How Good Are The Sox Now?

[grimshaw]

If we assume the Red Sox have a 6 man bullpen at most in the playoffs, it could look like this. A 4th starter may not be needed with the off days.

Wright, Pomeranz or Rodriguez. I think Drew has the edge for the rotation spot right now.
Clay
Ziegler
Ross
Kimbrel
Barnes

I'll take my chances with that along with the offense.
If they go with an 11 man staff, you could squeeze in Hembree as a ROOGY with the other 4 guys as starters. If Pomeranz is rested and Wright craps the bed the rest of the way, you could keep Wright in the pen and Drew in the rotation.

It's also possible Rodriguez doesn't see meaningful post season innings with his command so inconsistent. Someone could emerge in September too that knocks out one of the above.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If we assume the Red Sox have a 6 man bullpen at most in the playoffs, it could look like this.

Pomeranz or Rodriguez
Clay
Ziegler
Ross
Kimbrel
Barnes

I'll take my chances with that along with the offense.
If they go with an 11 man staff, you could squeeze in Hembree as a ROOGY with the other 4 guys as starters.

No reason to think it won't be a seven man pen (11 man staff) since a seven man pen is what they're used to working with all season.

Their regular 4-man bench configuration should be good enough to get them through any series, to the point that the 5th bench player probably won't see all that much time anyway. Adding a sixth might be overkill (e.g. Youkilis was the sixth bench player on the 2004 WS roster...he didn't play an inning). I'd think someone like Hembree, Kelly or Koji (if healthy) would be of more use than Bryce Brentz or someone of that ilk.

 

[tims4wins]

A 4th starter will definitely be needed based on the schedules:

The division series goes game 1 (#1 starter), game 2 (#2), off day, game 3 (#3), game 4 (#4), off day, game 5 (#1). Could only get away with 3 starters if you use your first starter on 3 days rest.

The ALCS and WS go game 1 (#1), game 2 (#2), off day, game 3 (#3), game 4 (#4), game 5 (#1 on 4 days rest), game 6 (#2), game 7 (#3).

 

[bosockboy]

A 4th starter will definitely be needed based on the schedules:

The division series goes game 1 (#1 starter), game 2 (#2), off day, game 3 (#3), game 4 (#4), off day, game 5 (#1). Could only get away with 3 starters if you use your first starter on 3 days rest.

The ALCS and WS go game 1 (#1), game 2 (#2), off day, game 3 (#3), game 4 (#4), game 5 (#1 on 4 days rest), game 6 (#2), game 7 (#3).

Yes 4 is always needed unless there is a scheduling fluke, which you can't really count on. This is why every October there is the time-honored discussion of aces going on three days rest.

 

[grimshaw]

No reason to think it won't be a seven man pen (11 man staff) since a seven man pen is what they're used to working with all season.

Their regular 4-man bench configuration should be good enough to get them through any series, to the point that the 5th bench player probably won't see all that much time anyway. Adding a sixth might be overkill (e.g. Youkilis was the sixth bench player on the 2004 WS roster...he didn't play an inning). I'd think someone like Hembree, Kelly or Koji (if healthy) would be of more use than Bryce Brentz or someone of that ilk.

Forgot about Koji - that definitely helps. I don't think Brentz has any use at all with Chris Young healthy even if they have the extra bench guy.

My guess is Holt, Vazquez, Young, Hernandez (or Marrero since JF seems to hate Marco) and Hill.
Back up catcher is probably up for grabs in September. I don't think Hanigan is even needed to catch Wright since Leon does fine.

I believe they have done a 10 man staff once before duringTito's era, but you're probably right they'd go 11.

 

[gedman211]

Decent pitcher tomorrow, but then:

Action Edwin Jackson
Paul Clemens(no relation)
Jared Cosart

in sunny San Diego...perfect West Coast trip is a real possibility

 

[dcmissle]

This is likely a put-up-or-shut-up series, especially in light of more than a few painful losses.

