Cast Judgment on Ben Cherington's Week of Pitching Mayhem

[MentalDisabldLst]

So, now that we know the minor leaguer in the Miley deal, I think we can at least give our ex-ante evaluation of what our GM hath wrought.  Much digital ink has been spilled here weighing the pros and cons of RDLR and Webster vs Miley, of Cespedes et al vs a Porcello rental, and prior to the Jon Lester signing saga, I don't think there have been more posts here on the movement of a player since L'Affaire Kevin Millar in the 02-03 offseason.
 
Knowing what we know now, how did BC do for the Olde Towne Team this week?
 
And yes, I didn't include the Justin Masterson signing because I'm limited to three questions per poll.  But that's a low-risk flyer for one year, so it seems like the three decisions here are the most important ones Ben made.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

I'm not crazy about the idea of winning or losing a trade. Of course you don't want to lose but ultimately the best outcome is both teams fairing well. A fair trade should lead to both gm's keeping open the possibility for future business. That said I voted the Sox "won" all trades because the team is significantly better this week than last.

 

[mBiferi]

I think you should add Masterson's move to the poll too. 
 
The Porcello trade is the one I like the most. We traded from a position of strength to fill an area of need, love it. Speier and Wilson were just spare parts in there, and I really think that Porcello can do an incredible job with Panda-Xander-Pedroia-Naps behind him and continue to improve. The Tigers got a nice power hitting OF to replace Hunter so I think this trade is as even as it can get.
 
Masterson is the most intriguing for me, if he can regain his 2012-2013 form the rotation looks incredibly deep, specially since I'm counting on Buchholz being good before hitting the market. Just a hunch though.
 
edit: Nevermind, I didn't read the reason why you didn't include Masterson's move. My bad.

 

[Rasputin]

I don't think winning and losing is the way to look at this, especially when looking at the individual details.
 
I've come around a bit on the Miley trade, but I'm still lukewarm about it at best. I don't particularly see how Masterson is a good fit.
 
And yet, I think it's very clear that the rotation is a whole hell of a lot better now than it was a week ago and I think it's going to be a pretty damn good one. It won't be the best, it won't be the worst, but I think it will be in the top third or so of AL rotations, or maybe the top of the second third, and that's if they don't add someone, which I think we all think they will.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

In addition to all being ground ball pitchers, the other thing all three have in common is being groundball pitchers on teams with bad defenses. 
 
I think the bottom line with RDLR and Webster is that they are now at an age in which a team has to decide, are we excited enough about this guy to give him a real shot at starting. And if the answer is no, then they need to find a new employer who will give them that chance or move to the bullpen. Our answer is no. Nobody wanted to see a rotation with either of these guys in it, nobody was really all that interested in giving them even a prominent bullpen role, and they are no longer at an age in which we can really pretend that they are going to turn into something different with a little more minor league experience. Even as depth SPs, other players have either passed them (Owens), or are about to pass them (Rodriguez), or are basically equivalent to them (Barnes, Ranaudo) such that I don't think they will be missed when it comes time to call someone up. I think their value to the organization was pretty close to nothing, and their value as trade chips was pretty low as well. 
 
Turning those two pieces into Wade Miley was a major coup - Miley is relatively young for a guy who has such a well established performance level, still has a little more upside left and he's cost-controlled.
 
I've already posted by thoughts on Porcello, the one thing I'd add is that Steamer has Porcello with a higher WAR than Cole Hamels. Overall, I would absolutely bet on Porcello to be a better pitcher from 25-30 than Hamels from 31-36. And we got him for a a guy who we needed to trade. 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I like all of the moves.  I don't necessarily think the Red Sox "won" the trades, but they are each good additions and none of them were overpays.
 
Masterson at $10 million is a better deal than, say, Dempster for 2 years, $26 million. At worst he's a 5th starter, but to the extent that his 2014 was injury-marred, there is a chance that he's a bargain.
 
Miley's a good addition.  Nearly 600 innings in his three years in the rotation.  Coming off of a down year, but I don't see any reason to think it's anything but a blip.  I would have liked to see RDLR and Webster get more of a shot, but at this point neither is a lock to e a successful major league pitcher (never mind starting pitcher).  I don't worry too much about Miley coming to Fenway from the NL because he has some success in a great hitter's park in Arizona.
 
Porcello was probably the best deal.  Cespedes had no real role on this team and Porcello has more upside than the other pickups.  He's young enough - and has gotten by pitching in front of some brutal defenses - that a big step forward from him is not out of the question.
 
As for Lester, I don't know.  I think they did bungle the situation with him in the offseason, and I kind of figure that if they were going to go to $135 they might as well have gone a bit higher.  On the other hand, they do maintain some flexibility ging forward that they would not have had.  
 
