Bullpen 2017

streeter88

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This is interesting, SSS notwithstanding. Kelly and Hembree get to 2 strikes a lot more than most, and fail to get the hitter a lot more than most:

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/09/when-the-strikeout-never-comes/
This is really powerful analysis. I have been wondering about the general inability of most everyone but Sale and Kimbel in this regard. The plot with Kimbrel and Kelly in it was very revealing .

The next step is what to do about it. Sox catchers seem to be pretty good at pitch framing, and as the article showed borderline calls clearly make a big difference, but there is seemingly a very fine line between throwing the obvious strike and it being very hittable. The MIN example's overall outcome was a scoreless 9th, so no harm done. Would be interesting to see whether there have been other times where the outcome wasn't as good.
 

nvalvo

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This is really powerful analysis. I have been wondering about the general inability of most everyone but Sale and Kimbel in this regard. The plot with Kimbrel and Kelly in it was very revealing .

The next step is what to do about it. Sox catchers seem to be pretty good at pitch framing, and as the article showed borderline calls clearly make a big difference, but there is seemingly a very fine line between throwing the obvious strike and it being very hittable. The MIN example's overall outcome was a scoreless 9th, so no harm done. Would be interesting to see whether there have been other times where the outcome wasn't as good.
That said, the Sox staff has the fourth best K/9 in baseball, so they can't be doing that badly.
 

streeter88

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Yes, but looking at that 4th best K/9, the Sox have 354 team strikeouts of which 118 (33%) are from Sale (85) and Kimbrel (33). Kimbrel has literally struck out 55% of his total 59 batters faced. So my point still stands -- if you take away the two of them, the Sox would probably be league average at best.

K/9 for Sox bullpen according to b-ref thus far (not including tonight's win vs. Cardinals):
Kimbrel 17.8
Ross 9.8
Hembree 9.6
Taylor 8.5
Barnes 8.2
Scott 7.7
Abad 5.2
Kelly 4.7

2017 Average K/9 for relievers = 8.9 (for starters it's 7.8). So only Kimbrel, Ross and Hembree are above average, and thus I think the article joe dokes linked is onto something. Hembree has a good K/9 overall, but the graph shows he has to work harder to get the 3rd strike than is normal.

Nice game by the bullpen tonight vs the Cardinals by the way. 0R 1H 1BB, 1K in 3 IP to shut it down for EdRo.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yes, but looking at that 4th best K/9, the Sox have 354 team strikeouts of which 118 (33%) are from Sale (85) and Kimbrel (33). Kimbrel has literally struck out 55% of his total 59 batters faced. So my point still stands -- if you take away the two of them, the Sox would probably be league average at best.

K/9 for Sox bullpen according to b-ref thus far (not including tonight's win vs. Cardinals):
Kimbrel 17.8
Ross 9.8
Hembree 9.6
Taylor 8.5
Barnes 8.2
Scott 7.7
Abad 5.2
Kelly 4.7

2017 Average K/9 for relievers = 8.9 (for starters it's 7.8). So only Kimbrel, Ross and Hembree are above average, and thus I think the article joe dokes linked is onto something. Hembree has a good K/9 overall, but the graph shows he has to work harder to get the 3rd strike than is normal.

Nice game by the bullpen tonight vs the Cardinals by the way. 0R 1H 1BB, 1K in 3 IP to shut it down for EdRo.
Well... if you remove every teams ace starter and closer that would adjust the Sox way back up, no?
 

nvalvo

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Yes, but looking at that 4th best K/9, the Sox have 354 team strikeouts of which 118 (33%) are from Sale (85) and Kimbrel (33). Kimbrel has literally struck out 55% of his total 59 batters faced. So my point still stands -- if you take away the two of them, the Sox would probably be league average at best.

K/9 for Sox bullpen according to b-ref thus far (not including tonight's win vs. Cardinals):
Kimbrel 17.8
Ross 9.8
Hembree 9.6
Taylor 8.5
Barnes 8.2
Scott 7.7
Abad 5.2
Kelly 4.7

2017 Average K/9 for relievers = 8.9 (for starters it's 7.8). So only Kimbrel, Ross and Hembree are above average, and thus I think the article joe dokes linked is onto something. Hembree has a good K/9 overall, but the graph shows he has to work harder to get the 3rd strike than is normal.

