Brady/Manning XVII

[PaulinMyrBch]

Chung is going to be huge. He'll be the point of the emphasis for the D. With all the audibles Peyton calls, he'll be the extra run defender if we are in nickle/dime, or he'll be in coverage if we line up heavy. His role is going to be key for the defensive adjustments.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[RedOctober3829]

As we're accustomed to, this game is going to be on Brady and the offense. We hardly ran with Blount last time we played and now that he's gone, I don't see us giving more than 8-10 carries to Jackson. White may get a few if we work the uptempo game, which will be harder to do given the altitude.

Based on the current forecast, looks like weather won't be an issue, which is fine by me since I'd rather the offense have the best throwing conditions possible. Now would be the perfect time for LaFell to get his head out of his ass. Gronk and Edelman will be the focus so I think this game gets won or lost based on our ability to get productivity out of the LaFell/Martin/Amendola group. They're certainly capable of it.

On defense, I think we'll be in trouble if Collins/Jones aren't in decent shape for next week. Manning had all day to throw today and will be looking for the short stuff. I'd like to bring the pressure early to see what he's capable of. At the end of the day, there will be plays to be made. William Gay today dropped an INT that could have changed the game. I figure that Malcolm will be on Sanders and Ryan/McCourty will handle Demaryius. It will be a big matchup for Butler because if he can bottle up Sanders, I don't see how Denver moves the ball enough to win unless they win TO battle.

On special teams, I don't ask for much. Just don't fuck up. I don't need any "plus" plays but we can't afford any short fields for Manning.

To follow up on weather, it says mid 40s and sunny.

As for defensive match ups, keep in mind that Chung was hurt against Denver and was severely limited covering Daniels.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Yeah, what clowns those HOF QBs are - nowhere near as accomplished as a donut eating, $20 button-down shirt wearing, crappy car driving headline writer!

 

[jsinger121]

Football zebras tweeting out that Ed Hochuli and Bill Vinovich are the likely conference championship refs. Hope we get Vinovich.

 

[Byrdbrain]

That play was unbelievable, just ask yourself what would happened if someone hit Peyton while he was down?
Is there any doubt they would have called a penalty?


Edit:Sorry internet slow tonight, I'm obviously referencing the play where Peyton "fell down".

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Why bother then? I share the concern at some level, but if the fix is in to this extent, why torture yourself by watching and rooting?

I will not be within 500 yards of the game thread next week.

Because I am addicted.

 

[Marciano490]

Honestly, this cover makes me happy because they call out Manning.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

That's Denver safety Omar Bolden, not the ST ace-slash-RB of the Good Guys.

I appreciate you looking that up and informing us, as I had the same question and you saved me the time. I mean, yeah, there was the "#broncos" tag, but there was still plenty of ambiguity to it.

 

[JoePoulson]

Not ideal, but it rarely is. I think the Pats will win, but I'll be a nervous wreck all day Sunday.

 

[Sportsbstn]

We have heard all season how the Patriots offense would be limited by top defenses. When healthy, they annihilated Buffalo's highly ranked defense, scored plenty on the Jets (1st game) and piled on points against Kansas City. Even with half an offense they scored 24 against the Broncos. The full compliment the Pats have back will give Denver fits, as the Broncos pass rush will be ineffective and the Broncos struggle to cover guys like Edelman and Amendola. Only way I think the Broncos win is if the Patriots lose the turnover battle by 2 or more. Even in the last game, if not for the horrible fumble on the punt, the Pats probably win pretty easily. Brady will be out for blood and he has the weapons.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Pats 47
Broncos 10

 

[patinorange]

Jet Fans. So very sad and bitter.

 

[Marciano490]

Taint-Ans would've been funnier if it was about Peyton's college antics.

 

[bigq]

Butler is going to have a pivotal interception in this game.

 

[Three10toLeft]

Two years ago I felt like the Pats were overmatched heading in to Denver. Manning was firing on all cylinders with Thomas, Decker, and Welker putting up crazy numbers to go along with a formidable defense.

