Celtics vs. Nets, Round 1 Discussion

[HomeRunBaker]

Ha, I guess you missed this article. But it looks like the talent evaluators on this board see things about the same way. CD is basically in agreement with this writer. He has Celtics with 4 of the top six players. That makes sense. KD is other worldly, and is the best player right now. JT makes sense as second. Then you have to go with Kyrie, then Jaylen. He has Smart, then Horford, then Brown, then White. Drummond and Claxton round out his top 10. He has a couple of honorable mentions for each team, but curiously neither of those two for the Celtics is Theis.

After the obvious top 4 the three-pt shooting variance will determine who lands where after that. The one ginormous advantage we have is better and longer close-out defenders whereas the Nets do not. They challenge well at the rim but not behind the arc.

 

[nighthob]

I don't agree with this at all, depth matters far less in the playoffs where you can play your best guys 40+ minutes a night. Team with 2 of the 3 best players is usually a good bet, honestly even "best player wins" isn't a bad strategy. We have over a decade of LeBron dominating the East to show us that.

In fairness, though, that’s a bad comparison. Because Prime LeBron descended from Olympus to abuse mere mortals. Durant is great, but never that great.

 

[Auger34]

Maybe, but I look at the past and I see a lot of bad 4-6's on many a contender who did just fine.
The Nets have KD and Kyrie, Seth Curry is a solid playoff starter. Honestly the roster depth is probably better than it was last year once Harden got hurt and they still came inches from beating the eventual champs.

The better your #1 and #2 the less well rounded 3-7 players matter and the more you can just have skillset players. Curry for example, he's a knockdown shooter who is not good but not Fournier/Kemba bad on D, Brown is a solid role-player in the Grant Williams mold, Drummond is a rebounder who can kinda rim-protect, Claxton can defend and rebound some.... that's a dangerous team when the #1 is probably the best player in the NBA and the #2 is a top tier PG.

I think if you were ranking (healthy) players by tier in this series it goes like this:

Tier 1- KD
Tier 2- Tatum
Tier 3- Kyrie
Tier 4- Jaylen

Tier 5- Smart
Tier 6- Horford/White/Curry/Brown/Claxton
Tier 7- Drummond/Mills/Grant/PP/Theis
Tier 8- Dragic/Blake

That's around what DARKO would rank them as well (DARKO might put KD and Tatum in a tier, but I'm dubious about making that call). Boston has the best 3rd guy, and you could argue that our tier 6 guys are the top 2 in the tier for sure, but not sure that's a HUGE advantage compared with having the better #1 guy and better #2 guy.
Talent-wise these are similar teams. The Nets have the better top 2, the Celtics have a decent 3-6 advantage, but it's not massive.

Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton in the same tier as Derrick White and Al Horford?! I really don’t know about that. To me Claxton firmly belongs in Tier 7 while Brown is kind of in between almost.

Not being snarky, but if you think that’s the breakdown don’t you almost have to predict a Nets series win?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The line-ups below assume that Claxton continues to get the most big run for the Nets. As others have noted, the fact that one or both of Durant and Irving can take over a game even when everyone knows that is what is happening makes the Nets a tough foe. I have no idea how this will play out and the C's might win in a walk or five but its not my base case. Instead, its likely to be a drawn out, physical series.

My feeling is that we will know a lot more about the nature of this current Celtics team at the end. Its a big test.

Side note: This data is flawed for a number of reasons, most notably the amount of time that players like Curry and Irving have spent with the other Brooklyn players. Meanwhile the Celtics data is probably a bit conservative because it includes the earlier part of the season when a few guys were unhealthy, struggling etc. And also because Theis hasn't played much with Boston or these players overall this year.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton in the same tier as Derrick White and Al Horford?! I really don’t know about that. To me Claxton firmly belongs in Tier 7 while Brown is kind of in between almost.

Not being snarky, but if you think that’s the breakdown don’t you almost have to predict a Nets series win?

I think Claxton is safer in the tier than Brown.
The case for Brown is that he can defend some and shoots mediocre from 3 on moderate/low volume (well lately, but I'm not going to do the whole parsing partial season 3s for anyone).

The case for Claxton is that he's a legitimately good defender and his offense at the rim and his offensive rebounding offset his lack of other offense enough to make him valuable. If I were ranking in that tier I'd go... Horford, White, Curry, Claxton, Brown probably, but I don't know that the 2 Celtics guys separate a clear tier above, and I do think all 5 are a clear tier up on tier 7.
If someone wanted to do a Tier 6 of Horford, 7 of White, Curry, Claxton Brown, I'd be fine with that.