Nice game by the bullpen tonight vs the Cardinals by the way. 0R 1H 1BB, 1K in 3 IP to shut it down for EdRo.
Or another way of putting this would be that if we replaced Kelly's and Abad's 2017 K rates with their career numbers, we'd be in (eyeballing it) second, probably. If a healthy David Price had pitched the innings Wright, Kendrick and Johnson pitched, we'd be in first.

FYI, because it's interesting, the numbers go like this:

CLE 10.14
HOU 9.91
LAD 9.76
BOS 9.62
ARI 9.47
CHC 9.18
NYY 9.08
NYM 8.97
etc...
 

streeter88

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Agreed. So, how do the Sox get Kelly and Abad back to their career K rates? Back to the aforementioned article, the writer theorised that getting the 3rd strike is hard for at least Kelly. I added that Kelly seems to be right at the edge of the plate with that 3rd strike, and that the margin of error is very fine there. I am not sure what the answer is.

Any ideas?

(edited to change "we" to "the Sox")
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Any expectations of bullpen moves after last night's game? With Velazquez having been on a short leash and making his big league debut, and the 'pen having thrown 7 innings on Wednesday, would Workman and/or someone else be heading to Oakland?
 

streeter88

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After last night's performance by the bullpen (7 IP, 3H, 2BB, 0R and 6K), let me be the first to admit the the discussion of strikeout rates seems a bit silly. They shut the door, and let the Sox climb back from 4-0 down.

Awesome effort!
 

grimshaw

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I would say Taylor for Workman is likeliest. Workman hasn't pitched in a few days. Maybe Ross for Noe or Kyle Martin if they need a second arm, though I think Ross could gut out an inning or two tonight if needed.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Thing is, one reliever has to go to make room for Velazquez already. Presumably, that's Taylor.

Of the rest, just based on usage, the odd man out might be Scott. He pitched in both games in St. Louis and is the one guy who is probably on the "avoid if you can" list (w/Hembree, Abad, and Kimbrel) tonight that has options. On the flip side, he threw just five pitches last night (19 the night before) so it's not like he's worn out either.

Ross, Kelly, and Barnes are the most rested, having thrown a total of 22 pitches between them last night, so you'd think they'd be the ones expected to shoulder the load tonight.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I think everyone would be available other than Hembree and Abad. Kimberl's pitch counts have been small.
 

grimshaw

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Duh. Forgot about creating room for Velasquez. At least the A's have scored the 5th fewest runs, so it could be an easy night.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Velazquez down and Workman back up today? Sox don't need an extra starter any more, thank goodness.

Fri: Sale
Sat: Pomeranz
Sun: EdRo
Mon: Off
Tues: Porcello
Wed: Sale/Price?

If Price isn't ready, then yeah, they'll need someone for next Saturday
 

grimshaw

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Velazquez down and Workman back up today? Sox don't need an extra starter any more, thank goodness.

Fri: Sale
Sat: Pomeranz
Sun: EdRo
Mon: Off
Tues: Porcello
Wed: Sale/Price?

If Price isn't ready, then yeah, they'll need someone for next Saturday
They have 13 pitchers on the roster, so I don't think it'll be another arm - especially with Sale going today. They need an IF since it's only Rutledge on the bench. No logical choice down there though since Pablo and Holt need more time.
 

Byrdbrain

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They DFA'd D'Arnaud to make room for Velazquez so they are playing with a very short bench and even though Velazquez sucked they only used 2 bullpen pitchers and only Barnes for more than an inning so it isn't like the BP is shot.
That said the only healthy non-pitchers on the 40 man roster in the minors are Selsky and Swihart. I'd assume it's Selsky since he can play corner IF and OF, he'd go back down when Pablo is ready.

I was typing this while Grimshaw made his similar point with a slightly different conclusion.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Makes sense to send a pitcher down. Makes little sense to send him down in favor of another pitcher, not with a short bench.

Have to assume they'll send Velazquez down after they've seen Price on a mound in a game (tonight) and feel good about what they see. And at that point, they'll bring up another position player for the bench.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Soooooo... Do we know why Taylor and NOOOO-ee are still on the big club and why Workman isn't up? I don't want to make this about the manager but it was obvious from batter one yesterday that Taylor had nothing and yet Farrell didn't get Ramirez up until Taylor had totally crapped the bed, then rushed him in having only thrown about ten warmup pitches.
 

