Ceddanne Rafaela promoted to AAA
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Rafaela was 3-5 with 2 homers today.
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1677467784458956802
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1677482070199656449
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1677467784458956802
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1677482070199656449
Soooo... if I did this quick math right, that brings his line in AAA to .236/.275/.525 for a very SLG-heavy .800 OPS. Not bad for a 22 year old's first nine games at the level.
His plate discipline worries me though. He’ll get chewed up in the ML if he can’t develop there….
Which IMO is why there should be no need to rush him to the majors unless there was absolutely no other option. Maybe he gets a taste as one of the two players called up in September, but hopefully not before.
We all gotta get used to the idea that he's probably always going to be a guy who hacks. He's just more comfortable that way. The good news is he's still not striking out very much - 20% so far in limited PA at AAA. That'll certainly go up in the majors, but I don't think he'll be a guy who strikes out 25% or more of the time.
He'll put the ball in play enough, and makes a lot of hard contact. He won't post an OBP over .350, or maybe even over .300 for a few years, but once he settles in he should post slugging percentages in the .420-.450 range - more than good enough to justify his defense and his speed on the basepaths. He'll look a lot like Wong, I think, just with fewer K's.
He swings and misses in the zone a lot. The lack of K's is probably a reflection of the fact that talent wise, he's a lot better than the pitchers he's facing and he can afford to miss a few hacks in the zone and still not strike out much.
That likely changes a good bit when he faces people who know how to pitch and have good stuff (most MLB pitchers).
I like him a lot as a prospect and believe he's a no doubt major leaguer, but if he doesn't adjust, he's "just" an excellent defensive CF who you hide at the bottom of the order. If he can improve the in-zone whiffs, he has the ceiling of an all-star.
That likely changes a good bit when he faces people who know how to pitch and have good stuff (most MLB pitchers).
I like him a lot as a prospect and believe he's a no doubt major leaguer, but if he doesn't adjust, he's "just" an excellent defensive CF who you hide at the bottom of the order. If he can improve the in-zone whiffs, he has the ceiling of an all-star.
I agree there's no reason to rush him at all. As far as September goes, with only two extra roster spots (as opposed to up to 14) and the minor league season now running through September, I don't think we're going to see guys like Rafaela called up for the proverbial "cup of coffee" anymore. I think it's going to be more or less like the rest of the season operates. Rafaela will get called when there's a need and they feel he's ready, not before. I suspect that will be next season unless something catastrophic happens to the big league roster in the meantime.
I could see him as a bad Harrison Bader circa 2022. .250/.294/.356 BB of 4.8%, k rate of 19.8% to start, but still a 1.5 fWAR player due to his defense and base running.
Bader improved his offense to above average enough to be a really solid all around player. I'd be happy with that.
That's where he started though. ZIPs theee year projections have Rafaela as a.750 OPS player. That's a big difference maker, especially with the make-up of our outfield. Obviously there's no guarantees.
the soxpropsects podcast recently pointed out Michael Taylor as what to expect if Rafeala doesn't improve (in terms of total value, not offensive approach). Being an excellent defender at center can carry a person a long way.
Rafeala is such an interesting prospect because he's so advanced defensively he could very easily have a 10 year career in the majors without ever improving offensively, but he also has enough natural talent that people would probably be disappointed by that outcome.
I'm bearish on him becoming a good hitter. But if he can post wRC of 90 (instead of 80, ala Taylor) that's a very long career as a starting major league CF. Anything above 100, and that's a borderline all-star quality CF.
Rafeala is such an interesting prospect because he's so advanced defensively he could very easily have a 10 year career in the majors without ever improving offensively, but he also has enough natural talent that people would probably be disappointed by that outcome.
I'm bearish on him becoming a good hitter. But if he can post wRC of 90 (instead of 80, ala Taylor) that's a very long career as a starting major league CF. Anything above 100, and that's a borderline all-star quality CF.
JBJ had 3 seasons with BOS of 118 wRC+ (in between a bunch of negative offensive seasons), so he had some notably above average offensive years. In AA/AAA he was 127/137. While he's still young, CR has only been 119 and 108 in his two seasons in AA (102 in AAA but only 45 PAs).
JBJ also had a consistent 8-10% walk rate as long as he was with the Sox (13/11% in AA/AAA). CR has been 5-6% in the upper minors.