Yes, "they get paid too." But THEY are not sniffing post-season play.

 

[Rasputin]

Take the very best team in baseball and have them play against the very worst team in baseball. The best team will not always win. The Red Sox are not the best team. The Padres are not the worst team.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

^ No, but they're barely over .500 against last place teams overall. It's the sign of a young & inconsistent team loaded with talent - exactly what we are.

 

[dhappy42]

True, but to win the division the Sox need to win at least 14-15 more games of their remaining 25. The 6 games in Oakland and San Diego should have been the easiest.

 

[grimshaw]

They really need to take the next two. Going 12-11 vs the division isn't a lock since the Yanks and Rays aren't rolling over.

Something like below gets them to 90 wins, but that also assumes they win tomorrow and Wed.
2-1 TB
3-4 Balt
4-3 NY
3-3 Tor

^ No, but they're barely over .500 against last place teams overall. It's the sign of a young & inconsistent team loaded with talent - exactly what we are.

It's frustrating when they lose games to crappy teams, especially by a run, but they are doing exactly what they should be doing against poor teams. They are 28-16 vs last place teams that includes 7-3 vs the Angels and D-Backs who could very well finish last. That's a .636 winning percentage (103 win pace). It's similar to how a lot of playoff teams perform against poor teams.

The Jays are 22-17 against the same opponents for one.

 

[dhappy42]

Worse, of Toronto, Boston and Baltimore, the Jays have the easiest schedule, playing the Angels four times. (Baltimore plays Detroit.) To make the playoffs, this team needs to start hitting on all cylinders now and stop losing winnable games.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

this looked like a 86-88 win team on paper in spring training, and .500 ball the rest of the way will end up putting us there.

we all hope we can get over that, and it's been a weird path to match the projections, but here we are.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Schizophrenic might be the adjective we're looking for. I was in San Diego for a couple of weeks, mid August, visiting my son. He put the Padres game on the TV and I noticed "Jackson" on the back of the Pads pitcher. I said is that Edwin Jackson who was good for Tampa Bay years ago and mostly terrible since? The Padres have him in their rotation? Yup. He gives up 8 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings before they pull him. That was to the Rays. So, he shuts down the best offense in baseball today. Really weird game, baseball.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Schizophrenic might be the adjective we're looking for. I was in San Diego for a couple of weeks, mid August, visiting my son. He put the Padres game on the TV and I noticed "Jackson" on the back of the Pads pitcher. I said is that Edwin Jackson who was good for Tampa Bay years ago and mostly terrible since? The Padres have him in their rotation? Yup. He gives up 8 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings before they pull him. That was to the Rays. So, he shuts down the best offense in baseball today. Really weird game, baseball.

The thing about baseball is bad pitchers can actually pitch well. They would not be in MLB if they could not . What distinguishes the front end/middle of the rotation guys from the back end guys and replacement level SP'ers is largely a matter of consistency. What makes some guys more consistent than others is really the secret to figuring the game out. Wish I had a clue what it is.

 

[joe dokes]

The thing about baseball is bad pitchers can actually pitch well. They would not be in MLB if they could not . What distinguishes the front end/middle of the rotation guys from the back end guys and replacement level SP'ers is largely a matter of consistency. What makes some guys more consistent than others is really the secret to figuring the game out. Wish I had a clue what it is.

Right. This was Jackson's 5th good start (none quite *this* good, but good) sandwiched around 4 really shitty ones since he went into the SD rotation after the ASB.

 

[NoXInNixon]

These west coast games are games they should be winning, but the must win games are the ones against Toronto and Baltimore. There are going to be stinkers over the next month and I'd rather they be against the A's and Padres than against teams that matter.

 

[chrisfont9]

These west coast games are games they should be winning, but the must win games are the ones against Toronto and Baltimore. There are going to be stinkers over the next month and I'd rather they be against the A's and Padres than against teams that matter.

