are The Sox Now?
- Thread starter Rasputin
- Start date
The fun thing about the Sox right now, in my opinion, is that for the first time all season I can really start to see not only that they can make a deep playoff run, but how it might actually happen. I'm certainly not predicting dominance or anything, but a great offense combined with a starting rotation that's starting to whip itself into shape and just enough key bullpen pieces (assuming Koji's strong return isn't a mirage) to get by is a formula you can win with. The problem is that it all seems kind of fragile, in that we don't know how Pomeranz will hold up, if Price maintains his ace-like run, if E-Rod is actually getting it together, if Ziegler/Koji really are capable of being the 8th-inning guys, etc., but you can at least see pretty clearly how formidable this team can be against anybody if things break right. I'm not sure I could have said that at the beginning of the season when they were relying on Wright's out-of-nowhere run and an unsustainably dominant offense -- but they are legitimately starting to look more well-rounded to me.
This would worry me more if we could point to any of the other AL contenders whose fans aren't saying exactly the same thing.
I think CLE is probably the team that i'd feel best about. Best starting staff, two brutal late inning relivers.
Shame they lost Brantley, he really is the missing piece for them. They'd be double digits ahead of the central with him.
I think it's really rather remarkable that with less than 20 games left in the season, we can't really say how good this team is with any kind of specificity. I think we'd all agree that it's a pretty good team, but beyond that, is there anything we can say with confidence?
At every single point this season--with the exception of this last couple weeks--there has been a part of the team that has been going very very bad. At the start of the season, it was the rotation. At other times, some injuries and slumps made the offense look awful, and the bullpen went to shit in a hurry.
But now, for the most part, the rotation has stabilized. The four guys who would be a playoff rotation are going out and pitching well. The offense is scoring runs in bunches. The bullpen is doing well pitching two, maybe three innings a game most games, well enough that the rest of the guys can get some rest.
This is not 2013. This is not 2007. This is just a pretty good team that has managed to overcome it's own failings and emerge as one of the better teams in the league.
This team has a decent chance of winning the division. It's got a chance to miss the playoffs entirely though that would take some doing.
Considering how utterly shitty the past two seasons have been, I'm glad we're here.
At every single point this season--with the exception of this last couple weeks--there has been a part of the team that has been going very very bad. At the start of the season, it was the rotation. At other times, some injuries and slumps made the offense look awful, and the bullpen went to shit in a hurry.
But now, for the most part, the rotation has stabilized. The four guys who would be a playoff rotation are going out and pitching well. The offense is scoring runs in bunches. The bullpen is doing well pitching two, maybe three innings a game most games, well enough that the rest of the guys can get some rest.
This is not 2013. This is not 2007. This is just a pretty good team that has managed to overcome it's own failings and emerge as one of the better teams in the league.
This team has a decent chance of winning the division. It's got a chance to miss the playoffs entirely though that would take some doing.
Considering how utterly shitty the past two seasons have been, I'm glad we're here.
The Sox went over 800 runs scored for the season last night, far and away the top number in MLB. They are 36 runs ahead of the second place team (Rockies) and a staggering 89 runs above the third best team (Cubs). They are on pace to score 908 runs, a number they have only topped 4 other times in the last half century.
I think we are not appreciating how remarkable this offense is.
I think we are not appreciating how remarkable this offense is.
In terms of pitching, since the all-star break they are #1 in the AL in ERA, OBP, BA allowed, HR allowed, and WHIP.
It is very difficult to make the argument that they are not the team to beat in the AL.
It is very difficult to make the argument that they are not the team to beat in the AL.
And now Salazar is out.
http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2016/09/cleveland_indians_danny_salaza_13.html
That would really be a "cool" World Series.
I wonder what the Cardinals fans would do.
While amazing, offense is up as a whole this year. We were also spoiled with the 03-05 teams scoring 900+. Also, context wise, I think the 2013 offense was better.
