Ceddanne Rafaela promoted to AAA
- Thread starter soxhop411
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I'd be completely against that. From all appearances he's too important. Let him adjust to the big leagues, and big league pitching, without jerking him around between positions.
It might come down to need, and whether they truly believe in this version of Duran. I think we'll learn what they're thinking when we see what he plays at AAA.
Might come down to which position is the greater need for the Sox at the time. Similar to how Betts debuted in CF despite spending most of his minor league career at 2B.
Seems like it has to be CF if they believe in Mayer. Duran screams sell high for pitching this winter, to me at least.
Care to show your work?
He's already the best defensive CF in our system & probably the best SS, too. The adjustments he is going to have to make are being in the Majors & facing Major League pitching. The more chances he gets to get out there & do that, the better for his development.
& chances are, running him out at one position every day isn't going to be the best thing for the team so he'll either be being used sub-optimally or not used as much as he could be to get him in front of Major League pitching as often as possible.
Of course, they could trade Duran or I guess Verdugo & completely open up an every day CF role, but that seems aggressive without proof of concept.
Who knows? I just think his defensive skills are such that playing him at 2 different defensive positions will be less damaging for his growth than not being out there regularly.
Ok. Currently they have 4 ML outfielders under contract for next year. 3 are lefties - Duran, Verdugo & Yoshida. Their wRC+ against righties are 120, 142 & 131 respectively.
For MI we currently have Story, Arroyo, Chang, Reyes, Hamilton, Valdez etc locked up for next year & Mayer probably in '25.
It's possible to envision him as the every day starter in CF. Against righties that would mean Duran in left, Verdugo in right & Yoshida at DH. Against lefties prob Ref every day & rotate between Verdugo & Yoshida for 1 spot (unless they just want to make Yoshida the full time DH I guess). That's all fine. The problem is... what do they do if Rafaela fails because they don't have another right hand hitting OF option around & that wouldn't be a significant area of investment if they're planning on handing the job to Rafaela.
Similarly, he could be the every day SS, they could invest in a right handed hitting OF & have Story be the every day 2B. But if he fails there, we're in a similar situation to this year where we have to rely on an Arroyo/Valdez platoon at 2B or similar (& Story's health), & even if it works, the hope would be for Mayer to take over by '25 & then he would have to be bounced back to the OF anyway.
I just think it makes a lot more sense for roster construction if they plan on having him ready to work at either or both spots & that extra flexibility they create by having him be an option at either, but relying on him at neither, is their best chance to put together a complete & excellent roster for next year.
& I think he's so skilled defensively that playing both wouldn't hurt his development. But I could be wrong on any/all of that. Who knows?
Your turn to show your work.
Probably too early to start a 2024 thread, but is anyone else here getting irrationally excited about next year? Bello is a stud in the making, and Whitlock/Houck have made huge steps forward. Casas/Duran/Wong look like league-average players at worst, which is all you need alongside Yoshida, Verdugo, Devers, Turner, Story. Rafaela potentially up as a rookie with Jansen/Martin still your high-leverage guys and Winck/Crawford (and Pivetta?) as long men. If Chris Sale is healthy this team could be a juggernaut.
Turner won’t be here but the overall point stands. The pieces are coming together.
Plus we have like $80m to spend if we're so inclined. & hopefully a healthy Schreiber/Mills/Kelly in the pen & guys like Ryan Fernandez & Luis Guerrero should be ready to contribute & maybe AJ Politi.
We're going to have to jump through a lot of 40-man roster hoops. Will be a fun off season.
We're going to have to jump through a lot of 40-man roster hoops. Will be a fun off season.
Turner probably won't be here, but it wouldn't shock me if both sides wanted another year. He seems like a really good veteran presence on a young team.
I don’t see “juggernaut” talent here but you do see a light at the end of the tunnel with respect to the farm starting to bare fruit.
Ok, good enough for me. He can be a CF primarily. If he can hit well enough to stick around.
I don't know if it's irrational. I also don't see "juggernaut". But I see a team that we can definitely be excited about.
Wong currently is tied for #6 in MLB in bWAR for catchers (1.7 bWAR). He's tied with Rutschman, of all people, and Wong has that number in just 58 games, while Rutschman has played 73. So same bWAR in 15 fewer games. We have every reason to be excited about Wong.
Casas, meanwhile...
