FYI Carson Smith is throwing a sim game at the new Toilet today. Pete Abe put up a live stream on his Facebook account. Not that you can see much via his phone cam in the press box, but at least it's happening.
Carson Smith...wasn't he some guy they traded for in the 90s?FYI Carson Smith is throwing a sim game at the new Toilet today. Pete Abe put up a live stream on his Facebook account. Not that you can see much via his phone cam in the press box, but at least it's happening.
Great analysis. Thanks. That really speaks well of Farrell.This, and...I suspect Farrell is thinking of leverage in more sophisticated terms than just inning. Last night Kelly faced Carter, Gardner, Sanchez, with Judge waiting if somebody gets on. Barnes faced Holliday, Castro and Hicks. Both pretty good groups of hitters, but which would you reserve your better reliever for?
The last time they were both used in the same game was May 29 vs. the White Sox, and very much the same deal: Kelly was brought in in the 7th to face the White Sox' 3-4-5-6 hitters, Barnes in the 8th to face the bottom of the order.
The time before that, May 17, Barnes was brought in in the 7th with the Sox trailing, faced one batter, and then when the Sox tied the score in the top of the 8th, Kelly was brought in to hold the lead.
The time before that, May 11, Kelly came in the 7th to face 3-4-5, and Barnes in the 8th to face 7-8-9.
As those dates show, Kelly and Barnes aren't actually being used in the same game very much, which suggests that Farrell sees them as filling essentially similar roles. But when they do appear in the same game, the recent record shows Farrell choosing Kelly to face tougher hitters and/or in higher-leverage situations.
So this bullpen would be nice with Holland in it. Having said that, so far we haven't been burned too bad by Thornburg and Smith not throwing a pitch yet.I'll still complain about the bullpen.
Edit: In all seriousness though - it's hard for me to argue with Dombrowski's moves this offseason. I would still like to see them take a flyer on Greg Holland.
What makes you think Holland would have come here to set up as opposed to going somewhere to close? An enormous overpay?So this bullpen would be nice with Holland in it. Having said that, so far we haven't been burned too bad by Thornburg and Smith not throwing a pitch yet.
I always do that. Fixed.I would love to have 2004 Alan Embree in this 'pen.
Holland got 1/$7M with a mutual $10M option for 2018, so yeah, it would have required a significant overpay for a guy coming off TJ surgery. An unlikely scenario for a team that had a presumably healthy Thornburg plus Barnes/Kelly/Ross (Hembree too if you were bullish on him) plus the prospect of adding Carson Smith mid year. Even now, with Thornburg and Ross hurt and still no Smith, the pen has been better than expected in general.What makes you think Holland would have come here to set up as opposed to going somewhere to close? An enormous overpay?
It was interesting to see how he varied his delivery timing, with occasional quick pitches, varying hitch times, and straight no hitch deliveries. A little more deception doesn't hurt.FWIW, DOB and Eck have been talking on NESN over this last week about how Kelly has added this hitch he uses sometimes with his delivery that delays when he releases the ball. He doesn't use it every pitch and it's kind of odd to see on replay – it's almost as if he's hesitating the throw the pitch. But they were saying that it seems to coincide with his numbers stabilizing and seems to throw off the hitters' timing on his FB so you can probably expect him to keep doing it.
Spier today was writing about it as a possible referendum on Abad.What do people make of the Sox scouting Minor? Just due diligence? A commentary on the progress of Thornburgh and Smith (or possible lack thereof)? Hopeful bargain hunting?
I'm really hoping/expecting Smith and TT to be our midseason BP "acquisitions," allowing the team to focus on other needs (3B).
The guy has seen four games in the team's last 20. Seems their minds are made up about him, they just need to find an adequate replacement.Spier today was writing about it as a possible referendum on Abad.
Still need contingency plans if neither come back this year. Thornburg is still a long ways from contributing, but Smith is supposed to be on track to start a rehab assignment soon and be ready to go by the All Star break.But aren't Smith and TT both particularly good against LHBs? I thought that's part of why we liked them...