Looks like Salazar is done for at least the regular season. Their last 3 times through the rotation (including Salazar) they averaged game scores of 46.6, 56.2 and 58.6 (compared to Boston's 56.3, 64.6 and 50.4) but replace Salazar with Tomlin and that's bound to drop. They've already had to add Clevinger to the back end to mixed results and Bauer threw a stinker his last time up...
I'm liking the chances of catching Cleveland for the 2nd seed and home field advantage in the division round. They're also our most likely ALDS opponent and seem to be a pretty good matchup (though I prefer their manager!)
Edit: should note that avg game scores are listed most recent to longest ago and the BoSox latest one is the avg of the last 4 starters since they skipped Pomeranz last time through. Hopefully he can hold up the avg with a good start tonight.
The Sox right now are scoring more than two-thirds of a run per game (0.69) more than any other team in the AL. The difference between them and the second-place team is greater than the difference between the second-place team and the eleventh-place team. Let that one sink in for a moment.
I'd say I want texas but they can at least somewhat hit with the sox (despite the sox obvious pitching advantage).
Texas is my preferred option.
Frauds considering their terrible run differential for a team with their record. You're gonna have to beat CLE at some point though IMO.
People keep pointing to TEX's run differential and calling them weak, but 1) they are a somewhat different team now with Darvish/Lucroy/Beltran and 2) check out their record against above .500 teams, an amazing 55-28. None of the other AL teams are anywhere near this, TOR is second at 46-35, BOS is 38-35.
This is partly true, but they are 24-15 since August 1 with a run differential of 196-183, which translates to a pythag of 21-18. So it may still be somewhat smoke and mirrors
The Good: Well-rounded offense, not reliant on home runs or scratch runs
The Bad: Kimbrel. There's a volume of history that includes Foulke, Uehara and Papelbon being critical to playoff victories, but a guy who yanks balls 4 feet to the left every 3 pitches doesn't provide that confidence. (Remember what it was like to know that, no matter what, Koji was never going to walk a guy in the ninth?)
The Ugly: Along that same vein, the bullpen. Yes, they've been pitching better, probably as a function of starters going longer. Still, there's not a ton of confidence in locking down the final 3 innings for this team...and long relief is league average, at best. For the Red Sox to advance far - Robbie Ross, Brad Ziegler and Kimbrel need to be light's out, otherwise the team is too much like the former Tigers. Wouldn't it be something of Koji and Tazawa came on...
But all in all, this offense (and fielding) can cover a lot of weaknesses - mostly because it's so multi-dimensional. Cold weather and ace pitching is not going to dry up run scoring like it will with some other teams.
The Bad: Kimbrel. There's a volume of history that includes Foulke, Uehara and Papelbon being critical to playoff victories, but a guy who yanks balls 4 feet to the left every 3 pitches doesn't provide that confidence. (Remember what it was like to know that, no matter what, Koji was never going to walk a guy in the ninth?)
The Ugly: Along that same vein, the bullpen. Yes, they've been pitching better, probably as a function of starters going longer. Still, there's not a ton of confidence in locking down the final 3 innings for this team...and long relief is league average, at best. For the Red Sox to advance far - Robbie Ross, Brad Ziegler and Kimbrel need to be light's out, otherwise the team is too much like the former Tigers. Wouldn't it be something of Koji and Tazawa came on...
But all in all, this offense (and fielding) can cover a lot of weaknesses - mostly because it's so multi-dimensional. Cold weather and ace pitching is not going to dry up run scoring like it will with some other teams.
Question: does Buchholz' lack of a split make him a better bullpen arm for the playoffs? He's been a bit worse against lefties this year but career wise he has very little split, compared to Pomeranz (+.180 OPS) or Rodriguez (+.100 OPS reverse split).
Rangers' 2nd half numbers:
99/98/96 (ERA-,FIP-,xFIP-)
14th in the majors with 5.5 fWAR
.259/.324/.448 good for a 101 wRC+
10th in the majors with 7.1 fWAR
Can't split the fielding numbers, but for the season they're at -0.2 runs saved by UZR.
