#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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njnesportsfan

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What are the odds that NFL blows up because of this and NEP becomes the last Champion of the League we used to know? 0.01%, over or under?
 

E5 Yaz

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njnesportsfan said:
What are the odds that NFL blows up because of this and NEP becomes the last Champion of the League we used to know? 0.01%, over or under?
 
Less than the odds that this is the stupidest post in any of the deflategate threads
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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dcmissle said:
TB's most likely path to even complete victory lies through two trails that are technical. 1. General awareness does not constitute a violation 2. He did not really impede the investigation by refusing to surrender cell records.

Most lawyers -- and Kessler is a good one - - focus on the most solid and direct paths to victory. Judges like to decide cases that way too.

A victory along these lines I will take. It would not do a lot to change the opinion of TB.
 
Brady's reputation will rebound in the long run but vindication or the righting of wrongs is largely a lost cause in the short term.
 
The only real path forward for the Patriots is to crush the league while running up the score at every opportunity, celebrate every TD with a faux ball-deflation dance, win the fifth Super Bowl, and then join together in a Shaq-inspired "Tell me how my ass tastes" serenade of Goodell during the trophy ceremony.
 

Jettisoned

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njnesportsfan said:
What are the odds that NFL blows up because of this and NEP becomes the last Champion of the League we used to know? 0.01%, over or under?
 
If the chance was 0% I'd still take the under...
 

lexrageorge

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dcmissle said:
TB's most likely path to even complete victory lies through two trails that are technical. 1. General awareness does not constitute a violation 2. He did not really impede the investigation by refusing to surrender cell records.

Most lawyers -- and Kessler is a good one - - focus on the most solid and direct paths to victory. Judges like to decide cases that way too.

A victory along these lines I will take. It would not do a lot to change the opinion of TB.
I would tend to think that Brady's first priority will be to get the suspension removed.  This seems to be the path that Kessler is going down as well.  I'm still reasonably confident that it will get removed one way or another.
 
There is only one thing that will change people's opinion of Tom Brady:  time.  As time goes by, most people tend to look at these things in more rational lenses.  5 years after his retirement, most fans will agree that Brady was a pretty good QB over his career.  Most will either think Brady was innocent, or that, if guilty, it was so minor to be meaningless.  Even most media blowhards moderate over time.  Some of the louder ones will still bang the "cheating" drum, but I'm thinking that they'll be in the minority by then.  Brady has always been friendly to the media, most other players and coaches respect him, and he generally avoids stepping into the stupid situations that derail other celebrity athletes.  All those points will go a long way with the media.  I'm not too worried about those ESPN public opinion polls; they are not scientific, unlikely to be representative, and likely biased in their questions.  
 
The Pats image, especially of Kraft/Belichick, is a far more difficult problem to correct.  Goodell really fucked the team on that front, and the fact that the local media asshats hate BB because he really is smarter than they are doesn't help. 
 

njnesportsfan

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Less than the odds that this is the stupidest post in any of the deflategate threads
Over confidence, my friend?
Similar questions were asked prior to WWI and also prior to the financial crisis. If you asked in 2006 what the odds were Lehman would bankrupt in 2 years, the answer would have been "less than zero".
 

RIFan

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njnesportsfan said:
What are the odds that NFL blows up because of this and NEP becomes the last Champion of the League we used to know? 0.01%, over or under?
The odds of this are less than the odds of the NFL putting an expansion team on Mars in the next 5 years.
 

Bosoxen

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There is no Rev said:
One of the striking things about this situation, to me anyway, is that the Patriots could be guilty but the NFL still out of line. There doesn't seem to be enough consideration of that.
 
This is where I've stood on this situation from Day One. Here's my take on the whole thing:
 
I think Brady and McNally colluded to do this thing (or maybe Brady and Jastremski, with McNally protecting himself with the Nuremberg defense). Frankly, it doesn't square with me that Brady would lobby to have control of his footballs and then not know what happens with them. But holy shit, did it get blown out of proportion. The media and league mishandled it horribly, to put it lightly, and the team thumbed their nose at the league - I think yep is right that Kraft's conference was the gauntlet that invited the league to come at them full force. The whole thing was a giant clusterfuck and an offense that should have resulted in a slap on the wrist wound up ballooning into this nonsense.
 
