Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

[nighthob]

I don't do positional needs. My view is the traditional You grab the best guy you have with the pick available and figure out the rest later one. Picking for need is how you end up drafting a PF project with no physical upside rather than Jimmy Butler ( ). That being said I have Ellenson in my second tier. If Boston were, god forbid, drafting in the 6-10 range he'd move to the top of the board.

I looooove the hands on Ellenson, and I like the way he finishes through contact. He's also quick enough to defend out on the perimeter, and big enough to play some center in the new smallball NBA. I would probably put him above Bender, but that might be the Marquette fanboydom combined with my traditional ignorance of Euroleague players.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Tonight begins Brooklyn's pivotal 9 game road trip. The first stop is red-hot Portland. A Blazers win would be a nice double-up for us as they try to catch the Mavs.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Portland is hot, and a good home team, so they should beat Brooklyn. Really need Brooklyn to get cold, because Phoenix might not win another game this year.

 

[Jeff Frye]

This 9 game trip is huge. Included in the trip for BKN are Phoenix, Minnesota, the Lakers and Philly. All winnable games. Need the other bottom feeders to help the Celtics out.

 

[GreenMonster49]

Phoenix might not win another game this year.

The Suns were 12-16 after beating the Pelicans on December 18th. They have a 2-27 record since then.

 

[jon abbey]

The Suns were 12-16 after beating the Pelicans on December 18th. They have a 2-27 record since then.

They were just the first team to get swept in a seven game homestand since '64-'65.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Marc SteinVerified account‏@ESPNSteinLine
Joe Johnson and the Brooklyn Nets have opened buyout negotiations, ESPN has learned

He obviously hasn't been great but is still a 37% 3pt shooter and is their top playmaker on most nights given how bad Sloan and Larkin are.

 

[ALiveH]

Joe Johnson is an UFA after this season so they save very little money. If the Nets still had their #1 pick everyone would be screaming that this is a total tank move. Makes no sense to me. More minutes for Karasev and Bogdanovic who should be in the D-League.

 

[nighthob]

Actually, I think you're forgetting just how much Johnson's salary is. He's owed around $7.6 million or so, so the Nets can save their financially ailing owner $2-$3 million in the deal where every penny counts while getting a look at the rest of the cruft on the roster to see if there's anything worth keeping.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Joe Johnson is an UFA after this season so they save very little money. If the Nets still had their #1 pick everyone would be screaming that this is a total tank move. Makes no sense to me. More minutes for Karasev and Bogdanovic who should be in the D-League.

I think there's some value to the Nets in terms of how players around the league perceive their front office. If a guy who has given you years of good service comes to you because he wants the opportunity to go to a contender, and he's not a part of your plans going forward, there's no reason not to help facilitate that. Refusing that would reflect poorly, and players around the league would notice.

 

[wutang112878]

Joe Johnson is an UFA after this season so they save very little money. If the Nets still had their #1 pick everyone would be screaming that this is a total tank move. Makes no sense to me. More minutes for Karasev and Bogdanovic who should be in the D-League.

I dont think there are many franchises who wouldnt try to work some buyouts when they wont break 25 wins and are going to pay the tax.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

And, there are reports that the Celtics are one of the teams interested in Johnson. Boston and Atlanta are the two pseudo-contenders who can offer him more than the vet minimum. JJ's a statue defensively, but he can knock down spot-up threes. I'm mildly curious as to what he could bring as a small-ball four off the bench.

 

[bowiac]

Johnson's been released:


If this somehow results in more minutes for Bojan Bogdanovic, then its a big win for the Celtics.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Just in time for their tilt with Phoenix, one of the last games all season in which they will actually be favored.

 

[smastroyin]

12 guys from SoSH would probably be favored against Phoenix at this point

 

[the moops]

12 guys from SoSH would probably be favored against Phoenix at this point

I'm playing point!

 

[Fishy1]

ISO Joe leaving, even in his state, makes the Nets way, way worse.

They're now a Lopez injury away from fighting Phoenix for that third spot. Gonna dig out that voodoll doll.

 

[JakeRae]

ISO Joe leaving, even in his state, makes the Nets way, way worse.