It can be messy though, If you prefer LEBRON as a metric, it does not like Claxton at all, but thinks Drummond is an All-Star and LEBRON loves the top Celtics guys a lot, but I think in this case DARKO is probably the better metric given the nature of BRK's roster changes/inconsistencies this year.

Edit- RAPTOR also loves Drummond this year, also Aldridge but generally likes the Celtics more. If you roll in last year it starts to like Claxton more. The problem with all of these is of course they are going to like the group that played a whole bunch of games together at a high level over the team whose best players have only played a dozen or so games together.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton in the same tier as Derrick White and Al Horford?! I really don’t know about that. To me Claxton firmly belongs in Tier 7 while Brown is kind of in between almost.

Not being snarky, but if you think that’s the breakdown don’t you almost have to predict a Nets series win?

Brown and White do a lot of similar things on the floor I don’t see a discernible difference between the two. I prefer Horford to Claxton in the playoffs as a veteran who is the more well rounded player.

So imo…..

Brown = White
Horford >> Claxton

 

[Just a bit outside]

White is better than Brown. He has better handles, is a great decision maker, and can create in a 5 on 5 situation. Brown is good when he gets the ball wide open or has a 3 on 2 or 2 on 1 advantage. Brown, to his credit, has taken advantage of being on a team with KD and Durant. I can’t imagine there is one gm in the league that would take him over White.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If there’s something to unite basketball in New York City it’s stomping on the stupid leprechaun.
It was a great troll maneuver by Kyrie Irving because it fed into the irrational anger and pride the Boston fans feel about their beloved Celtics.

That franchise, by the way, has captured just one championship in the last 36 years, or just a single Larry O’Brien trophy during the entire existence of Nintendo.

But nobody rests on their laurels quite like the Celtics. You can’t tell their fans that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo managed just one title, not as they prepare for another inevitable 2008 reunion special or listen to yet another tale of those great green warriors.

Only Ray Allen moved on.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/nets/ny-kyrie-irving-celtics-leprechaun-20220415-ibogpejs4fbylanoriej2u3wqq-story.html

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

If there’s something to unite basketball in New York City it’s stomping on the stupid leprechaun.
It was a great troll maneuver by Kyrie Irving because it fed into the irrational anger and pride the Boston fans feel about their beloved Celtics.

That franchise, by the way, has captured just one championship in the last 36 years, or just a single Larry O’Brien trophy during the entire existence of Nintendo.

But nobody rests on their laurels quite like the Celtics. You can’t tell their fans that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo managed just one title, not as they prepare for another inevitable 2008 reunion special or listen to yet another tale of those great green warriors.

Only Ray Allen moved on.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/nets/ny-kyrie-irving-celtics-leprechaun-20220415-ibogpejs4fbylanoriej2u3wqq-story.html

Nintendo was founded in 1889, but that’s neither here nor there.

 

[jose melendez]

If there’s something to unite basketball in New York City it’s stomping on the stupid leprechaun.
It was a great troll maneuver by Kyrie Irving because it fed into the irrational anger and pride the Boston fans feel about their beloved Celtics.

That franchise, by the way, has captured just one championship in the last 36 years, or just a single Larry O’Brien trophy during the entire existence of Nintendo.

But nobody rests on their laurels quite like the Celtics. You can’t tell their fans that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo managed just one title, not as they prepare for another inevitable 2008 reunion special or listen to yet another tale of those great green warriors.

Only Ray Allen moved on.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/nets/ny-kyrie-irving-celtics-leprechaun-20220415-ibogpejs4fbylanoriej2u3wqq-story.html

That is.... something else coming from an NY hoop reporter. NYC would kill for one ring in 36 years from either of its teams.

 

[jose melendez]

I mean, the Nets have won two ABA championships since the Knicks last won a ring.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

It's like... Yankee fans still chanting 192018.

 

[Spelunker]

It's like... Yankee fans still chanting 2018.

...if the Yankees hadn't won since 1818.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

...if the Yankees hadn't won since 1818.

Caught you with the stealth / before strikethrough edit.

 

[Ed Hillel]

This is probably controversial, but I think Robert Williams is the third best player on these two rosters. Without Williams, I think the series is in the toss up category. With Williams, I think think the Celtics are clear favorites. I’m going Williams back Game 5 with the series 2-2 and Boston in 7.

 

[nighthob]

If there’s something to unite basketball in New York City it’s stomping on the stupid leprechaun.
It was a great troll maneuver by Kyrie Irving because it fed into the irrational anger and pride the Boston fans feel about their beloved Celtics.

