John Farrell must cringe every time he hears of yet another Wright slippage. Stupid move using Wright as a pinch runner when he had a younger, in better shape, recent national leaguer he could have used instead.
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Back to Buchholz
- Thread starter In my lifetime
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Clay held the line yesterday and gave the team 6.1 innings of 1-run ball with 9 Ks and only 2 BB. While the speed on his fastball seemed to stay at around 95 throughout his outing (Brooks hasn't updated yet), it did not appear to be as effective as the change (very good) and the curve (nasty!). I'm guessing his FB location wasn't that good, but I think he did throw it for a fair amount of strikes. I don't think Clay threw a ton of cutters, splitters, or sliders, but in the end, hard to argue with the results no matter what. Clay was also pretty efficient with his pitches, getting thru 6.1 in 94 pitches. The squirrels were napping yesterday and the Sox were the beneficiary. All this being said, the TB lineup is butt outside of Longo.
Brad Miller has been good and Forsyth is a good hitter. Outside of those 3 it's a collection of dreck hitting .220 to .240.
The Rays have the 14th best wRC+ in baseball, 8th out of 15th in the AL. Fifth best hitting team in baseball over the last 30 days.
They do have the 3rd highest K% in MLB, but also the 4th best ISO. They're, in aggregate, an average hitting team and have been an elite one since the ASB.
Part of their poor record is a function of being the worst team playing in a division with three solidly above average teams and another average one.
They're 11th in the AL in runs/game, slightly below average (AL) in BB, strike out a ton, and are 2nd to last in OBP. They do slug a bit above league average and they certainly have been hot lately, but more importantly to me, it seems to me like an offense that is easy to pitch around outside of 1-3 (Forsythe, Kiermaier, Longo). The Sox' weakest hitter last night (Shaw) would've had a higher OBP (.317) and SLG (.435) than 2/3 of the Rays' lineup and Souza (last in WAR for RF at -1.7) and the C spot have been real drek this season.
Let. It. Go.
The positive takeaways here are Clay Buchholz gets another opportunity to contribute and Steven Wright gets a blow right around the time players start to feel worn down.
So pretty much exactly what I said. Outside of some R/G luck, they are an averageish offense whose relatively mediocre BB% and K% is offset by a top-tier ISO. Not great, but not a Braves-level offense, either.
I'm not saying they were Murderer's Row, but Buchholz beat the crap out of a team last night that has a propensity for hitting the ball hard when they do make contact. That's even somewhat impressive given that Buchholz's HR/9 was leading the league (in a bad way) until he was sent to the bullpen. We shouldn't diminish as "eh, they aren't a very good team, so not sure what to make of a <2.00 game FIP performance."
Also, FWIW, Buchholz registered 6 swings/misses on the fastball and 5 on the cutter last night. I don't have time to dig up the tweet, but one of the beat writers (Speier? BriMac?) noted that that was his highest whiff rate on the 4-seamer at least since last year (it might have been longer than that). After the game Farrell also said something along the lines of "that's the best fastball he's had all year."
TBH, without really analyzing the PF/X data, my guess is Buchholz's recent run of success has centered around the FB not getting rocked. Early in the season he had good peripherals when using the change and curveball -- it was just the FB was so bad it undid all that good. Now that the FB as played more of an averageish pitch, his secondary stuff can get people out with more regularity.
Agreed. Definitely a step forward for Buch and a great sign for the rotation and pitching staff generally for the home stretch. Clay has earned his spot in the rotation for the time being and is stretched out, so I think it makes sense to have him continue to start. Although I do subscribe to the notion that players benefit from defined roles, I can see Wright, Buch, Pom, and EdRo's usage being a bit fluid until it settles down for the last 2-3 rounds through the rotation.
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In the month of August, Tampa's Team OPS is 4th in the AL and actually a bit higher than Boston's at .776 vs. .766
Two of these four pitchers would need to go to the bullpen in the playoffs. Wright, Buch and Pom have the experience, but with Edro's fragility this year they should begin his transition when he and Wright are ready.
Can he be optioned and recalled this late without burning one?
They've already optioned him this year, so sending him down again wouldn't burn anything since it's already been burnt.
But there's no chance they option him at this point. He's not going to gain anything in the 10-12 days he might be down there that he can't do at the big league level instead. If they think he's headed to the pen in the post-season, they'll "transition" him in September with the big league club.