All in all, it's been a great offseason.  The fact that the Sox have given up minimal assets to add Porcello, Miley, Masterson, Hanley, and Sandoval is nothing short of incredible.

 

[jsinger121]

I liked both trades as we get established innings eaters with upside without denting the farm system. That there is a win win in my mind.

 

[jimbobim]

If you had said before the Winter Meetings began that  " Hey guys we'll either be a world series possibly favorite if Lester resigns or have a middling rotation with the same exact flexibility to go out and get the ace type elite/guy to fill his spot out with anyone out there after this weekend? Would you have taken that ?
 
I would and I haven't seem it mentioned  a ton on this thread in particular , but these trades all could have been done in addition to Lester . I'm not saying it in a bad way about either the Red Sox or Lester but Lester atop this rotation would definitely be more favored than the Cubs are next year. Perhaps the 135 over 6 number is essentially the Adam Wrainwright inflation calculated in deal. Would it have worked ? Sure in the spring but that issue is a dead horse.
 
The Sox still have all of the flexibility in prospects and money that they had before this deal. I read Morosi on twitter yesterday and he said Kelly might be going now in a package deal for said top rotation pitcher. Masterson and Buch with one or two of those three lefties as the insurance plan could theoretically open the season with and that leaves one of the Ed Rod, Owens, Brian Johnson trio to trade. I'm not broken up at all about De La Rosa and Webster. De La Rosa mildly more intriguing but he probably ceiling wise fits in as 4th behind the three lefties.
 
Another JP Morosi article said Porcello's career roughly mirrors Homer Bailey. Funny they said that contract would have been good enough for the ace getting ready to ply his trade in Chicago. With the gammons provided Vermont thing a 110 mill contract this offseason might save the team 40 mill in the Lester scenario where he goes out and pitches his best which given his youth and trend isn't out of the question.
 
Think there is a big arm still coming. Hope it's Zimmerman     

 

[grimshaw]

IMO the Tigers lost out on a bit of value with Cespedes for Porcello unless they believe he's the final piece.  They upgraded 2-3 WAR from Hunter to Cespedes, and can keep Yoenis in LF.  They keep mortgaging the future to do so, as they need to be rebuilding the farm..
 
The salaries may not match but the QO is the main difference.  The Tigers must have projected their first round pick to be worth Alex Wilson ,Gabe Speier and the difference in cash.  This is where I think they could have done better.
 
I can't really get as good of a feel for the Miley trade because this is a new regime in Arizona led by a Hall of Famer.  They have a completely different crew evaluating their talent and they may want to move in a different direction.  Maybe  Dave Stewart can teach them kick ass fork balls or just knows they are are on field upgrades for them now.

 

[joe dokes]

Of course they "won" the trades, as things currently stand. They traded players they had no use for for guys who play positions they needed to have filled.

 

[FinanceAdvice]

At first, I did n ot understand the trade for Miley.  However, after a little research, I'm more positivie.  Heres why.
 
*Increasing ground ball rate last two season of 52%, 51% over previous years of 43%
*200 IP last 2 yrs. plus near 200 the other MLB year
* Increasing K's, 8.2/9
*Although there are a few negativ es, rising ERA 4.34 last year, rising BBs,under a new program with great or at least better defense behind him theres more of an upside IMHO
* Has proven himself, well at least in 3 years, to be a major leagur stater.  Especially in  rookie year as runner up for ROY.
 
To me Webster always look frigtherend when he pitched and whil I hoped he or RDLR would fit in as a 5th SP, I did not think it was materialzing in Boston.  I did think RDLR had better potential.
 
I LOVE the Porcello pick up but my comments on that later when I have more time.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I liked both trades as we get established innings eaters with upside without denting the farm system. That there is a win win in my mind.

You get what you pay for. In my mind it's certainly an improvement for 2015. While it doesn't take them out of the free agent market completely it does make it less likely the team signs Scherzer or Shields. I am concerned with the lack of an ace but Hamels is still out there and probably not going anywhere and the team does have the ability to get someone during the season.

Maybe Ben signs someone like Medlen or Beachy that could be the low risk high reward signing but it seems that the Sox philosophy is to find pitchers that can keep the ball on the ground and let the defense take care of the rest. It's going to be an interesting season that's really the only thing that's certain.

 

[Toe Nash]

They won the trades. If there was an option between "big-time" and "won by a little" I would have picked that for both.
 
Cespedes is the best player they gave up and he's not particularly special, nor would he be around beyond this year most likely. The prospects are pretty likely to become relievers at best. And they got solid MLB starters back.
 