That franchise, by the way, has captured just one championship in the last 36 years, or just a single Larry O’Brien trophy during the entire existence of Nintendo.

But nobody rests on their laurels quite like the Celtics. You can’t tell their fans that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo managed just one title, not as they prepare for another inevitable 2008 reunion special or listen to yet another tale of those great green warriors.

Only Ray Allen moved on.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/nets/ny-kyrie-irving-celtics-leprechaun-20220415-ibogpejs4fbylanoriej2u3wqq-story.html

Or one more NBA title than the Nets in their entire futile existence. This year they make that two.

 

[SteveF]

One of the narratives pointing towards a Nets series win is the failure of the Celtics offense in crunch time/high leverage situations. I guess the idea is that crunch time stats will be more predictive of a team's offensive performance in the playoffs than the unfiltered full season offensive rating for reasons that are easily available to our minds. I used pbpstats.com's leverage filter and grabbed every team's offensive rating, offensive rating in high/very high situations, and playoff offensive rating from 2013-2021 (the only years with leverage and playoff data). Then I tried to figure out which correlated better with offensive rating: full season offensive rating or the high leverage offensive rating.

Note: This isn't really even remotely close to the best way to do this. This is really not even a good way to do this, but I wanted a quick and dirty answer. This answer is pretty dirty even by dirty answer standards, so use this for entertainment/shittalking/non-wagering purposes only.

As you might guess, the correlation was significantly stronger with the full season offensive rating.

I also ran the data for teams that underperformed by more than 5 pts per 100 possessions in high/very high leverage compared to the full season offensive rating, Again, full season offensive ratings had a higher correlation. Though I would note that the Celtics this year have the worst high/very high leverage offensive rating minus offensive rating of any team that made the playoffs since 2013 (-16.4). The next worst team is the 2013 Houston Rockets (-12.1). Those Rockets had a regular season offensive rating of 109.63, a high/very high leverage rating of 97.52, and a playoff offensive rating of 106.19.

I think sometime during the summer I may attempt a (marginally) more meaningful study with offensive/defense ratings/leverages of a team/opponent all split out and try to see what coefficients best fit the actual results of playoff game scores.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think if you were ranking (healthy) players by tier in this series it goes like this:

Tier 1- KD
Tier 2- Tatum
Tier 3- Kyrie
Tier 4- Jaylen

Tier 5- Smart
Tier 6- Horford/White/Curry/Brown/Claxton
Tier 7- Drummond/Mills/Grant/PP/Theis
Tier 8- Dragic/Blake

That's around what DARKO would rank them as well (DARKO might put KD and Tatum in a tier, but I'm dubious about making that call). Boston has the best 3rd guy, and you could argue that our tier 6 guys are the top 2 in the tier for sure, but not sure that's a HUGE advantage compared with having the better #1 guy and better #2 guy.
Talent-wise these are similar teams. The Nets have the better top 2, the Celtics have a decent 3-6 advantage, but it's not massive.

If this was strictly about offense I think Kyrie could be #2, above Tatum, at least for a series. But because defense matters, I think you have the top 4 rated correctly. Smart as well.

However, I don't think there's any reasonable case to be made that Horford and White are on the same tier as Curry, Brown, and Clayton.

Brown and White do a lot of similar things on the floor I don’t see a discernible difference between the two. I prefer Horford to Claxton in the playoffs as a veteran who is the more well rounded player.

So imo…..

Brown = White
Horford >> Claxton

The obvious statistical differences between the two favor White.

One thing that could maybe be called a push is three point shooting percentage. White is career .340 while Brown is career .327. However, Brown shot 40.4% this season while While shot a career worst .312, including inly .306 as a Celtic.

But 3-point shooting overall has to go to White, because White can get his shot off. For his career, White averages 5.2 threes per 36, 5.6 as a Celtic, while Brown averages only 2.0 threes per 36, 1.9 this year. This to me indicates a shooter who needs to be wide open to take his shot and even playing with KD/KI doesn't turn him into a volume shooter. Threes from Brown aren't much of a cause for concern for the Celtics going into this series.

White is also a higher usage player with a better assist rate, both for his career and in his time with the Celtics.

Maybe these differences don't matter so much if KD and KI are at peak level for a the whole series, but if not and Brooklyn needs more from Brown than one made three per game, they aren't likely to get it.

This is probably controversial, but I think Robert Williams is the third best player on these two rosters. Without Williams, I think the series is in the toss up category. With Williams, I think think the Celtics are clear favorites. I’m going Williams back Game 5 with the series 2-2 and Boston in 7.

