I flat out do not understand the idea that Mariano Rivera "deserved" to be voted in unanimously. Here's stacking up his career against a few contemporaries, all Hall of Famers themselves.
Rivera: 2.21 ERA, 82-60, 1283.2 IP, 1173 Ks, 286 BBs, 2.76 FIP.
Player A: 2.13 ERA, 90-40, 1191.2 IP, 905 Ks, 204 BBs, 2.58 FIP
Player B: 2.63 ERA, 100-38, 1274.1 IP, 1746 Ks, 374 BBs, 2.60 FIP
Player C: 2.20 ERA, 104-32, 1221.1 IP, 1555 Ks, 268 BBs, 2.27 FIP
In Rivera's favor is the fact that his innings are all high leverage. Weighted against him is the fact that Player A and Player B accomplished those totals in a mere 5 seasons, while Player C has an injury abbreviated 6th season in there. If anyone "deserved" to be the first player (and a pitcher at that) to be voted in unanimously, it would be one of Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, or Pedro Martinez. Rivera was a Hall of Fame player...but he's not in the conversation with Inner Circle, potential GOAT, guys like that who really deserved to be put into the Hall unanimously.
You're cooking the books by comparing peak rate stats for starters with career rate stats for the reliever. It would be fairer to compare the career rate stats for everybody, and pro-rate the counting stats per 1283.2 innings, leaving W-L out of it because that's even more meaningless for relievers than for starters. Here's what you get when you do that:I flat out do not understand the idea that Mariano Rivera "deserved" to be voted in unanimously. Here's stacking up his career against a few contemporaries, all Hall of Famers themselves.
Rivera: 2.21 ERA, 82-60, 1283.2 IP, 1173 Ks, 286 BBs, 2.76 FIP.
Player A: 2.13 ERA, 90-40, 1191.2 IP, 905 Ks, 204 BBs, 2.58 FIP
Player B: 2.63 ERA, 100-38, 1274.1 IP, 1746 Ks, 374 BBs, 2.60 FIP
Player C: 2.20 ERA, 104-32, 1221.1 IP, 1555 Ks, 268 BBs, 2.27 FIP
In Rivera's favor is the fact that his innings are all high leverage. Weighted against him is the fact that Player A and Player B accomplished those totals in a mere 5 seasons, while Player C has an injury abbreviated 6th season in there. If anyone "deserved" to be the first player (and a pitcher at that) to be voted in unanimously, it would be one of Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, or Pedro Martinez. Rivera was a Hall of Fame player...but he's not in the conversation with Inner Circle, potential GOAT, guys like that who really deserved to be put into the Hall unanimously.
Though it would be stupid, I can imagine some idiot not voting for Mariano but not Pedro or Maddux because Pedro "didn't have enough wins" and Maddux "was a postseason failure". But what's the convoluted logic where you'd vote for Mariano but not Randy Johnson?
How is comparing rate stats of a reliever and a starter even remotely fair? The fact that those 3 are even close to Rivera is why they all should have been voted unanimously before him.You're cooking the books by comparing peak rate stats for starters with career rate stats for the reliever. It would be fairer to compare the career rate stats for everybody, and pro-rate the counting stats per 1283.2 innings, leaving W-L out of it because that's even more meaningless for relievers than for starters. Here's what you get when you do that:
Rivera: 2.21 ERA, 1173 Ks, 286 BBs, 2.76 FIP
Maddux: 3.16 ERA, 864 Ks, 256 BBs, 3.26 FIP
Johnson: 3.29 ERA, 1513 Ks, 465 BBs, 3.19 FIP
Martinez: 2.93 ERA, 1432 Ks, 345 BBs, 2.91 FIP
The only one of the three starters who compares well with Rivera in this frame is Pedro. And I think the only reason why Pedro was not a unanimous first-ballot HoFer was the relatively short career and consequently modest counting stats.
Good points.I think we can consider "The Backlog" to be largely cleared here, aside from Bonds and Clemens remaining. Next year only one sure-thing is joining the ballot (Jeter), and only 2-3 other "Vote-bait" candidates who aren't getting in but whose HOF Monitor rating is >100 (Jason Giambi 108 / 50.5 WAR, Alfonso Soriano 105 / 28.2 WAR, plus Bobby Abreu 95 / 60.5 WAR). Meanwhile, this year they elected 2 first-balloters, 1 long-building-campaign guy (Edgar), and 1 bubble guy who was probably getting in sooner or later, so sooner is better than later (Moose) - all of whom were going to siphon big shares of votes until they got in. I'm not sure that next year even the "Big Hall" voters will think there are >10 deserving candidates, so finally their vote will probably be concentrated on all those they think are worthy. That alone should bump the top candidates a few percentage points here and there.