Sure. And I've been wondering if there was any chance to hold back Price to start him Friday against Toronto instead of running him out there against the Padres, but of course that's only a possibility where you have Buchholz available to take the start, which he isn't thanks to Wright's condition. Maybe Farrell doesn't like playing matchups here? Or maybe he's already mapped it out and has Price/Porcello/Edro lined up for the last Toronto series instead.

 

[grimshaw]

This doesn't really belong in any one one thread but some base-running stats

-Mookie Bett's BsR (baserunning) season of 9.2 runs above average is tied for the 2nd best of the Red Sox all time with Jacob Ellsbury's 2008.

-Hanley had a +10 season in 2006 or he would be 2nd.

-David Ortiz' -8.9 is 3rd worst and his is also 3rd worst total in history. He could hit 2nd if Billy Butler has his way.

-The single best in history was Vince Coleman's 15.7 1986 season (107 steals in 121 attempts does that for you).

-Billy Butler has had 3 of the 4 poorest seasons in history. His -12.7 in 2012 was the worst.

With Papi retiring, and adding Benintendi and Moncada over the next few years, the baserunning will be an absolute terror. At least 5 out of 9 positions would be way above average, with Swihart still a slight possibility, and Hanley and Pedey as two of the other 3. Hanley as indicated used to be way above average, but he's gotten a bit more reckless. My theory is he hasn't quite adjusted to losing some speed while maintaining his aggressiveness.

They have got some serious run-manufacturing years ahead of them with obvious obp and power to boot.

 

[Idabomb333]

They have got some serious run-manufacturing years ahead of them with obvious obp and power to boot.

I don't think I'm qualified to evaluate Farrell as an in-game manager, but I've been mulling over a post about how his approach to base running is underestimated. The Sox have been very aggressive and that has generally worked out very well for them. That contributes to runs scored, of course, but it wouldn't have anything to do with performance relative to Pythagorean expected wins because it shows up in the run differential. Might be worth studying whether the Sox have scored more runs than the linear weights value of their plate appearances or something like that. Similarly, are they better at shifting than other teams? Do people consider these things part of in-game management?

Sorry for the diversion. Dopes, feel free to move this to the Farrell thread.

Back on topic, I think the base running could be a very valuable factor in the post season, given the likely lower run scoring environment.

 

[tims4wins]

Pretty sure they have actually scored less than their linear weights would suggest (due to some clutch hitting stats e.g., bases loaded), which is way some advanced projected W/L metrics have them underperforming by even more than the 3-4 games that simple runs scored / runs allowed pythag suggests.

 

[Saints Rest]

The number of people in the bullpen can also be looked at as how many field players might be needed.

Until the World Series, should we get that far, we can probably assume that the following positions are locked in:
1B - Hanley
2B - Pedey
SS - X
RF - Mookie
CF - JBJ
DH - Ortiz
C - Leon/H
Obviously, we need a backup catcher, who this season, like a Goalie in the NHL, might never see a minute. So I'll add one of the H's there.

3B - Shaw will make the squad as he can also cover 1B
LF - Young and Holt both make the squad.

That's 11 players.

Considering that Holt can cover SS, 2B and 3B, we are technically covered for any situation.

So how many more players do we want and what special skills should they bring?

I think we want the best base-stealer/base-runner available for that rare case when pinch-running for Ortiz or Leon would be needed. Moncada is likely the fastest player available, but is he the best/smartest choice for that role? We would rather Dave Roberts than Kolten Wong.

It would be nice to have a great defensive sub for LF, but I don't know if this team has that person, other than Rusney, who would be worth the roster spot for an upgrade over Young or Holt who are both fine out there even if nothing to write home about. Basically my same feeling about Marrero to cover for 3B.

So in the end, I think that we only really need 12 position players, leaving 13 for the pen. Considering the volatility of our pitching, I would think having multiple options out there would be worth it to allow Farrell to have a very short hook and/or to play OOGY situations to the max.