Al Zarilla

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Soooooo... Do we know why Taylor and NOOOO-ee are still on the big club and why Workman isn't up? I don't want to make this about the manager but it was obvious from batter one yesterday that Taylor had nothing and yet Farrell didn't get Ramirez up until Taylor had totally crapped the bed, then rushed him in having only thrown about ten warmup pitches.
Where's that picture of a terrified Farrell looking up from the dugout at a bomb?
 

AB in DC

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Soooooo... Do we know why Taylor and NOOOO-ee are still on the big club and why Workman isn't up? I don't want to make this about the manager but it was obvious from batter one yesterday that Taylor had nothing and yet Farrell didn't get Ramirez up until Taylor had totally crapped the bed, then rushed him in having only thrown about ten warmup pitches.
Workman's first three appearances in Pawtucket after being sent back down were rather poor: 3 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. So maybe there was a mechanical issue or something.

In any case, with Ross's continued suckage and Taylor turning into a pumpkin, I would bet we'd see Workman back before the end of the month.
 

judyb

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Workman hasn't pitched since Thursday, while there's no way Ramirez is available today, is it possible Workman's in Oakland or on his way, and we just haven't heard yet?
 

richgedman'sghost

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No links but I thought I heard on the pregame show that Carson Smith was throwing bullpens and pitching to hitters. He could be sent out on a rehab assignment next week. Thornburg? Your guess is as good as mine.
 

Byrdbrain

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No links but I thought I heard on the pregame show that Carson Smith was throwing bullpens and pitching to hitters. He could be sent out on a rehab assignment next week. Thornburg? Your guess is as good as mine.
Yep
Christopher Smith‏Verified account @SmittyOnMLB 3h3 hours ago
Christopher Smith Retweeted Kurt Strack

He's been throwing two bullpens a week, next step is to face live hitters. Thornburg, no new news.


The he referred to in the tweet is obviously Smith.
 

simplicio

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In a move that screams "we have no idea whether or not Price will survive the first inning of his start tomorrow," Blaine Boyer is coming to Boston.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If Boyer is insurance for a Price meltdown tomorrow, who is the move to get Price on the roster then?

I think Boyer was added today because as a veteran of 6+ years service time, his minor league deal includes an automatic opt-out on June 1. And today they had a spot they could fill with a random reliever for at least a day, which might not be the case on Tuesday or Wednesday when Boyer could force the issue.

He might be out tomorrow as the counter move to adding Price, or he might stick for a bit while someone else (I'd assume Workman) gets shuttled out. Could depend on what happens and who pitches today. But I doubt Price's return and concerns about it are the reason Boyer is up now. If Price were that much of a worry that they felt they needed bullpen reinforcements the day after the entire pen had the day off (so barring disaster today, they'd be in good shape for tomorrow), they wouldn't be bringing Price back at all.
 

grimshaw

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Maybe they want Boyer so dazzled by the team's chemistry for a few days that he won't want to opt out even after he's sent down at some point.

Though not sure if the opt out was only if he wasn't recalled at any point before June 1.
 

TSC

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Interesting note about Joe Kelly from Jared Carrabis at Barstool.

"His fastball is averaging — AVERAGING — 99.22 MPH this year, his fastest fastball average of any season in his career. Only 21 pitchers in the MLB have hit 100 MPH on the gun this season. Those 21 pitchers have registered 100 MPH on the gun 305 times, and Kelly represents 19% of that figure with 57 fastballs at 100 MPH or higher. Only Trevor Rosenthal (70) and Aroldis Chapman (61) have thrown more. However, only seven pitchers have hit 101 on the gun this year, a combined 41 times, and 10 of those fastballs belong to Kelly."
 

Plympton91

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And Matt Barnes is still the 8th inning guy. The mind boggles. I was checking his splits today, and he's averaging 4 BB per 9 innings the past two seasons. His career OPS in high leverage situations is about 100 points higher than it is in medium and low leverage situations. In tie games his performance is abysmal.

I do not get why Farrell has a love affair with Barnes. It is mind blowing. I know it is in part because wishcasting is necessary given the phalanx of 10th men on the staff they have in front of Kimbrell. To that end, Carson Smith, who now seems likely to get back sooner than the guy they traded Travis (860 OPS in 189 PA now) Shaw for, can't get here soon enough.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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And Matt Barnes is still the 8th inning guy. The mind boggles. I was checking his splits today, and he's averaging 4 BB per 9 innings the past two seasons. His career OPS in high leverage situations is about 100 points higher than it is in medium and low leverage situations. In tie games his performance is abysmal.
psst! Have you checked Kelly's walk numbers? 5.4/9 innings last year, 3.9/9 this year.