Which is all to say I think the floor is a lot lower, even if we can dream on youth since CR made AAA a year younger than JBJ.
JBJ’s career is likely over, at a 82 OPS+. Which is pretty much the same as Michael Taylor (81).
I imagine that has more to do with the relative health of the farm 10 years ago and now, as well as JBJ getting a later start simply because he was drafted out of college rather than signed as an 17 year old.
Rafaela made AAA in his sixth professional season. JBJ made AAA in his second professional season.
It's funny you say that. In the most recent SoxProspects episode, they cite the bad-hitting version of JBJ as an outcome if Rafaela can't refine his approach in AAA. They also said to not be surprised if he gets 300-400+ PAs at the AAA level in order to have the best chance to refine his approach.
I think there are quotes directly from Rafaela about how they're working on his approach in this Globe article (which they also referenced on the pod) but someone with a subscription would have to pull them.
I was able to copy the text before being paywalled:
MINOR DETAILS
Ceddanne Rafaela and the art of teaching of a hitter not to swing
By Alex Speier Globe Staff,Updated June 15, 2023, 3:47 p.m.
Recent improvements in his game may have Ceddanne Rafaela nearing a promotion to Triple A.GWINN DAVIS/GREENVILLE DRIVE/GWINN DAVIS
Ceddanne Rafaela embodies one of the most paradoxical aspects of player development: Gifted hitters sometimes need to learn how and when not to swing.
Rafaela is one of the best prospects in the Red Sox system. At Double A Portland, he has solidified his status as the best defensive player in the organization and one of the best in the minors, a big league-caliber shortstop and elite center fielder.
At a time when the game prizes speed, the 22-year-old is tied for third in Double A with 27 steals. Despite his unassuming 5-foot-9-inch, 165-pound stature, he has the bat speed to juice the ball.
“He’s electrifying,” said Portland hitting coach Doug Clark. “I just can’t wait for all the people in New England and all around the world that root for the Red Sox to see this young talent. You’re going to want to watch this young guy play.
“This is the one that you don’t want to leave the seat and go grab a hot dog when he’s at bat or even when he’s playing defense. He can change the dynamic, even the results of games, every time he’s out there and moving around.”
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And yet Rafaela has been in Double A for just over a calendar year. Though he entered spring training as a candidate for Triple A after posting a .278/.324/.500 line with 12 homers and 33 extra-base hits in 71 games with Portland last year, the Sox sent him back to Double A with a clear focal area of his development.
“Of course it was my swing decisions,” Rafaela said.
Rafaela is tied for third in Double A with 27 steals.JIM DAVIS/GLOBE STAFF
Rafaela had one of the highest chase rates in Double A last year. While he posted strong numbers at age 21, evaluators felt his willingness to swing at pitches out of the zone would make him vulnerable at higher levels.
The Sox saw a player with a chance to be an impactful everyday center fielder, but with a need for growth.
They have tried to work with Rafaela to be more selective; in spring training, for instance, they at times told Rafaela he could swing only once per at-bat.
“We’re trying to make sure that he’s internally thinking about when he does swing, he wants to make sure that at-bat ends with that one swing, instead of having to take three or four swings to end the at-bat on his terms,” said Clark.
“He wants to hit the ball hard and far, and making sure that he gets those pitches to do it on, it’s important. Understanding that starts to mold an approach.
“That was one of those exercises we like to do with some players where we find that they’re kind of out there just trying to chase hits. We start to reel them back a little bit to watch the game from a little bit more of a constraint-driven at-bat.”
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Of course, putting constraints on a hitter can be counterintuitive and even uncomfortable.
That was certainly the case for Rafaela, who both in spring training and over the first five weeks of the season in Portland not only continued to chase but also seemed tentative when he did swing, resulting in late contact and a lot of ground balls. In his first 26 games, he hit just .236/.263/.327 with a 25 percent strikeout rate and 4 percent walk rate.
“[Being tentative] was a bit of a problem at the beginning of the season,” Rafaela said in May. “I wasn’t really pulling the trigger. I wasn’t, ‘Yes, yes, no.’ I was more like, ‘No, no, yes.’ I was missing balls, swinging and missing.
“So I switched how I am, just keep doing my thing [attacking pitches], and just letting the bad ones go. I’m starting to get it right now.”
Rafaela offered that assessment in mid-May. Three days later, he went 2 for 3 with a pair of walks, marking the start of a 26-game stretch entering Thursday in which he hit .337/.388/.525 with a 15 percent strikeout rate and 8 percent walk rate.