 

[tims4wins]

No way they carry a 9 man pen + 4 man rotation. 8 max maybe 7

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think we want the best base-stealer/base-runner available for that rare case when pinch-running for Ortiz or Leon would be needed. Moncada is likely the fastest player available, but is he the best/smartest choice for that role? We would rather Dave Roberts than Kolten Wong.

It would be nice to have a great defensive sub for LF, but I don't know if this team has that person, other than Rusney, who would be worth the roster spot for an upgrade over Young or Holt who are both fine out there even if nothing to write home about.

Andrew Benintendi says hello.

 

[BestGameEvah]

I think we want the best base-stealer/base-runner available for that rare case when pinch-running for Ortiz or Leon would be needed. Moncada is likely the fastest player available, but is he the best/smartest choice for that role? We would rather Dave Roberts than Kolten Wong.

It's easy to second guess from the comfy couch, but yesterday I wanted Holt to run for Papi, not Yoan after reading what was reported in the Globe:

So, who’s the best base runner on the Red Sox? Base running coach Brian Butterfield didn’t hesitate — Brock Holt. Butterfield cited Holt’s instincts, knowledge of the situation, knowledge of who is hitting behind him, and certainly the physical aspect of running . . .

Now Mookie is the fastest, but he's been picked off 1st twice this year, too.
Did you read the little blurb about HOW Kolten Wong was picked off in 2013?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Brock's career suggest he isn't the best base stealer available. How you determine who the best base runner is, I dunno. As far as SB goes, Betts is 23/26 this year, Holt is 3/5. I'd guess once Moncada gets adjusted to the MLB level, he'll be the best base stealer on the team or 2nd behind Mookie.

 

[BestGameEvah]

Betts is already in the game. I was responding to Saints Rest and his contemplation of a good baserunner off the bench. You ask the coach who you want to steal a base and he suggests instincts and knowledge of the situation is essential, you listen to him right? Do we want to keep throwing Moncada out there in this race? I'm not sure I do, god bless him!

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'd keep throwing him out there until it proves to be a pattern and not a mistake. If he proves to be more like Rusney than Betts, make whatever move is necessary.

 

[wilked]

I think 92 wins will be needed to win the division. That means 12-8 the rest of the way at a minimum... Win the series and it will take care of itself.

With the AL least largely playing itself, the good news is that a win for one team is a loss for another. The other side of the coin is that the Sox still have 4 against Baltimore and 3 against the Jays, so those teams can climb the standings quickly with some H2H wins

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So you think it is likely that while beating up on each other one of the Jays or Orioles is likely to go 14-6 or better, or that the Yankees will to 16-4 or better?

I think 12-8 the rest of the way virtually locks the division in for the Sox. That's not to say that the road isn't tough, but 90 wins may well be enough. Hell, it isn't crazy to think that 88 could get it done.

 

[simplicio]

So you think it is likely that while beating up on each other one of the Jays or Orioles is likely to go 14-6 or better, or that the Yankees will to 16-4 or better?

I think 12-8 the rest of the way virtually locks the division in for the Sox. That's not to say that the road isn't tough, but 90 wins may well be enough. Hell, it isn't crazy to think that 88 could get it done.

Current five thirty eight predictions have us at 91 wins, Jays at 89, O's 88, Tigers 87, Astros & Yanks 86.

Also at 15% to win the World Series, second to the Cubs at 20%. I'll take that outlook every day and twice on Tuesday.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

 

[Saints Rest]

Andrew Benintendi says hello.

Out of sight, out of mind:
He's out of my sight and I'm out of my mind.
Assuming Benny makes it back to full health, he fulfills both the PR and LF role.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Is it just me or do the Red Sox have an abnormally high number of "gut-punch" losses for a fisrt-place team. Shows some character on their part.

Just noticed while Red Sox are 16-21 in one-run games and Toronto is 16-23, the MFYs are 24-9. Almost as good as that 2012 Orioles team that went 29-9.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Is it just me or do the Red Sox have an abnormally high number of "gut-punch" losses for a fisrt-place team. Shows some character on their part.

