Craig Kimbrel: Dominant Closer

Koufax

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I heard it being replayed late yesterday. Yes, that was cool.
 

EdRalphRomero

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I can't believe I am typing these words, but after reading Rob Bradford's article I really think the Red Sox should consider signing Eric Gagne... to a special adviser type role.

He obviously knows a lot about pitching, and it sounds like he might have a bit of an obsession about finding pitch tipping. I'll say up front, we really have no idea what the Red Sox staffing on these types of issues might be. Maybe they have a full-time self-scout looking to identify these types of things. On the other hand, nobody seems to have caught this until Gagne did. Seems like a good use of money to make Gagne an adviser and tell him to watch for pitch tipping on the Red Sox and on opponents. Tell him he gets a spot on the duckboats.
 

BroodsSexton

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anyone have the inclination to line up the videos and see if we can see what Gagne saw, i.e., the different angle of the glove? This is a cool story. I love the idea that Gagne and Cora used to sit around trying to find pitchers tipping their pitches. Team sport.
 

DJnVa

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jayhoz

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Did anyone catch the Cora interview on eei on Friday? If it is being mentioned elsewhere, please let me know where because I would love to see the discussion. Anyway, Cora said he made a point of looking at the Astros dugout when Kimbrel started pitching to see if they had any reaction to the change he made. Sure enough, he said when he started to get into position they all started looking at each other in a wtf manner. I think that is such a cool little story.
12:30 for the relevant audio.

https://weei.radio.com/media/audio-channel/omf-alex-cora-dodgers-or-brewers-either-way-well-be-ready
 

BroodsSexton

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Pretty efficient last night: 13 pitches, 10 strikes, 2 Ks and a groundout. No base runners.

I guess he really was tipping. Amazing to fix him just like that after several rocky appearances.

One interesting note: apparently both the Yankees and the Astros picked up his tell (no?). Or does word get around among opponents when there’s something out there?
 

SouthernBoSox

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You know, I wonder if there's a potential placebo effect of telling a struggling pitcher that he's been tipping pitches and 'fixing' him.
I think there is definately a mental component to a pitcher thinking "okay I fixed the problem."

The flip side of that argument is the swing and misses is now procuring. I mean its night and day stuff. He now feels like he can beat with fastball velocity, because they don't know what's coming, rather than having to paint.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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And second and third pitch strikes.

Even after he was “fixed” before Game 5 in Houston, he still walked a man on four pitches due to fastball control issues
Was it control issues or simply pitching carefully to the one guy in the Astros lineup who'd been putting bat to ball consistently that night (2 for 3 with a double)? In retrospect, it seemed consistent with the strategy they took with the Astros throughout the series...the notion of it being better to walk a guy than give up an extra base hit.
 

Saints Rest

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Regarding the bolded - for this reason I was happy to see Kimbrel in there last night even with the four-run lead.
+1. With planned days off, and it being the World F-ing Series, and the end of the season, I see no reason why Kimbrel shouldn't pitch in every game when ahead, even up by 10, and any game behind (yeah, like that might happen!) within 3.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Or Uehara 2013 (pitched Games 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 — skipped Game 1 only because we were up 8).

Or Papelbon 2007 (pitched games 2, 3, and 4 — skipped Game 1 only because we were up 12).

Edit: I had forgotten that the guy who "closed" 2007 Game 1 was beloved Red Sox hero Eric Gagne.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Difference being that unlike in 2004, 2007, or 2013, the resident closer isn't under contract for next season. So running Kimbrel into the ground, as long as he's productive while doing it, does no harm to the future of the team.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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In the postgame last night, Cora was all in on tipping. Maybe he's doing it to try to pump up his pitcher but I seriously doubt it.
 

bakahump

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Like you said Rip, its working.

However all the tipping talk does put some extra pressure on Kimbrel (not to do it again...even with more eyes looking for it) and does give the Dodgers something to look for. (Catching him doing it or something like it again).

Whereas if you keep that in house and quiet "Kimbrel must have been helped by the rest between the end of the ALCS and the beginning of the WS".
 