Their second half wRC+ and ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- are each a few points better than their total season numbers. They have been playing better, but better in this case looks more like slightly above average instead of slightly below average.
Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are as formidable a top of the rotation as any, but it doesn't look like they have much behind them. They have a couple of excellent players in Beltre and Lucroy, but a lineup featuring them as the two best hitters doesn't exactly strike fear into my heart.
Even with the additions of Darvish, Lucroy, and Beltran this team still looks like it's not much better than the rest of the mostly mediocre American League. Better than the Orioles probably, but better than the Jays? I'd hate to get into a 5 game series with them throwing Hamels and Darvish, but a 7 game series seems like a winnable match up for the Sox.
99/98/96 (ERA-,FIP-,xFIP-)
14th in the majors with 5.5 fWAR
.259/.324/.448 good for a 101 wRC+
10th in the majors with 7.1 fWAR
Can't split the fielding numbers, but for the season they're at -0.2 runs saved by UZR.
Their second half wRC+ and ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- are each a few points better than their total season numbers. They have been playing better, but better in this case looks more like slightly above average instead of slightly below average.
Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are as formidable a top of the rotation as any, but it doesn't look like they have much behind them. They have a couple of excellent players in Beltre and Lucroy, but a lineup featuring them as the two best hitters doesn't exactly strike fear into my heart.
Even with the additions of Darvish, Lucroy, and Beltran this team still looks like it's not much better than the rest of the mostly mediocre American League. Better than the Orioles probably, but better than the Jays? I'd hate to get into a 5 game series with them throwing Hamels and Darvish, but a 7 game series seems like a winnable match up for the Sox.
Texas would be especially scary in a 5 game series with homefield advantage. The Sox haven't played well down there in recent years...this year was no different.
That said, I agree about a 7 gamer with their lack of pitching depth. They haven't been anything resembling a juggernaut since the trade deadline. They've probably played like a slightly above .500 team. They are paper tigers to me...but in a playoff series anything can happen.
If I had to guess, I'd say yes.
9 Position Players
DH Ortiz
C Leon
1B Ramirez
2B Pedroia
3B Shaw
SS Bogaerts
LF Young
CF Bradley
RF Betts
5 Bench
C Holaday/Hanigan/Vazquez
IF/OF Holt
OF Benintendi
IF Hill
UT Hernandez/Moncada?
4 SP
Price
Porcello
Pomeranz
Rodriguez
7 RP
Kimbrel R
Koji R
Ziegler R
Barnes R
Abad L
Ross L
?
That last pen spot could go to Buchholz or Kelly or Hembree; I can see arguments for any of them, but I think I take Buchholz, in case a starter goes short. In 2013, Farrell chose 11 pitchers and 14 position players, but he could also choose an 8 man pen with two of the three, and the Hernandez/Moncada spot left off.
First off it would seem likely that the only way we get Texas in the ALDS would be if we take the wild card route - not saying that Cle can't catch them, but Texas has a pretty easy schedule remaining (6 x Oak, 3 x LAA, 3x Mil and 3 x TBR after Wednesday - by far the easiest of any of the contenders) and they just got Colby Lewis back to join Darvish and Hamels. With Martin Perez that's a pretty strong playoff rotation. I wouldn't want them and I don't think we'll get them until the ALCS (touch wood).
Secondly, they've scored 6.3 rpg over the last 3 weeks - the exact same as the Sox in that time period. By comparison, the other offensive powers (CLE, TOR and BAL) have averaged 4.5, 5.1 and 5.1 in that span. Seems like their offense is clicking pretty well.
And lastly I wouldn't call a 3 game differential from pythag in a span of 39 games 'smoke and mirrors' - just normal deviation. Yes, they were 7-3 in one-run games, but that's going to happen (maybe not to us this year but generally that's not too unusual). What was absurd was that they were 25-7 in 1-run games before that!
The Red Sox have a team OPS+ of 112. Then there's Seattle at 107, the Cubs and Tigers at 106, and St. Louis at 104. There are only 4 other teams with an OPS+ above 100.