Just noticed while Red Sox are 16-21 in one-run games and Toronto is 16-23, the MFYs are 24-9. Almost as good as that 2012 Orioles team that went 29-9.

I suppose one could chalk this up to the bullpen. Yankees and the 2012 Orioles had a great bullpen. Red Sox and Jays have had their issues out of the pen

 

[Sampo Gida]

Is there any better 1,2,3 in a rotation than Price, Pomeranz and Porcello have been over the last 1-2 months. The Big P's , which include Papi and Pedroia are rivaling the Baby B's as the teams most important asset going down the stretch.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Is there any better 1,2,3 in a rotation than Price, Pomeranz and Porcello have been over the last 1-2 months. The Big P's , which include Papi and Pedroia are rivaling the Baby B's as the teams most important asset going down the stretch.

Since the all star break, ERod has an era of 2.76 in 10 GS, 58.2ip 20bb/50k. Staff is looking really good. Pom has an era of 3.97 in 10 GS, 56.2ip 59k/20bb.

 

[Otis Foster]

Out of sight, out of mind:
He's out of my sight and I'm out of my mind.
Assuming Benny makes it back to full health, he fulfills both the PR and LF role.

When did you write that - 'Round Midnight?

 

[BaseballJones]

On this recent road trip....

Six wins by scores of:

16-2
11-2
5-1
7-2
13-3
11-8
AVG: 10.5 - 3
AVG MARGIN: +7.5

Three losses by scores of:
1-0
2-1
3-2
AVG: 2-1 (not that this math isn't easy enough for you all to do in your head)
AVG MARGIN: -1.0

Sox are 0-5 in their last five one-run games. 5-10 in their 15 one-run games since the all-star break.

 

[Rasputin]

Out of sight, out of mind:
He's out of my sight and I'm out of my mind.
Assuming Benny makes it back to full health, he fulfills both the PR and LF role.

He can't play left field and pinch run both.

If Benintendi is healthy, I assume he's going to be the left fielder.

I also assume the playoff bench is going to be Catcher, Holt, Hill, Young, and either Moncada as a pinch runner, or Marco Hernandez as mini-holt.

 

[Curtis Pride]

Yesterday's game was the only game in this road trip in which the Red Sox pitching staff surrendered more than three runs and the starter didn't pitch into the sixth inning.

 

[phenweigh]

During the first half of the season, much was made by many that the Sox needed to establish a lead in the standings because of the second-half schedule contained many road games. Since the All-Star break the Sox are 20-14 on the road. (11-10 at home) Yes, they compile a seeming large number of nut-punch losses, but they are showing tremendous resiliency.

The remaining home/away schedule is even with 10 games at home and 10 games away. It will be great if they can reestablish some Fenway dominance on this 7 game home stand, and give themselves some breathing room in the AL East standings.

 

[Saints Rest]

He can't play left field and pinch run both.

If Benintendi is healthy, I assume he's going to be the left fielder.

I also assume the playoff bench is going to be Catcher, Holt, Hill, Young, and either Moncada as a pinch runner, or Marco Hernandez as mini-holt.

If they go with a 5 man bench, you could be right. But I wouldn't be surprised -- and I think it's the way I would go -- for them to stick with a 4-man bench to give them one more pitcher. Thus I think the bench is Catcher, Holt, Young/Benny, and one more, probably Moncada. I don't see what Hill or Marco offer that Holt doesn't cover.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Since the All-Star break the Sox are 20-14 on the road. (11-10 at home) Yes, they compile a seeming large number of nut-punch losses, but they are showing tremendous resiliency.

A couple of glosses on these points: (1) Since the ASB the Sox have had 10 road series. They have won or split 9 of them. That's tremendous. (2) Since the start of their first West Coast trip on July 28, they haven't lost more than two in a row.