JimD

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Like you said Rip, its working.

However all the tipping talk does put some extra pressure on Kimbrel (not to do it again...even with more eyes looking for it) and does give the Dodgers something to look for. (Catching him doing it or something like it again).

Whereas if you keep that in house and quiet "Kimbrel must have been helped by the rest between the end of the ALCS and the beginning of the WS".
The Dodgers would likely have known if the tipping problem is solved, regardless of what Cora and the Sox said publicly.
 

TheYaz67

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Gotta say, quite baffled at the decision to put Kimbrel in, while up by 5 runs. Don't think he or Kelly are available tomorrow, even with it being the end of the season. He's thrown a lot of pitches in the last two days, and again did not look sharp last night/had a diminished fastball...

Once someone else got up (Brasier?) I thought for sure he would rest him. All good/we are in a great spot up 3-1, just a bit bothered by that move....
 

Max Venerable

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Calculated Cora genius: he knows Kimbrel is off again and purposely burned him out with a 5 run cushion so he had an excuse not to use him in a typical save situation tomorrow.

Anyway, it’s a theory.
 

Apisith

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Everyone should be available tomorrow. I’m guessing it’s Price for a bit then Sale if we have the lead then to Eovaldi and our bullpen.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I assume Cora logically got Kimbrel warming when the game was 5-4, and by the time the lead was padded he was warm anyway and already not a great choice for Sunday.

Plus what Max Venerable said.
 

BaseballJones

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Gotta say, quite baffled at the decision to put Kimbrel in, while up by 5 runs. Don't think he or Kelly are available tomorrow, even with it being the end of the season. He's thrown a lot of pitches in the last two days, and again did not look sharp last night/had a diminished fastball...

Once someone else got up (Brasier?) I thought for sure he would rest him. All good/we are in a great spot up 3-1, just a bit bothered by that move....
I worried aloud when they showed Brasier warming up. I thought: I don't know if he's gonna be warmed up enough given that they just got him up. I think maybe going with Kimbrel here is still the right move.

I thought if Brasier were to come in not fully warm, he'd quickly find himself in trouble and Cora would go to Kimbrel anyway to put out the fire, so they'd end up burning through two relievers. At least by putting Kimbrel in, they had Brasier in reserve.

That's what I thought was happening, but of course like anyone else here, I don't really know the story.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Without an inept ump, all different last night - no BB to the first batter and then probably no grooved pitch for the HR

Throw it out the window
 

Oppo

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Without an inept ump, all different last night - no BB to the first batter and then probably no grooved pitch for the HR

Throw it out the window
Inept ump and Swihart. You could see in Kimbrel’s face he couldn’t believe what was happening
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Brooks has the ump squeezing Kimbrel for four calls .. two of which were pretty egregious..



http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation_io.php-pitchSel=518886&game=gid_2018_10_27_bosmlb_lanmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

Know idea how Swihart affected that. That being said ..

It really looked like Kimbrel was tipping again. Hernandez’s HR on the hanger sure looked like he was expecting a curve ball.

Plus his stuff was subpar. He really needs a day off.
 
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joe dokes

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Brooks has the ump squeezing Kimbrel for four calls .. two of which were pretty egregious..



http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation_io.php-pitchSel=518886&game=gid_2018_10_27_bosmlb_lanmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

Know idea how Swihart affected that. That being said ..

It really looked like Kimbrel was tipping again. Hernandez’s HR on the hanger sure looked like he was expecting a curve ball.

Plus his stuff was subpar. He really needs a day off.
Lumerloni was all over the tipping angle on the radio . Not just because of the HR. But also, all the takes on the curve.
 

BroodsSexton

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Brooks has the ump squeezing Kimbrel for four calls .. two of which were pretty egregious..


Kimbrel threw 28 pitches to 6 batters. That is 15% of his pitches.

MLB can look at this data just as well as we can. Is anything done on a regular basis to give umpires or the umpiring crew feedback?