- First 26 games (through May 1): 96 pa, 3 hr, 8 rbi, .128/.281/.282/.563
- Last 43 games (since May 1): 163 pa, 6 hr, 19 rbi, .268/.356/.465/.821
Look at his ops for the last 43 games. Currently, if you look at all MLB rankings for first basemen, an .821 ops would rank #9. So since May 1, he's been hitting at a level that would rank ninth in all of MLB among 1b. That's much better than average. And he's just a rookie.
Bello's performance and development need no further description. Dude has been fantastic. Houck hasn't been as good as people may think, but he's showing himself to be a viable MLB starter. Whitlock...same thing. Not as good as it feels like he is. He's been very up and down. But on the whole, definitely encouraging.
Now, Jarren Duran. Interesting. We all know how overmatched he looked prior to this year (53 ops+ in 2021, 77 ops+ in 2022), but he came out strong this year and after a down turn, has rebounded once again. Currently has a .791 ops, 111 ops+, and is playing much better defense than he ever has before. Plus, he's an absolute menace on the base paths, with 14 steals vs. just one caught stealing. And he takes a lot of extra bases besides steals. He's become...good. Who knows if this is the "real" Jarren Duran, but right now he looks like an actually good major league player. In just 59 games, he's at 1.0 bWAR. He's "on pace" to accumulate about 2.5 bWAR, which isn't all-star material of course, but it's not bad at all. He currently sits #21 in all MLB in bWAR for CF.
The question is: is it better to move Duran right now when it looks like he's finally figuring it all out? The physical tools are tantalizing, obviously. He might be able to get Boston quite a haul on the trade market. Young, cost-controlled, with tons of physical talent that plays well in the new modern game. He could be worth quite a bit, I would think.
If they move him, they're basically saying that Rafaela is their future CF. Kiké can handle it for now (it's his best defensive position anyway) and then they move Rafaela there in 2024 or most likely 2025. Or they keep Duran but then they gotta figure out the CF situation for the future.
Anyway...it's a good problem to have, when too much talent is making its way to the majors that there isn't room for everyone.
I'm still not ready (and I don't think Bloom, wisely, is either) ready to throw in the towel and trading Duran would be doing that IMO. I'd prefer to hold on to him and keep Rafaela at CF in AAA. He needs to show he can hit there but I'd assume even if he does, that he'd have a slow transition to the majors. Hopefully a resigned/extended Verdugo will have an OF next year of Duran and Rafaela in CF, Yoshida and Duran in LF and Verdugo mostly in RF with Refsnyder floating around all 4. That looks to be a good defensive OF with some speed and power (still lacking in the HR power I'd like to see but generally would be good). If Cedanne can show he belongs at the big show, then I'd look into dealing Duran and just hope he doesn't regress and lose some of his accumulated trade potential. Same situation with Mayer where I'd rather not just toss him into the starting position at SS for '24 but that spot is a little tougher since none of the current SS guys has the equivalent of Duran at CF heading into '24.
I don't see why they would make him a SS with Mayer in the wings. There is a non-zero chance Marcelo breaks camp with Boston next spring, and a very good chance, imo, that he is here by mid-year. Rafaela will be a CF/UT and hopefully become a better hitting JBJ, or a poor man's Mookie.
I can see a scenario where Rafaella arrives in the majors first and plays SS until Mayer arrives and then bumps out to CF.
We all like Mayer as a prospect (and for good reason) but I think it would be unwise for the team to start jettisoning young talent that has shown it can produce either at the major league level or the upper minors levels while Mayer still has a .177/.258/.418/.676 line in his first ~month at the AA level.
Now, if someone Seattle says "Jarren Duran is our long term answer in the OF with Rodriguez and Kelenic" and you can get someone like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller for him, yes, absolutely sell now. Short of that though, I really don't get the need to deal off young players from this roster based on someone who might be ready in a year or two.
Also, just as an aside, the Sox (rightly or wrongly) have continued to play lots of prospects at multiple positions in the minors, and they've continued to do this as they advance them through the system. Is this hurting their ability to adjust at higher levels OR is it getting them ready for major league careers at multiple positions - I have no idea. Obviously it didn't hurt Betts at the MLB level but it clearly impacted Bogaerts, so it's most likely an individualized basis and can't be given to generalizations.