They're now a Lopez injury away from fighting Phoenix for that third spot. Gonna dig out that voodoll doll.

They aren't fighting the Suns. The Suns are almost certainly going to finish with the 2nd worst record in the game. The real question is whether the Lakers home-heavy schedule gives the Nets a fighting shot at passing them. Given the strong incentives the Lakers have not to drop out of the bottom three, that seems unlikely. Even getting passed by the Suns is risky for LA, but I don't think the Suns are really going to give them a choice in the matter.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Given the strong incentives the Lakers have not to drop out of the bottom three, that seems unlikely.

What incentives do the Lakers players have to not drop out of the bottom three? The players aren't going to be throwing games so the team can draft better players to take their minutes which affects their numbers and could cost them millions of dollars in their next contract. Actually, the Lakers players DO have incentive to drop out of the bottom three more than they don't.

Tanking is what management does by shutting down star players like what we did with Pierce in 2007. The Lakers don't have anyone to shut down. I suppose you could say by playing Kobe that is a backwards tanking strategy but Kobe isn't playing for the Lakers to lose games he is playing to put asses in the stands both home and on the road.

 

[mcpickl]

What incentives do the Lakers players have to not drop out of the bottom three? The players aren't going to be throwing games so the team can draft better players to take their minutes which affects their numbers and could cost them millions of dollars in their next contract. Actually, the Lakers players DO have incentive to drop out of the bottom three more than they don't.

Tanking is what management does by shutting down star players like what we did with Pierce in 2007. The Lakers don't have anyone to shut down. I suppose you could say by playing Kobe that is a backwards tanking strategy but Kobe isn't playing for the Lakers to lose games he is playing to put asses in the stands both home and on the road.

You don't think if Julius Randle says his knee is a bit sore and the Lakers shut him down and give his minutes to Robert Sacre and Tarik Black that wouldn't affect them? Maybe Jordan Clarkson says his hamstring is tight and Nick Young gets his minutes?

Unlikely it matters anyway in terms of Brooklyn catching them. With Brooklyn up 5 wins, they could go winless the rest of the way and still probably fall short of catching the Lakers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You don't think if Julius Randle says his knee is a bit sore and the Lakers shut him down and give his minutes to Robert Sacre and Tarik Black that wouldn't affect them? Maybe Jordan Clarkson says his hamstring is tight and Nick Young gets his minutes?

Unlikely it matters anyway in terms of Brooklyn catching them. With Brooklyn up 5 wins, they could go winless the rest of the way and still probably fall short of catching the Lakers.

These are young guys on rookie contracts looking to put up numbers? Why on earth would they do anything to get themselves pulled to cost them minutes and maybe their jobs? That's preposterous.

 

[TheRooster]

Plus, if you are ever going to be good, Randle probably needs to develop.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

The Lakers want to keep their pick. So they'll play the young guys and trot out Kobe for the retirement tour, but they'll find ways to lose games. I don't think Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell are going to be putting the team on their backs to beat anyone. They need minutes to develop, but that doesn't necessarily lead to wins.

 

[Jeff Frye]

If the Lakers pick falls out of the top 3, doesn't it go to the Sixers?

 

[NoXInNixon]

If the Lakers pick falls out of the top 3, doesn't it go to the Sixers?

Yes.

 

[JakeRae]

What incentives do the Lakers players have to not drop out of the bottom three? The players aren't going to be throwing games so the team can draft better players to take their minutes which affects their numbers and could cost them millions of dollars in their next contract. Actually, the Lakers players DO have incentive to drop out of the bottom three more than they don't.

Tanking is what management does by shutting down star players like what we did with Pierce in 2007. The Lakers don't have anyone to shut down. I suppose you could say by playing Kobe that is a backwards tanking strategy but Kobe isn't playing for the Lakers to lose games he is playing to put asses in the stands both home and on the road.

The Lakers players, as you point out, have no incentive. The organization does though. That means the coach does. Players don't tank, organizations do.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Lakers players, as you point out, have no incentive. The organization does though. That means the coach does. Players don't tank, organizations do.

Omg I don't really know how else to phrase it. How would they tank when they have no star impact players to sit out of games? What is the coach going to do differently to purposely lose games? So the games on the court are fixed is what you are saying? He's telling his players to miss shots or turn the ball over?