Is there any systematic analysis of which umpires have more reliable strike zones, or the tendency of certain umpires to miss certain kinds of pitches? Seems like it would be easy analysis to develop and potentially quite useful.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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Kimbrel threw 28 pitches to 6 batters. That is 15% of his pitches, effectively requiring him

MLB can look at this data just as well as we can. Is anything done on a regular basis to give umpires or the umpiring crew feedback?

Is there any systematic analysis of which umpires have more reliable strike zones, or the tendency of certain umpires to miss certain kinds of pitches? Seems like it would be easy analysis to develop and potentially quite useful.
During the regular season the home plate ump is supposed to review his night’s work using PitchFx .. I don’t know if this is the case in the post season. Regardless, I thought the ump had a pretty generous strike zone for most of the game .. which, inexplicably was reversed with Kimbrel.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
During the regular season the home plate ump is supposed to review his night’s work using PitchFx .. I don’t know if this is the case in the post season. Regardless, I thought the ump had a pretty generous strike zone for most of the game .. which, inexplicably was reversed with Kimbrel.
Has anyone ever tried to measure the extent to which umps are influenced by a pitcher's overall tendencies or past record/reputation? I mean, it's kind of a cliche that "when a pitcher's always around the strike zone, he gets the borderline calls," but I can't recall seeing whether anybody's tried to verify that, now that we have the tools to do so.

In other words, does the fact that Kimbrel has a reputation as an "effectively wild" kind of guy mean he'll get squeezed more, because umpires are predisposed to assume he's missing?
 

Apisith

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Two of the missed calls were drops by Swihart, I think. The first pitch thrown was a clear mix-up even though it was right in the middle of the zone.
 

joe dokes

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Has anyone ever tried to measure the extent to which umps are influenced by a pitcher's overall tendencies or past record/reputation? I mean, it's kind of a cliche that "when a pitcher's always around the strike zone, he gets the borderline calls," but I can't recall seeing whether anybody's tried to verify that, now that we have the tools to do so.

In other words, does the fact that Kimbrel has a reputation as an "effectively wild" kind of guy mean he'll get squeezed more, because umpires are predisposed to assume he's missing?
Sort of the opposite of the Maddux and Rivera strike zones.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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If an ump is affected by a dropped ball on a pitch clearly in the zone, he needs to get better and calling strikes (his most important task in his professional life) or quit being a major league umpire since it’s obvious the league isn’t getting rid of these incompetent umpires. Instead they put some of these guys in the World Series. But I think the analysis will show that Ted Barrett might not have been worse, his calls overwhelming favored the Dodgers. Facts don’t lie. Might be still a SSS but 14 of 16 balls called strikes by Dodger pitchers is disturbing.

At least 4 and possibly 6 plus NO close pitches called strikes with Kimbrel out of 28 pitches when a bunch (how many?? 8? 10?) close pitches throughout the game were balls called strikes is even more disturbing.
 

dhappy42

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Inept ump and Swihart. You could see in Kimbrel’s face he couldn’t believe what was happening
Maybe it’d have been a good idea to give Swihart more than 16 catching starts during the regular season.

Backup catchers should be able to step right in, but Swihart played six positions this year so it’s probably harder for him to get catching work in than it is for a dedicated backup catcher.
 

Oppo

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If an ump is affected by a dropped ball on a pitch clearly in the zone, he needs to get better and calling strikes (his most important task in his professional life) or quit being a major league umpire since it’s obvious the league isn’t getting rid of these incompetent umpires. Instead they put some of these guys in the World Series. But I think the analysis will show that Ted Barrett might not have been worse, his calls overwhelming favored the Dodgers. Facts don’t lie. Might be still a SSS but 14 of 16 balls called strikes by Dodger pitchers is disturbing.

At least 4 and possibly 6 plus NO close pitches called strikes with Kimbrel out of 28 pitches when a bunch (how many?? 8? 10?) close pitches throughout the game were balls called strikes is even more disturbing.
It’s not that unusual to see a ball called when the catcher drops or misplays a strike or the catcher is set up inside and it’s an outside strike (and vice versa).