You can't honestly say you watch Kelly without a feeling of dread, ever.
 

joe dokes

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And Matt Barnes is still the 8th inning guy. The mind boggles. I was checking his splits today, and he's averaging 4 BB per 9 innings the past two seasons. His career OPS in high leverage situations is about 100 points higher than it is in medium and low leverage situations. In tie games his performance is abysmal.

I do not get why Farrell has a love affair with Barnes. It is mind blowing. I know it is in part because wishcasting is necessary given the phalanx of 10th men on the staff they have in front of Kimbrell. To that end, Carson Smith, who now seems likely to get back sooner than the guy they traded Travis (860 OPS in 189 PA now) Shaw for, can't get here soon enough.
8th inning 7th inning. Its all high leverage. Unless you're thinking of just dumping Barnes altogether. And if kelly didn;t throw 100 pitches in his inning yesterday, he might have gotten another.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Is it just a case of me not being able to actually watch any games (I've seen one this whole season so far!) but it really seems Kelly is not getting any respect here. The guys numbers look pretty great for a setup man... he's got a 1.105 WHIP on the season and over his last month (when he clearly stepped up and claimed the role) he has an ERA of 0. zero. 2 BB's. 11 K's. A .483 OPS against with batters still at a slightly high .316 BABiP against.
This looks like dominant numbers to me but the guy still gets killed around these 'ere parts. Again... I don't get to see any games so I'd like to see WTF is up
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
8th inning 7th inning. Its all high leverage. Unless you're thinking of just dumping Barnes altogether. And if kelly didn;t throw 100 pitches in his inning yesterday, he might have gotten another.
This, and...I suspect Farrell is thinking of leverage in more sophisticated terms than just inning. Last night Kelly faced Carter, Gardner, Sanchez, with Judge waiting if somebody gets on. Barnes faced Holliday, Castro and Hicks. Both pretty good groups of hitters, but which would you reserve your better reliever for?

The last time they were both used in the same game was May 29 vs. the White Sox, and very much the same deal: Kelly was brought in in the 7th to face the White Sox' 3-4-5-6 hitters, Barnes in the 8th to face the bottom of the order.

The time before that, May 17, Barnes was brought in in the 7th with the Sox trailing, faced one batter, and then when the Sox tied the score in the top of the 8th, Kelly was brought in to hold the lead.

The time before that, May 11, Kelly came in the 7th to face 3-4-5, and Barnes in the 8th to face 7-8-9.

As those dates show, Kelly and Barnes aren't actually being used in the same game very much, which suggests that Farrell sees them as filling essentially similar roles. But when they do appear in the same game, the recent record shows Farrell choosing Kelly to face tougher hitters and/or in higher-leverage situations.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is it just a case of me not being able to actually watch any games (I've seen one this whole season so far!) but it really seems Kelly is not getting any respect here. The guys numbers look pretty great for a setup man... he's got a 1.105 WHIP on the season and over his last month (when he clearly stepped up and claimed the role) he has an ERA of 0. zero. 2 BB's. 11 K's. A .483 OPS against with batters still at a slightly high .316 BABiP against.
This looks like dominant numbers to me but the guy still gets killed around these 'ere parts. Again... I don't get to see any games so I'd like to see WTF is up
It's 13 games. I think people just keep expecting him to revert back to SP Joe Kelly. His track record as a MR in the minors and the majors is considerably better than as a starter and the sample size isn't that small as a MR if you do include the minors. I don't think some people will ever truly trust him just like some people still worry about JBJ. During those 13 games, his LD% is 31% though. He's also only at 11% in Strikes swinging, 16% looking. Although his GB ratio is at 1.90.

I have him at a .459 OPS against with a BAbip of .276 over his last 13 games and 12 innings though.. It looks like you used the last 10 games? Either way, he's been lights out since May 1st with a WHIP of .917 and striking out 28.9% of the batters he has faced while walking 6.7%. Over the last 10 games, that K rate is 31.4% and BB rate is 5.7%.

Over the course of the season, his K rate still looks terrible so I don't think people have really caught on yet either. For the year it's only 18% and his BB rate is 11%. His WHIP of 1.104 for the season is good though and his FIP is 2.94.