The Pats were still transitioning into the offense they are now after the unexpected departure of Hernandez and adjusting on the fly right before that season began. We saw Collins really start to bloom in to the defensive force he can be when healthy late in that season, and I particularly remember him standing out as one of the few bright spots in that AFC title game a couple years back.

This year is way different. As long as we don't suffer some major injuries in the run up to this game or during the actual contest, I don't see the Broncos being able to muster enough offense to outscore the Pats. And despite how good this Broncos defense is, the Patriots are a way different beast now that we've got Julian back. The quickstrike passes are really going to limit the pass rush that Denver will be able to get on us. The only thing that has me worried is Manning conducting several long, time killing drives with timely audibles and eeking out a few 3rd down conversions to make our defense a bit tired heading in to the 4th quarter in the mile high air.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

We have heard all season how the Patriots offense would be limited by top defenses. When healthy, they annihilated Buffalo's highly ranked defense, scored plenty on the Jets (1st game) and piled on points against Kansas City. Even with half an offense they scored 24 against the Broncos. The full compliment the Pats have back will give Denver fits, as the Broncos pass rush will be ineffective and the Broncos struggle to cover guys like Edelman and Amendola. Only way I think the Broncos win is if the Patriots lose the turnover battle by 2 or more. Even in the last game, if not for the horrible fumble on the punt, the Pats probably win pretty easily. Brady will be out for blood and he has the weapons.

This is pretty spot on, especially Denver needing to be +2 in the turn over battle. Which will be very tough to do if they go down big early and have to rely on the duck hunter to throw their way back into it.

I'm still gobsmacked that Os isn't starting. When he stepped in I predicted manning had thrown his last pass in the NFL, but since I'm always wrong of course they went back to him. And to that I say thank you Kubiak, for flushing your teams chances in the post season to placate the ego of a fading/falling/failing star. Brady and Belichick will put the final nail in the coffin of a spectacular regular season career and it will be HGHuge. It's an even better outcome than a 10th one and done would have been.

 

[djbayko]

I'm terrified. Not of the Broncos offense, but of the zebras. I'm terrified that we're going to see six or seven phantom calls against the Patriots, and six or seven uncalled penalties against the Broncos. I'm afraid Gronk will have two OPIs for briefly touching someone. I'm afraid that we'll see a bunch of uncalled DPI in the end zone for the Broncos.

I also have this fear to a degree, but I've been there before and been pleasantly surprised by the refs so I'm going to try to remain optimistic.

The NFL doesn't want Brady to be in the Super Bowl. They don't want the Patriots to win. They hate this team. Fuck the NFL.

Replace Edelman for Amendola in the controversial block play, and watch the league twist itself on knots justifying a suspension.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I'm usually one to be on board with all the tinfoil hat conspiracy theories wrt the refs but for some reason, probably the melatonin I took 45 minutes ago chilling me out, I'm not concerned at all for next weekend. A good barometer will be 1. If the ref can get the coin to actually flip and 2. If he can remember who called it and what they called.

Please no Eddie Muscles.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The one thing that has me cautiously optimistic is that Pittsburgh was 30th agains the pass this season and they kept Manning in check all day today, which is a good barometer of what sort of QB he is right now.

Any other good to elite NFL QB would have carved them up but Manning was fairly pedestrian. To his credit, he mostly avoided mistakes (save for the ball Gay should have intercepted) but he was nowhere near where he used to be. If the Pats can jump on Denver early - an injured Roethlisberger moved the ball well against the vaunted Denver defense in spots today - I have a hard time seeing the Broncos coming back from a decent deficit.

A close game, on the other hand, will likely give the refs what they need to do the league's bidding. And I am not typically a conspiracy theory guy but I have no doubt that the league would prefer the diminished Peyton Manning in the superbowl to the Patriots.

 

[lars10]

The one thing that has me cautiously optimistic is that Pittsburgh was 30th agains the pass this season and they kept Manning in check all day today, which is a good barometer of what sort of QB he is right now.