Reasonable minds can disagree, but I don't see why the Patriots' guilt and the league's misconduct have to be mutually exclusive.
 

DJnVa

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njnesportsfan said:
Over confidence, my friend?
Similar questions were asked prior to WWI and also prior to the financial crisis. If you asked in 2006 what the odds were Lehman would bankrupt in 2 years, the answer would have been "less than zero".
 
First off, I don't recall you posting in the "WTF happened to the Archduke?" thread back then.
 
And anyway, let's play.
 
I'll give you the "NFL dissolves" side...what odds would you need?
 

E5 Yaz

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norm from cheers said:
I can't help but keep wondering if all this would have never happened if TB didn't toss out the comment directed at Harbaugh about knowing the rules..
 
If we're looking for the lynchpin, this might be one of the prime contenders
 

DJnVa

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norm from cheers said:
I can't help but keep wondering if all this would have never happened if TB didn't toss out the comment directed at Harbaugh about knowing the rules..
 
Or if the NFL had simply corrected Mortensen's tweet.
 
 

epraz

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njnesportsfan said:
Over confidence, my friend?
Similar questions were asked prior to WWI and also prior to the financial crisis. If you asked in 2006 what the odds were Lehman would bankrupt in 2 years, the answer would have been "less than zero".
 
I would really like to hear what you're thinking of, in terms of a series of events that lead to there not being an NFL by next February.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Have you ever talked to real M.D. about how they feel about the medincine parts of a network hospital or medical drama?
 
That's kind of the way lawyers feel when they hear Lester Munson.
 

naclone

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norm from cheers said:
I can't help but keep wondering if all this would have never happened if TB didn't toss out the comment directed at Harbaugh about knowing the rules..
I've thought about this an awful lot too, and to be honest, this is precisely why Belichick never says anything interesting in press conferences and mandates that none of his players speak candidly either. This right here is potentially the worst case scenario of not sticking to the script. I know it felt really really good to Tom when he said it but i bet more than once over the last couple weeks he wished he had said "it is what it is" instead.
 

E5 Yaz

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epraz said:
 
I would really like to hear what you're thinking of, in terms of a series of events that lead to there not being an NFL by next February.
 
We'll need KFP to do the outline
 

joe dokes

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Have you ever talked to real M.D. about how they feel about the medincine parts of a network hospital or medical drama?
 
That's kind of the way lawyers feel when they hear Lester Munson.
 
He's like Dr. Phil.
or Nancy Grace.
 

ivanvamp

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Brady's reputation will rebound in the long run 
 
I agree.  I mean, I hope you're right.  Brady, until this moment, has an absolutely impeccable reputation.  Had, I should say.  As in, nothing EVER was attributed to him as being sinister or bad or anything.  I guess being associated with Belichick (who isn't liked) impacts him, but basically, one of the NFL's good guys.
 
Ray Lewis is well-liked.  Dude was involved in a murder.  
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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Manish Mehta desrves to have some really embarrassing shit about him come to light and splayed all over the back page of the Herald.
 
He's Shaughnessy-lite.  Isn't that punishment enough?  To be a sportswriter troll, but not even a good one?
 

joe dokes

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RIFan said:
The odds of this are less than the odds of the NFL putting an expansion team on Mars in the next 5 years.
 
"With the only pick I'm letting them have in the 2019 NFL draft, the Aeolis Palus Patriots select . . . . "
 

Reverend

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ivanvamp said:
 
I agree.  I mean, I hope you're right.  Brady, until this moment, has an absolutely impeccable reputation.  Had, I should say.  As in, nothing EVER was attributed to him as being sinister or bad or anything.  I guess being associated with Belichick (who isn't liked) impacts him, but basically, one of the NFL's good guys.
 
Ray Lewis is well-liked.  Dude was involved in a murder.  
 
In much of the country, Brady has long been seen as the pretty boy socialite who knocked up his actress girl friend before moving on to something hotter, an image brought into high relief by his juxtaposition to Peyton who married his college girl friend and raised a family.
 