For what it's worth, Rafaela has continued to play both SS and CF in the minors. Hamilton has as well (2b and SS). Same with Abreu (all over the OF). Again, I don't know if that is wise and I don't know if it would continue at the MLB level, but it's something they've had those players continue to do as they adjust to higher levels of pitching, and I see the rationale behind it, regardless of if it works out or not.
With the dimensions of Fenway Park, and the number of "up the middle" prospects in the high minors, I could totally see something like:
OF - Duran; OF - Verdugo; 3b - Devers; MI - Story; DH - Yoshida; 1b - Casas; OF - Rafaela/Abreu; MI - Valdez/Yorke/Meidroth/ Rafaela; C - Wong being the plan sooner than later.
Granted, I think that hypothetical "team" still lacks a second true middle of the order presence and should absolutely try to find one, but it's also a heck of a lot more interesting than what we've been throwing out at various points this (and last) season.
Now, if someone Seattle says "Jarren Duran is our long term answer in the OF with Rodriguez and Kelenic" and you can get someone like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller for him, yes, absolutely sell now. Short of that though, I really don't get the need to deal off young players from this roster based on someone who might be ready in a year or two.
Also, just as an aside, the Sox (rightly or wrongly) have continued to play lots of prospects at multiple positions in the minors, and they've continued to do this as they advance them through the system. Is this hurting their ability to adjust at higher levels OR is it getting them ready for major league careers at multiple positions - I have no idea. Obviously it didn't hurt Betts at the MLB level but it clearly impacted Bogaerts, so it's most likely an individualized basis and can't be given to generalizations.
For what it's worth, Rafaela has continued to play both SS and CF in the minors. Hamilton has as well (2b and SS). Same with Abreu (all over the OF). Again, I don't know if that is wise and I don't know if it would continue at the MLB level, but it's something they've had those players continue to do as they adjust to higher levels of pitching, and I see the rationale behind it, regardless of if it works out or not.
With the dimensions of Fenway Park, and the number of "up the middle" prospects in the high minors, I could totally see something like:
OF - Duran; OF - Verdugo; 3b - Devers; MI - Story; DH - Yoshida; 1b - Casas; OF - Rafaela/Abreu; MI - Valdez/Yorke/Meidroth/ Rafaela; C - Wong being the plan sooner than later.
Granted, I think that hypothetical "team" still lacks a second true middle of the order presence and should absolutely try to find one, but it's also a heck of a lot more interesting than what we've been throwing out at various points this (and last) season.
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One of our Yankee brethren would have to fill in my knowledge gaps here but Cashman has made a lot of trades in recent years (with varying degrees of success) dealing from deeper prospect depth to supplement the MLB roster and clear out future 40-man/Rule 5 crunches. I wonder if Chaim is considering similar deals given how much of our top 60 (like, all of it) seems pretty interesting.
Fwiw all the underlying stuff on Mayer is that he'll be just fine despite not great actual sss results.
View: https://twitter.com/JamesDunneSP/status/1672923205802029058
I do agree that pre-jettisoning people to pre-emptively clear a logjam that doesn't exist yet is unnecessary.
I wouldn't move Duran, he fits the hopefully-opening-soon competitive window and has the athleticism that teams will be leaning on more now. Also he's been in the majors long enough that the adjustments back and forth have happened -- this is probably more or less who he is (slightly inflated for his hot start). Also is there a convo for him in RF? I get that it's more than just space, you have to play smart out there, but the Sox have often prioritized RF defense because of Fenway's dimensions, and Duran's athleticism fits that bill. Anyway, Rafaela probably isn't going to push for a regular job for another year or so, even if he makes quick progress.
I'd say even without the underlying data, we shouldn't be judging the guy on about 3 weeks worth of at bats immediately after jumping up a level. Rare is the player that excels immediately, and plenty of great players have struggled at every new level before finding their legs.
As for the idea of trading Duran in a sell-high move, isn't that by definition trading him for intriguing pieces (like the aforementioned Woo or Miller) that should tangibly improve the ballclub? I don't think anyone is suggesting he be moved for spare parts and lottery tickets. That a guy like Rafaela exists in the system is exactly what gives Bloom the flexibility to pull the trigger on a Duran trade if the right opportunity presents itself. You don't commit to moving him no matter what but you also don't shut down any and all trade talk about him because Rafaela is as yet unproven.