The Sox believe the surge reflects improvements in pitch recognition and approach, as well as purposeful work behind the scenes that will give Rafaela a foundation to compete against a higher level of competition. A promotion to Triple A could be nearing.
Rafaela, seen here in 2022 with the Red Sox' Class A affiliate in Greenville, is considered one of the top prospects in the system.GWINN DAVIS/GREENVILLE DRIVE/GWINN DAVIS
“His training off the field has been great,” said farm director Brian Abraham. “It’s been consistent. He’s worked his butt off.
“He’s very aware of who he is and where he needs to go to have more success at the upper levels. He’s certainly pushing. He’s starting to show that he’s close to being ready for it.”
That nearing moment reflects Rafaela’s willingness to compromise his short-term results at the start of the season in order to emerge as a better hitter.
“I’m really impressed by just the maturation process that he’s gone under as somebody who’s been kind of thrust into the prospect limelight and someone who has really taken on that responsibility being a face of the organization and the upcoming prospects that we have,” said Clark.
“He has definitely understood what he needs to work on and continues to evolve at a rapid pace right under our fingernails.”
Three up
Lefthander Chris Murphy has excelled since his move to the bullpen. In four relief appearances (three in Triple A, one in the big leagues), he has yet to allow an earned run in 10⅓ innings while striking out 14 and walking two.
Three down
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @alexspeier.
I don't think I get either of your points. Are you saying CR wouldn't have made AAA for Sox in 2013? (seems unlikely they don't make room for any top-100 prospect when they think he's ready for AAA). Or are you saying a wRC+ of 100 is different in 2013 because the system was weaker? (wRC+ is normalized to league-wide stats so I don't think that makes sense).
Why does the college part matter? JBJ developed by playing good ball in college. Rafaela developed in the low minors. Regardless of where they trained, CR is a year younger so has more opportunity to expand than if he was putting up these same stats at 23.
I'm saying that CR making it to AAA at a younger age than JBJ is not an apples-to-apples comparison and it is indicative of nothing.
Yeah I think that was my thought. I recognize that JBJ had some good hitting periods, but I would imagine when most of us think of JBJ, we remember a sublime defensive CF who struggled at the plate. Because he was so valuable on defense, we were able to look past the hitting flaws (for a while) and find a spot for him in the everyday lineup. I would hope, at the very least, that that is what we get out of C-Note. My guess is we actually get a bit more upside at the plate but maybe not “the greatest Red Sox CF of my lifetime” in the field. Saw him smoke a ball to right center today on tv and he actually gave me Mookie vibes but I don’t dare go there yet.
When I was looking for comps, Taylor was the other guy I was looking at, though I think his positional utility and better contact skills gives him a slightly higher floor.
This thread deserves a progress update:
1) Rafaela just hit a home run in 5 straight games (August 1-5)
2) Strikeout rate has crept up a bit from AA (22.2 from 20.7%) but not bad for a 22 year-old. Walk rate has remained consistent (5.2%).
3) Possibly the best sign I've seen is his willingness to hit the ball the other way. His HR streak ended today, but he had two opposite field ropes (link here). Great sign that he's not just trying to pull everything (as his HR videos might lead you to believe--to be fair he's 5'9" 165 so he should be trying to pull the ball to hit HRs).
4) Has it been mentioned that his middle name appears to be Chipper? Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela.
Beginning to think he makes the team out of spring training next year. Yoshida should really DH much of the time and Duvall is an UFA. Even if Verdugo does take the QO there could be a spot for him in the lineup if Turner can play 2b (or at least as a spot starter if not).
1) Rafaela just hit a home run in 5 straight games (August 1-5)
2) Strikeout rate has crept up a bit from AA (22.2 from 20.7%) but not bad for a 22 year-old. Walk rate has remained consistent (5.2%).
3) Possibly the best sign I've seen is his willingness to hit the ball the other way. His HR streak ended today, but he had two opposite field ropes (link here). Great sign that he's not just trying to pull everything (as his HR videos might lead you to believe--to be fair he's 5'9" 165 so he should be trying to pull the ball to hit HRs).
4) Has it been mentioned that his middle name appears to be Chipper? Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela.
Beginning to think he makes the team out of spring training next year. Yoshida should really DH much of the time and Duvall is an UFA. Even if Verdugo does take the QO there could be a spot for him in the lineup if Turner can play 2b (or at least as a spot starter if not).