Any other good to elite NFL QB would have carved them up but Manning was fairly pedestrian. To his credit, he mostly avoided mistakes (save for the ball Gay should have intercepted) but he was nowhere near where he used to be. If the Pats can jump on Denver early - an injured Roethlisberger moved the ball well against the vaunted Denver defense in spots today - I have a hard time seeing the Broncos coming back from a decent deficit.

A close game, on the other hand, will likely give the refs what they need to do the league's bidding. And I am not typically a conspiracy theory guy but I have no doubt that the league would prefer the diminished Peyton Manning in the superbowl to the Patriots.

So they can get a repeat of the Super Bowl from two years ago?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

They will need the D or ST to score to put up 27.

Again I hope that it doesn't happen. I'm just weary with a dinged up Hightower vs Anderson. And I believe the referees will play a huge role in this one. Expect at least one Gronk OPI. They'll keep hitting the Pats with penalties.

 

[8slim]

The refs have been largely unobtrusive in the playoffs so far. Hell, it was their lack of involvement that led to the Steelers-Bengals game getting out of hand. I bet the league office has been telling the crews to get the hell out of the way, they don't want the controversy. So I'm not too worried about it. Bad calls will happen because bad calls happen every game. But it'll be even.

The Broncos should have won by 3 TDs, their receivers were running open all day. But drops. And Manning arm.

I agree that 2 years ago I didn't feel right about the Pats in Denver, but this year I think we're the better team.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The refs have been largely unobtrusive in the playoffs so far. Hell, it was their lack of involvement that led to the Steelers-Bengals game getting out of hand. I bet the league office has been telling the crews to get the hell out of the way, they don't want the controversy. So I'm not too worried about it. Bad calls will happen because bad calls happen every game. But it'll be even.

The Broncos should have won by 3 TDs, their receivers were running open all day. But drops. And Manning arm.

I agree that 2 years ago I didn't feel right about the Pats in Denver, but this year I think we're the better team.

You're delusional.

What about yesterday's game made you think they should have won by even 1 touchdown, nevermind 3 touchdowns? If Pitt doesn't turn it over late there, Pittsburgh wins walking away.

Also, the two teams are about as even as it gets on offense except the HUGE ADVANTAGE the Pats have at QB. Denver's defense is good, but it's not so much better than the Pats as to make up for the advantage at QB. Don't sleep on the Pats defense.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

Entering yesterday's game, I was firmly in the wanting Pitt camp. As game progressed, and Ben looked moderately healthy and Peyton continued to look atrocious, my "rooting" interest shifted dramatically. The home field issue matters of course, but I can honestly say I am more confident about this game than I was facing KC. Patriots win, and comfortably. Maybe it's the homer in me, but I just can't see it not lining up nicely. A depleted Patriots team with a massive bonehead ST play gave away the last game. Health is as good as its been in months, and DEN has Harris issue and Peyton looks like a corpse. I am trying to not get too confident, but I just don't see Patriots losing this game.

 

[86spike]

Ok, here we go! For the record, all season I've felt that Denver would likely win the AFC west (which turned out to be a much closer race than I thought it would be) but would have a hard time getting deep in the playoffs. Getting to AFCCG has now surpassed my expectations.

Any further success for Denver will require more of the same formula that has gotten us this far: stout defense.

It's really as simple as that. This offense is very unlikely to light up the scoreboard so the best they can expect is taking care of the football, using as much clock as they can to keep NE's offense on the bench, and hoping for a couple of great drives sprinkled among the ones that stall out for punts and FGs. The defense will be the key. It has been all year.

Home field advantage is very good. But it won't matter if the defense can't keep Brady in check. I think it will be very fascinating to see how they try to cope with Gronk and Edelman and if they can keep a lid on those two long enough to get through the OL and pressure Brady.

I don't know what to predict as far as winner goes. I think it will be close and all of us will be reaching for the Rolaids in the fourth.