Or they'll "transition" him like they did Felix Doubront in 2013 after his 27-start season -- one appearance out of the pen near the end of the season in which he gets bombed before near-flawless post-season relieving.
Thanks for option info. Thought he could throw a few times in PAW to get a feel for preparation in relief.
Farrell on the radio pregame said the decision hasn't been made yet. It depends on how Eduardo feels after a bullpen tomorrow.
A six-man rotation hasn't been discussed yet, but may be on the table after September callups.
A six-man rotation hasn't been discussed yet, but may be on the table after September callups.
Farrell did specifically address speculation regarding a 6-man rotation during Wednesday's pregame interview on EEI, he said it was unlikely for the time being because it would take a bullpen arm off the table.
Then again, as mentioned, September 1st is a week away.
Then again, as mentioned, September 1st is a week away.
Clay in his 3 starts is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and, assuming he stays in the rotation, will now be facing watered down rosters in September. His last 2 starts he's looked pretty damn good.
Now it looks like we will actually have the discussion of "will the Sox pick up his option this offseason?"
Now it looks like we will actually have the discussion of "will the Sox pick up his option this offseason?"
Did you see the contract signed by Ian Kennedy last year? And the quality of the pitching free agents this offseason? If he finishes the year with a sound right arm you pick up the option. If they choose not to trade him that's a separate mistake. But even pitching poorly Clay on a one year deal with the ability to subsidize it should at least bring back a prospect near the bottom of the top 100 lists. Getting another Brian Johnson type in the organization wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's already been announced he's back in the bullpen. Wright is starting tonight, Rodriguez on Sunday. With an off-day Thursday, a 6-man rotation makes no sense for now, so using him out of the pen is the correct move.
Truly dislike this move.
With all the issues they've had with SP, you're going to move a guy that has been excellent (not to mention a very good soldier about all of this) and goes on ridiculous, top 10 starter hot streaks? For a guy that's coming off of injury?
I'd prefer to see if this is the start of one of those Cy Buchholz runs and take the banged up guys slow.
With all the issues they've had with SP, you're going to move a guy that has been excellent (not to mention a very good soldier about all of this) and goes on ridiculous, top 10 starter hot streaks? For a guy that's coming off of injury?
I'd prefer to see if this is the start of one of those Cy Buchholz runs and take the banged up guys slow.
Wright's been pitching like a top 10 starter for much of this season. He should get his spot back without question. Price, Porcello, and Pomeranz have outpitched Buchholz over his return to the rotation.
I could see the argument for EdRo, but then he looked excellent before tweaking his hamstring and is part of the team's long term plans and the organization likely doesn't want to change his usage pattern to that of a reliever when he's just coming back from the hamstring.
Also, Buchholz being "a very good soldier" about getting a bullpen demotion for pitching to a damn near 6 ERA isn't something deserving of a reward. As someone else said (in a different thread I believe) if Buchholz did even moderately better for the first half the Sox never have to trade a top prospect for Pomeranz in the first place.
I agree with this (and absolutely looking at Edro specifically). I'm not advocating for Clay because of the soldier bit (although it is a positive for me), but because he's looked great, he has proven he can be great, and we know he can get on really good rolls. I'd prefer to ride that hot hand and not push Edro and Wright post-injury when you've got someone performing. I mean, you said it right there. Edro looked great until he got hurt again.
I don't buy the premise. His second half ERA is a shiny 3.00 in 3 starts and 8 relief appearances, but that belies his 4.63 xFIP in that same span. That ERA is built on the back of a .269 BABIP and 0 HR allowed. He pitched a very good game against the Rays the other day, but those other 2 starts were smoke and mirrors. He may very well have been about to go on one of his excellent hot streaks, but I don't see any evidence to indicate it's likely.
The six man rotation sounds perfect to me.... There still has to be some concern regarding Pomeranz' innings despite the age when it's deemed safe to elevate innings on an arm. Then if we make the playoffs, Price and Porcello are a given with a coin toss for the 3 and ( occasionally needed) 4th guy.
Huh? I'm not sure about anything you typed here--perhaps it's all sarcasm.
They're not going to a 6 man rotation, and Price and Porcello are starting games 1 and 2 of any series if the Sox can possibly help it. The only drama there is who starts game 3.
With the off-days on the next two Thursdays, going to a 6-man rotation now will be effectively be a 7-man rotation in terms of days of rest. Pitchers are creatures of habit and schedule. I don't think they'd be doing anyone any favors by disturbing their routines, particularly the guys who are going really well at the moment. Despite their workloads thus far, I doubt Porcello or Price want extra days off if it can be helped. There's plenty of time to rest in the off-season.