This season there are about 1.9 RH batters for every LH batter (pitchers and switch hitters disregarded). -- bb-ref Play IndexBut aren't Smith and TT both particularly good against LHBs? I thought that's part of why we liked them...
As made abundantly clear last night, he is really going hard on avoiding Kelly going back to back. Only once since May 1, and that was after a 1 batter appearance.I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
After crapping all over him for his management of the pen last year, I have to concur. The flexibility in how he deploys Kimbrel, as well as his seeming willingness to be a little more matchup focused / less rigid in his use of late inning guys, has been great. I wonder whether the fact that there isn't a clearly established setup guy has played into this, or if it was a deliberate tactical shift, and whether it will endure should, say, Smith emerge in the 2nd half.I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
I think the relievers are better than we give them credit for. Especially Kelly and Barnes. They don't really have a track record of success so it's hard to take it seriously. Barnes has been lights out over his last 13 games, with 22k/0bb and a whip of .857 over 14 innings. Given he has improved every year as a MR, it bodes well. And if you include the minors, Joe Kelly has dominated as a MR over a healthy sample size. Maybe it's time we admit they are good.I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
IMO, most of the credit/blame goes to the players, so I agree that "we" may not be giving Barnes and Kelly enough credit. But if there is something the manager can really have some real impact on, I think it's the handling of the pen, and I'm ready to give JF credit.I think the relievers are better than we give them credit for. Especially Kelly and Barnes. They don't really have a track record of success so it's hard to take it seriously. Barnes has been lights out over his last 13 games, with 22k/0bb and a whip of .857 over 14 innings. Given he has improved every year as a MR, it bodes well. And if you include the minors, Joe Kelly has dominated as a MR over a healthy sample size. Maybe it's time we admit they are good.
I'd still like one more reliever out of the pen but the top 3 guys have been great and Hembree has been serviceable. Hopefully Thornburg or Smith can be that guy.
I believe there is strong consensus that ERA for individual relievers is a pretty bad stat. But is there consensus about looking at team reliever ERA? I'd think it would be more useful, even if still somewhat flawed.I think a notable change Farrell has made is that his guys don't get up and down in the pen like they have in the past. It maybe keeps them a little fresher overall.
That said, I think his seemingly pushing the right buttons is because several guys are waaay out pitching their xFIP. It may not be the be all end all stat (not sure what effect it has on defensive positioning for instance), but there is very likely going to be some big regression regardless of what leverage situations they are in.
Hembree - 3.77 ERA vs. 4.17
Kelly - 1.32 vs. 3.87
Scott - 1.76 vs. 3.85
Abad - 2.79 vs. 5.21
Barnes is the one guy beating his - 3.38 vs 2,88.
And to a much lesser degree due to SSS
Boyer - 2.38 vs. 3.76
Workman - 3.38 vs 4.72
Their FIPs look drastically different. Hembree's FIP is at 3.40. Kelly's is 2.97, Scott 3.05 and Abad 4.10. Still overperforming but not nearly as much. Are the gaps in FIP and xFIP usually that big? You are also still playing with very small sample sizes. Joe Kelly's first 13.1 innings this year saw him walk 8 and strike out 5. Since he's pitched 14.0 while striking out 15 and walking 4. He is also the only Redsox pitcher besides Robby Ross (8.0ip) to not give up a HR this year. I'd guess Kelly's FIP and xFIP have been on a steady decline since May 1st.I think a notable change Farrell has made is that his guys don't get up and down in the pen like they have in the past. It maybe keeps them a little fresher overall.
That said, I think his seemingly pushing the right buttons is because several guys are waaay out pitching their xFIP. It may not be the be all end all stat (not sure what effect it has on defensive positioning for instance), but there is very likely going to be some big regression regardless of what leverage situations they are in.
Hembree - 3.77 ERA vs. 4.17
Kelly - 1.32 vs. 3.87
Scott - 1.76 vs. 3.85
Abad - 2.79 vs. 5.21
Barnes is the one guy beating his - 3.38 vs 2,88.
