If its less than 2 runs by the time the 9th rolls around, what realistic chance is there that Barnes hasn't already pitched?I think we’ll see Barnes close a game tonight if it’s less than 2 run lead in the 9th. Will Eovaldi be available tonight for an inning?
And both looked pretty shaky in Game 1 ALDS. Cora stuck with them and I’m glad he did. Brasier got 5 big outs last night.All the Red Sox bullpen pitchers have faced "some pretty high octane offenses" this postseason, like Brasier and Barnes, who have ERA's of 0.00 facing said high octane offenses....
Good stuff. Is a first-half/second-half split on that stat available? Some occasional flashes but it seems like Kimbrel hasn't really been himself since about mid-season on (very light duty in June leading up to ASG and his request not to pitch in the ASG).They may have been strikes, but that's only because batters are chasing. He barely threw 1 of 3 pitches in the strike zone this season.View attachment 24035
So if the Sox have a 3 run lead in the close out game tonight, you're going with Workman, Edro, and Hembree to bring us home?If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.
If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
If I am Hubie Brown, I am hoping that I don't have to pitch any of those guys. But with a day off tomorrow and a shot to close out the Series I am not deciding who's not pitching (other than Porcello) at noon.If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.
If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
Exactly. If they have a chance to close out this series tonight, Cora will absolutely go for the throat. Everyone would get tomorrow off anyway.So if the Sox have a 3 run lead in the close out game tonight, you're going with Workman, Edro, and Hembree to bring us home?
No chance in hell.
This seemed incredibly obvious to me watching live and was nice hearing Pedro say it since he knows approximately 5383y248y283y423 times more than I do about pitching. Kimbrel's halfway through his delivery before he picks up the glove. Would be interesting to see some video from earlier in the year to see what he was doing then. Seems like a pretty easy fix if so.In the after game commentary, Pedro said that Kimbrel was looking at his target too late, which is why his control has been so wild. Sounds plausible to me.
If this is true why didn't pedro--in his special advisory role--reach out and help him make this fix in august?This seemed incredibly obvious to me watching live and was nice hearing Pedro say it since he knows approximately 5383y248y283y423 times more than I do about pitching. Kimbrel's halfway through his delivery before he picks up the glove. Would be interesting to see some video from earlier in the year to see what he was doing then. Seems like a pretty easy fix if so.
If you have an opportunity to kill the enemy, you take itI see your point. But I don't see Price going more than 4 on 3 days rest after warming up last night. We need to cover 4-5 IPs tonight and live to tell the tale. Even if its still close in the 5th, I think it has to be Workman or Hembree next out of the box for a couple. We can see where we are at that stage but I think Edro is the move from there in a tight game. If it is not, I maybe have Hembree plus Workman finish the game even if they are getting shelled, saving Edro for Fenway too.
You cant go back to Fenway with another starter (Sale) potentially slated for a 3 IP start and a bullpen that is completely gassed.
Innings pitched in last 5 days: Brasier 4.2, Kelly, 4, Barnes 3.2. Are these guys exhausted really better than a rested Hembree/Workman?
Cora has to consider that they will need EdRo for a game 6, either for a short Sale start or no Sale start at all. So I think the only way we see him is in a blowout win.I see your point. But I don't see Price going more than 4 on 3 days rest after warming up last night. We need to cover 4-5 IPs tonight and live to tell the tale. Even if its still close in the 5th, I think it has to be Workman or Hembree next out of the box for a couple. We can see where we are at that stage but I think Edro is the move from there in a tight game. If it is not, I maybe have Hembree plus Workman finish the game even if they are getting shelled, saving Edro for Fenway too.
You cant go back to Fenway with another starter (Sale) potentially slated for a 3 IP start and a bullpen that is completely gassed.
Innings pitched in last 5 days: Brasier 4.2, Kelly, 4, Barnes 3.2. Are these guys exhausted really better than a rested Hembree/Workman?
Just last night. Bottom of the 8th, 8-6 game, runner at third, two out, one run in, Marwin Gonzalez up. 1-2 count, Kimbrel throws a curve and Gonzalez swings right over it and strikes out to end the threat.Maybe this is selective memory, but since the playoffs started, I don't think I've seen anyone swing at a breaking ball. He does occasionally get them over for a called strike but the majority miss. So, hitters are just geared up for the inevitable fastball and with his current command it is likely to drift to the center of the plate.
We've been extremely lucky that no damage has been done but it's only a matter of time before someone squares something up and the BABIP gods don't look favorably on us.
Not quite nobody, but it's true, and an interesting point, that the swing percentage on his curve has been notably down in the playoffs compared to the rest of the year. That may be the book on him now: ignore the breaking pitch because he can't get it over (though ironically, if you look at his zone maps, his percentage of curveballs in the strike zone is actually slightly up in October...but the ones that are out are tending to be way, way out).Maybe this is selective memory, but since the playoffs started, I don't think I've seen anyone swing at a breaking ball.
An alternative explanation for the observed data is that he can't command the fastball for shit, so he is constantly falling behind, and in 2-0, 2-1, and 3-1 counts hitters are happy to sit on the fastball and take breaking pitches unless they're hanging meatballs.Not quite nobody, but it's true, and an interesting point, that the swing percentage on his curve has been notably down in the playoffs compared to the rest of the year. That may be the book on him now: ignore the breaking pitch because he can't get it over (though ironically, if you look at his zone maps, his percentage of curveballs in the strike zone is actually slightly up in October...but the ones that are out are tending to be way, way out).
