Brady/Manning XVII

[dcmissle]

The drops were a problem, and you can't count on them being duplicated next week.

BUT, this is a case where you really have to watch the game. Manning was a game manager against a greatly wounded team who took no chances. If Elway and Kubiak did not have a "no-bullshit" sit down with Manning., Manning inferred it on his own. I'm absolutely convinced his ass was coming out of that game if he put the ball up for grabs.

Now if you think this is a viable strategy next week with the Pats having to settle for FGs on every possession, fine I suppose. But I tend to doubt it.

In any case, Casserly ignores that the Pats were demanding of Brady things that Manning was not permitted to try. Almost every Manning throw looked difficult.

 

[joe dokes]

The drops were a problem, and you can't count on them being duplicated next week.

BUT, this is a case where you really have to watch the game. Manning was a game manager against a greatly wounded team who took no chances. If Elway and Kubiak did not have a "no-bullshit" sit down with Manning., Manning inferred it on his own. I'm absolutely convinced his ass was coming out of that game if he put the ball up for grabs.

Now if you think this is a viable strategy next week with the Pats having to settle for FGs on every possession, fine I suppose. But I tend to doubt it.

In any case, Casserly ignores that the Pats were demanding of Brady things that Manning was not permitted to try. Almost every Manning throw looked difficult.

Manning played like Alex Smith with slightly more accuracy and willingness to throw in tight windows on short passes, but without the ability to run.

 

[m0ckduck]

Manning played like Alex Smith with slightly more accuracy and willingness to throw in tight windows on short passes, but without the ability to run.

+1. I had the thought during yesterday's game: "Manning looks like Alex Smith's upper body sewn onto my lower body."

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Harris is still fighting injuries at corner. Bolden isnt looking good which leaves Denver with only three healthy safeies, one of which is Ward who isn't really a deep guy. Might be worth it to try some Martin go routes.

I feel like Brady has more interceptions than completions on 40+ yard throws over the last several years. No thanks on the go routes, I see no reason they can't move the ball up and down the field with the usual stuff. Hope to see more for James White as well. Those little passes out of the backfield are so easy and safe with as much upside as any play based on what he's been doing with the ball in his hands.

 

[BaseballJones]

Peyton Manning may still get the ball where it needs to go most of the time, but my goodness his passes are UGLY. Everything is a wobbler. Everything. He just cannot throw a clean spiral anymore. I don't know why that's the case. Maybe the lost feeling in his fingers? I don't know. But when guys throw wobbly passes and they still get completed, I chalk that up to a sizable amount of luck.

Next week will be either very, very sweet, or very, very bitter. Losing to Manning and Denver would be an absolutely horrible pill to swallow. Knocking them out, advancing to the Super Bowl, and possibly ending Peyton's career would be so delicious.

There's no middle ground next week.

 

[Stitch01]

Im guessing if you look at film the Steelers were in ultra soft coverages all day.

Manning is just still having trouble driving the ball on longer throws, the best illustration being the one that Simms thought was tipped at the line. Its pretty incredible what he was able to do with the arm strength he had post neck injury in 2012 and 2013 but he's just crossed the line physically where he cant be an effective downfield passer. He can get the offense into the right play, he can read defenses, he can look to get the ball to his playmakers in space, but he has to start throwing 15 yard outs and seam patterns and stuff and he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The most striking thing to me about Manning was how long he was holding onto the ball. He used to be one of the best at getting the ball out of his hands so quickly, but Pittsburgh was able to run quite a few successful delayed blitzes against Manning yesterday. In his hay day, those delayed blitzes where an invitation for Manning to carve you up.

He's not a threat to run, he's not a threat to throw deep and if he's going to hold onto the ball longer than normal, then I think the Patriots should do exactly what Pittsburgh did and blitz a lot. Delayed blitzes, blitzes from the corner, 5-man blitzes, 6-man blitzes. It was effective.