I think it's bullshit on several levels, but that's the narrative believed by many reasonable and reasonably informed people.
 

lambeau

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Maybe this is obvious, but ESPN reports Goodell looks forward to interviewing eveybody himself--Brady, McNally, Jastremski; seems awfully likely Kessler will go to court to prevent this.
 

DegenerateSoxFan

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joe dokes said:
He's like Dr. Phil.
or Nancy Grace.
Not to stray too far off topic, but Nancy Grace is in a class by herself. She was an unethical scumbag as a prosecutor and even worse as a TV personality. She has the morals of a weasel on speed. Munson is a bleating moron, but Grace is truly evil.
 

RG33

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Jinhocho said:
Typing this from the car. Ryan blamed bb for spygate and creating an arrogant push the envelope culture that defines the patriots. Said be no big deal if others but it is because of the pats cheating and arrogance that they are held to a different standard. brought up dansby and said how its always something w this team. Said Brady definitely guilty and knows it. Caught w hand in cookie jar and lied now stuck playing hand. Said TB lied about McNally.
Ryan's stance on this is strange being that he idolized Red Auerbach who created an arrogant push the envelope culture that defined the Boston Celtics for 3 decades.
 

E5 Yaz

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RGREELEY33 said:
Ryan's stance on this is strange being that he idolized Red Auerbach who created an arrogant push the envelope culture that defined the Boston Celtics for 3 decades.
 
That's a great question I'd love to see Ryan answer.
 

AB in DC

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DrewDawg said:
 
Or if the NFL had simply corrected Mortensen's tweet.
 
 
The worst part is that the NFL didn't have to "correct" Mort's tweet.  All they needed to say was "Mort's statement was inaccurate" and leave it at that.
 

djbayko

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lambeau said:
Maybe this is obvious, but ESPN reports Goodell looks forward to interviewing eveybody himself--Brady, McNally, Jastremski; seems awfully likely Kessler will go to court to prevent this.
Yeah, IANAL, but that doesn't even follow straight logic. The league sanctioned the Wells investigstion. The league handed down punishment based on the Wells Report (and further legitimized the investigstion in doing so). Brady is appealing the punishment based on the contents of the Wells report.

What possible grounds does he have to investigate further, barring Brady's lawyers opening certain doors?
 

RG33

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Only to add some further context on Jim McNally, I spoke with my boss about an hour ago and we were chatting about the story. He actually grew up with McNally and was buddies with him in high school. He hasn't talked to him in 20 years, but said "he is an awesome guy, everyone loves him, and he's one of the funniest fucks I've ever met. Total New England knucklehead who can bullshit sports all day long and who would bust the balls of everybody that walked in the room."

Not that any of this means anything relating to deflategate, but he said none of the text messages surprised him and it was all typical McNally bullshitting and weirdness.
 

lexrageorge

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njnesportsfan said:
What are the odds that NFL blows up because of this and NEP becomes the last Champion of the League we used to know? 0.01%, over or under?
Not that I'm looking forward to engaging on this topic.  However, from everything I learn about Goodell, he certainly has the ability to screw up the league over the long term.  As in over the next couple of decades, especially if his successor comes from one of the folks that he is currently mentoring/grooming.  This incident will be one brick in the wall, but only one of many. 
 
 
E5 Yaz said:
 
That's a great question I'd love to see Ryan answer.
 
Yes, when Aurebach turned off the AC in the visitor's locker room, Ryan called it gamesmanship.  Belichick runs a legal play from a legal formation in the playoff game against Baltimore, and Ryan and Shank call it dubious and borderline cheating. 
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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E5 Yaz said:
 
We'll need KFP to do the outline
 
I. Slap E5 in the dick
        A. Trouble finding his little dick
                        i. Irish
                        ii. Hidden under mountain of pubes
        B. History of E5 dick slaps
II. E5 dick slap consequences
        A. None
        B. Why it's worth it
 

Leather

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MentalDisabldLst said:
 
He's Shaughnessy-lite.  Isn't that punishment enough?  To be a sportswriter troll, but not even a good one?
 
I suppose it is, to a certain degree.
 