Yeah, I suppose. If it turns out we have an actual logjam in the OF and are thinner elsewhere, sure. But with his speed I think he might end up moving the needle a lot more than the guys you'd get back, and I'd rather not trade him for two decent players. [Also know a Mariner fan or two who thinks Miller is not worth the hype, but anyway...]
I have been pounding the table on the spring tryout since before the season began. He is basically on the exact track at nearly the same age that Julio Rodriguez was in 2021. Julio finished the season in AA, impressed in spring the next year, and never touched AAA. I would not be at all surprised to see Mayer take the same path.
Eh, I mean if he was striking out a ton & not making good contact, it would certainly be a lot more concerning.
& I'm not sure if this was in response to what I said on trading players, but I agree. If someone values a player more than you do, there should always be a solution that works for everyone. I don't think there's a need to do things like move Nick Yorke for whatever because there might be a MI logjam in a couple years. But if someone wants him more than you do? Sure, no harm in listening. Same with Duran or literally anyone else on the roster.
Can we tap the brakes here? Mayer hasn't even been in Portland a month. And I see no reason to think he's another JRod. Why rush the guy just because we're unhappy about a .500 major league team?
Because if you stick to actual outcomes and reasonable, likely things, you run out of topics to talk about pretty quickly. There are unlimited whatifs.
1st, I'm not unhappy about another .500 baseball team. Outside of one post in a game thread yesterday I am not sure what about my posting history would make you think that.
2nd, I am not advocating rushing him, just stating that he is on the same track as a 20 year old that J-Rod was (A+ to start the year, AA midway through). If Mayer isn't ready in the spring, then he isn't ready, but he is a very polished 20 year old and has the leadership qualities (from what I have read) that could lead to him being a fast mover, so if he is ready in the spring, I see no reason to hold him back, either.
Yeah, to be clear in no way am I down on Mayer. Quite the contrary. Just that on this circumstance I agree totally with @JM3, you don't need to move young, cost-controlled, producing players right now because you might have a log jam there in a year or two.
Obviously if someone comes at the team about anyone with a massive over-pay, they should listen. Duran. Casas. Bello. Verdugo. Mayer himself. Anyone. But I don't think it makes any sense to actively try to move on from young players that are producing in the majors just to create a hole in the line up until said prospect comes up and forces the issue. Especially with Verdugo only under contract for one more season.
However, to circle back to Rafaela and the topic of this thread, I do think the idea of a long term situation in the OF with Verdugo, Duran and Rafaela in some capacity with Yoshida getting plenty of time at DH isn't exactly a bad plan.
Obviously if someone comes at the team about anyone with a massive over-pay, they should listen. Duran. Casas. Bello. Verdugo. Mayer himself. Anyone. But I don't think it makes any sense to actively try to move on from young players that are producing in the majors just to create a hole in the line up until said prospect comes up and forces the issue. Especially with Verdugo only under contract for one more season.
However, to circle back to Rafaela and the topic of this thread, I do think the idea of a long term situation in the OF with Verdugo, Duran and Rafaela in some capacity with Yoshida getting plenty of time at DH isn't exactly a bad plan.
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Every time Rafaela gets brought up on the SoxProspects podcast, they're quick to mention that he has a lot of work to do on his approach. He seems to be guessing on pitches, and pre-deciding when he's going to take rather than recognizing and laying off certain pitches. He makes up for it with a great swing and quick hands, but that's going to get exposed. And that takes time to improve on (if it can even be fixed).
With how thin the Sox are at shortstop and how bad Hamilton's defensive reputation is, I can see why it makes sense to bring Rafaela to AAA right now but I really don't think he's a serious part of the conversation until 2025.
With how thin the Sox are at shortstop and how bad Hamilton's defensive reputation is, I can see why it makes sense to bring Rafaela to AAA right now but I really don't think he's a serious part of the conversation until 2025.
Rafaela's AAA debut will have to wait a day due to unplayable field conditions in Buffalo...
View: https://twitter.com/BuffaloBisons/status/1674120115896434688
View: https://twitter.com/BuffaloBisons/status/1674120115896434688
Previously he had been playing SS once a week. They might be shifting gears...
View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1674914466671243264
But more likely they just need IF more with Hamilton in Boston & Valdez on the IL.
View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1674914466671243264
But more likely they just need IF more with Hamilton in Boston & Valdez on the IL.
He does seem pretty good at SS, though...
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1674952820435435521
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1674952820435435521