The 2013 Red Sox had a team OPS+ of 117 with 3 teams behind them at 110. The 2007 club was at 107 with Detroit at 108 and the Yankees at 116. The 2004 Sox had an OPS+ of 110 with Cleveland and the Yankees ahead of them at 111. 2003's team was at 118 with the Yankees at 114 and the Braves at 112.
So this team, when compared with the three championship teams and the 2003 club ranks right in the middle for offense relative to league.
You can debate whether he should, but Farrell just switched up the rotation to get him the last start in Toronto. I think he's in JF's good graces, or at least he was as of Sunday morning. So if the spot is him versus Hembree or Kelly, two guys who have spent much of the year in Pawtucket... well, it won't be Hembree. Kelly maybe.
Buchholz seems like a lock at this point. Even if he shits himself the rest of the way I think he still makes it simply because he's more versatile than Kelly or Hembree. I wonder if Kelly may have a chance to supplant Barnes depending what happpens moving forward. In Kelly's last 13 relief appearances in Pawtucket he allowed just 1 run in 16 innings with 25 Ks and 2 walks. There's an intriguing upside there. With still 19 games left, I think the Sox will give Kelly a chance to show what he can do in the 7th or possibly the 8th, depending on game situation and/or if Koji is unavailable.
With Barnes we already know who he is. He hasn't been effective in high-lev situations. In '16 he's been primarily used in medium and low-lev according to B-Ref. 24 medium-lev appearances, 16 low-lev, and just 13 high-lev. His full high-lev stat line has been posted here previously but I couldn't find it on FanGraphs or B-Ref.
simple stat VS. 2013 team - yes the 2013 Sox had a slightly better OPS+ advantage over the second best team but let's remember that the inability to stay away from the K's almost lost them the series to Detroit as the lesser players who were high strikeout guys were overwhelmed by Detroit's very strong starting pitching.
2013 team struck out 23.1% of AB's (27th out of 30 teams) while 2016 has struck out in 20.6% of AB's (8th of 30 teams)
2013 team struck out 23.1% of AB's (27th out of 30 teams) while 2016 has struck out in 20.6% of AB's (8th of 30 teams)
And with the 2013 team, that was mainly two guys; Napoli (187 K's) and Salty (139K's). JBJ leads the Sox this year with 129, but he has more AB's than Salty did. Nobody else is close.
I've got Texas at 59-30; I think your numbers don't include their NL games, but you're point remains. And they've won their season series with all but three >.500 teams they've played, those three being the Red Sox (3-3), Blue Jays (3-4) and Cubs (1-2). They collectively crushed the top of the AL Central, going 15-5 against Cleveland, Detroit and KC. They've gone 14-13 against the top 4 of the AL East, and swept 3 against St. Louis. Most of their damage has been done against their top division rivals: 14-3 vs. Houston and 12-7 vs. Seattle; strangely just 8-8 and 7-6 against the Angels and A's respectively.
The negligible run differential, the record in one-run games, the record against top teams... I'm not a stats guy but it doesn't seem to add up. I'd rather the Sox not have to play them and find out what's behind it all.
Also this team is scoring 22.5% above the league average so far this year 5.61rpg vs 4.58) That is a better ratio than either 2013 (when run-scoring was down for the AL: 5.27 vs 4.33 -> +21.7%) or 2003 (when scoring was higher: 5.93 vs 4.86 -> +22.0%). In fact, they haven't had a higher ratio since that jaw-dropping 1950 season when all BoSox offensive records were set/shattered.
Exactly. I doubt there is a single team out there who is wringing their hands in anticipation of that match up.
Using PA, the 2016 team has struck out 18.6% of the time, and the 2013 team struck out in 20.5% of PA.