I am concerned with Bogaerts' defense at shortstop given that they have nearly all groundball pitchers and their infield defense is solid or great otherwise. I hope he can be average or better. It seems like there's a chance they may be looking to add a defensive specialist mid-season.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think Bogaerts will be about league average on D.  Which, given the superb defense of Napoli, Pedroia, and Sandoval, should be sufficient to help these ground ball pitchers.  That, combined with their ability to hold the running game down (these pitchers are *great* at holding runners, and Vazquez is brilliant in this area too) should mean a great deal to Boston's run prevention.
 
I am optimistic.

 

[The Boomer]

Of course they "won" the trades, as things currently stand. They traded players they had no use for for guys who play positions they needed to have filled.

 
From the Sox's perspective, they improved with every trade for this reason.  From the perspective of the trade partners, they filled needs with players that they valued, from their perspective, at least as much if not more than what they swapped to the Sox.  If DLR turns into the next Dave Stewart or Jon Papelbon eventually, you can complain that the Sox gave up too much but this will be his unfulfilled best case upside.  However, this result will be more like swapping Jeff Bagwell for Ray Culp (remember him?) than for Larry Anderson.  Rooting for DLR and Webster to succeed with their new team is what we should hope for so that, in the future, Cherington can credibly deal with Dave Stewart and every other GM when the need arises.

 

[The Boomer]

I think Bogaerts will be about league average on D.  Which, given the superb defense of Napoli, Pedroia, and Sandoval, should be sufficient to help these ground ball pitchers.  That, combined with their ability to hold the running game down (these pitchers are *great* at holding runners, and Vazquez is brilliant in this area too) should mean a great deal to Boston's run prevention.
 
I am optimistic.

 
These sinker ball pitchers, all with proven control, theoretically could throw fewer pitches per inning than more marginally wild strikeout artists.  Starters pitching deeper into games ought to correlate, for the most part, with a more rested bullpen and more wins.

 

[benhogan]

Wade Miley, top 50 starter, controlled for 3 seasons, whats not to like?  But Arizona did a good job zeroing in on RDLR and Webster, cheap/controllable assets. RDLR is at worst a young powerful bullpen arm.  Webster has interesting stuff, who may gain confidence and time to develop in Arizona as opposed to Boston. Both guys took some lumps (and gained valuable experience) last season at the ML level, at the Red Sox expense.  This deal should be considered a win-win for both clubs.
 
The Sox should have offered a few more shekels for Lester and tried to get him at a slight discount. BUT CLEARLY the Sox Front Office has sent a message:  They will not bid market rate for free agent pitchers in their 30s, that want 4 years or longer.  Really don't expect them to be players for Shields or Scherzer.
 
Love the Porcello deal. This is the 3rd time Detroit has undervalued one of their younger, less glamorous starters over the last year.  If we ended up with Ian Kennedy, as rumored, that would have been dreadful. Cespedes had zero place with the Sox after signing Hanley, so the market knew the Sox were forced to move him.  Cespedes play in left field in Fenway was unimpressive:  he played a step in front of the track and still misplayed several fly balls, played the balls off the wall like crap and never even took a fly ball in RF which would have helped his value. Seemed liked there were some rumors/articles swirling around about a questionable attitude, which probably didn't help his trade value. His OBP was bad and for guy with a label of being a HR hitter, 20 HRs isn't terribly impressive.  I'm surprised Detroit didn't just go sign Melky and keep Porcello.  Great job by Ben & Co getting Porcello from an AL competitor before he hits his peak years.  He could be a mid-season extension candidate if he delivers.

 

[nothumb]

I think after the fourth or fifth time Webster gives up a pop-fly dinger at Chase field he's going to curl up into the fetal position and crap himself. This might be one of those scenarios where we end up feeling great about the decision to trade a guy because he goes somewhere and is almost destined to fail. So in that sense, I think we "won" the trade because I don't have to watch him put up a 3.15 ERA in Seattle or San Diego next year. (Yes this is sarcasm. Sort of.)
 
Count me in as high on both trades. I would have been willing to go to like 145 on Lester but I'm not too broken up about it.

 

[pk1627]

I like the team the Sox have put together. Even if they don't add another pitcher, this team will be in the mix. I love that they kept the kids.

With regard to Lester, I think if you're going to pay the $ for an ace, you should get one. Lester had a fantastic second half in 2013 and was key to the championship (bailed out big-time by Myers noncatch). But he's not the ace that Pedro, Clemens, Schill and Beckett were. Let's save the big $ for an ace.

