Correct. So it's either that the pitchers are so terrible that well respected pitching coaches can't do anything with them or the pitchers are underperforming because of the incompetence of the so called well respected pitching coaches. You can argue for both sides but I don't see too many cases for the latter that I agree with.
And it ignores the fact that, you know, he had pitched 2.1 hitless innings with 6K since coming back.
Most people expected a roughly average rotation and a very good bullpen when the season started, and that still seems fair. The bullpen has been ravaged by injuries but there have also been some legit and fair questions about usage along the way. The complete collapse of the back end of the rotation and the underperformance of Price are more surprising, and there is blame to go around between players, coaches, development machine and talent evaluators. It's fair to lean more one way than the other in terms of where you would place the blame, but to respond to the observation that this is a very talented team with "nah, the pitching sucks" is quite reductive. I would say that, on balance, outcomes relative to projections and talent level on the pitching side have been below expectations, and it's fair to ask why.
You're right. It's probably the water that causes pitchers to become worse when they get to Boston - nothing to do with the actual pitching environment, game prep, situational usage, patterns of usage, pitch selection, or coaching in general. They just drink the water and they become "terrible." Many people say so. Sad! Loser third rate pitchers holding Farrell hostage - after he hired the best men!
Robbie Ross
Every team has its sob stories and excuses, though. Every team has some problems where they expected a success (Price, Kimbrel, Tazawa). And every team has some successes where they expected a problem (Wright, Porcello, Barnes).
So after outlining how most of the uninjured, unreliable, and unfamiliar pitchers are pitching well in line with career norms your question is BUT WHO HAS HE MADE BETTER? If your complaint boils down to Farrell not turning mediocrity into studs then I don't know what to tell ya. I just hope you and everyone else hold the next guy to same standard.
I wasn't aware that a huge ERA/FIP gap pointed to underperformance via managerial influence. I thought we called that bad luck. We should notify the SABR community.
There is no planet where David Price and Craig Kimbrel should be considered mediocrities.
Do you have a link to back that up or is it just one of those things the everyone knows. I would assume things like FIP and ERA+ should take something like coaching into account. It would fairly revolutionary if you could correlate that underperformance with coaching.
I wasn't talking about them. Craig Kimbrel has been in gradual decline for a few years now as has been noted in other threads. And David Price could quite possibly be having a down year. Gradual decline and an off year are accepted baseball concepts that happen all the time that usually aren't put at the feet of a manager.
In the post game presser, after talking about Papi, Mookie, etc., a reporter asked "what about the bullpen?" Farrell started off with Buchholz, saying he's pitching Saturday, but moving on very quickly to the other guys that pitched. Sounded like he wanted no part of talking much about Clay. Nobody asked why he didn't let him start another inning. I mean, he never gets taken to task in interviews on NESN. Same ownership as Red Sox is why I guess. I'd like to be a fly on the wall when he talks to DD.
Underperforming their FIP could be a function of Farrell's slow hook for most of this year. I remember many instances of Farrell leaving starters in the game when it was clear that they were done. That means that there'd be a disproportionate number of hitters reaching base when there were already runners on. That kind of clustering would increase ERA/RA well above FIP.
I'm not sure the analytic community has spent enough time with pitch-sequencing using pitchFX to have gotten to any sort of conclusion about marginal value.
- contrast with -
Why would you assume that FIP or ERA+ would be able to account for coaching within their methodology? Coaching is an unmeasured variable in both stats (and in just about all stats, really).
Yes, I don't think it's too much to ask for the manager and pitching coach to help guide their charges to improved performance.
I guess I should have explained my assumption.
Price simply hasn't performed that differently from last year.
I understand the point your making, but it's up to Farrell to harness that performance into wins, by coaching and using Price effectively (e.g., pulling him in a timely manner, all things considered.) One could argue based on FIP that the coaching is adequate (the Pedroia story aside). However we're 11-13 when Price starts, and that's the thing that ultimately matters.
Yes, but the team has lost 5 of those games where he has gone 7+ innings of 3 ER or less (7/2, 8/2, 8/3, 8/3, 8/0). That 11-13 record could very easily be 15-9.
You should read the second paragraph of my post. I agree with you insofar as Farrell isn't the only factor in Price's record (or Porcellos). (But I'm open to the argument that Farrell used intelligent bullpen management in a preponderance of Porcello games.) To say that "luck" redistributes something like 1/4th of the outcomes. . .maybe, but I'd have to see the numbers.
Lovullo's compensation is completely irrelevant in deciding his future with the team
But here you are trying to shift the burden of proof. There's lots of saber evidence that stats like W/L are highly variable and not predictive year to year (many of those data points assuredly involving SP on the same team with the same manager). But then you're also semi-hand-waving and saying "it sure is fishy that the Red Sox are 11-13 in David Price games but 17-6 in Rick Porcello games..." without any supporting numbers (besides the aforementioned variable W/L records).
Speculating he wouldn't get as good a deal with another team, so he may have some incentive to stay on in Boston with a new manager
It's much more likely to be the team's decision than his. And he's getting his Sox money regardless
Now we are complaining that Farrell isn't pitching Buchholz enough???
Who is ultimately responsible for holding the two pitching coaches in uniform, Willis and Bannister, accountable? I ask this seriously.....it is Farrell or Dombrowski? I mean should the onus be on the (asst) coaches who actually work win these pitchers on a day-to-day basis? As far as the health of Kimbrel that is 100% on the medical staff clearing him to pitch.....Farrell isn't the person who makes that decision.
I wouldn't necessarily write third place as the floor. If they lose tonight they'll be closer to NY in 4th than to Baltimore in 1st.
I'm sorry, but having David Price on the mound and 4.9 runs of support per game from the offense, that should produce more than 11 wins out of 24. Even with this bullpen.
Part of the problem is the distribution of that support when you combine an average of about 8 runs per game in the wins and about 2 in the losses with this bullpen this is what happens.
The Red Sox bullpen ranks 9th in the AL in ERA, and 5th in FIP.
I don't hate this post or anything, but saying "his FIP is right in line with career norms at 3.41" obscures the fact that (counting backwards from 2015) his prior years were 2.78, 2.78, 3.03. 3.05. 3.32. He hasn't had a FIP this high since 2010. His K/BB is the worst it's been since 2012, he is giving up more hits and more hard contact than at any point in his career. You can certainly make the case that this year is mostly bad luck and likely to correct, within this season or next, but you can also look and see a guy with declining peripherals showing signs of falling off on the wrong side of 30.
You can add tonight as another game to the list of late-inning shitshows.
I think Farrell should be fired, but there pretty much is nothing any manager can do when literally every single pitcher in the bullpen sucks.
He could, you know, get Ziegler the hell out of there when he's stinking up the joint. Just a thought. His inning started single, K, single, single. He clearly had nothing. Where was the goddamn hook?
But it isn't like he keeps making the same mistake over and over. Ziggs was a godsend his first couple weeks and has been shit since. Barnes saves Kimbrel and the game one night and is the main reason they lose the following night. Abad hasn't gotten anyone out.
Just by removing one shitty pitcher does not equate to outs from the next hypothetical pitcher or did you miss last nights game when every pitcher he brought in took a collective dump on the mound.
Z has a pretty big split and Farrell knew that there were a string of lefties coming up later in the inning. He could have had Abad or Ross warming as soon as the first guy got on - not necessarily with the intent of pulling him right away, but certainly at least in time for Ellsbury should it come to that. But he does not like to play matchups with this 8th inning guy.