 

[TomTerrific]

One thing that can't happen if the Patriots are going to win is a time of possession like in the Chiefs game. If Denver has a great discrepancy in their favor the Patriots' defense will be gassed by the 4th quarter. In that air Denver could put up 3 scores in one 4th quarter.

Well, sort of. NFL time isn't real time, and doesn't always correspond with plays that well. It's plays that matter, and sequencing to a lesser degree. Yesterday the TOP was quite skewed (almost 38-22) and yet I had little concern about the defense being gassed.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

Current weather forecast for Denver, 1pm MT next Sunday: mid-40s, 20% chance of rain, 5-10mph winds.

...Pittsburgh was able to run quite a few successful delayed blitzes against Manning yesterday. In his hay day, those delayed blitzes where an invitation for Manning to carve you up.

(sorry, couldn't resist)

 

[dcmissle]

Im guessing if you look at film the Steelers were in ultra soft coverages all day.

Manning is just still having trouble driving the ball on longer throws, the best illustration being the one that Simms thought was tipped at the line. Its pretty incredible what he was able to do with the arm strength he had post neck injury in 2012 and 2013 but he's just crossed the line physically where he cant be an effective downfield passer. He can get the offense into the right play, he can read defenses, he can look to get the ball to his playmakers in space, but he has to start throwing 15 yard outs and seam patterns and stuff and he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

That might be the best CBS moment of the year. Somebody in production probably is getting crush for dialing up the replay that forced the recantation.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

The refs have been largely unobtrusive in the playoffs so far. Hell, it was their lack of involvement that led to the Steelers-Bengals game getting out of hand. I bet the league office has been telling the crews to get the hell out of the way, they don't want the controversy. So I'm not too worried about it. Bad calls will happen because bad calls happen every game. But it'll be even.

I am not a believer in an NFL directed conspiracy through the refs to target the pats. It just doesn't make sense to me how the dimwits in the NFL would pull it off without fucking it up.

But the unobtrusive streak from NFL refs worry me. Incompetence is going to raise its ugly head at some point in the playoffs because that's what happens in the NFL playoffs. I guess you could argue it already happened in the bengals debacle. But I can't believe we will go a full post season without a well intentioned but grossly incompetent game changing call at a critical time.

It may go against the pats or it may not. But it's an element outside of Bill's control and that worries me.

 

[Leather]

The refs fucked up a coin toss this weekend.

A coin toss.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Well, sort of. NFL time isn't real time, and doesn't always correspond with plays that well. It's plays that matter, and sequencing to a lesser degree. Yesterday the TOP was quite skewed (almost 38-22) and yet I had little concern about the defense being gassed.

I've always wondered why TOP was always used instead of plays run. A 3-and-out with 3 running plays could result in about 2 minutes of TOP, whereas 3 incomplete passes may only account for 15 seconds. Even more ironic, the defense is almost undoubtedly more fatigued by rushing the passer and covering receivers than in stopping the running plays.

Likewise, what is more tiring to defend? A 12-play 8 minute drive or a 12-play 4 minute drive? I'd argue the latter because you don't have time to rest between plays, but TOP tells the exact opposite story.

TOP may have had some value in the more balanced era, but it's a pretty worthless stat at this point IMO.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Current weather forecast for Denver, 1pm MT next Sunday: mid-40s, 20% chance of rain, 5-10mph winds.

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Awesome.

 

[86spike]

Denver and KC are rather similar teams right now.

Both have stout defenses with talent on the line, at LB and in the secondary. Both have dink and dunk offenses that click best when they can establish the ground game.

The defenses are quite similar. On offense Denver has better playmakers at WR but a weaker OL. Manning is less of a physical threat than Smith now but he does have a strategic/mental edge. Denver will have home field advantage.

Otherwise, I'd say NE is facing a very similar challenge as they did last weekend. In that game KC was basically unable to pressure Brady and he was able to make them pay often enough to get a lead and hold it. If Denver wins, I think it will be due mainly to solving the pressure puzzle that KC could not. If Miller, Ware, Wolfe and Jackson don't pressure Brady, NE is going to win.