 

[ivanvamp]

From 2010-2014, Hanley's SLG is .467 (career .500 slugging).  For his career, Cespedes' SLG is .464.  
 
They actually upgraded in the power department (not necessarily homers) in LF with Hanley.  Not to mention much better OBP.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
These sinker ball pitchers, all with proven control, theoretically could throw fewer pitches per inning than more marginally wild strikeout artists.  Starters pitching deeper into games ought to correlate, for the most part, with a more rested bullpen and more wins.

It's not theoretical in Porcello's case.  He was 5th in the league in P/IP and 4th in P/PA last season.

 

[benhogan]

I think Bogaerts will be about league average on D.  Which, given the superb defense of Napoli, Pedroia, and Sandoval, should be sufficient to help these ground ball pitchers.  That, combined with their ability to hold the running game down (these pitchers are *great* at holding runners, and Vazquez is brilliant in this area too) should mean a great deal to Boston's run prevention.
 
I am optimistic.

Although I don't share your optimism on Xander's defense this coming season,  I'd be happy if he is slightly below average fielding SS and doesn't cost us too many runs.
 
 Gammons did write this a few days ago:
 
"Bogaerts has spent the winter working at API in Scottsdale on his first step explosion, Sandoval was in the top third in range and defensive runs saved among major league third basemen."
 
This is the kind of work ethic, from Xander, that should make us all excited about his future and happy the Sox haven't dealt him for a pitcher this off season.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yeah benhogan, I should have been more clear.  I don't necessarily think X will be there in 2015, but I think he eventually gets there.  If he's slightly below average this year defensively but hits like I think he's capable of, I'll be very happy.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

At this point we don't know if either of the trades are "wins" in a vacuum; but in the context of the Red Sox offseason and putting the rotation together I"m encouraged by Cherington's approach. Signing Lester would have solidified the top end and made sorting out the rest of the rotation much easier; didn't happen, and the market Lester set makes it unlikely that the Sox will be able to land either of the other top FA SPs. So now if you're trying to bring in that #1 it may have to be via trade. As the Cespedes/Porcello swap shows, the impact of buying/selling from depth/scarcity can be overstated so long as the teams have a match (remember "they won't get anyone for Cespedes cos everyone knows they have to trade him"); however, you'd still rather not be trading for an ace with only two MLB starters in the rotation to begin with. Yikes.
 
So, plan B. By stocking up on Miley/Porcello/Masterson, they've got an actual rotation they could start the season with, including two innings eaters who look to be coming into their own as more than just innings eaters (Porcello + Miley), two guys who've had elite results in the past and could rebound with health (Buchholz + Masterson), and Kelly, who's still coming up to speed as a starter. If they stick with that, getting the innings eaters is particularly useful in offsetting some of the risk around Buchholz (health) and Kelly (stamina). And if they still want to add an ace, they've got flexibility to use the starters under team control in a trade package, or bump Kelly to the pen if Shields does take a short/reasonable deal. And while RDLR was a favourite, they've done it without compromising their prospect depth. I'm still miffed that it ever came to this with Lester, but that's a very solid recovery.
 
Moreover aside from what they did, it's worth noting they were reportedly a finalist for McCarthy, who looks to be signing for 4/48. Four years isn't ideal (and maybe that was Cherington's sticking point, who knows), but in this market, getting a guy who's been very, very good when using all his pitches and, despite the injury concerns, has put up over 600 IP over the past four years for $12m/year is a nice gamble IMHO. Shame it doesn't look like it'll work out, but I like the approach. (This officially concludes my McCarthy Advocacy Project 2015).
 
Edit: forgot the other positive; even if the high GB rate thing is just a coincidence, it gives us something to chew on.

 

[1918stabbedbyfoulke]

It reminds me of the heady days of Idiots and Manny Ortez when the world trembled at our relentless offense. Now they will tremble again-at our pitching staff's ground ball rate.

 

[dcmissle]

I'm ok with where we seem to be. The screw up with Lester occurred in the spring; I'm somewhat relieved they did not match the Cubs. That said, I will be pissed if they give 33 year old Shields 5 years and $100 million, as that would represent a retreat from a principled and certainly defensible position they carved out with Lester. And this has happened in the past -- the inconsistency, e.g., the inscrutable and indefensible ( at the time, not just in hindsight) Carl Crawford contract.

I think they can enter the season with this rotation, provided they do a good job with the pen, and look to add in season from a position of strength.

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

They showed they had a plan B and executed on it without involving B1, B2, or Swihart.  That'll work.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I thought both trades were equitable. I'm a little surprised that so many people think the Porcello trade was a home run, as I thought that one was the more obviously equitable of the two. The Miley trade is a little harder to parse at this point.