This team just can't take advantage of the chances to pull away. Could have gone up 3 tonight on the division. Great pitching and the bats go to sleep. Feels like it's been that way for 2 months now. Starters pitch great and the pen blows it. Hitters are awesome and the starters blow. Entire pitching staff rocks and the bats go to sleep for a night or two. So many chances and they are just not getting over the hump to maybe pull away with it. Overall playing well but not grabbing the bull by the horns.
Their at bats in the 8th and 9th were absominable.
Only Mookie finished his at bat swinging at a strike.
Gausman was historically terrible on the road this year; hell, he's been terrible on the road his entire career. The Sox made him look like Koufax tonight. Completely unacceptable.
You have to wonder if the pressure of the race is getting to the young players; most of them have never been in this situation before, and they all look like they're trying to hit 6 run homers every AB. And maybe that's why the team has such a bad record in 1-run games: they simply can't bear down enough to put quality ABs together late and close because they're trying to win the games singlehandedly.
They better figure something out soon.
The Sox didnt "make" him look like anything. He pitched 8 excellent innings. He was throwing 98 on his final pitches. He was ahead of everyone. He had tremendous command and was hitting his spots. Making the other team look bad is something a great performance does.
It was a pitcher's duel between two teams in the hunt.
Also he's been rough on the road but a 4.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP aint historically anything.
It was a pitcher's duel between two teams in the hunt.
Also he's been rough on the road but a 4.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP aint historically anything.
Gausman is a 25 year old former #4 overall pick who may have broken through in recent weeks. He's now given up 3 ERs total in his last five starts, against WSN/NYY/NYY/DET and now BOS, he looked awesome in the late innings tonight as has been said.
while Gausman gets most of the credit for tonight, I think SJH's words have some truth to them, in regards to a sample size of multiple close & late games.
Mookie especially lately has been popping up pitches he should be line driving.
Mookie especially lately has been popping up pitches he should be line driving.
Well, he wasn't terrible last night. He was the exact opposite. No matter the Sox record in one run games, that kid was dealing last night.
You couldn't have possibly watched an inning last night right? 99MPH on the 120th pitch and painting high 90s with a splitter and slider as well is not the repertoire of someone you would expect to be terrible. Perhaps it took a 25YO pitcher a couple years to harness his stuff.
If we are going to use SSS to call someone historically terrible then can we also use a SSS and say in his last 8 starts BEFORE last night he had given up 4 ER once, 3 ER once, 2 ER 3 X and 0 ER 3X while averaging about 6 IP per start.
Orioles might suddenly have enough starting pitching (combined with their offense and bullpen) to make them a pretty damned dangerous team in the playoffs (5 game set especially).
Yeah, Gausman is probably a leading Cy Young candidate next season. I'm not terribly concerned about the Sox in yesterday's game.
Which is ironic cause mookie was the only one who went down swinging at a pitch in the strike zone.
Hanley and Pedroia's at bats were especially egregious.
Of course I watched the game. You could play the Anvil Chorus to all the pitches these guys popped up last night. Christ.
What's Gausman's exuse for being so shitty on the road his entire career up to this point? Was all he needed was to face the Sox to figure things out? Of course not.
Still no excuses. In his career Gausman entered last night's game 6-21 with an ERA pushing 5.00 in his road starts; this year he was 1-9 with an ERA of over 4 and a half in his road starts. He has been a horrible pitcher on the road forever. For the Sox to get only 4 hits and muster absolutely noting of note against this guy is maddening; it hearkens back to that awful Kyle Gibson start at Fenway earlier this summer where they again made mediocrity seem great. If they had gotten stuffed by, say, Felix Hernandez I'd be fine with it. Against Gausman? No way.
This inconsistency is what's going to prevent them from going where they want to be this year, methinks. They're simply not able to put together long stretches of good baseball without stepping on their dicks in some way. I mean, they just came back from a 6-3 road trip where they seemed to take control of the division, and they go home and promptly drop 2 of 3 to one of their chief rivals despite getting 2 excellent pitching performances. It's absolutely maddening. There's their chance to seize control of the division and they blew it.
They're just not ready yet. Too inconsistent.