At the very best, Rob is the 5th best player on these 2 rosters and the third best on the Celtics.

If it had been Jaylen who went down with the meniscus injury instead of Rob, would you really think the Celtics were in better shape in this series? That's a stretch.

One of the narratives pointing towards a Nets series win is the failure of the Celtics offense in crunch time/high leverage situations. I guess the idea is that crunch time stats will be more predictive of a team's offensive performance in the playoffs than the unfiltered full season offensive rating for reasons that are easily available to our minds. I used pbpstats.com's leverage filter and grabbed every team's offensive rating, offensive rating in high/very high situations, and playoff offensive rating from 2013-2021 (the only years with leverage and playoff data). Then I tried to figure out which correlated better with offensive rating: full season offensive rating or the high leverage offensive rating.

Note: This isn't really even remotely close to the best way to do this. This is really not even a good way to do this, but I wanted a quick and dirty answer. This answer is pretty dirty even by dirty answer standards, so use this for entertainment/shittalking/non-wagering purposes only.

As you might guess, the correlation was significantly stronger with the full season offensive rating.

I think the issue with doing this for the Celtics is that the team was very different in the first half of the season when they were losing those crunch time games.

 

[lovegtm]

If this was strictly about offense I think Kyrie could be #2, above Tatum, at least for a series. But because defense matters, I think you have the top 4 rated correctly. Smart as well.

However, I don't think there's any reasonable case to be made that Horford and White are on the same tier as Curry, Brown, and Clayton.
The obvious statistical differences between the two favor White.

One thing that could maybe be called a push is three point shooting percentage. White is career .340 while Brown is career .327. However, Brown shot 40.4% this season while While shot a career worst .312, including inly .306 as a Celtic.

But 3-point shooting overall has to go to White, because White can get his shot off. For his career, White averages 5.2 threes per 36, 5.6 as a Celtic, while Brown averages only 2.0 threes per 36, 1.9 this year. This to me indicates a shooter who needs to be wide open to take his shot and even playing with KD/KI doesn't turn him into a volume shooter. Threes from Brown aren't much of a cause for concern for the Celtics going into this series.

White is also a higher usage player with a better assist rate, both for his career and in his time with the Celtics.

Maybe these differences don't matter so much if KD and KI are at peak level for a the whole series, but if not and Brooklyn needs more from Brown than one made three per game, they aren't likely to get it.
At the very best, Rob is the 5th best player on these 2 rosters and the third best on the Celtics.

If it had been Jaylen who went down with the meniscus injury instead of Rob, would you really think the Celtics were in better shape in this series? That's a stretch.
I think the issue with doing this for the Celtics is that the team was very different in the first half of the season when they were losing those crunch time games.

Tbf wrt Rob, I think the poster was saying that he would be the 3rd best player on either roster, not overall.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

John Karalis has an article about how the Celtics' offense can attack Kyrie. Lots of viedo at the link if you have a BSJ subscription.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/04/15/video-breakdown-how-the-celtics-offense-can-pick-on-kyrie-irving

According to Cleaning the Glass, Brooklyn is +13.2 per 100 possessions with Durant and Irving on the floor. With Durant on the floor without Irving, Brooklyn is +10.3. With Irving on the floor without Durant, the Nets are -3.8.

So in its simplest form, we can say pretty confidently because it matches what we see, Durant is the primary driver of Brooklyn’s success. He scores from every spot on the floor, he gets wherever he wants against whatever defense is thrown at him. The only thing a defense can do against Durant is try to force him into the least efficient shot on the floor and hope to minimize the damage.

This is KD's team, partly because KD is an all-time great offensive player and partly because KD contributes on both ends of the floor.

Defensively, Durant can be a great help defender and he will sell out for some big-time blocked shots. He makes mistakes and won’t make an All-Defensive team, but he has good length and can be part of a functional defense.

Irving, though, has much more trouble on that end of the floor. He has quick hands and will poke some balls free for steals, which obviously helps because those almost always turn into transition opportunities. But the Celtics also lick their chops when they see him on the floor because he can be the Jenga piece that gets pulled and knocks the whole defense to the ground.

Anyway, Karalis' ways to target Kyrie:

It’s not always going to just be getting Irving to switch onto Jayson Tatum and then Tatum using his size to shoot over the top or to back Irving down. There are a few different ways to target him without it being directly getting him to switch onto the ball handler.

1. Switch him onto a big

It’s still a matter of mismatch-hunting, but it’s just getting it another way. If the Nets decide to play Andre Drummond and still switch everything, then an obvious plan would be to call Drummond’s man into a pick and roll with Irving’s man and then see where life takes them. Either way can produce some good stuff, especially if Al Horford gets to take Irving down into the post.