Organizations tank by shutting down star players. Carmelo last year in NY, Pierce in '07, for the 4th time the Lakers can't shut anyone down because they don't have an impact player TO shut down.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

They can call Kobe ISOs every trip down the court, though....that's pretty close to tanking!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

They can call Kobe ISOs every trip down the court, though....that's pretty close to tanking!

Agreed but that is going to happen due to his self-initiated farewell tour regardless not some elaborate way for the organization to figure out how to lose more games.

 

[mcpickl]

These are young guys on rookie contracts looking to put up numbers? Why on earth would they do anything to get themselves pulled to cost them minutes and maybe their jobs? That's preposterous.

Where did I say they would do anything to get themselves pulled to cost them minutes and maybe their jobs? I said if I guy has a minor injury(I used Randle/knee and Clarkson/hamstring as examples) that a tanking team like LA would use that excuse to shut them down. Why wouldn't they? Why play a guy at say, 92% health in meaningless games when wins could actively hurt your franchise going forward? I know, PREPOSTEROUS right?

Why are you focused on the players motivations in terms of tanking? No one thinks the players are going to throw games. It's always organizational.

Omg I don't really know how else to phrase it. How would they tank when they have no star impact players to sit out of games? What is the coach going to do differently to purposely lose games? So the games on the court are fixed is what you are saying? He's telling his players to miss shots or turn the ball over?

Organizations tank by shutting down star players. Carmelo last year in NY, Pierce in '07, for the 4th time the Lakers can't shut anyone down because they don't have an impact player TO shut down.

Do you think every player on the Lakers is of equal skill level? You replace their better players, with worse ones. It's not that hard,

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Minnesota outscored New Orleans 36-24 in the 4th quarter to nail down their 19th win of the year.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Where did I say they would do anything to get themselves pulled to cost them minutes and maybe their jobs? I said if I guy has a minor injury(I used Randle/knee and Clarkson/hamstring as examples) that a tanking team like LA would use that excuse to shut them down. Why wouldn't they? Why play a guy at say, 92% health in meaningless games when wins could actively hurt your franchise going forward? I know, PREPOSTEROUS right?

Why are you focused on the players motivations in terms of tanking? No one thinks the players are going to throw games. It's always organizational.



Do you think every player on the Lakers is of equal skill level? You replace their better players, with worse ones. It's not that hard,

Right but the organization needs to tools to do anything significant like sit Melo and Pierce. Who do the Lakers shut down that will have an impact in Wins and Losses? Everyone is coming in here with these grand generalizations but no specific plan of action which is predictable since there isn't a player out there to shut down that has an impact in W/L.

 

[Jeff Frye]

Suns up 8 at the half. But unfortunately Brooklyn is up 5 on Utah at the half.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Suns up 8 at the half. But unfortunately Brooklyn is up 5 on Utah at the half.

Brooklyn winning would be a double whammy as Utah is one of the teams we need to hurdle over Dallas too.

 

[mcpickl]

Omg I don't really know how else to phrase it. How would they tank when they have no star impact players to sit out of games? What is the coach going to do differently to purposely lose games? So the games on the court are fixed is what you are saying? He's telling his players to miss shots or turn the ball over?

Organizations tank by shutting down star players. Carmelo last year in NY, Pierce in '07, for the 4th time the Lakers can't shut anyone down because they don't have an impact player TO shut down.

Do you think every player on the Lakers is of equal skill level? You replace their better players, with worse ones.

Right but the organization needs to tools to do anything significant like sit Melo and Pierce. Who do the Lakers shut down that will have an impact in Wins and Losses? Everyone is coming in here with these grand generalizations but no specific plan of action which is predictable since there isn't a player out there to shut down that has an impact in W/L.

Every player that steps on the floor has an impact in W/L. Just because it's not as significant as Pierce/Melo doesn't mean it's not tanking. Look back at the 1996-97 Celtics. That team obviously didn't have any significant stars to shut down, but it sure looked like tanking to me when Rick Fox and Eric Williams missed half the games in April and Marty Conlon, Brett Szabo and Nate Driggers got increased minutes. Why would that be any different than the specific plan of action I mentioned above of shutting down any guy getting big minutes now that might have a minor injury and replacing him with a worse player?

