Has anyone else been noticing any differences in Drew's swing? His balance looks off at the plate. Seems like his weight transfer is off - as far as I can tell he's not staying back long enough. Against lefties, I thought it was just him not seeing the ball out of the hand well but in the ALCS and WS so far it looks to me like his timing is just off. I think in the playoffs the Sox have faced a lot of pitchers who've been throwing changeups/breaking balls in fastball counts (Sanchez, Scherzer, Verlander, Wacha) which probably has Drew guessing at the plate and disrupting his timing. I'm not a hitting expert by any means but my advice to him would just be to stay back longer and trust his ability to make contact.
Drew v. 2.0
- Thread starter lambeau
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Napoli taking grounders at third in BP tonight???
How cool would an infield of Nap-X-Pedey-Papi be?
I would never again accuse Farrell of lack of imagination.
How cool would an infield of Nap-X-Pedey-Papi be?
I would never again accuse Farrell of lack of imagination.
triniSox said:
Drew has been doing the classic "cut down the swing to end the slump" move, but his problem right now includes a lot of pitch recognition so it's not helping.
His mechanics look way off with him pressing now. He's gone deep into the count in some at-bats so that's good - maybe he can draw a big walk or two. Against a Cardinals pitching staff with all righty starters, Drew should really have been a weapon at the bottom of the lineup.smastroyin said:
Hadn't thought of that. Still, priority one with first and second and no outs should be like an infield version of the no doubles defense, which means protect the line, or lines. Just the previous inning, Pedey was robbed on a shot down third (it may have gone foul) by Freese being positioned close to the bag. The Cardinals played it right, the Sox didn't.LostinNJ said:
so .. similar to the Salty discussion , how does Drew's post season performance affect his upcoming market value?
He's been putrid at the plate and marvelous in the field. Will any of this change the perception of what kind of player he is?
I say it will .. and it will increase his market value. What's the common perception of Drew ? Good hitter for a SS with possibility of an upside and generally mediocre defence - sure hands but lacking in range .. right?
Well .. he sure has impressed in the field in just about every way you can think of. He has played at an elite fielding SS level.
I tend to think GMs in general tend to use their "Scouts Eye" when evaluating defence .. so sample size is far less important. He is what he appears to be. As for the offence I think they will rationalize the slump as just that ..
I think it just about guarantees that a pretty lucrative long term deal will be available over the winter. Which also pretty much guarantees a QO from the Sox. Although I'm starting to get the impression they'd love to have him back on a one year deal. Given WMB's struggles I could even see a long term offer from the Sox as well .. although that would essentially jettison WMB's Sox career and block Cecchini (?) down the line. I don't think WMB will hit enough to be a fulltime 1B
He's been putrid at the plate and marvelous in the field. Will any of this change the perception of what kind of player he is?
I say it will .. and it will increase his market value. What's the common perception of Drew ? Good hitter for a SS with possibility of an upside and generally mediocre defence - sure hands but lacking in range .. right?
Well .. he sure has impressed in the field in just about every way you can think of. He has played at an elite fielding SS level.
I tend to think GMs in general tend to use their "Scouts Eye" when evaluating defence .. so sample size is far less important. He is what he appears to be. As for the offence I think they will rationalize the slump as just that ..
I think it just about guarantees that a pretty lucrative long term deal will be available over the winter. Which also pretty much guarantees a QO from the Sox. Although I'm starting to get the impression they'd love to have him back on a one year deal. Given WMB's struggles I could even see a long term offer from the Sox as well .. although that would essentially jettison WMB's Sox career and block Cecchini (?) down the line. I don't think WMB will hit enough to be a fulltime 1B
joe dokes said:
Edit: Ignore this post--it's merely a function of dyslexia and the fact that Drew and Ross each have 4 letters in their names. I won't erase what I wrote in the interests of comprehending the incoherence I caused.
Well, he had 116 regular season PAs and has had 31 post season PAs, so ignoring the last three weeks would be throwing out about a sixth of the offensive sample, and while I'm not going to check innings for the season, we appeared in 36 regular season games and has appeared in 7 post-season games which is also a sizable chuck of his total playing time for this year. Or was that supposed to be a rhetorical question?
Reverend said:
Who are you talking about?