Honestly:  I wouldn't want his job.   I'd love to be a legit sportswriter, or even a semi-legit one (which is what most are, in this day and age), but he's a basically a Jets rodeo clown.
 

joe dokes

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djbayko said:
Yeah, IANAL, but that doesn't even follow straight logic. The league sanctioned the Wells investigstion. The league handed down punishment based on the Wells Report (and further legitimized the investigstion in doing so). Brady is appealing the punishment based on the contents of the Wells report.

What possible grounds does he have to investigate further, barring Brady's lawyers opening certain doors?
 
Most appeals don't involve using or gathering new evidence.  (There may be some procedural thing with this stuff I'm unfamiliar with).  So just as Goodell can't get new interviews, Brady can't suddenly say, "Hey, these things on my phone that I wouldn't let you see actually prove me innocent.
 

garzooma

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RGREELEY33 said:
Only to add some further context on Jim McNally, I spoke with my boss about an hour ago and we were chatting about the story. He actually grew up with McNally and was buddies with him in high school. He hasn't talked to him in 20 years, but said "he is an awesome guy, everyone loves him, and he's one of the funniest fucks I've ever met. Total New England knucklehead who can bullshit sports all day long and who would bust the balls of everybody that walked in the room."

Not that any of this means anything relating to deflategate, but he said none of the text messages surprised him and it was all typical McNally bullshitting and weirdness.
 
Thanks for posting this.  One thing from the rebuttal that stands out to me:
 
 
The first of Mr. McNally’s interviews happened the evening of the AFC Championship, when Mr. McNally volunteered to stay at the stadium for an interview since he would not be back for his game-day responsibilities until August.  Patriots management had not yet been advised that an investigation had started, but Mr. McNally, having nothing to hide, talked freely to the League personnel without even asking if someone from the team should be there with him.  The second and third interviews happened within the next several days.  Again, Mr. McNally gave these interviews without any Patriots representative with him.
None of this looks to me like someone who has done anything wrong.  I do hope we hear from him at some point.  The lawyers might be afraid of what he'd say, but he's already been set upon by Goodell's hounds without coaching from the Patriots and nothing bad came out.
 

ObstructedView

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E5 Yaz said:
 
That's a great question I'd love to see Ryan answer.
Easy answer: Red was a bit of a raconteur and provided him with a lot of access starting early in his reporting career. BB generally comes across as a curmudgeon and doesn't make an effort to give good quotes or buddy up with reporters. Ryan does give BB credit in his book (which I happen to be reading at the moment) for being great when he can decompress and focus on real football topics, especially the history of the game, but he also chastises him for being the "smartest kid in the class" and being disingenuous about his actions and motives. It's basically a microcosm of how a lot of sports media types seem to regard him.
 

Average Reds

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lambeau said:
Maybe this is obvious, but ESPN reports Goodell looks forward to interviewing eveybody himself--Brady, McNally, Jastremski; seems awfully likely Kessler will go to court to prevent this.
 
If these people are part of Brady's case, there is no way to stop Goodell from questioning them during the appeal.  Brady/Kessler will then go to court to contest the ruling.  (Unless Roger vacates his suspension, which is slightly more likely than the NFL dissolving within the next year.)
 
Edit:  It may be improper or even illogical, but that's life in Roger's Kingdom.
 

joe dokes

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Average Reds said:
 
I'm uncertain if you understand the process.
 
If these people are part of Brady's case, there is no possible way to stop it during the appeal.  Brady/Kessler will then go to court to contest the ruling.  (Unless Roger vacates his suspension, which is slightly more likely than the NFL dissolving within the next year.)
 
My previous posts on appeals completely forgot Goodell's role. If "interview" means "question during the hearing," then of course he will; he's the judge!  I was talking about before the hearing, like more investigating.  *That's* probably out of bounds.
 

lambeau

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If Roger plans to interviiew McNally, that would seem a tipoff that he's doubling down, and does not intend to mollify TB with a penalty reduction, but rather intemds to bolster his case for discipline--a show trial.
So it seems Kessler needs to prevent this appeal hearing from being held. on the grounds that it's a set-up--whatver the legal language would be.
 

dcmissle

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lambeau said:
Maybe this is obvious, but ESPN reports Goodell looks forward to interviewing eveybody himself--Brady, McNally, Jastremski; seems awfully likely Kessler will go to court to prevent this.
He can't blow the Commissioner off, and he won't try. Kessler is too smart. The documents say what they say, and none of the relevant documents confers a right to a neutral tribunal. The NFLPA is substantially responsible for this.

