Back to Buchholz
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I hope this little wake up call gives him a little
Boost and he goes on one of his patented runs.
Boost and he goes on one of his patented runs.
At least when Clay gives up bombs in the first inning, we have a somewhat established expectation that he might go "Good Clay" for 3-4 innings. I'm OK with a devil you know approach at this point.
I'm relieved. I do not know why. But all of a sudden, this season seems to be rapidly heading in the wrong direction, and the fact that there are only 2.5 reliable-isn starters seems to be why. I highly doubt Clay is the answer, but he isn't worse than any of these other guys, and we know he has the ability to be much better. We don't know that about Eliias, Owens, O'Sullivan, or even EdRo. Frustrating as hell to watch.
I would call it 3 reliable starters. However, it is now obvious that the RS need to trade for starting pitching help. Not necessarily an ace, but a #3/4 pitcher. For this year we have seen enough of the Pawtucket staff of Elias, Owens and Sullivan for my liking. EdRo is struggling and my guess is that this is at least partially related to his knee, so I would not be surprised if it is not long before he heads off to the DL or Pawtucket. Even if he turns it around, it is hard to expect more than 1 #5 starter out of the Clay/EdRo/Kelly (who is now just throwing off flat ground and is probably 2 weeks or so away from a return to the minors) trio when taken as a whole. At this point, the best bet out of those 3 is Clay right now.
So the rotation seems to be
Price
Wright
Porcello
#4 - currently vacant/wishful thinking that it is Clay and EdRo or real optimism of a lightning bolt strike to heal and fix Kelly/trade
Clay or EdRo
Of course, a trade in a league where most teams need pitching is difficult and can be expensive in terms of prospects. However, it is certainly hard to watch when every 5th game at the best case scenario becomes a throwaway and bullpen killer.
So the rotation seems to be
Price
Wright
Porcello
#4 - currently vacant/wishful thinking that it is Clay and EdRo or real optimism of a lightning bolt strike to heal and fix Kelly/trade
Clay or EdRo
Of course, a trade in a league where most teams need pitching is difficult and can be expensive in terms of prospects. However, it is certainly hard to watch when every 5th game at the best case scenario becomes a throwaway and bullpen killer.
I would suggest that if we only have three reliable starters it's a pretty good indication that we shouldn't trade for starting pitching help.
I would also suggest that your conclusion that Eduardo Rodriguez is soon to go on the DL because of the knee is unnecessary. Were you watching today or yesterday (I don't remember which, maybe both) when Remy was talking about how it is due to the knee not because the knee isn't healthy, but because the knee threw Rodriguez' mechanics out of whack. They showed several little things that were different between his delivery this year and last, and they showed a coach--I assume Carl Willis--reacting with some excitement at the following bullpen session.
If--and it's a pretty big if--Rodriguez performs reasonably well, then we're going to have four reliable starters and it makes sense to go out and get a fifth and maybe some bullpen help or a better platoon partner for Chris Young in left.
You have misconstrued my point, that being that the RS have 3 reliable starters and several possibilities after that. Taking the possibility of Clay/EdRo/or less likely Kelly, one would hope that would make a total of 4 pitchers of the 5 needed. Counting on those 3 to fill both the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation is being overly optimistic. The Pawtucket staff has been tried and is not the answer. Thus, the RS need to trade to fill this spot in the backend of the rotation.
Just finished watching Teheran throw a gem of a one hit shut-out of the slumping Mets. Originally I proposed a trade for Teheran but recently suggested Harvey of the Mets. I think the trade for Teheran is far better for both teams, depending on what Braves want. Considering Espinoza, Benintendi, Moncada are untoucables and Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley Jr. are not going anywhere there is still a depth of talent for the rebuilding Braves. How about Devers, Sam Travis (although dl'd for season) or a pitching prospect? Perhaps Braves would want more and I think Sox should go for more as it'd be a shame to waste the best offense in baseball.
Footnote: Had the chance to see Braves No. 3 first round pick Ian Anderson, 18 yo RHP hits 96 mphnand four excellent pitches, two seam fastball, change up curve and slider.
Footnote: Had the chance to see Braves No. 3 first round pick Ian Anderson, 18 yo RHP hits 96 mphnand four excellent pitches, two seam fastball, change up curve and slider.
They never really should have taken Buchholz out of the rotation in the first place given the alternatives. It was obvious to anyone he still had the best stuff and was healthy. Just be patient. We will see good Clay before the season is much older.
I certainly hope we will- Good Clay is a beautiful thing to watch. But Bad Clay is terrible, and I'm just fine with the decision they made to explore their other options till he started to figure it out in the bullpen. I don't know how you can claim he's obviously been our best option when we still had untested guys going well in Pawtucket. Buc's given us a 76 ERA+ and 5.61 FIP so far, and that includes his better relief innings.