Here's ML Carr talking about his 1997 tank job,

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9434966/for-boston-celtics-tanking-likely-necessary-never-easy

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Do you think every player on the Lakers is of equal skill level? You replace their better players, with worse ones.


Every player that steps on the floor has an impact in W/L. Just because it's not as significant as Pierce/Melo doesn't mean it's not tanking. Look back at the 1996-97 Celtics. That team obviously didn't have any significant stars to shut down, but it sure looked like tanking to me when Rick Fox and Eric Williams missed half the games in April and Marty Conlon, Brett Szabo and Nate Driggers got increased minutes. Why would that be any different than the specific plan of action I mentioned above of shutting down any guy getting big minutes now that might have a minor injury and replacing him with a worse player?

Here's ML Carr talking about his 1997 tank job,

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9434966/for-boston-celtics-tanking-likely-necessary-never-easy

Yes, they sat Fox and Williams who were established veterans. You STILL haven't given me any specific examples only to claim that the Lakers have impact players (Lol) who affect Wins and Losses. Specific examples to discuss would be helpful to the discussion otherwise you aren't really suggesting anything. Do you think the Lakers will shut down Clarkson, Russell, or Randle? Who are the "worse" players who will play and who do you feel they will replace?

I know it's a difficult to formulate this tanking plan......which is my point, it doesn't really exist. The fact that you continue dancing around the question validates this point.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Yes, they sat Fox and Williams who were established veterans. You STILL haven't given me any specific examples only to claim that the Lakers have impact players (Lol) who affect Wins and Losses. Specific examples to discuss would be helpful to the discussion otherwise you aren't really suggesting anything. Do you think the Lakers will shut down Clarkson, Russell, or Randle? Who are the "worse" players who will play and who do you feel they will replace?

I know it's a difficult to formulate this tanking plan......which is my point, it doesn't really exist. The fact that you continue dancing around the question validates this point.

HRB you really think the back end Lakers roster fodder is the same as their starters? Come on man.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't see the argument here, the Lakers have lost 22 of their last 25 while playing all of their 'best' players. With 22 games left, whether they go 3-19 or 0-22 is irrelevant, they'd end up in the #2 spot either way. They'd need to win at least 5 or 6 of those 22 to pass the Suns and they've shown no signs of being able to do that whether they try their best organizationally or not at all.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

HRB you really think the back end Lakers roster fodder is the same as their starters? Come on man.

They have lost 8 in a row with their "better" players and lost 18 of 20 with only wins coming against Minnesota (19-40) and New Orleans (23-35). Do you really think they need to sit their young players who are their best players and need minutes to tank?

 

[southshoresoxfan]

They have lost 8 in a row with their "better" players and lost 18 of 20 with only wins coming against Minnesota (19-40) and New Orleans (23-35). Do you really think they need to sit their young players who are their best players and need minutes to tank?

That's not what I said. You seem to act like they can't get worse by sitting some of their best players. which they absolutely can. Any bad to horrible team can sink further down.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That's not what I said. You seem to act like they can't get worse by sitting some of their best players. which they absolutely can. Any bad to horrible team can sink further down.

How can bad to horrible sink them further when bad already nets them a loss every single night? The difference between bad Lakers and horrible Lakers on this team doesn't affect Wins and Losses how can this not be obvious when bad already results in a loss every single game? It's The Law of Diminishing Returns in full affect here.

If the season ended today the ONLY non-lottery team they have beaten this season was the Celtics on Dec 30th......and you really feel they are going to go on a run playing these same guys?

 

[sox311]

Remember Tankathon.com and their scientific "power rankings?" Even more ridiculous now.

What this really shows is that Phoenix and Denver have more at their disposal to make moves up in the draft this year than the Celtics do...

Danny has more future assets, likely, but not in this draft. But, as we learned last year, future picks, or moving down for multiple players probably isn't worth near what a team thinks they can make for themselves in that selection.