 

[grimshaw]

That series was obviously critical, but having the two game lead while the Jays play the Rays and Angels over the next 7 makes it even more so.
Here's hoping the Rays keep up the spoiler act and don't pick now to roll over. The Yanks losing to Kershaw and co. would be pretty great too. I want no part of a young and hungry team in the playoffs.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If they go with a 5 man bench, you could be right. But I wouldn't be surprised -- and I think it's the way I would go -- for them to stick with a 4-man bench to give them one more pitcher. Thus I think the bench is Catcher, Holt, Young/Benny, and one more, probably Moncada. I don't see what Hill or Marco offer that Holt doesn't cover.

Moncada only makes the post-season roster as the 5th guy on the bench if he makes it at all. As bright as the kid's future might be, he's currently on the same level as Hernandez or Marrero in the roster heirarchy. That puts him below Hill in the pecking order.

As far as the bullpen, there's no compelling reason to carry more than seven relievers. Not with the playoff rotation we expect them to have (health-permitting). Unless we're expecting many extra inning games, I think between the scheduled off-days and the starters' capabilities to get relatively deep into games, seven should be more than enough.

 

[Broda]

Current five thirty eight predictions have us at 91 wins, Jays at 89, O's 88, Tigers 87, Astros & Yanks 86.

Also at 15% to win the World Series, second to the Cubs at 20%. I'll take that outlook every day and twice on Tuesday.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

Agreed. That's about all you can ask for when you have a juggernaut like the Cubs on the other side.

The Cubs juggernaut against San Fran's smoke and mirrors in even years could be a fun little battle in its own right.

 

[Van Everyman]

On this recent road trip....

Six wins by scores of:

16-2
11-2
5-1
7-2
13-3
11-8
AVG: 10.5 - 3
AVG MARGIN: +7.5

Three losses by scores of:
1-0
2-1
3-2
AVG: 2-1 (not that this math isn't easy enough for you all to do in your head)
AVG MARGIN: -1.0

Sox are 0-5 in their last five one-run games. 5-10 in their 15 one-run games since the all-star break.

Honestly, all this tells me is that the starting and relief pitching has been awesome -- 2 or less runs in 7 out of 9 games with one of those two outlier games 3 runs? That is seriously awesome.

 

[BaseballJones]

Honestly, all this tells me is that the starting and relief pitching has been awesome -- 2 or less runs in 7 out of 9 games with one of those two outlier games 3 runs? That is seriously awesome.

Yes it is. The pitching has been terrific aside from basically Clay yesterday.

 

[Broda]

Yes it is. The pitching has been terrific aside from basically Clay yesterday.

Clay was a Pedroia drop (on a tough play, but he got more than enough leather on it to catch it) from being out of that inning with a 0 too.

but Clay has a tendency to fall apart when those things happen to him.

 

[Saints Rest]

Moncada only makes the post-season roster as the 5th guy on the bench if he makes it at all. As bright as the kid's future might be, he's currently on the same level as Hernandez or Marrero in the roster heirarchy. That puts him below Hill in the pecking order.

As far as the bullpen, there's no compelling reason to carry more than seven relievers. Not with the playoff rotation we expect them to have (health-permitting). Unless we're expecting many extra inning games, I think between the scheduled off-days and the starters' capabilities to get relatively deep into games, seven should be more than enough.

For me the compelling reason is that there is so much volatility there. If Bad Barnes or Bad Clay or Bad Abad or Bad (fill in the blank) shows up, I'd rather Playoff Farrell have the extra arms available to pull him quickly. Or to have the option to go ROOGY, LOOGY, ROOGY (or whatever matchup seems most productive at the moment). I hate having to watch any manager try to finesse a pitcher with pronounced splits thru a LRLR lineup to try to get 2 or 3 outs, when you might have the option to platoon your pitchers for one inning to get to your core guys.

Personally I'd value that versatility, considering the state of this year's bullpen, to the potential plus/minus calculus of pulling Shaw for a PH or pulling Leon for a PR.