And to a much lesser degree due to SSS
Boyer - 2.38 vs. 3.76
Workman - 3.38 vs 4.72
Ya - I'm second guessing that evaluation since I have no idea when that stabilizes. BABIP is probably a better predictor of regression and with that it's all over the place with our guys. Even using that is probably poor.Their FIPs look drastically different. Hembree's FIP is at 3.40. Kelly's is 2.97, Scott 3.05 and Abad 4.10. Still overperforming but not nearly as much. Are the gaps in FIP and xFIP usually that big? You are also still playing with very small sample sizes. Joe Kelly's first 13.1 innings this year saw him walk 8 and strike out 5. Since he's pitched 14.0 while striking out 15 and walking 4. He is also the only Redsox pitcher besides Robby Ross (8.0ip) to not give up a HR this year. I'd guess Kelly's FIP and xFIP have been on a steady decline since May 1st.
Do these things go together? Like, do managers not get guys up and down in the pen a lot because they have confidence in the players, because the players are performing? So if Farrell decides he wants Kelly for the 6th, there's no matchup or other scenario that would change his mind.IMO, most of the credit/blame goes to the players, so I agree that "we" may not be giving Barnes and Kelly enough credit. But if there is something the manager can really have some real impact on, I think it's the handling of the pen, and I'm ready to give JF credit.
We'd have to be able to read Farrell's mind to answer those questions, but I agree with the point I think you're making which is that it's easier for a manager to make good decisions when his players are performing well.Do these things go together? Like, do managers not get guys up and down in the pen a lot because they have confidence in the players, because the players are performing? So if Farrell decides he wants Kelly for the 6th, there's no matchup or other scenario that would change his mind.
It's two straight extra inning games PLUS Brian Johnson starting tonight. Need someone who can eat innings if necessary.Tired bullpen after 2 extra inning outings.
I hope.
Please don't be starting Hector Velazquez for any reason!
Which means Marrero can't be recalled until the 24th, barring injury, right? That's a long time to go without any backup infielder (besides Pablo). There isn't anyone else on the 40-man roster who can step in.Pete AbrahamVerified account @PeteAbe 27m27 minutes ago
#RedSox recalled RHP Hector Velazquez and optioned INF Deven Marrero.
What's the latest update on Holt?Which means Marrero can't be recalled until the 24th, barring injury, right? That's a long time to go without any backup infielder (besides Pablo). There isn't anyone else on the 40-man roster who can step in.
Shut down for "foreseeable future" in late May.What's the latest update on Holt?
Travis hasn't been down long enough, has he?Velazquez et al with 6 1/3 more scoreless innings. Wow.
He probably goes back down today, unless Johnson has a real injury in which case I expect they will put Hector in BJ's slot next week.
Either way I expect Travis up for Thursday's game replacing Velazquez or Johnson.
He last pitched on Saturday. The only other starter who was more well rested and also on the 40-man was Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't pitched in 10 days. That they chose Velazquez says something about Kendrick, I think (unless he's injured). I would guess that Velazquez will get first crack at Johnson's rotation spot if Johnson is headed for the DL.Was Hector brought up because he was pitching well or he because had enough rest to be available? Or is one of the other PawSox starters a more likely temporary fifth starter?
Thanks for this. I checked SoxProspects which reports Hector pitched 3 games in June w/o allowing an earned run. So he's pitching well lately, but he's only logged 13 innings in those 3 games. Anyone know what the reason is for such limited innings?He last pitched on Saturday. The only other starter who was more well rested and also on the 40-man was Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't pitched in 10 days. That they chose Velazquez says something about Kendrick, I think (unless he's injured). I would guess that Velazquez will get first crack at Johnson's rotation spot if Johnson is headed for the DL.
He's a guy who put in his time in the minors and in the beginning looked like a bust. Happy for him.It seems Maddox has jumped up the depth chart a bit.