Toughest game of the year for the Broncos.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Zolak: I came into yesterday's game rooting for Pittsburgh and wanting a home game. But as I talked to more people connected, they said no, no, no you want Denver. The matchup you want is Denver.

 

[Stitch01]

The refs fucked up a coin toss this weekend.

A coin toss.

Did they show the Pats coin toss on TV? They half fucked that one up too, initially called out the wrong team winning the toss.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Did they show the Pats coin toss on TV? They half fucked that one up too, initially called out the wrong team winning the toss.

The opening toss? I don't think they did. Do they ever show the opening coin toss anymore? I mean, other than in the Super Bowl. Seems like the only time they ever televise coin tosses is in OT.

 

[Stitch01]

Well, sort of. NFL time isn't real time, and doesn't always correspond with plays that well. It's plays that matter, and sequencing to a lesser degree. Yesterday the TOP was quite skewed (almost 38-22) and yet I had little concern about the defense being gassed.

Front seven was real tired on the last drive, basically zero pass rush and Smith could just take off and run wherever he wanted at will. It was a big part of why BB passed on 2nd and 12 on that last drive IMHO (the other part being that I think BB is a bit afraid of another punt block based on some of his decisions the last few weeks).

Usually in that spot when the Pats can bleed the other team of timeouts and make them go a full field the Pats just run and punt and make the other team go the full field but the defense looked real gassed.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Yeah they actually fucked up two coin tosses they called the wrong winner in the Pats game and had to have a do-over in the GB game due to the coin not rotating.

 

[8slim]

You're delusional.

What about yesterday's game made you think they should have won by even 1 touchdown, nevermind 3 touchdowns? If Pitt doesn't turn it over late there, Pittsburgh wins walking away.

Also, the two teams are about as even as it gets on offense except the HUGE ADVANTAGE the Pats have at QB. Denver's defense is good, but it's not so much better than the Pats as to make up for the advantage at QB. Don't sleep on the Pats defense.

So Denver's receivers running open all day, and all their drops, don't count? If the Broncos could hang onto the ball they'd have added another 100 yards and at least 10 points.

Yes, Pitt could have won as well. But it seemed to me that Denver left a lot more in the field then Pitt did.

 

[cheekydave]

Hard to seperate my brain from my gut. My brain says Pats win this going away if Hightower and Collins are healthy. My Gut tells me OPIs are called on US for picks, and NO Holdings are called on Denver. One thought though brings me some satisfaction, IF Denver wins, they are going to get absolutely CRUSHED in the superbowl by the NFC Team. PULVERIZED. And the NFL has to know that, so maybe we will get a straight game.

But it is Goodell, so, I have zero faith the refs will not have an impact.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Denver and KC are rather similar teams right now.

Both have stout defenses with talent on the line, at LB and in the secondary. Both have dink and dunk offenses that click best when they can establish the ground game.

The defenses are quite similar. On offense Denver has better playmakers at WR but a weaker OL. Manning is less of a physical threat than Smith now but he does have a strategic/mental edge. Denver will have home field advantage.

Otherwise, I'd say NE is facing a very similar challenge as they did last weekend. In that game KC was basically unable to pressure Brady and he was able to make them pay often enough to get a lead and hold it. If Denver wins, I think it will be due mainly to solving the pressure puzzle that KC could not. If Miller, Ware, Wolfe and Jackson don't pressure Brady, NE is going to win.

Toughest game of the year for the Broncos.