2. Screen him to death

At first blush, this might seem counterintuitive. If Irving is such a bad defender, and if he’s already on the ball, then why would you want him off the ball?

Hitting Irving with screens and making him make decisions will inevitably lead to him making the wrong decisions.

The key in this scenario is get him reacting hard one way and take advantage of it.

3. Drive and kick to his side

Again, he is an undisciplined defender. Working the ball around like Boston often does means Irving will have to close out on shooters from time to time. The Nets will try to hide Irving on a non-shooter, but that's not always possible on cross-matches when the pace is pushed. If Irving is set up on a shooter on the perimeter, Boston can simply run a pick and roll where the drive is in Irving’s direction. He’ll invariably get too sucked in and leave a shooter open

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1515342512033984517

 

[Euclis20]

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1515342512033984517

While these are positive [baby] steps for Simmons, he seems unlike to go from "still not being on the practice floor with his teammates" to "making his season and playoff debut in game 4" all in less than 10 days. Such a weird story.

 

[Auger34]

Tbf wrt Rob, I think the poster was saying that he would be the 3rd best player on either roster, not overall.

Pretty sure it’s 3rd best player in the series because 3rd best player on either roster isn’t a controversial or hot take at all, in fact I think that’s just a common opinion

 

[HomeRunBaker]

While these are positive [baby] steps for Simmons, he seems unlike to go from "still not being on the practice floor with his teammates" to "making his season and playoff debut in game 4" all in less than 10 days. Such a weird story.

Standard gamesmanship. If this series extends I fully expect Simmons to be listed as “Questionable” or “Game Time Decision” as I mentioned last week. Blah blah blah. Don’t fall for it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

If it had been Jaylen who went down with the meniscus injury instead of Rob, would you really think the Celtics were in better shape in this series? That's a stretch.

It’s close, but I’d rather Jaylen be out than Williams, yes. I’ve said for a while I think Williams is the 2nd best player on the Celtics. He makes everyone better on both sides of the floor and is the biggest defensive force in the NBA. He gets you numerous extra possessions on the glass, as well. I’d also take all that he brings over Kyrie’s offense.

 

[radsoxfan]

I'm with HRB, I doubt he plays. Bizarre story all year. So he has been pain free for over a week, knows the playoffs are right around the corner, and has still only been playing 1-0?

If he is going to play this series at all, maybe if they are down 3-0 or 3-1. As sort of a hail mary, nothing to lose situation, just to see if it changes momentum.

 

[Euclis20]

Standard gamesmanship. If this series extends I fully expect Simmons to be listed as “Questionable” or “Game Time Decision” as I mentioned last week. Blah blah blah. Don’t fall for it.

And at the same time, Nash throws cold water on the possibility every time he's asked. I can't imagine Boston spends more than a minute of prep on Simmons.

 

[Saints Rest]

In the 2021 playoffs, Simmons shot .342 from the line (73 attempts). Wouldn't the Celtics simply bring in someone like Nesmith, PP, or Hauser, with instructions to send Simmons to the line every time he touches the ball?

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1515381522139918340?s=20&t=YJgw6veJeIwkQpMXzuoq9g

 

[JakeRae]

Maybe, but I look at the past and I see a lot of bad 4-6's on many a contender who did just fine.
The Nets have KD and Kyrie, Seth Curry is a solid playoff starter. Honestly the roster depth is probably better than it was last year once Harden got hurt and they still came inches from beating the eventual champs.

The better your #1 and #2 the less well rounded 3-7 players matter and the more you can just have skillset players. Curry for example, he's a knockdown shooter who is not good but not Fournier/Kemba bad on D, Brown is a solid role-player in the Grant Williams mold, Drummond is a rebounder who can kinda rim-protect, Claxton can defend and rebound some.... that's a dangerous team when the #1 is probably the best player in the NBA and the #2 is a top tier PG.

I think if you were ranking (healthy) players by tier in this series it goes like this:

Tier 1- KD
Tier 2- Tatum
Tier 3- Kyrie
Tier 4- Jaylen

Tier 5- Smart
Tier 6- Horford/White/Curry/Brown/Claxton
Tier 7- Drummond/Mills/Grant/PP/Theis
Tier 8- Dragic/Blake

That's around what DARKO would rank them as well (DARKO might put KD and Tatum in a tier, but I'm dubious about making that call). Boston has the best 3rd guy, and you could argue that our tier 6 guys are the top 2 in the tier for sure, but not sure that's a HUGE advantage compared with having the better #1 guy and better #2 guy.
Talent-wise these are similar teams. The Nets have the better top 2, the Celtics have a decent 3-6 advantage, but it's not massive.