I am not convinced that Teheran is even remotely worth both of them. He's good, but is he great? If he's not great, do we really want to part with both Devers and Espinoza? As has been pointed out, the Sox are going to need power, and Devers has that. The best pitcher we have is likely to opt out after 2018 and finding a replacement ace would be very difficult.
When you're getting good young pitchers, and you're getting multiple years of control at reasonable costs, you often pay a premium. I'm not sure that premium is worth paying.
Actually, she started coming to all the games because he could pitch on any day. That was a nice bonus...
Back to Buchholz again
also appears Buchholz will go back in the rotation, but the Red Sox won’t need a fifth starter until July 23. He hasn’t appeared in a game since July 2.
“Right now, we’ll work to get Clay back in there at some point,” Farrell said. “Where that slots in after the New York series remains to be worked through, but that’s the tentative plan right now.”
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/07/10/red-sox-notes-eduardo-rodriguez-to-start-friday-in-new-york-clay-buchholz-back-in-starting-rotation/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
also appears Buchholz will go back in the rotation, but the Red Sox won’t need a fifth starter until July 23. He hasn’t appeared in a game since July 2.
“Right now, we’ll work to get Clay back in there at some point,” Farrell said. “Where that slots in after the New York series remains to be worked through, but that’s the tentative plan right now.”
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/07/10/red-sox-notes-eduardo-rodriguez-to-start-friday-in-new-york-clay-buchholz-back-in-starting-rotation/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The key words in that quote are "Right now." Sure it could mean that he will start. It could also mean that he could be DFA'd or dealt, or that a trade will be made before the need for a fifth starter
I still think if the Pomeranz had held the lead and the Sox had been up 6-0 in the 9th inning you would have seen Buchholz pitch on Wednesday.
With Barnes or someone else up as soon as a runner reached base
With Barnes or someone else up as soon as a runner reached base
Agreed. With a lead, 6 x (innings remaining) might be the "Buchholz viability factor."
I think he'll try. I dont have a very good handle on what his value is percevied to be.
I can't imagine that any pitcher good enough to be in relief at the major league level could be thought to be a fair exchange for Buchholz right now, who, as the last few posts highlight, can barely even get into games the Sox win by huge margins. He is a reliever, and one of the least trustworthy ones in baseball, but getting paid like a back-end/mid-tier starter. The only thing I can see a team trading for him is another bad contract. How much cash would the Sox have to send with him to interest another team even if they weren't getting a player back?
DD will definitely need to get creative with moving Buch but I still think a NL GM with a good pitching coach will believe they can fix him and make him a back of the rotation starter in a low stress environment.
Target a struggling bigger market team, one that would put some value on Clay's option. The Angels? Trade him plus cash for Joe Smith, who's been less effective and hurt this year. He's getting $5M+ and is an impending FA. But he'd be a more useful BP arm for the Sox than CB is. I think DD can find a deal like that out there...
The Sox would have to send most of his 2016 salary, I imagine. He has a manageable team option in a year when people are suggesting that if the option isn't picked up, he might be the best FA SP option.
And look through the list: Brett Anderson? Pretty good, but he's having back surgery to repair a bulging disc. Andrew Cashner? ERA and FIP both 4.79 in San Diego. Rich (old as the) Hill(s)? Is 37. Bartolo Colon? Is even older. Jared Weaver might throw harder than I do. Mat Latos has a sub-5 K/9. Jake Peavy is very, very old, and has had an up and down season. You could imagine Ivan Nova getting a big deal, even though his rate stats look worse to me than Buchholz'.
From the list, Maybe Cashner and 42-year-old-saying-he'll-probably-retire R.A. Dickey are better FA options than Buchholz. Maybe.
In this climate, Buchholz' option has value to a team that can give him starts, ideally in a big ballpark, and see if he can get his act back together. Buchholz at 32 seems like a better bet to bounce back than some of the mid 30s guys. How much value? I guess we'll see what Dombrowski can get.
I realize there's no "hiding" Clay's struggles or tricking someone into seeing something that isn't really there, but - and maybe this is just the BB Paradigm in me - why does Farrell have to so clearly say - so publicly - how profoundly de-valued Buchholz is in his view? I know, I know - other teams know, but it can't help uptick the odds the Red Sox might get ANYTHING for the guy when his own manager is speaking so negatively about the pitcher and his role. How is that helping ANYTHING? What's the pay-off?
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I dont see how Farrell's words have any impact because, as you say, everybody *does* know. On consecutive nights, with 3 top relievers out, he wouldn't bring him into a clean 5th or 6th inning ahead 8-5. And would brining him in the 9th ahead 13-2. Is there really anything he could say that wouldn't just be laugh-out-loud bullshit? Given his track record, I suspect Farrell had a conversation (or 5) with Buchholz where he told him essentially the same thing.
Clay's option might not really be much at this point, but the Red Sox could definitely extract something of value if they pay down his 2016 contract (which is a sunk cost at this point). Buchholz has really only been awful for ~80 innings this year and appears to be healthy (at least going by FB velo). Someone will take a chance and stick him in the back of their rotation and toss the Red Sox a bone.