The KC-Denver comparison seems pretty accurate but I think your coverage scheme and players are more important than the pass rush to solve the puzzle. KC got no pressure largely because Brady consistently had the ball out two seconds after the snap (his time to throw averaged 2.19 seconds). If he is able to get the ball out that quickly to receivers open enough for him to feel confident throwing in that rhythm, there's really nothing that the pass rush can do. If you can cover those quick option routes and/or confuse Brady enough to make him frequently hold the ball another beat, your pass rushers should have time to win against a pretty mediocre OL.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

If anyone was having trouble getting excited for this game, I can solve that with about 4 mins of your time: take a look at this video the Patriots posted. Featuring commentary on the nature of rivalries from Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Stewart, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, Martina Navratilova and Chrissie Evert, Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras, and the most intelligent commenters among them, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Walton. Plus clips of Manning and Brady screaming at themselves, their teammates, and the whims of fate.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

The collective wisdom of the board has hit all the key points: Patriots are a better team in every phase of the game, and with neutral officiating this should be a strong win.

My only concern is the officiating. Not the calls that will be made, but the "calls" that won't be made. Will they let them play and or make select calls at key moments which favor Denver? It could conceivably shift the trajectory somewhat depending on the situation. Specifically I will be keeping an eye on two things: 1) are they going to give 87 grief if he breaths on anyone? 2) How touchy are they going to be about Denver holding?

To the first point, I would be surprised if they did not go after 87 for OPI. They did in the first Denver game, and if there is pressure from the league office, the home team, and the fans I would almost expect it at some point. Question then becomes how egregiously bad of a call, and the timing for the offense. Gronk has to play smart and bigger than the fools in this game within a game, and if anyone can do it, I think he can. But in the back of his mind I'm sure he's thinking of Ward and who on Denver is targeting his knee.

In some ways it's a lot to put on a single player, and these shouldn't really ever be concerns. But I guess that's why this is the NFL.

Second, I expect significant holding from the Denver offensive line to protect Manning's HGH riddled corpse. How much they get away with could be a factor, and if they call it relatively early in the game I would actually take that as a good sign. Do I expect them to? Not really.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Front seven was real tired on the last drive, basically zero pass rush and Smith could just take off and run wherever he wanted at will. It was a big part of why BB passed on 2nd and 12 on that last drive IMHO (the other part being that I think BB is a bit afraid of another punt block based on some of his decisions the last few weeks).

Usually in that spot when the Pats can bleed the other team of timeouts and make them go a full field the Pats just run and punt and make the other team go the full field but the defense looked real gassed.

Agreed. KC ran 30 offensive plays in the 4th quarter up to that point, including 18 on the previous drive (its officially 16 but a couple were called back by penalties). Its tough to go three and out and put the D right back on the field there. That also was 83 official plays total for the KC offense by that point, which is a big number.

Overall, I expect DEN to play at a fairly slow tempo and try to limit the number of possessions of each team. That will probably increase their TOP advantage but I don't expect them to run a huge number of plays. KC was basically the same but they just converted 3rd downs all game at an abnormal and unsustainable rate.

 

[soxhop411]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After review of tape <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Broncos?src=hash">#Broncos</a> Manning outplayed <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash">#Patriots</a> Brady. He was more accurate. He had 9 drops by his receivers. <a href="https://twitter.com/nflnetwork">@nflnetwork</a></p>&mdash; Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) <a href="">January 18, 2016</a></blockquote>

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/47641/whos-been-wrong-more-than-charley-casserly

 

[pappymojo]

If given the opportunity, does NE elect to receive the opening kick off? I believe that scoring early and often will greatly benefit their defense by forcing Denver to rely more on their passing attack.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Gronk has to play smart and bigger

I thought Gronk showed an adjustment to all the OPI calls on his first TD v. KC. I think in the recent past he may have fully extended his arms to give himself space moving towards the pylon. His action was much more restrained and subtle, relying more on his size than brute force. Any greater arm extension on that toss and he likely gets called for OPI.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Haha fucking Bill going in.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

So Denver's receivers running open all day, and all their drops, don't count? If the Broncos could hang onto the ball they'd have added another 100 yards and at least 10 points.