 

[j44thor]

I'll feel better about the game once we see Collins and Hightower practicing.

Without them healthy Denver can run it down NE throat, limit possessions and gas the d by the end of the game.
Pitt has a strong run d, particularly at LB, which played a huge role in them stopping Denver all day.

Don't let McManus have a chance to tie or win the game late, he could probably hit from 70 in Denver.

 

[Youkilis vs Wild]

A close game, on the other hand, will likely give the refs what they need to do the league's bidding. And I am not typically a conspiracy theory guy but I have no doubt that the league would prefer the diminished Peyton Manning in the superbowl to the Patriots.

I actually have a hard time believing this. The league has so vilified New England that I would think the team is considered a ratings juggernaut for hatewatch purposes. I think a perceived-as-villainous New England in the Super Bowl is probably better from a ratings perspective.

 

[86spike]

WRT the refs: haven't we snuffed out the "League-directed Conspiracy" stuff here on SOSH?

The refs might end up incompetent and might be influenced by the home crowd to a small degree, but they won't be taking orders from Goodell.

 

[DJnVa]

So the NFL wants to put Manning up against the Carolina or Arizona defense in the Super Bowl, then have a myriad of iffy calls go his way as he throws fluttering passes all over the place, in the biggest game of the year?

 

[Ed Hillel]

I'll feel better about the game once we see Collins and Hightower practicing.

Collins is a go for next week apparently and I'm unsure why Hightower wouldn't be practicing. Belichick is giving the team off until Wednesday, at least in terms of physical stuff.

 

[Slow Rheal]

Collins is a go for next week apparently and I'm unsure why Hightower wouldn't be practicing. Belichick is giving the team off until Wednesday, at least in terms of physical stuff.

Where did you hear the Collins info?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Is it Sunday yet?

 

[Norm Siebern]

WRT the refs: haven't we snuffed out the "League-directed Conspiracy" stuff here on SOSH?

The refs might end up incompetent and might be influenced by the home crowd to a small degree, but they won't be taking orders from Goodell.

No conspiracy, you are right. You are also right in that incompetence, the home field and human nature will be enough. It's not just bad penalties called, it's when they are called. There will be 3-4 crucial moments when incompetence and the home field will lead to devastating penalties against the visiting team. And equally important will be the non-calls. Again, incompetence and the home field will keep what should be an offensive holding call or a DPI call from going against the home team.

That's not conspiracy, that's just the way it goes. When is the last time you saw incompetent officiating help the away team?

As for Manning, I will be surprised if he finishes the game. I expect Osweiler to be playing by the second half if not sooner. Kubiak is not an idiot. If Denver does get behind by a significant amount (10 points) then Osweiler will come in.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I wish that 6 days was enough to acclimate to the altitude and that the Pats could travel to Denver today.

But I also know that if doing so conferred any advantage on visiting players, the Pats would already be there or en route.

I wanted Peyton to wear the 10 One and Done banner. But now, I have to admit that I am looking forward to the Pats ending his season and seeing the Manning Face and Manning Arm Flapping visited upon him by the team I root for.

 

[BlackJack]

As for Manning, I will be surprised if he finishes the game. I expect Osweiler to be playing by the second half if not sooner. Kubiak is not an idiot. If Denver does get behind by a significant amount (10 points) then Osweiler will come in.

Outside of injury or a lot (2+) of turnovers, I don't think Manning will get pulled. How many picks did he throw this year before they went to Osweiler in the first place?

As some others have already said, I am much more confident going into this game than I was two years ago. I thought the Pats had a chance in 2013 but as soon as Talib had to leave the game it was basically over. This year's team is much better on defense and offense whereas Denver is worse on both vs 2013.

 

[Dan Murfman]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After review of tape <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Broncos?src=hash">#Broncos</a> Manning outplayed <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash">#Patriots</a> Brady. He was more accurate. He had 9 drops by his receivers. <a href="https://twitter.com/nflnetwork">@nflnetwork</a></p>&mdash; Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) <a href="">January 18, 2016</a></blockquote>

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

LOL! Credibility.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I love it.