You’re using too many tiers and it makes some of the gaps too big. You also have tiers 5/6 designed to underrate the Celtics. If I were to do this exercise, including Timelord but not Simmons, I’d end up with something more like the below with the area I’m most torn about being whether Durant is even a half tier ahead of Tatum still. Simmons I’m not ranking because I don’t know what he would look like right now. Healthy and in shape, Simmons is somewhere ahead of Jaylen in my ranking and I haven’t really put thoughts into subtiers there and whether Jaylen has improved enough to put him in the same category even if Simmons would rank higher still.

Tier 1: Durant (1A); Tatum (1B)
Tier 2: Kyrie
Tier 3: Jaylen
Tier 4: Smart; Horford; Timelord
Tier 5: White, Brown, Curry
Tier 6: Grant, Claxton, Theis
Tier 7: Drummond, Pritchard, Mills, Dragic
Tier 8: Blake, Nesmith

On the more controversial points in this, I think this Board is overrating Timelord and underrating Horford, but I don’t feel strongly and my ordering is not a ranking within the tier. Timelord is also someone I expect to jump out of this tier next year and already has games where he’s clearly at another level.

The line between Horford and White is hard for me and I debating moving White up as well and may only not have done as a form of fake balance. I think White is closer to Smart or Horford in quality than he is to Brown or Curry. I think it’s a mistake to put Claxton in that same tier or in a different tier from Theis (definitely) and Grant (probably).

I offer this as a counterpoint because I think many here see the rosters as closer to this and that difference has a huge impact on how you view the comparable talent of the rosters.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It’s close, but I’d rather Jaylen be out than Williams, yes. I’ve said for a while I think Williams is the 2nd best player on the Celtics. He makes everyone better on both sides of the floor and is the biggest defensive force in the NBA. He gets you numerous extra possessions on the glass, as well. I’d also take all that he brings over Kyrie’s offense.

There's a tradeoff, though, and I think the downside without Brown is worse. You give up a lot of offense and on ball defense, and force the Celtics to either go very big (Grant playing most of his minutes at the 3) or rely on Nesmith and guys lower than him to play significant minutes. The Nets would collapse on Tatum and make other guys beat them. Theis is a pretty good player though he is not Rob. They don't have a wing equivalent. All in all, I think Celtics are better without Rob than without Brown.

 

[Imbricus]

Tier 7: Drummond, Pritchard, Mills, Dragic

Drummond in tier 7? Hmm. He seems more like a 6 knocking on 5 maybe.

 

[JakeRae]

Drummond in tier 7? Hmm. He seems more like a 6 knocking on 5 maybe.

I’m not a fan of his game and likely underrating him as a result.

 

[Toe Nash]

If you were drafting a team from scratch maybe it wouldn't be the case, but I think Smart is clearly the 5th most valuable player in the series (not considering Rob) given the role he will be asked to play of facilitator, lockdown defender and intangibles / hustle guy. Playoff basketball really highlights his strengths IMO and when you will have the Js on the court most of the time as well he won't be asked to do a lot of shooting.

IF Rob returns at 100% they would be 5A and 5B. I also agree with JakeRae that Horford is in a higher tier than Brown or Curry.

 

[Auger34]

To me, if you really think that the 3-8 players on both teams are similar then you
A. Think the nets are going to win the series
B. Think that the Celtics overpaid for Derrick white by a decent amount because if you paid that price for either Nic Claxton or Bruce Brown you would be, rightly IMO, skewered by everyone.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

To me, if you really think that the 3-8 players on both teams are similar then you
A. Think the nets are going to win the series
B. Think that the Celtics overpaid for Derrick white by a decent amount because if you paid that price for either Nic Claxton or Bruce Brown you would be, rightly IMO, skewered by everyone.

Bruce Brown is pretty good, but Derrick White is the better player. I've got C's in 5, assuming a fair whistle. That's a dangerous assumption, of course.

 

[Devizier]

It’s pretty clearly Durant-Tatum-Kyrie-Jaylen, with the Celtics rotation guys especially Smart and Horford being a lot better than the Nets’.

This is going to be a butt clencher, because of Durant, but I have the Celtics as slight favorites. The thing is every match up going forward is going to be rough so it’s impossible to even consider the Finals never mind another banner.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Which Nets, not including Irving, Durant, Simmons, would you want to add to the Celtics? Possibilities:

1. Curry, who would be an improvement on PP
2. Claxton, to provide some of what was lost when Rob went down
3. Brown, for wing depth, but he would barely play on the current Celtic team

I'm not sure I'd even want anyone else. I guess Mills could also step in for PP.