Yes, and even worse, as Jeff Passan just resarched:I might have a totally skewed perspective but I thought Clemens and Bonds would improve their percentages more than they did, just a couple percentage points each. I wonder if they're hitting a curmudgeon enforced ceiling.
Further, the year after next, I’m not sure there are any first-timers who will make a second ballot. The best first-timers by WAR are Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter - can anyone make a case for those guys? I think that will ultimately be the year for Bonds and Clemens. Then we get to go through all of this nonsense again with A-Rod starting in 2021!I think we can consider "The Backlog" to be largely cleared here, aside from Bonds and Clemens remaining. Next year only one sure-thing is joining the ballot (Jeter), and only 2-3 other "Vote-bait" candidates who aren't getting in but whose HOF Monitor rating is >100 (Jason Giambi 108 / 50.5 WAR, Alfonso Soriano 105 / 28.2 WAR, plus Bobby Abreu 95 / 60.5 WAR). Meanwhile, this year they elected 2 first-balloters, 1 long-building-campaign guy (Edgar), and 1 bubble guy who was probably getting in sooner or later, so sooner is better than later (Moose) - all of whom were going to siphon big shares of votes until they got in. I'm not sure that next year even the "Big Hall" voters will think there are >10 deserving candidates, so finally their vote will probably be concentrated on all those they think are worthy. That alone should bump the top candidates a few percentage points here and there.
It's true that there's a discrepancy between RP and SP when it comes to rate stats, but it's not as big as you're suggesting. From 1995 to 2010 (roughly the period in question), MLB relievers had a FIP of 4.32, while starters had a FIP of 4.49. This gives Mo a (non-park-adjusted) FIP- relative to his group of 64, compared to Maddux' 73 and Johnson's 71. So, not as big a difference when looked at that way, but Mo still comes out ahead. (Pedro comes out at 65, virtually identical to Mo.)How is comparing rate stats of a reliever and a starter even remotely fair? The fact that those 3 are even close to Rivera is why they all should have been voted unanimously before him.
Hunter might get enough votes to make it to a second year, coz Gold Gloves and team leader and stuff. The other two seem like longer shots, though the "more wins than Pedro!" argument could conceivably win some votes for Hudson.Further, the year after next, I’m not sure there are any first-timers who will make a second ballot. The best first-timers by WAR are Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter - can anyone make a case for those guys? I think that will ultimately be the year for Bonds and Clemens. Then we get to go through all of this nonsense again with A-Rod starting in 2021!
Isn’t this the exact same logic that got those guys not voted unanimously? Thank god we don’t have to hear this inane shit every year anymore. Vote percentage won’t be anywhere near my thoughts when I finally see Pedro’s plaque in the hall.How is comparing rate stats of a reliever and a starter even remotely fair? The fact that those 3 are even close to Rivera is why they all should have been voted unanimously before him.
What offends me the most is the sanctimonious, holier-than-thou attitude of these voters. The entire baseball community is complicit in the "steroid era," including the Commissioner's Office, the teams, the players and the sportswriters (and to a lesser extent, even the fans). Except for a very few, these sportswriters were more than happy to make a very nice living covering (and in many cases, glorifying) the exploits of these stars without raising a hue and cry about how they were cheating to get these results. My feeling is that unless they were calling for a boycott of the game to stop the rampant cheating, then they have forfeited the right to complain about it now. We have a pretty good idea that PED use was fairly widespread, but we'll never know everyone who used and who didn't. So it's impossible to really sort this out, and it's unfair to penalize just a few, who happen to be among the best to ever play the game. Especially when there was no similar penalty imposed for all those who cheated by using greenies, starting in at least the 60s.Yes, and even worse, as Jeff Passan just resarched:
"Ryan Thibodaux's invaluable Hall of Fame tracker collates every ballot made public by a writer, and this season it published the choices of 232 voters. About 60 of them did not vote for Bonds and Clemens. I wanted to know why, so I reached out to them.
It's an interesting group. Only 10 percent or so are full-time baseball writers. Plenty are retired. Some are general sports columnists. A handful are football writers. Others cover hockey, golf, college basketball. Another does digital marketing. One writes for the American Heart Association."