Yes, Pitt could have won as well. But it seemed to me that Denver left a lot more in the field then Pitt did.

The fact that the receivers were running around open all day is more of indictment against the offense than it is a feature. Manning was struggling with the pass rush and couldn't get the ball out quickly enough. I don't know how you can use that as an argument for how good the offense was. Your QB is terrible, couldn't find open receivers and couldn't deliver a solid throw when he did.

Again, I think you're delusional. They put together exactly one good drive yesterday and that was after a back-breaking turnover and huge momentum swing.

There's no chance Denver could have won by 3 touchdowns yesterday.

 

[Stitch01]

To be clear, that's an old quote from BB.

Also not sure exactly why BB hates meteorologists, but its right up there with his instaface joke as core press conference material.

 

[DJnVa]

Haha fucking Bill going in.

Yeah, that's 6 years old.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

nm

 

[j44thor]

The KC-Denver comparison seems pretty accurate but I think your coverage scheme and players are more important than the pass rush to solve the puzzle. KC got no pressure largely because Brady consistently had the ball out two seconds after the snap (his time to throw averaged 2.19 seconds). If he is able to get the ball out that quickly to receivers open enough for him to feel confident throwing in that rhythm, there's really nothing that the pass rush can do. If you can cover those quick option routes and/or confuse Brady enough to make him frequently hold the ball another beat, your pass rushers should have time to win against a pretty mediocre OL.

While Brady's quick release was certainly critical with slowing down the KC pass rush let's not forget that Justin Houston played only 8 snaps. A healthy Ware/Miller with Wolfe/Jackson in the middle is a significantly stronger pass rush compared to what KC was trotting out there. If Gronk has to stay in to block more often it is going to be a bit more difficult to get the ball out that quick, esp if DEN is smart and brackets Edelman.

It will be interesting to see how DEN D schemes against NE spread offense. If they stay in soft zone like they did for much of PIT game it will be fairly easy to move the ball. If they get aggressive and press man and rely on the pass rush to get to Brady it could be tough to move the ball.

 

[Saints Rest]

The refs fucked up a coin toss this weekend.

A coin toss.

I was listening to Boomer and Carton (or whatever that show on WFAN is called) this morning while they tried to discuss the science behind this. It was painful and a reminder of how "science" and "sports reporters" can't be used in the same breath. They tried to flip a quarter in the studio without letting it rotate. Carton was trying to explain that gravity would force the coin to rotate. Boomer was saying how the coin the refs use is heavier so that would affect their experiment. Carton explained that weight (sic) had no affect on gravity and that two objects of different weight would land at the same time. Boomer would not agree. "I just don't know if that is really true." Of course, Carton was insistent that it was gravity that drove the rotational vector of the coin.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

I thought Gronk showed an adjustment to all the OPI calls on his first TD v. KC. I think in the recent past he may have fully extended his arms to give himself space moving towards the pylon. His action was much more restrained and subtle, relying more on his size than brute force. Any greater arm extension on that toss and he likely gets called for OPI.

Great point. It was hard to tell from what I saw but your description makes sense. If he can replicate that approach it will go a long way toward limiting the zebras.

I mean think about this for a second. He's always been a brute force that cannot be contained. Adding subtlety and nuance to his game? Watch out.

 

[Saints Rest]

While Brady's quick release was certainly critical with slowing down the KC pass rush let's not forget that Justin Houston played only 8 snaps. A healthy Ware/Miller with Wolfe/Jackson in the middle is a significantly stronger pass rush compared to what KC was trotting out there. If Gronk has to stay in to block more often it is going to be a bit more difficult to get the ball out that quick, esp if DEN is smart and brackets Edelman.

It will be interesting to see how DEN D schemes against NE spread offense. If they stay in soft zone like they did for much of PIT game it will be fairly easy to move the ball. If they get aggressive and press man and rely on the pass rush to get to Brady it could be tough to move the ball.