In order to understand the Goodell stage of this, it helps to understand the MLB Commissioner's best-interest-of-the-game powers, which Goodell does not have but claims anyway. In the NFL's view, precedents do not matter. Fundamental principles of fairness do not matter -- which is why he claimed the right to discipline Ray Rice twice and AP retroactively. Now much to his chagrin, there IS some law here, which is why Goodell was reversed in both cases, but the NFL does not care.

So the process before Goodell will likely consist of a sit-down. He will hail all the relevant people to his office like a old style Mob boss. He will "interview" these people, allow written submissions, say he has read the documents underlying the Wells Report ( but he won't), then issue his decision. That likely is it. Kessler will then move to vacate the decision in court, and meaningful process and advocacy will begin.

Oh, and wait till he subjects TB to the NFL's version of a perp walk, by hailing him to the NFL's Park Avenue office, before which there will be at least 100 reporters with their mics and film crews.
"Who is the boss now?"

Only through a rare moment of decency will TB be able to avoid this.
 

DJnVa

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Here's a good point from Steph Stradley:
 


In his phone presser, Wells makes a big deal about the text messages being direct evidence versus circumstantial evidence, which is an oddly defensive, incorrect point.
 
Circumstantial evidence can be good evidence, and there is certainly some text message evidence that does not look on its face as being positive for the Patriots. That said, the text messages are circumstantial evidence because there are more than one interpretation of these statements. 
 
Direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion without an intervening inference. Wells in his presser and in the report makes all sorts of inferences about the text messages, and that is a primary reason why he wanted another interview with lockerroom attendant, Jim McNally. To see what he meant by that text.
 
If you need to find out what the messages meant, is it really "direct evidence"?
 
http://abovethelaw.com/2015/05/should-tom-brady-sue-the-nfl-and-roger-goodell-a-deflategate-email-exchange/
 

dcmissle

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ObstructedView said:
Easy answer: Red was a bit of a raconteur and provided him with a lot of access starting early in his reporting career. BB generally comes across as a curmudgeon and doesn't make an effort to give good quotes or buddy up with reporters. Ryan does give BB credit in his book (which I happen to be reading at the moment) for being great when he can decompress and focus on real football topics, especially the history of the game, but he also chastises him for being the "smartest kid in the class" and being disingenuous about his actions and motives. It's basically a microcosm of how a lot of sports media types seem to regard him.
Access ... Ding-ding-ding

If BB were a Jeff Fisher media whore (Fisher has no titles) most of our problems would disappear.
 

riboflav

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Helmet Head said:
I generally really like Bob Ryan.  That being said, Ryan is big on picking the scab of spygate.  I have heard him a few times the last couple years before any of this even happened.  He does not care for how spygate went down and how people have seemingly forgot about it around here.  He doesn't care for BB and never has.   The fact that he is burying him now is not shocking.   Everyone has an agenda.
 
You would think for a guy who worships at the altar of Red Auerbach, he would love Bill Belicheat
 

SeoulSoxFan

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There is no Rev said:
I just realized I'm enjoying this. It's like finding out pro wrestling is real.
 
It's been like this for days now.
 
Once the Wells report came out, there's nothing the mediots, former players & has-beens & never-weres (I'm looking at you, Chris Simms & Tim Hasselbeck), and certainly Pats-hating fans can say that'll undermine what I think happened.
 
Plus, Vincent & Goodell stepping on their own sh*t have been giving me extra giggles daily.
 

E5 Yaz

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
I. Slap E5 in the dick
        A. Trouble finding his little dick
                        i. Irish
                        ii. Hidden under mountain of pubes
        B. History of E5 dick slaps
II. E5 dick slap consequences
        A. None
        B. Why it's worth it
 
Who told you ... I was Irish?