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25826093/mlb-why-barry-bonds-roger-clemens-getting-hall-fame
What's wrong with that quote? He realizes everything that happened was his fault and he's disappointed in it. It's not like he sued his personal trainer or anything.A-Rod. This fucking guy. He is NEVER going to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. NEVER.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25833082/alex-rodriguez-says-roger-clemens-barry-bonds-deserve-make-hall-fame
"Look, I pray every day I get a chance to get in," Rodriguez said. "The Hall of Fame is the ultimate place...."I would love to get in, but I understand that I made my own bed. So if I don't make it to the Hall of Fame, I can live with that. I will be bummed, it would suck and I can't believe that I put myself in this situation. But if that happens, I have no one to blame but myself."
Live with it A-Rod.
Yeah, Bonds and Clemens only gained like 2 percent over last year despite the big gain in the public voters. Does look like none of the "Steroid Guys" are getting in, and that includes A-Rod and Ortiz.A-Rod. This fucking guy. He is NEVER going to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. NEVER.
I’d bet almost anything that Ortiz gets in by year 2 of eligibility.Yeah, Bonds and Clemens only gained like 2 percent over last year despite the big gain in the public voters. Does look like none of the "Steroid Guys" are getting in, and that includes A-Rod and Ortiz.
Next year it looks like it's only going to be Jeter unless they also vote in Schilling which I doubt.
He comes off well and sympathetic there, and I don’t like the dude. I hope he manages to find some joy while dating J-Lo and having hundreds of millions of dollars.A-Rod. This fucking guy. He is NEVER going to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. NEVER.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25833082/alex-rodriguez-says-roger-clemens-barry-bonds-deserve-make-hall-fame
"Look, I pray every day I get a chance to get in," Rodriguez said. "The Hall of Fame is the ultimate place...."I would love to get in, but I understand that I made my own bed. So if I don't make it to the Hall of Fame, I can live with that. I will be bummed, it would suck and I can't believe that I put myself in this situation. But if that happens, I have no one to blame but myself."
Live with it A-Rod.
Yeah, I think it's a pretty good and honest quote.What's wrong with that quote? He realizes everything that happened was his fault and he's disappointed in it. It's not like he sued his personal trainer or anything.
I hated him as much as anyone while he was playing, but retired A-Rod is all right with me. He clearly loves the game more than anything or else he'd be hanging at home with his hundreds of millions of dollars instead of traveling around the country every week to be on TV. Jeter was clearly always the asshole and kept quiet to hide it. A-Rod is just an insecure weirdo who likes baseball and steroids and centaurs.
And/or exactly the kind of humility he needs to express if he wants to make the HoF.Yeah, I think it's a pretty good and honest quote.
Character is the way you act when no one is watching.What offends me the most is the sanctimonious, holier-than-thou attitude of these voters. The entire baseball community is complicit in the "steroid era," including the Commissioner's Office, the teams, the players and the sportswriters (and to a lesser extent, even the fans). Except for a very few, these sportswriters were more than happy to make a very nice living covering (and in many cases, glorifying) the exploits of these stars without raising a hue and cry about how they were cheating to get these results. My feeling is that unless they were calling for a boycott of the game to stop the rampant cheating, then they have forfeited the right to complain about it now. We have a pretty good idea that PED use was fairly widespread, but we'll never know everyone who used and who didn't. So it's impossible to really sort this out, and it's unfair to penalize just a few, who happen to be among the best to ever play the game. Especially when there was no similar penalty imposed for all those who cheated by using greenies, starting in at least the 60s.
Passan's article quotes CHB as one of the anti-steroid voters. And we all know he's a sanctimonious prick.
I think Larry Walker will get a lot of votes when people start comparing him to Harold Baines.Yeah, Bonds and Clemens only gained like 2 percent over last year despite the big gain in the public voters. Does look like none of the "Steroid Guys" are getting in, and that includes A-Rod and Ortiz.
Next year it looks like it's only going to be Jeter unless they also vote in Schilling which I doubt.
