Peter's got a new piece up, and what caught my eye was this chart:
Gammons then cites case after case where young hitters have failed to immediately set the world afire upon reaching the majors.
There's a common thread among many of the strugglers:
Then the Sox' manager chimes in:
And Farrell isn't alone:
What Peter's piece doesn't delve into, however, is why these same teams are so willing to buy into the hype themselves and promote their top prospects faster than they should, or what these same execs & managers might offer as solutions to the problem. There's also no discussion of the financial motivations as teams try the squeeze the most value out of these kids during their projected peak years before they become arb- and FA-eligible, and to earn payback on some of the larger bonuses doled out when they're initially signed.
Still, this is one of Gammons' best write-ups in years, and reminds me of how a decade ago each and every one of his columns would spawn a new main board thread.
Anyway, while it's interesting to see Bradley & Bogaerts are far from alone in facing these challenges, and the myriad reasons why that may be the case, I'm not sure it's any more reassuring.
Gammons then cites case after case where young hitters have failed to immediately set the world afire upon reaching the majors.
The Red Sox are in last place, and there is open questioning of the second youngest player in the league, Xander Bogaerts. Before the season, he was the second highest-rated position player prospect on Baseball America’s prospect list. The highest, Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, has suffered two serious injuries and reached double-A, so Bogaerts was the highest rated major league rookie player.
Forward to Oscar Taveras in St. Louis, who is reaching base 26.3% of the time, and Pittsburgh’s Gregory Polanco, who recently went 1-for-27. George Springer has hit 20 homers in Houston but had growing pains, as has Nick Castellanos in Detroit, and Jackie Bradley in Boston fell so hard he landed in Pawtucket.
Jose Abreu, who is 27 and defected from the major leagues in Cuba, is the only rookie in all of baseball with more than 10 HR and 60 RBI. Brock Holt has the second highest OPS of any qualified rookie in either league. Neal Huntington in Pittsburgh knows that Polanco has all the makings of a future star, but because of injuries, Polanco had to be rushed to Pittsburgh after 64 games in triple-A, a far cry from the 204 AAA games Andrew McCutchen was allowed to experience before he took his place in center field. When Polanco was in the minors, the Pirates were often charged with holding Polanco back because of service time, when, in fact, they wanted him to be better prepared for the major leagues.
There's a common thread among many of the strugglers:
Bogaerts has 60 games of triple-A experience. Taveras 108. George Springer 75. Travis d’Arnaud 101. Jackie Bradley 83.
Then the Sox' manager chimes in:
“The gap between triple-A and the majors may be wider than it’s ever been,” says Boston manager John Farrell, whose experience includes being the Indians farm director. “There’s so much hype on some of these young players, being exposed to major league pitching at such young ages can be discouraging.” Coaches on two different teams added that not immediately fulfilling the buildup can sometimes be embarrassing because of the expectations players, fans, teams, media and the individuals themselves put on 21 and 22 year old players. “It’s also more difficult for kids who are on teams that have high team expectations,” says one club official. “It’s a lot different breaking in on a team that is in a small market and is not in contention. If you’re trying to make the jump to a team like the Red Sox or Yankees, the scrutiny from opposing teams as well as the media can be very stifling.”
And Farrell isn't alone:
Talking to more than a dozen managers, coaches and general managers, the overwhelming feeling is that it is a lot harder to adjust to hitting on the major league level than any recent period in memory. One oft-cited reason is the incredible scouting preparation. One GM says that where a decade ago teams relied on written advance reports and a little video, now young players are given no time to go unnoticed because of the enormous volume of coordinated video and preparation. “No one is a surprise longer than a three game series,” says one GM.
Then there are all the shifts a Bogaerts or Taveras has never faced. Or the bullpens; face the Royals, and you get on time around against Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland throwing 100, 98 and 99, respectively. “What you get is two at-bats against a starter who is probably better than anyone you’ve faced in the minors,” says one hitting coach. “Then you get one or two looks at some reliever throwing 96 to 100.
Some even cite the smaller, thinner bats of today’s games. “It’s all about batspeed and showtime,” says one pro scouting director. “That leads to a ton of swing and misses. It goes back to the showcase circuits, which is carnival baseball, where it’s all about batting practice, not winning baseball games and execution.”
What Peter's piece doesn't delve into, however, is why these same teams are so willing to buy into the hype themselves and promote their top prospects faster than they should, or what these same execs & managers might offer as solutions to the problem. There's also no discussion of the financial motivations as teams try the squeeze the most value out of these kids during their projected peak years before they become arb- and FA-eligible, and to earn payback on some of the larger bonuses doled out when they're initially signed.
Still, this is one of Gammons' best write-ups in years, and reminds me of how a decade ago each and every one of his columns would spawn a new main board thread.
Anyway, while it's interesting to see Bradley & Bogaerts are far from alone in facing these challenges, and the myriad reasons why that may be the case, I'm not sure it's any more reassuring.