I don't understand any of this talk of a 6-man rotation considering the current performance of the pen. People should be ecstatic that we can add some ML talent to the pen in the near future and shed one of Abad/Taz/Hembree.
While I agree they won't go 6 man rotation, at least yet, due to what RedHawksFan wrote on the other point you misunderstand him as he said the same thing you did.
I will take issue with the fact that Price is a shoo in. Wright and Porcello are shoo ins. If Price pitches well then yeah, he is our guy, but if he scuffles and Pomeranz and Erod are continuing to do well then Price to the bullpen.
Price to the bullpen isn't happening. Assuming they could set up the rotation there is a 0% chance that he and Porcello don't get the first two games in some order.
I would say Wright would be favored for game 3 but that could change if he doesn't pitch well the rest of the way.
I would say Wright would be favored for game 3 but that could change if he doesn't pitch well the rest of the way.
Typing on my phone while drinking an out-of-work-early beer and having a smoke probably didn't do anything for clarity.
I was just saying if any time would be optimal for a 6 man rotation this is it with 6 starters all pitching well while reducing a little of the strain on Pomeranz innings bump. I'm aware it likely won't happen- but I think it should.
The second half of my post was summed up by what you said regarding playoff rotation.
I'm not going to look at a 3 game xFIP where he was building back his innings as indicative of much, but definitely appreciate the info.
I wouldn't go with a 6 man rotation; I would move Buchholz to the bullpen. Buchholz would be my 8th inning set up reliever. The Red Sox are obviously desperate for someone to step up and seize that responsibility.
(1) Notwithstanding his recent resurgence (small sample size), Buchholz has been a lousy SP for most of the season. (2) Buchholz has pitched from the bullpen this year and has done reasonably well in that capacity. (3) The other starters will be in the rotation next year (Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Price, Porcello, Wright), whereas I would be mildly surprised to see the Red Sox pick up Buchholz's option. Thus, Buchholz doesn't have a future with the Red Sox--the other SPs do. With that said, if Buchholz can perform as a shutdown 8th inning reliever for the rest of the season, I would be tempted to pick up his option for 2017, knowing he can be used in the bullpen next year while providing SP depth as well.
(1) Notwithstanding his recent resurgence (small sample size), Buchholz has been a lousy SP for most of the season. (2) Buchholz has pitched from the bullpen this year and has done reasonably well in that capacity. (3) The other starters will be in the rotation next year (Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Price, Porcello, Wright), whereas I would be mildly surprised to see the Red Sox pick up Buchholz's option. Thus, Buchholz doesn't have a future with the Red Sox--the other SPs do. With that said, if Buchholz can perform as a shutdown 8th inning reliever for the rest of the season, I would be tempted to pick up his option for 2017, knowing he can be used in the bullpen next year while providing SP depth as well.
I think it is less likely they stick an inferior pitcher in a playoff rotation, just because he is making thirty Million dollars. This is the team that benched a twenty million dollar player. When playoffs come, they are going to put the best rotation out there, assuming they make it. Also given that Wright has been the ace of the staff, how is he not assured a spot in the playoff rotation?
Health.
If he comes back tonight and pitches well the rest of the way with no ill-effects from the shoulder injury, he's surely a lock for a playoff rotation spot. But that's still an "if".
You need a minimum of three for a playoff rotation regardless, and odds are good he's one of the top three. The order in which they pitch doesn't really mean a whole hell of a lot.
I don't think it is a given that Wright has been the ace of the staff, I would argue that Porcello has been better and on any given night I would still prefer Price. He's been really good, much better than anyone could have ever thought he would be but in addition to the health question there is also the fact that he can't pitch in the rain and he can't pitch very well when it is really humid and there begin to be questions.
If he comes back and looks good then I would say he would likely be the game 3 starter but I could see him in the bullpen if things don't go very well. It is the knuckleball after all, it has been known to come and go.
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It might also depend on the opponent. A team like Cleveland for example, runs a lot. A dancing knuckleball makes throwing out runners hell for catchers. Even the great Leon.
If you don't think Price is a shoe-in based on things outside of numbers I'm not sure what I can say that will convince you.
if you want to limit Pomeranz innings, would it be better to go to a 6 man rotation or just skip his spot in the rotation?
If it becomes that much of a concern, they can skip him. I don't see it being much of a concern, though.