Which Celtics, not including Brown, Tatum, Rob, would add value to the Nets? Smart, Horford, White, Grant. Any of the first 3 would start.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Has anyone actually said that the Nets' role players are better than the Celtics?

What has been said is that the Nets have the better stars, and that the gap in role players may not make up for that. Particularly in a playoff series where your role players are even more often relegated to a more limited and particular role given the heavy emphasis on star usage.

The Celtics' 3-6 is definitely better than the Nets' 3-6, the question is...
1. does it matter
2. do the particular strengths and weaknesses mean the "better" player provides more actual value.

For example Curry.... if he plays even ok defense and hits his 3s at his normal rate.. that could very well be more valuable than Smart playing top defense and hitting 32% of his 3s, because... The Nets really need a 3rd scorer, and the Nets are likely going to give Marcus all the 3s he wants, in fact they'll likely structure the whole defense to help off Marcus, and White (also probably Horford and Theis) and dare them to make enough 3s.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Someone put Claxton and Brown in the same tier as Horford and White which is a joke. Curry might be closer but he is hobbled and not moving very well. Smart, Horford, and White are clearly better than the next 3 for the Nets. I’m not sure Grant isn’t next with Curry not 100%.

 

[benhogan]

In the 2021 playoffs, Simmons shot .342 from the line (73 attempts). Wouldn't the Celtics simply bring in someone like Nesmith, PP, or Hauser, with instructions to send Simmons to the line every time he touches the ball?

+1. Simmons "playing" is just another media clickbait fest. Nash is not optimistic.

If Ben does step on the floor roll out the velvet ropes to the FT line and enjoy plenty of this:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWUplNAhV1g

Drummond in tier 7? Hmm. He seems more like a 6 knocking on 5 maybe.

Drummond is going to get played off the floor when the C's put Drummond/Kyrie in PnR.

plus Drummond's offense isn't important enough with the amount of lane clogging he'll create.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

What are the defensive matchups for the Nets, starters?

Assume the Nets start Drummond, KD, Brown, Curry, and KI as they did in the play in.

 

[teddykgb]

Won’t the Nets be happy if the Celtics stop running what they’ve been running to hunt mismatches for 48 minutes? The team we watched struggle with iso ball for 40 games was stuck in that mode and it was ineffective

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Bruce Brown is pretty good, but Derrick White is the better player. I've got C's in 5, assuming a fair whistle. That's a dangerous assumption, of course.

Brown is really good. So is White. I don’t think people here are recognizing what he does for his team. His role, aside from ball handling responsibilities, is the same for his team as Smart’s is for us. He isn’t playing against 2nd units, he is defending the opponents high scoring wings every night. He’s the Nets 3rd most important player as nobody else on their roster does what he can do (which is a big hole on the Nets and why a normal Simmons would be so helpful to them).

 

[Auger34]

Has anyone actually said that the Nets' role players are better than the Celtics?

What has been said is that the Nets have the better stars, and that the gap in role players may not make up for that. Particularly in a playoff series where your role players are even more often relegated to a more limited and particular role given the heavy emphasis on star usage.

The Celtics' 3-6 is definitely better than the Nets' 3-6, the question is...
1. does it matter
2. do the particular strengths and weaknesses mean the "better" player provides more actual value.

For example Curry.... if he plays even ok defense and hits his 3s at his normal rate.. that could very well be more valuable than Smart playing top defense and hitting 32% of his 3s, because... The Nets really need a 3rd scorer, and the Nets are likely going to give Marcus all the 3s he wants, in fact they'll likely structure the whole defense to help off Marcus, and White (also probably Horford and Theis) and dare them to make enough 3s.

I apologize if I am misquoting you or misread your posts but haven’t you been consistently been saying that the role players are very close?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I apologize if I am misquoting you or misread your posts but haven’t you been consistently been saying that the role players are very close?

No, I've been saying that after Smart they are in the same general tier, in that the Celtics probably have the 5th-7th best players, but that I don't see the big gap some argue for in impact between Horford/White and Curry/Brown/Claxton in their roles in a playoff series, and that the rest is similar. My case was that people are overrating how much having the 6th and 7th best guys in a series matters when your opponent has 2 of the best 3, it was originally my talking about why I think it's likely a long series in response to people arguing that the Celtics had too much more talent and would probably win in 4 or 5.