Agreed. Simms was making the point that Denver was playing soft because their fear from Pitt was about Steeler wideouts getting behind their DB's. That is not a fear when playing the Pats.

The two ways that defenses have confounded the Pats seem to be:

• Up the middle pass rush.
• Press coverage out wide, and flood the middle.

 

[Stitch01]

While Brady's quick release was certainly critical with slowing down the KC pass rush let's not forget that Justin Houston played only 8 snaps. A healthy Ware/Miller with Wolfe/Jackson in the middle is a significantly stronger pass rush compared to what KC was trotting out there. If Gronk has to stay in to block more often it is going to be a bit more difficult to get the ball out that quick, esp if DEN is smart and brackets Edelman.

It will be interesting to see how DEN D schemes against NE spread offense. If they stay in soft zone like they did for much of PIT game it will be fairly easy to move the ball. If they get aggressive and press man and rely on the pass rush to get to Brady it could be tough to move the ball.

Meh, is there a single game this year with Edelman and Gronk healthy where the Pats had trouble moving the ball? The first Jets game is probably the closest and they scored 30 points. I'm just basically never worried about this offense getting shut down with those guys healthy. It almost never happens, they eventually find a way to move the ball.

 

[JimD]

Any thoughts on how DeMarcus Ware played yesterday coming off his knee injury?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Any thoughts on how DeMarcus Ware played yesterday coming off his knee injury?

He was OK. Didn't look dominant in the pass rush, but did pretty well.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

I think the reason for my own calm this week going into Sunday's game is the belief that if the visiting teams were reversed, the Patriots would be hosting the Chiefs this Sunday. I am more afraid of Kensil in the stands or Blandino on the Bat Phone in NYC than I am of the on field officials. Chung, McCourty and Butler will have duck soup served on Sunday.

On a side note, I would love it if Al Jazeera's second source went public with the Washington Post or some venue that Boomer and the press crew would find credible.. because as we all know, "Nationwide is on his side."

edit: typo

 

[brandonchristensen]

Yeah, that's 6 years old.

Well shit. Still.

Bill went in.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Is @TheoShmeo Charley Casserly?

Good burn.

 

[soxhop411]

RT @MikeKlis: Broncos have lost returner Omar Bolden for season, per sources. Partial PCL tear. No surgery. #9sports

 

[loshjott]

Omar is (thankfully, not really) dead.

 

[Granite Sox]

...
Second, I expect significant holding from the Denver offensive line to protect Manning's HGH riddled corpse. How much they get away with could be a factor, and if they call it relatively early in the game I would actually take that as a good sign. Do I expect them to? Not really.

Denver's RT, Michael Schofield, is awful. Sheard will crush him on passing downs if Jones can go on the other side. Schofield will be someone to watch for holding calls.

To be clear, that's an old quote from BB.

Also not sure exactly why BB hates meteorologists, but its right up there with his instaface joke as core press conference material.

You'd be salty if your mail got mixed up with Barry Burbank's, too. Just sayin'.

 

[Montana Fan]

Pats fans, I'm excited for you and am pulling for NE but I don't have time to read this whole thread. Can one of you tell me what Brady's career record is vs Manning?

 

[E5 Yaz]

I thought Gronk showed an adjustment to all the OPI calls on his first TD v. KC. I think in the recent past he may have fully extended his arms to give himself space moving towards the pylon. His action was much more restrained and subtle, relying more on his size than brute force. Any greater arm extension on that toss and he likely gets called for OPI.

That non-call was the result of the offiating team, not on any change from Gronk. The officiating crew against KC was noted for calling few, if any OPIs during the season.

One of the OPIs against Gronk against Denver was exactly the type of situation you describe above -- a subtle move with his left shoulder that created separation on the break. It all comes down to what official is watching Gronk

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Pats fans, I'm excited for you and am pulling for NE but I don't have time to read this whole thread. Can one of you tell me what Brady's career record is vs Manning?

http://bfy.tw/3n18