His game-tying homer in the 9th yesterday was oppo, too.
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1687994216998174720
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1687994216998174720
But yeah, he's been raking since the promotion...
135 PAs
.328 BA
.379 OBP
.688 SLG
1.067 OPS
11 homers
So all 5 off of the Mets AAA pitching staff?
I’m curious as to the opposition strength; we’ve seen guys have big weeks against bad ml teams based on the new schedule.
I’m curious as to the opposition strength; we’ve seen guys have big weeks against bad ml teams based on the new schedule.
Yes. The relief pitcher he homered off of in the 9th on Saturday struck out the side after the homer (Dalbec/Abreu/Scott). Sean Reid-Foley, 27. Has 102.1 mlb innings with a 4.66 ERA & a 3.65 ERA in AAA this season.
His homer on Friday was against another relief pitcher, Dennis Santana, 27, who has 147.2 MLB innings with a 5.18 ERA & has a 4.94 ERA in AAA this year.
His homer Thursday was against 27 y/o career Minor Leaguer David Griffin who got absolutely shelled that game for 9 runs in 3 innings, raising his AAA ERA to 8.31 this season.
His homer Wednesday was against 30 y/o reliever Sam Coonrod. Coonrod has pitched 3 innings in AAA this season & that's his only run allowed. He has 97.1 career MLB innings with a 5.27 ERA & 451.1 Minor League innings with a 3.73 ERA.
His homer Tuesday was against Eric Orze, 25. It was the only run Orze allowed in 3 innings of work. He was the Mets 5th round pick in '20 & has a 6.35 ERA this season.
So...definitely a mixed bag, but a fairly experienced group overall & not all scrubs. But 5 games in a row with a homer is pretty impressive regardless.
Just for fun, here's a bit more detail on each homer during the streak.
Tuesday - 93.1 4-seam fastball, higher than the zone & outer third, 98.7 mph, 359 feet to right field (0-2 count)
Wednesday - 83.9 curveball, outer edge, 102.5 mph, 395 feet to right center (1-1 count)
Thursday - 90.3 4-seam fastball, up & in but a strike, 91.5 mph, 365 feet to left center (3-0 count)
Friday - 96 sinker, higher than zone & inner third, 106 mph, 392 feet to left (0-0 count)
Saturday - 94.8 4-seam fastball, outer edge, 102.7 mph, 366 feet to right (3-1 count)
Really wide range.
3 fastballs, 1 sinker, 1 curveball
2 to left, 3 to right
5 different counts
4 different pitch locations
3 that were strikes, 2 would have been balls
Tuesday - 93.1 4-seam fastball, higher than the zone & outer third, 98.7 mph, 359 feet to right field (0-2 count)
Wednesday - 83.9 curveball, outer edge, 102.5 mph, 395 feet to right center (1-1 count)
Thursday - 90.3 4-seam fastball, up & in but a strike, 91.5 mph, 365 feet to left center (3-0 count)
Friday - 96 sinker, higher than zone & inner third, 106 mph, 392 feet to left (0-0 count)
Saturday - 94.8 4-seam fastball, outer edge, 102.7 mph, 366 feet to right (3-1 count)
Really wide range.
3 fastballs, 1 sinker, 1 curveball
2 to left, 3 to right
5 different counts
4 different pitch locations
3 that were strikes, 2 would have been balls
They have Verdugo for one more year. I think they probably deal him this winter and pencil in Little Rafi as the starting RF for next season. You can probably get a pretty good return for Verdugo and Little Rafi probably improves the RF defense (not a knock against Dugie, he's been great this year, but Rafaela is almost certainly going to be better).
You could see something like a Yoshida-Duran-Rafaela-Refsnyder-Abreu OF, probably with a few veteran minor league FA types added for depth. Maybe a better defender than I assume Abreu is (just looking at him) for the fifth spot.
That gives you a great mix of handedness and some pretty good defensive configurations when Yoshida DHs.
That gives you a great mix of handedness and some pretty good defensive configurations when Yoshida DHs.
That's what I meant by saying "even if Verdugo does take the QO". Expectation from the SoSH crowd is Sox will offer QO and nothing more. Possible he accepts, but might get a better offer.
There is no QO here. Verdugo is a Red Sox in 2024 unless they trade or release him.