:whistling:
I was thinking the same thing as Joe Dokes. The appropriate way to view Drew's postseason is to throw out the offensive offense as a small sample size aberration, while viewing his defense as evidence that he has fully recovered from the ankle injury and remains a top shelf defender. There should be a whole lot of interest in him this offseason. Starting with the other team tonight.
If we are talking about Drew...which it looks like you are...those numbers aren't correct. It should be 442 AB regular season and 50 post season AB's per ESPN...Reverend said:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6298/
I'm not really interested in a long-term deal but the Sox would be really stupid not to give him the QO, given that having him for one more year isn't necessarily a bad thing and they always have the option of dealing him mid-season.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
This is exactly my point .. I think Drew's reputation as a mediocre defender is completely shattered now. And the post season ineptitude at the plate will be viewed as a SSS slumpPlympton91 said:
I think Stephen's take on "JD's Redemption" will be one of the lasting images of this post-season for me. He was brilliant in the field, and finally got a hold of one tonight, and I couldn't be happier for him. I still believe X is the future, but Drew gave us everything we could have asked for this season, in my opinion.Jordu said:
ookami7m said:
The guy in the row behind me spent half an hour before the game started talking about how Drew was going to hit one to our section in right-center. And then he and his buddy went down to get a beer and he missed it when it actually happened (give or take a section).
I think a big difference between Stephen and JD is that Stephen's defense is a lot more conspicuous and flashy, so your typical WEEI listener is more aware of it. That's a big part of the reason that despite that historically awful slump, the crowd never got down on him.
I was so happy to see him hit that homer. I felt bad for the guy who had done nothing but sparkle defensively but couldn't hit the broadside of a barn during the postseason. It was cathartic to see that. He seems like genuinely a really good guy.
A qualifying offer to Drew is a no-brainer, because brining him back on a one year deal is a no-brainer. The question is whether they should make an effort to sign him to a long term deal or or take the pick.
Really depends on how many years and how much money. If his best offer is something like 3/$30M I'm sure the Sox would be interested and just plan to have Bogaerts play 3B. If he gets more than 3 years and more money than the QO would pay him I think they'll walk away from the table.Eddie Jurak said:
Honestly, I think Ellsbury is the guy they're most likely to stretch their budget for. He bring something they can't really replace. Unfortunately the years will chase them away on him, as I don't see them giving out more than a 5 year deal.
Eddie Jurak said:
As much as I agree that a qualifying offer with the possibility of him back on a one year deal is a no-brainer, I think not offering him a long term deal is also a no-brainer. Xander looks like he can handle SS. The Sox also have a no hit/plus defensive SS in AA, which is what Drew is trending to become.
One more year of Drew is fine. Committing $9M a year over 3 of more years is not smart. Take the pick if he is getting multi year offers.
How does this season indicate this at all? I agree that not giving Drew a multi-year deal is the way to go, but he was pretty damn good at the plate this season, and awesome against righties.SaveBooFerriss said:
I'd expect his defense to fall off faster than his offense. When healthy Drew is a good hitting SS. Prior to his prolonged ankle issue he was one of the better offensive SS in baseball, and this season's numbers don't show a BABIP out of line with those seasons with an improvement in walk rate along with a worsened K rate, so the kind of adjustments you'd expect a more experienced hitter to be making.SaveBooFerriss said:
Given the choice between Drew at 3 years, $27M or Drew at 1 year, $14.1M I think I'd take the extra two years at $6.5M per as a bonus. But then I doubt that happens. I think some team will give him multiple years at around the QO amount. Maybe not a lot of years, but something in the 3-5 range. Wouldn't even be shocked if it was St. Louis, who need a SS in the worst possible way.
I've been very consistently for giving Drew a QO and retain that position. It would help retain deep depth and Middlebrooks will not be hurt by more time at AAA given his struggles this year. But, I think it's pretty likely that one of Middlebrooks or Cecchini can provide the team equivalent of better production to Drew in the near future while shifting Bogaerts back to SS, where his value will also be greater. So, I would not be happy with a long term deal for Drew at anything that is not a serious discount which would make him easily tradable. And, I cannot see a good reason why Drew would take a serious discount to sign in Boston unless they were offering a NTC and he really likes Boston.