Now if TL was back (and Simmons wasn't) maybe that changes things, because I do think TL is more at the Smart level in that you are now looking at having 4 guys significantly more impactful than your oponent's 3rd best (and probably 6 guys better than their 3rd), of course the flipside is that if we're playing hypotheticals, Simmons could come back and even less than 100% he's changing the talent level for Brooklyn significantly.

As it is... the Celtics have more depth of talent, BRK has the better top 2, and we should expect a 6 or 7 game series.

It also involved the more general point that in most recent NBA history, the team with more (healthy) top end talent tends to win.

Edit- I will say, I've seen some compelling cases that the guy I'm really underrating is Drummond, particularly given how he exploits Al's weaknesses. He does grade out quite well with the Nets, and is the type of big who always gave Al fits.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

No, I've been saying that after Smart they are in the same general tier, in that the Celtics probably have the 5th-7th best players, but that I don't see the big gap some argue for in impact between Horford/White and Curry/Brown/Claxton in their roles in a playoff series, and that the rest is similar. My case was that people are overrating how much having the 6th and 7th best guys in a series matters when your opponent has 2 of the best 3, it was originally my talking about why I think it's likely a long series in response to people arguing that the Celtics had too much more talent and would probably win in 4 or 5.

This is where I’m at too. Taking TL and Simmons out of the equation the Celtics advantage rests with Smart > Brown and Horford > Drummond but the latters style could really play up in a playoff series as he has a history of ginormous games against the Celtics. Once you get into the bench Theis and Claxton can’t really be separated and the White vs Curry/Mills matchup winner could shift from game to game based on 3-pt shooting variance.

The clear edge past the top 4 go to Boston I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

No, I've been saying that after Smart they are in the same general tier, in that the Celtics probably have the 5th-7th best players, but that I don't see the big gap some argue for in impact between Horford/White and Curry/Brown/Claxton in their roles in a playoff series, and that the rest is similar. My case was that people are overrating how much having the 6th and 7th best guys in a series matters when your opponent has 2 of the best 3, it was originally my talking about why I think it's likely a long series in response to people arguing that the Celtics had too much more talent and would probably win in 4 or 5.

Now if TL was back (and Simmons wasn't) maybe that changes things, because I do think TL is more at the Smart level in that you are now looking at having 4 guys significantly more impactful than your oponent's 3rd best (and probably 6 guys better than their 3rd), of course the flipside is that if we're playing hypotheticals, Simmons could come back and even less than 100% he's changing the talent level for Brooklyn significantly.

As it is... the Celtics have more depth of talent, BRK has the better top 2, and we should expect a 6 or 7 game series.

It also involved the more general point that in most recent NBA history, the team with more (healthy) top end talent tends to win.

Edit- I will say, I've seen some compelling cases that the guy I'm really underrating is Drummond, particularly given how he exploits Al's weaknesses. He does grade out quite well with the Nets, and is the type of big who always gave Al fits.

As to the bolded, I've been thinking the best case for the Celtics is to win in 6, the best case for Brooklyn is to win in 7. I'm not expecting Celtics in 4 or 5. Brooklyn can win the series if KD and KI are at their best and can handle 40+ minutes per game. If not, the Celtics youth and depth - along with Tatum and Brown - will be the difference.

I think Brooklyn will have to play zone in this series because they have no defenders between the 6'4" Bruce Brown and the allegedly 6'10" Kevin Durant. If that doesn't work they are overmatched in almost every matchup. Do you put Durant on Tatum and Brown on Brown? Can Durant guard Tatum effectively at one end and be at his offensive best on the other for 40 minutes every game? They might perfer to have Durant on Theis and have him play more of a Rob Williams type late help role on defense. But that means, what? Brown on Tatum? And Irving or Curry on Brown? Is that really going to get it done?

I guess their hope is that Durant, Drummond, Claxton take away the rim and the Celtics miss a lot of open threes.

 

[amarshal2]

We probably should expect a 6-7 game series. But the Celtics have been a wrecking ball for 3+ months absolutely embarrassing teams. It was fun watching the Warriors, Wolves, sixers, grizz (with Ja), jazz, and nuggets yesterday and thinking about how the last time they played the Celtics they were utterly dismantled. With Rob Williams out maybe that doesn’t happen or maybe the Nets are on a different level than those teams (I doubt it). But if the Celtics play the way they have been and the shots fall this analysis of who has better players in meaningless because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. If the Celtics play together on offense and defense like they have been — it’s over.

 

[joe dokes]

Durant might play 45 minutes in the first 2 games since there's an extra day off after each before it goes to every other day.