More fuel for the fire.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

So I guess the media is just going to forget about Edlemans drops and say Manning had a better game yesterday throwing knuckleballs and all...I want nothing more than a super bowl this year. Pats are going to need to overcome a lot.

 

[jimbobim]

Casserly embarrassed himself on WEEI in an amazingly cordial interview for how stupid he is ..

Brady Issues-
Ball placement- Pointed to the near interception at the end of the game. Did he miss the placements to Edelman and Gronk ? just soo stupid.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Outside of injury or a lot (2+) of turnovers, I don't think Manning will get pulled. How many picks did he throw this year before they went to Osweiler in the first place?

As some others have already said, I am much more confident going into this game than I was two years ago. I thought the Pats had a chance in 2013 but as soon as Talib had to leave the game it was basically over. This year's team is much better on defense and offense whereas Denver is worse on both vs 2013.

I agree with your overall assessment that the Pats are the better overal team this time, but the Denver D is clearly better than it was in 2013 by pretty much any measure.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After review of tape <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Broncos?src=hash">#Broncos</a> Manning outplayed <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash">#Patriots</a> Brady. He was more accurate. He had 9 drops by his receivers. <a href="https://twitter.com/nflnetwork">@nflnetwork</a></p>&mdash; Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) <a href="">January 18, 2016</a></blockquote>

Who's been wrong more than Charley Casserly?

 

[Norm Siebern]

One thing that can't happen if the Patriots are going to win is a time of possession like in the Chiefs game. If Denver has a great discrepancy in their favor the Patriots' defense will be gassed by the 4th quarter. In that air Denver could put up 3 scores in one 4th quarter.

 

[BlackJack]

I agree with your overall assessment that the Pats are the better overal team this time, but the Denver D is clearly better than it was in 2013 by pretty much any measure.

Yeah thinking about it again you're right. I have a hard time getting the Denver D out of my head from 2013 because the Pats couldn't do anything against them, whereas the game earlier this year the Pats were pretty effective even without JE11. But I suppose that has a lot more to do with NE's offense than Denver's defense.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Casserly embarrassed himself on WEEI in an amazingly cordial interview for how stupid he is ..

Brady Issues-
Ball placement- Pointed to the near interception at the end of the game. Did he miss the placements to Edelman and Gronk ? just soo stupid.

They did a good job on that interview, Casserly sounded so dumb they just let him keep talking. OK

 

[Jnai]

Charley Casserly

‏@CharleyCasserly

31m31 minutes ago

After watching #Broncos def vs #Steelers they will struggle vs #Brady Not a gd zone team. No gd answr for @RobGronkowski or @BradEdelman63

that's great, who the fuck is Brad Edelman?

 

[GregHarris]

Harris is still fighting injuries at corner. Bolden isnt looking good which leaves Denver with only three healthy safeies, one of which is Ward who isn't really a deep guy. Might be worth it to try some Martin go routes.

 

[Byrdbrain]

According to his twitter bio Brad Edelman is a former lineman for the Saints.
Who's been wrong more than Charlie Casserly.
OK

 

[BaseballJones]

Denver would get absolutely crushed by either Arizona or Carolina. I can't see a Peyton Manning-led offense (at this point in his career) scoring more than 13 points against either of those defenses at a neutral site. For us to have an interesting Super Bowl, the Patriots need to win.

I have mixed feelings about this game. On the one hand, I look at it and think the Patriots are just so much better. Their defense, when healthy, is as good as Denver's, IMO. And offensively, New England at full strength is significantly better.

But this is Denver. Worries about officiating aside (and I think we are all steeling ourselves for a pivotal OPI on Gronk or LaFell, or a key DPI on Ryan in a big spot), I can see Denver creating a couple of turnovers and getting some cheap points. I can see Manning making enough throws and Denver busting a couple of big runs. I can see Brady getting hit a lot and this being a close game in the final minutes.