Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

Worth pointing out again that JD Martinez signed on February 26, nearly two weeks into camp being open (Nunez also signed after camp opened). No reason at all to assume that just because a deal hasn't been done yet that no deal can be done. Late signings seem to be the new normal with the current CBA.

 

That’s true but DD had the payroll space for those signings. This year, no

 

P91, I don’t get the negativity here. They are loaded almost everywhere in their lineup except the bullpen. Most teams don’t invest crazy dollars in their bullpens and do fine. Would this consternation be going on had the Yankees not signed two of the premium relievers on the market (to significant dollars I would add) to go along with Chapman and Betances?

Every team has a soft area – the Yankees’ is their rotation. Ours is the bullpen. Which (potential) problem would you rather have? Which is more fixable?

 

and which has been proven to be easily adjusted to in the playoffs?

 

There's a school of thought that if the bullpen blows a game on Opening Day, the psychological damage to the team will be such that the playoffs wont even happen. The ghosts of Chad Fox (costing the Sox a playoff spot in 2003), Joe Kelly and Carson Smith (doing the same to the 2018 squad) are the principals of this school.

 

Not to get off topic, but the NY rotation is probably in the top 5 in baseball right now. You could question the depth after the top 5, but if Paxton/Severino/Tanaka/Happ/CC is a 'soft area', that is one seriously loaded team. Fangraphs has them at #3 in MLB, CLE at #1, BOS at #2:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

Alex Speier looked into the biggest free agent reliever deals of last year. Zero of the relievers signed for more than $5 million per year were able to achieve 1 WAR.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...ere-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

 

Well to be fair....the Yankees ARE a seriously loaded team. They're gonna be a monster this year, assuming good health. Of all the areas on a team, between the Red Sox and Yankees, the Sox' bullpen is by far the weakest area. They may be able to get by as is, or with minor changes, but man, it doesn't look very good to me right now.

 

remember that a catcher is presumably getting traded at some point. I bet it's for another reliever or two, even if they're just more fliers.

 

Why do people think that? They carried those three guys all last season, why wouldn’t they do it again? Genuine question.

 

I think you could make a case that those last two are somewhat soft (beyond CC's waistine), just due to the fact they're turning 37 and 39 this year, respectively. Neither showed alarming signs of massive age-related decline last year, which probably contributes to the solid Fangraphs number, but at that age rapid decline can happen. At minimum durability can be a serious concern at that age, which comes into play if, as you say, depth beyond the front 5 is an issue. (Are you guys still high on Loaisiga?)

I don't think anyone doubts that the NYY are seriously loaded, but I think most Yankees fans would allow that even with the Paxton addition, starting pitching remains a soft-ish area for them, relatively speaking (if probably less soft than defense).

 

Loaisiga is great if he can stay healthy, German is promising, and also I forgot Jordan Montgomery is supposed to be back mid-season. Mike King had insane minor league numbers last year (and a ton of innings), but even though he absolutely dominated AAA at the end of the year (a 1.15 ERA in 6 starts), people don't seem to think it will translate to big league success.

 

What team is trading for one of these catchers, and giving up a potentially useful arm to do so? And I know the answer to that is, there's always the chance of someone getting hurt and having a surprise need for a catcher before Opening Day, but there are still free agents available and no seeming rush to snap them up. Good chance a team in need of a catcher can grab a free agent for cash only rather than give up a prospect (even a lottery ticket type).

 

This is a great little article and really echo's the point that quantity is actually much more important than what I will call "perceived quality."

It's absolutely a huge gamble. And looking at some of the deals I really wish they would have struck a few deals with some more experienced guys in the sub 4mm range but it's clear that's just not in the cards. They are going to throw as many arms at the wall as possible and see what happens. It's definitely not an uncalculated risk, it's clear there is a vision here. We'll see if it blows up in their face or not.

 

I took Speier's point to be "the bullpen has just as much chance to suck if you spend the money as if you don't." DD's hand may be forced, but if spending the money doesn't improve the chances, then why do it, other than to satisfy the critics who say that you didn't spend the money?

 

It would be interesting to see Speier's work done over time, and without reference to the arbitrary $5M salary cut-off. WAR/FA$ for relievers. Regarding his list, signing FA relievers looks like a poor bet, generally, given their performance volatility. Of course, many relievers end up as relievers not because of stuff, but because of the persistent inability to harness their stuff (see Kelly, J.); hence, the poor ROI. But it also looks like the best relative bet is to sign a guy or two with some proven ability at the MLB level to a major league deal (for less than $5M per year!). DD didn't sign anyone like that, right? And only Brewer is on the 40-man?

 

I was going to say something similar. The Yankees have a very good rotation. It would not surprise anyone if two of the three of Severino, Paxton, or Tanaka finished in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. And you can’t talk about durability issues give Sale’s now thrice repeated breakdowns in September and October.

 

Sergio Romo went to the Marlins of all teams for 1/2.5M. lol

 

Mass Live has a profile of big lefty bullpen hopeful Josh Taylor, who we acquired in a trade for Deven Marrero last year.
Taylor's minor league numbers are nothing great, but he has topped out at 98 mph, and was added to the 40-man roster to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft. Someone to keep an eye on as the season goes on.

They also have a profile of Travis Lakins, who seems more likely to pitch in the majors this year.

"Red Sox prospect Travis Lakins dominated after transitioning from a starter to a reliever last May.
He posted a 0.86 ERA (21 innings, two earned runs) and 0.71 WHIP in 20 relief outings for Double-A Portland. He then earned a promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket where he recorded a 1.65 ERA (16.1 innings, three earned runs) in 10 relief outings.
The Red Sox added him to the 40-man roster in November. He’s here at big league spring training camp and he certainly can make this club’s Opening Day roster.
Lakins said he’s very comfortable with multi-inning relief outings. He pitched more than one inning in 11 of his 30 relief outings, including eight times in his final nine appearances. He recorded six outs in four outings."