$27 million over 3 years for Drew is a pipe dream. He was worth over half that amount this year, and I can't see a good reason to think that his performance this year isn't indicative of, roughly, his true talent level. If you throw out 2012 and 2013 as injury impacted, you get a player who has established a pretty clear performance range that this year falls squarely within. I think $40 million is a far more realistic number for Drew over 3 years, or around $50 million over 4 years. And, if the Red Sox needed a long term solution on the left side, I would offer him that. But, the Red Sox don't need, and shouldn't want, a long term commitment to a short stop.
$27 million over 3 years for Drew is a pipe dream. He was worth over half that amount this year, and I can't see a good reason to think that his performance this year isn't indicative of, roughly, his true talent level. If you throw out 2012 and 2013 as injury impacted, you get a player who has established a pretty clear performance range that this year falls squarely within. I think $40 million is a far more realistic number for Drew over 3 years, or around $50 million over 4 years. And, if the Red Sox needed a long term solution on the left side, I would offer him that. But, the Red Sox don't need, and shouldn't want, a long term commitment to a short stop.
I agree completely on what Drew's market will likely actually be, but if by some fluke he does accept the QO and return next season I'd like to see the team consider Middlebrooks in a utility role. He's a good defensive 3B and has already been taking time at 1B and 2B. He's widely considered an exceptional athlete with a damn good arm, I don't see why they couldn't have him start working in the OF corners as well. A utility role would be a great pathway to assure him a spot on the ML roster and pretty consistent ABs.JakeRae said:
ookami7m said:
I did, in the game thread, although I had it as as Cardinals-deflating 3-run shot into the Monster seats in the latter innings. Given his struggles with the bat, he seemed the obvious candidate for one final kick in the nads to Matheny's crew.
For some silly reason, JD's 07 ALCS granny made it feel inevitable that Steve would also hit a bomb at some point. I realize how dumb that sounds.
And even though his shot certainly wasn't as important as his brother's, after all the amazing defense Steve played it was nice to seem him top it off with some pop, off Wacha to boot.
Really loved his play in these playoffs, even if he was totally overmatched for most of his ABs. For all the mistakes Farrell made, Drew made him look smart for sticking it out his offense struggles.
And even though his shot certainly wasn't as important as his brother's, after all the amazing defense Steve played it was nice to seem him top it off with some pop, off Wacha to boot.
Really loved his play in these playoffs, even if he was totally overmatched for most of his ABs. For all the mistakes Farrell made, Drew made him look smart for sticking it out his offense struggles.
Drew's jack was really important. Going off memory from late last night (5 beers), I saw earlier where the win probability went from ~73% to 91% with his HR. His swings looked better the game prior and I felt Drew was going to do something large.
Hee Sox Choi said:
Naw, WP went from like 86 to 91%.
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2013-10-30&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0
Was still nice to see him hit it, though =)
It seems as if Stephen Drew's trouble seeing the ball this postseason,was due to his vision if Boras is to be believed
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo3h
Also from Boras, Stephen Drew went to the eye doctor before Game 6, got some new contact lenses and homered and hit the ball hard 3 times.
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo3h
Also from Boras, Stephen Drew went to the eye doctor before Game 6, got some new contact lenses and homered and hit the ball hard 3 times.
I love Uncle Dirt, but this is just Boras Negotiation 101. Nick has once again been played the fool...soxhop411 said:
I don't think Drew accepting a QO would be so bad. It gives some nice depth on the left side of the infield for the year while the team sorts out Middlebrooks and Bogarts. The Sox also don't have anyone behind Bogarts at SS.
I think Cecchini is being drastically overrated. I don't think he's going to be a good 3Bman and I don't see the Sox playing both him and Bogarts together, so he's not a starting option (and he's not ready anyway). If Middlebrooks flames out the WS lineup with Drew at SS and X at 3B looks pretty good.
That said, I do think Drew leaves for a multi-year offer that the Sox are right to not extend.
I think Cecchini is being drastically overrated. I don't think he's going to be a good 3Bman and I don't see the Sox playing both him and Bogarts together, so he's not a starting option (and he's not ready anyway). If Middlebrooks flames out the WS lineup with Drew at SS and X at 3B looks pretty good.
That said, I do think Drew leaves for a multi-year offer that the Sox are right to not extend.