 

[radsoxfan]

I thought both trades were equitable. I'm a little surprised that so many people think the Porcello trade was a home run, as I thought that one was the more obviously equitable of the two. The Miley trade is a little harder to parse at this point.

 
Well there are 2 ways you can look at trades in general.  Do you want to look at which team got the most value in a vacuum, or do you just want to decide if the trade was a good one?
 
In a vacuum in terms of pure value, Cespedes for Porcello is a pretty fair trade.  However, if you want to look at it from the perspective of a team with too many outfielders and not enough pitchers, it becomes a very good trade.
 
I suspect plenty of the people saying the Red Sox won the trade are influenced by the composition of the current Red Sox roster, not looking at this as a zero-sum game.  The Tigers probably feel like they "won" the trade for a similar reason. 

 

[soxfan121]

 
These sinker ball pitchers, all with proven control, theoretically could throw fewer pitches per inning than more marginally wild strikeout artists.  Starters pitching deeper into games ought to correlate, for the most part, with a more rested bullpen and more wins.

 
Maybe the games won't be so ponderous. Quick workers, balls-in-play, fewer pitches...shorter games. Or more commercials. I'd imagine a bit of both, making Tom Werner super-duper happy.
 
In any case, I'm down. Get rid of Buchholz and win the pace of play trophy. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Well there are 2 ways you can look at trades in general.  Do you want to look at which team got the most value in a vacuum, or do you just want to decide if the trade was a good one?

 
Certainly both questions are valid ones, but the language of the poll is pretty clearly pointing to the first, so I figured that was what we were talking about.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

 
Certainly both questions are valid ones, but the language of the poll is pretty clearly pointing to the first, so I figured that was what we were talking about.

the time of posting is also relevant. My BAC was a long way from zero at that moment. Stupid holiday parties. Anyway, I know that teams often do trades that end up win-win, but that often we're sitting here evaluating trades from the perspective of whether our team got better using the few tradeable assets we have. I was more getting at whether we were pleased with the return and the net impact to the roster, taking into account opportunity cost. Whether we beat Chicago or Arizona, in a vacuum, is less interesting. But whether we're making the most of our opportunity to revamp the roster, that's important.

maybe I should have had options around "I would have preferred going after different players" or something. But these choices still reveal the collective sentiment, so I think it's OK.

 

[JimD]

It reminds me of the heady days of Idiots and Manny Ortez when the world trembled at our relentless offense. Now they will tremble again-at our pitching staff's ground ball rate.

 
Awesome.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I thought both trades were equitable. I'm a little surprised that so many people think the Porcello trade was a home run, as I thought that one was the more obviously equitable of the two. The Miley trade is a little harder to parse at this point.

FWIW, when I took this poll I was thinking about "winning" a trade in terms of whether the Red Sox made the team better, including not just 2015 performance but overall adding value to the franchise. When I say the Red Sox won both trades I mean that both trades made us better, and in both trades I think the assets we acquired are better than the assets we traded. I don't really care whether these trades made us better relative to the amount they made the Tigers or the Diamondbacks better, because I don't really care about the Tigers or Diamondbacks. 

 

[Devizier]

I thought both trades were equitable. I'm a little surprised that so many people think the Porcello trade was a home run, as I thought that one was the more obviously equitable of the two. The Miley trade is a little harder to parse at this point.

 
The deciding factor for the Porcello trade is the qualifying offer. As players, Porcello and Cespedes are pretty much as even a value as you're going to find.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
The deciding factor for the Porcello trade is the qualifying offer. As players, Porcello and Cespedes are pretty much as even a value as you're going to find.

 
Right, but that's why we had to give up Wilson and Speier. I suppose you could argue that Detroit didn't get enough back there, but I think you'd have a hard time making a case that it was a huge value shortfall for them.

 

[Mike F]

 
The deciding factor for the Porcello trade is the qualifying offer. As players, Porcello and Cespedes are pretty much as even a value as you're going to find.[/quote]

I'm Sure supporters of both teams like what they got, a need fulfilled. How this trade eventually plays out will determine who, if either, got the better result. As for now I am pleased the Sox got a strong addition to the rotation and for the cost of excess inventory (irregardless of skills) with neither desire nor chance to retain after 2015.
Edit for spelling

 

[Stitch01]

FWIW, Sox are the betting line favorites to win the AL.

 

[Mike F]

FWIW, Sox are the betting line favorites to win the AL.

Which only means that a bunch of money recently came in on the Sox.

 

[Stitch01]

Well, yeah, and its not end all be all, but it doesn't mean nothing, market is telling you that the Sox should have a real good team this year post pitching moves.