Viewed a certain way, yes, maybe Bonds and Clemens have reached a ceiling of sorts. At the same time, since 2013, they've gone from 35ish percent of the vote to now about 60. The voting chapter of the BBWAA has been collectively changing its mind on the PED issue, in other words, over the course of just these six years. Now consider that A-Rod will potentially be on the ballot until 2031 - that's plenty of time for the hivemind to further soften to the point where they'd elect a guy with his history, especially since this is a group that seems a bit prone to the herd mentality. It might not be right away, but yeah, I think he'll get in.Yeah, Bonds and Clemens only gained like 2 percent over last year despite the big gain in the public voters. Does look like none of the "Steroid Guys" are getting in, and that includes A-Rod and Ortiz.
Next year it looks like it's only going to be Jeter unless they also vote in Schilling which I doubt.
Jenkins is an old fart but he consistently submits decent ballots, his love for Vizquel aside. He voted for everybody who got in this year, plus Bonds, Clemens, Manny, and Sosa. That is decent work.Last night on KNBR, Tom Tolbert was interviewing Bruce Jenkins, who's the oldest baseball writer out here (SF) and is constantly crying about new stats, pitch counts, etc. Tolbert talked for literally two minutes about how intense it was for him to vote on the NBA rookie of the year the one year he had to do it as a lead-in to asking Jenkins how much he deliberates when voting for the HoF. Jenkins said "it takes me 5 minutes, because I already know all of these guys and what they did, and I vote based on how I remember them at the time." He then tried to cover himself by claiming that he looks at their stats, but used that as a way to joke about how dumb modern stats are. It's unsurprising -- Jenkins is a horse's ass -- but it's a good reminder of just how miraculous it is when the writers' votes actually result in a sensible result.
Edited to add: Jenkins is a Manny voter, so I have to at least give him that.
I think the better analogy is this: how many people obey the speed limit on the interstate when there's no enforcement? And even this analogy falls short, because it ignores the pressure/incentive to cheat when you know many others are doing it. It would be more like if Nascar didn't enforce any of the rules about ground clearance, spoilers, restrictor plates, etc.Character is the way you act when no one is watching.
This post sounds like, “My friends made me do it!” Hence, the old saying, “If all your friends jumped off a bridge, would you follow them?”
It really depends on how likely you think the voters will lump him in with the rest of the Steroid Guys. Manny's not gotten anywhere beyond the mid 20s; Bonds and Clemens are stuck in the 50s, Sheffield is only getting 10s.I’d bet almost anything that Ortiz gets in by year 2 of eligibility.
Where I live, I see people doing 65 in a 50 zone and a state police trooper zooming along with them.I think the better analogy is this: how many people obey the speed limit on the interstate when there's no enforcement?
Or as CS Lewis said,Cheating is not right, but when the rules are not being enforced, and the other cheaters are being applauded for their accomplishments, then I find it hard to fault those who don't want to be left behind. And as I said, my biggest problem is with the hypocritical writers who said nothing about this at the time but who now trying to claim the moral high ground - I think they relinquished this by their actions, or rather, their inaction, during this period.
I just don’t see the comparison, especially to AFraud and Manny. The vast majority of Ortiz’s production came during the testing era, 2004-2016, and because of the never explained positive result in 2003, he was tested often during the following years. He never failed a test again. Manny failed two. Ortiz never showed up as a client in the raids of major steroid distribution rings. AFraud and Bonds and Clemens got caught red handed in those.It really depends on how likely you think the voters will lump him in with the rest of the Steroid Guys. Manny's not gotten anywhere beyond the mid 20s; Bonds and Clemens are stuck in the 50s, Sheffield is only getting 10s.
The one thing working for him is that there is nobody else new other than Jeter on the ballot the next four years. Maybe Beltran. Could be good news for Helton I suppose.
"But it was another comment he made during his breakout ’92 season that would forever dog him. “The Brewers brought out the hate in me. I was a crazy man,” he told the LA Times, “I hated everything about the place. If the official scorer gave me an error, I didn't think was an error, I'd say, ‘OK, here's a real error,’ and I'd throw the next ball into the stands on purpose.” He almost immediately disavowed the claim that he had purposely tanked plays. He said he was referring to single incident that occurred in A ball. A numberof people have investigated the claim, the consensus being that no such scenario ever occurred when Sheffield was with the Brewers. Still, one of the most damaging legends about a ballplayer was born."In addition to ‘roids, Sheffield admitted to tanking games on purpose to force a trade.
Shit. What a bummer.Bill Shaikin @BillShaikin 9m9 minutes ago
From the Hall of Fame: Tom Seaver's family announced today that he has been diagnosed with dementia. Tom will continue to work in his beloved vineyard at his California home, but has chosen to completely retire from public life.