Drew taking the QO would be an ideal stop gap to be sure. I'm assuming you feel that Cecchini's defense is being overrated? If so I'd agree, but offensively the hype is more than warranted. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets moved to the outfield in the near future. Still, Betts and Coyle will both be blocked by Pedroia long term and both have solid enough defensive reputations to suggest at least the potential to move over to 3B. Both are about 1.5-2 years away assuming they keep hitting, so that is the window they need to fill with Drew, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, etc..OCD SS said:
The QO is obvious. The front office will not regret it one second if he accepts. But that's not the interesting question - which is a long term deal for Drew. If Drew can put up an OPS north of .750 over three years then he's one of the best SSs in baseball. That's obviously a very valuable player. On the other hand we have WMB with Cecchini Plus Betts and Coyle etc coming up behind him.
I think there are serious questions about WMB's long term viability as a quality player. He's a hacker with prodigious power. To my eye his range is mediocre but has good hands. But much of his development has been hampered with poor health. I think the jury is still out on him.
As for Cecchini .. The question is defence from all accounts .. Betts is intriguing but the only defensive problem I read related to his arm strength .. Which would seem to preclude 3b. Coyle ? He's a long shot at best.
So which is a better team for the next three years ..Drew at SS and X at 3b with WMB backing up .. WMB platoons with Drew in some situations. And backs up third, first and more than likely second. (Could be difficult to have another utility infielder ). Unfortunately this probably precludes any long term thought of X as a SS.
Or
WMB at third and X at SS .. They would have to get another backup for next year.
If the FO believes in WMB as a solid regular then they let Drew go (with the QO of course) .. I think the extra pick will be the tipping point. If not, Drew gets a fair long term offer .. Probably three years .. Which he will take if its reasonable as the QO will probably suppress the number of offers he gets on the open market.
I think there are serious questions about WMB's long term viability as a quality player. He's a hacker with prodigious power. To my eye his range is mediocre but has good hands. But much of his development has been hampered with poor health. I think the jury is still out on him.
As for Cecchini .. The question is defence from all accounts .. Betts is intriguing but the only defensive problem I read related to his arm strength .. Which would seem to preclude 3b. Coyle ? He's a long shot at best.
So which is a better team for the next three years ..Drew at SS and X at 3b with WMB backing up .. WMB platoons with Drew in some situations. And backs up third, first and more than likely second. (Could be difficult to have another utility infielder ). Unfortunately this probably precludes any long term thought of X as a SS.
Or
WMB at third and X at SS .. They would have to get another backup for next year.
If the FO believes in WMB as a solid regular then they let Drew go (with the QO of course) .. I think the extra pick will be the tipping point. If not, Drew gets a fair long term offer .. Probably three years .. Which he will take if its reasonable as the QO will probably suppress the number of offers he gets on the open market.
Drek717 said:
I tend to think that part of what we're seeing with GC is his advanced approach allowing him to dominate lower levels, but expect things to get harder quicker as he moves up the ladder (I believe this is the Jason parks school of thought). If he moves to LF (which I could see given organizational depth/ need) I think he'll only be a 50/ 55 bat at the position, and it also renders him moot as any sort of factor in the IF discussion...
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Betts was horrible as a SS, and took off as a 2B, he's likely staying on the right side. I think Coyle has similar arm strength issues, which leads to the same conclusion.
I think WMB has the tools to be at least a 60 defender at 3B (he looked much better last year, so it should be possible), so the real question is will a team that has tried to build around defense go with WMB & X, with no back up? As much as I'd like to see the kids play and succeed, it seems unlikely. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to keep Drew around for a few more years. In that scenario X gets comped to Machado for the foreseeable future.
As far as the arm strength conversation goes, I would not take the fact that a player does not have adequate arm strength to play short as a sign that they cannot play third. Short requires more arm strength than third. I don't know whether Betts or Coyle have the right skills for third, but I also don't have enough information to throw out the possibility. I also have not read any scouting reports that address either player's ability to play third, so I think that is very much an unknown unless we have someone who has the scouting skills to make that judgment and has seen them play who wants to proffer an opinion.
That is because neither of them has played an inning at 3B AFAICT. When they were both at Salem neither one was shifted to 3B to get them in the field, even when Cecchini would've had a day off.
Don't you think that that (along with both of them still only being in the Carolina league) points to them not being anything to plan on for 3B?
Don't you think that that (along with both of them still only being in the Carolina league) points to them not being anything to plan on for 3B?
nattysez said:
I don't even think Mr. Boras expects that.
I do expect him to do better than 3/$29. Since it will be the last big deal of his career, he should be focusing on the total payout.
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