DRAFT POWER RANKINGS
1 Boston
4, 19, 23, 31, 35, 50, 52, 58
2 Phoenix
3, 13, 28, 33
3 Denver
6, 15, 20, 46, 57
4 Philadelphia
1, 22, 27
5 LA Lakers
2, 32

 

[mcpickl]

Yes, they sat Fox and Williams who were established veterans. You STILL haven't given me any specific examples only to claim that the Lakers have impact players (Lol) who affect Wins and Losses. Specific examples to discuss would be helpful to the discussion otherwise you aren't really suggesting anything. Do you think the Lakers will shut down Clarkson, Russell, or Randle? Who are the "worse" players who will play and who do you feel they will replace?

I know it's a difficult to formulate this tanking plan......which is my point, it doesn't really exist. The fact that you continue dancing around the question validates this point.

you serious? I said this a few posts above/

"You don't think if Julius Randle says his knee is a bit sore and the Lakers shut him down and give his minutes to Robert Sacre and Tarik Black that wouldn't affect them? Maybe Jordan Clarkson says his hamstring is tight and Nick Young gets his minutes?"

Why isn't that example specific enough for you?

With this, I give up. If you want to believe the only way to tank is to shut down a supertstar player, then go for it. I don't want to hijack the thread any further. My head hurts.

 

[Marceline]

"You don't think if Julius Randle says his knee is a bit sore and the Lakers shut him down and give his minutes to Robert Sacre and Tarik Black that wouldn't affect them? Maybe Jordan Clarkson says his hamstring is tight and Nick Young gets his minutes?"

Why isn't that example specific enough for you?

How does that matter if they are already losing every game? It doesn't affect the standings if they lose by 30 instead of 15.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

you serious? I said this a few posts above/

"You don't think if Julius Randle says his knee is a bit sore and the Lakers shut him down and give his minutes to Robert Sacre and Tarik Black that wouldn't affect them? Maybe Jordan Clarkson says his hamstring is tight and Nick Young gets his minutes?"

Why isn't that example specific enough for you?

With this, I give up. If you want to believe the only way to tank is to shut down a supertstar player, then go for it. I don't want to hijack the thread any further. My head hurts.

Well yeah because a superstar wins you NBA games......as you seem to be ignoring is that Randle and Clarkson are contributing to the Lakers losing games every single night. Sitting them won't make them lose more games......they lose every night already. And you say YOUR head hurts? Oy vay.

 

[Koufax]

Remember Tankathon.com and their scientific "power rankings?" Even more ridiculous now.

What this really shows is that Phoenix and Denver have more at their disposal to make moves up in the draft this year than the Celtics do...

Danny has more future assets, likely, but not in this draft. But, as we learned last year, future picks, or moving down for multiple players probably isn't worth near what a team thinks they can make for themselves in that selection.

DRAFT POWER RANKINGS
1 Boston
4, 19, 23, 31, 35, 50, 52, 58
2 Phoenix
3, 13, 28, 33
3 Denver
6, 15, 20, 46, 57
4 Philadelphia
1, 22, 27
5 LA Lakers
2, 32

And how exactly does this show that Phoenix has more? Disregarding the best picks of each team, yes Phoenix's 13 + 28 is more attractive than Boston's 19 + 23; but is that difference enough to offset 4 second round picks more than Phoenix has? You say yes, but the study that the power rankings is based upon looks at how actual picks turned out in real life. Is there a better methodology? If so, pray tell what is it?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Yes, it's difference enough to offset 4 second round picks. They are virtually worthless except to a team looking to avoid taking on salaries. They could offer all four, plus their two first round picks and likely not be able to move up much from 19, certainly not into top ten range. This isnt the NFL.

 

[Bob420]

I don't think those rankings mean much. Boston, Phoenix, Den would probably trade everything they have for the #1 pick alone and I am guessing Philly still says no.

 

[bowiac]

I don't think those rankings mean much. Boston, Phoenix, Den would probably trade everything they have for the #1 pick alone and I am guessing Philly still says no.

I'm not sure I'd trade everything for the #1 lottery spot however.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yes, it's difference enough to offset 4 second round picks. They are virtually worthless except to a team looking to avoid taking on salaries. They could offer all four, plus their two first round picks and likely not be able to move up much from 19, certainly not into top ten range. This isnt the NFL.

That's not what it measures. It measures expected value of the picks as players not trade value for other picks.