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I'm on board with the picking up the target late crowd. You can't reliably hit a target if you don't look at it and know where to throw the ball.
I don't want the Sox to resign him unless his market craters due to his performance these past couple of weeks, thereby ensuring he'd be a relative discount. But even if he were lights out during the entire playoffs and rightfully commanding top dollar once he hit the market, I still wouldn't want the Sox to resign him because aside from a select few cases, I think paying tons of money on your closer is a misallocation of resources.I get that this is a SSS, but how (if at all) does this retched performance affect his market value going forward for a new contract? Would you be reluctant to give him boffo closer $$ numbers based on this postseason performance (assuming it doesn't improve dramatically)?
Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.An alternative explanation for the observed data is that he can't command the fastball for shit, so he is constantly falling behind, and in 2-0, 2-1, and 3-1 counts hitters are happy to sit on the fastball and take breaking pitches unless they're hanging meatballs.
If Kimbrel was getting ahead in the count, he'd probably be getting a lot more swings on his breaking pitches.
Same. Mostly because Pedro said it. I also wondered last night why does he wait so long before zeroing in on the target. It's probably a mix of things. It is hella tough to watch no matter what the problem is.I'm on board with the picking up the target late crowd. You can't reliably hit a target if you don't look at it and know where to throw the ball.
More curves are the staff's plan of attack against the Astors.Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.
Same thing in the final game of the ALDS: he faced 7 hitters and threw a first-pitch curve to 6 of them.
He's getting behind by throwing curves that hitters don't bite on. Then when he tries to catch up, he misses with the fastball as well, and gets further behind or walks people. For whatever reason, that's his preferred pattern right now.
How come (re: Barnes)? He only threw 5 pitches and he looked the best out of Brasier, Kimbrel, and himself.If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.
If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
Interesting. I guess what it shows is that pitching “backwards” only works if you can consistently throw the breaking pitch for strikes early in the count. Otherwise a smart patient team will put you in bad spots.Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.
Same thing in the final game of the ALDS: he faced 7 hitters and threw a first-pitch curve to 6 of them.
He's getting behind by throwing curves that hitters don't bite on. Then when he tries to catch up, he misses with the fastball as well, and gets further behind or walks people. For whatever reason, that's his preferred pattern right now.
That’s what I was thinking (Kimbrel has been doing this for a long time and others, maybe including his wife have told him it’s very different). But, hearing it from Pedro, an all time great and maybe good pitcher-whisperer too, might be the 2x4 upside the mule’s head type thing he needs. Maybe he’ll get new confidence along with and stop making scatter charts the size of my fireplace. Please?I hope Pedro is right, but I don't know.
A few days ago, Kimbrel was missing with his fastball down and in to the lefty side, last night it was a lot of up and in to the righty side. And those breaking balls all seem just tortured -- like he is squeezing the piss out of the ball.
I think it is in his head.
FWIW, Kimbrel has been given a very long leash, and if he is sent out there again and looks terrible, Cora clearly knows enough at this point to yank him quickly. Maybe he will get it out of his system and start painting again soon.
Hopefully, we'll have a vastly different plan for the Vanderbilts. Their train of thought will take the current plan into account and will punch our ticket home if we don't alter it.More curves are the staff's plan of attack against the Astors.
Didn’t he pitch like one inning last October?Also something to remember is he was a disaster last year in October also. Between the last two postseason's he has a WHIP well over two plus 3 HBP. Maybe this is a mixture of mechanics and just not being able to focus under pressure.
Two, actually. A scoreless 8th in game 2 (Astros won 8-2) and the ninth in game 4, giving up a run on three hits putting the Sox down by two. They scored one in the bottom of the ninth to lose 5-4.Didn’t he pitch like one inning last October?
Agreed. I was actually thinking I'd prefer to give Barnes a shot (although he is a FA to),I don't want the Sox to resign him unless his market craters due to his performance these past couple of weeks, thereby ensuring he'd be a relative discount. But even if he were lights out during the entire playoffs and rightfully commanding top dollar once he hit the market, I still wouldn't want the Sox to resign him because aside from a select few cases, I think paying tons of money on your closer is a misallocation of resources.
Barnes isn't a free agent until 2022.Agreed. I was actually thinking I'd prefer to give Barnes a shot (although he is a FA to),
My bad. Misread the chart hereBarnes isn't a free agent until 2022.
Shocked?I'll be shocked if he does - when Houston's closer struggled last year in the postseason they went away from him, and it worked - Cora was bench coach on that team.... Kimbrel not only had no command last night, but when he did get it over they hit 3 line drives off him (as well as some easy fly balls admittedly). You want to put in a guy who is walking and beaning batters constantly, and who is now also getting hit hard on 97 mph pitches over the middle of the plate, in a 1 run game? Because I don't want Cora to do that....
Will also point out that 35 pitches is the most he has thrown in one appearance this season. He also had another 10~ games this season he threw 25+ pitches in an outing, but only twice after such an outing did Cora use him the next day....