Potential playoff teams like TEX (Holland/Perez), BAL (Gallardo/Jimenez), MIA (Koehler), SF (Cain/Peavy), KC (Young) are still running out >5.00 xFIP guys right now. My guess is Buchholz is a better lottery ticket than a few of them. Worse case scenario he's roughly their equal, but I assume some NL team would gladly send DD a mid-level prospect to see if the stuff plays up outside the AL East.
Potential playoff teams like TEX (Holland/Perez), BAL (Gallardo/Jimenez), MIA (Koehler), SF (Cain/Peavy), KC (Young) are still running out >5.00 xFIP guys right now. My guess is Buchholz is a better lottery ticket than a few of them. Worse case scenario he's roughly their equal, but I assume some NL team would gladly send DD a mid-level prospect to see if the stuff plays up outside the AL East.
Eh, I think anyone who's interested is interested to see if they can get him back to being the guy who didn't give up 2 HR/9. They can see that everything about his stat line is awful. His walks are way up, his strikeouts are way down, his hits allowed are weirdly steady, and his HR rate is literally more than double his career norms.
Guys get fixed. James Shields, whom we were all laughing at a few weeks ago, has put up a 2.10 ERA since he faced us a month ago, including an 8 IP, 1 ER performance against Anaheim. Someone will believe that the talent's in there.
Of course, no team is picking up Clay without the RS paying 90% of his contract. However, it would seem to me that if/when the RS pay the price that some out of contention team would be willing to throw the RS a viable bp arm (certainly not an 8th/9th inning guy) who is in the last year of a contract. At that point , the trade partner has upside if they can fix Clay or he finds it again and would lose only a draft pick.
So, it's been a while for
People freaking about the purgatory mention by Farrell do know that it can be a temporary "holding" place for one on the way to heaven, right? Or, sure, one can go the other way (purgatory to somewhere south). So Farrell probably meant Clay's in some kind of in between status and could go either way. I do admit that Farrell's not using him leans toward the going south option.
If teams are only offering a bag of balls in trade for a highly subsidized Clay, DD should just keep him. After he looked good yesterday, maybe he's earned a modicum of trust for Farrell to use him in slightly higher leverage situations. It wasn't that long ago that Clay was a really good pitcher, and more injuries to the Sox may happen. I wouldn't be in a rush to trade him. And if his value is really very low, then he's certainly a post non-waiver deadline trade candidate.
Smith for Buchholz makes some sense for both teams. Buchholz is owed around $6 million for the rest of this season, while Smith is owed about $2 million. The Angels would get a couple months to try to get Buchholz fixed, see if the change of scenery, ballpark and pitching coach can get him right. If he looks good, they could have odd-numbered-year Buchholz next year on a one-year deal. If they don't like what they see this year, they can just walk away. If they traded them even up, it would cost the Angels around $4 million or so for that Buchholz audition, which is more than they would probably like to pay. So if Boston kicked in a million or 2, it might be a good gamble for them.
Smith hasn't been very good this year, but he has been a very solid reliever for years. He would basically just be a middle reliever here, but if he could be solid for a month until Kimbrel and/or Koji gets back, that would be a huge boost.
You can earn your way out of purgatory, although you have to atone for your sins while there. Limbo is permanent, although not so nasty. So out of the two I guess Clay would want to be in purgatory. Hopefully this includes Farrell locking him in a sauna after games and jabbing him with a fork.
At least we can be supremely confident that Buchholz understands the subtle difference between purgatory and limbo, lest he stop trying.
Purgatory also seems a bit closer than Limbo:
http://travelingluck.com/North America/United States/Maine/_4976139_Purgatory.html
http://where-is.biz/index.php?qcountry_code=SE&qregion_code=10&qcity=Limbo
Purgatory also seems a bit closer than Limbo:
http://travelingluck.com/North America/United States/Maine/_4976139_Purgatory.html
http://where-is.biz/index.php?qcountry_code=SE&qregion_code=10&qcity=Limbo
So, purgatory would be like Oakland, from where you can be traded; while limbo would be ... Tampa Bay?
I was using "looked good" in regards to hitting 95 with the fastball, and having a sharp breaking ball. We'd all feel better if he set down the middle of Blue Jays lineup, but the Sox didn't play the Jays yesterday. Anyway, I can't figure out what you mean by "I'm not a big fan of this game".
If the Sox are going to trade Buchholz, they could also consider a one-tool guy like Emilio Bonifacio, currently toiling away in AAA, but rostered by the Braves. At the very least he could be used as a pinch runner and backup utility guy down the stretch.
Buchholz is back again today and with the recent success out of the pen, I am hopeful. Despite his well documented struggles, this start and the next 6 to hopefully 9 weeks will likely determine if Clay's option is picked up.
