Are You Worried About the Red Sox in the Playoffs?

The Talented Allen Ripley

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Of course you are, you're a Red Sox fan.

Sale is a question mark, Price seems to be cooling down from his hot streak, the bullpen's a mess, we have 3 catchers and none of them can hit, and my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Mookie pass out at 31 Flavors last night.
 

Ale Xander

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Sale's injury and the rest of the pitching scares me. The hitting doesn't, and the 3 catchers even don't.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I've already written off Sale, honestly. (I don't mean I think it's impossible that he'll be Chris M&#$@ing Sale in the playoffs, I'm just saying I'm not gonna count on it.) To me, everything depends on Price and Porcello. If they come up big, we can beat anybody. If not, we may be out in the first round once again.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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The good news - this offense is pretty great, even with the catching black hole

The bad news - Sale appears to have not recovered from his injury, Price has cooled off and never does well in the playoffs, Porcello is either really good or just horrific and these guys will be matching up with some really good SP in the playoffs

The really bad news - the bullpen, including Kimbrel are about as unreliable as can be. Of course all bullpens tend to be unreliable but there really is not a guy in the pen that I feel confident about when they come in to the game. Recency bias I am sure, but it seems like every guy out of the pen walks at least 2 before they even consider getting an out.
 

Wake49

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Like I mentioned in another thread, I feel less confident about this team than I did the three previous championship teams.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Things I am worried about (in order):

1. Bullpen
2. Starting pitching
3. Catcher and first base offense
4. Injuries
5. Dumb baserunning

Things I am not that worried about:

1. Defense
2. The manager doing something inexplicable
3. Offense

Honestly, I have no clue about this Red Sox team. Even though they've had the best season any Red Sox team has ever had and have been an absolute joy to watch, they could either flame out in three straight or they could win the World Series. Nothing that this team does would shock me. But if I'm being honest, I feel that way about every single Red Sox team come playoff time (except maybe the 2007 team -- they were really awesome).
 

bosockboy

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My 3 most important things:

*Price/Porcello
*7th/8th inning relief
*Offense 5-7 spots in order

They are capable of hitting their way to a ring if those spots turn the lineup over more.
 

TheoShmeo

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Things I am worried about (in order):

1. Bullpen
2. Starting pitching
3. Catcher and first base offense
4. Injuries
5. Dumb baserunning

Things I am not that worried about:

1. Defense
2. The manager doing something inexplicable
3. Offense

Honestly, I have no clue about this Red Sox team. Even though they've had the best season any Red Sox team has ever had and have been an absolute joy to watch, they could either flame out in three straight or they could win the World Series. Nothing that this team does would shock me. But if I'm being honest, I feel that way about every single Red Sox team come playoff time (except maybe the 2007 team -- they were really awesome).
I would switch the order of your first two worries. As much as the pen is the popular and understandable whipping boy, I think that Cora has enough options between relievers and starters to make it work. I have high hopes for ERod and Wright, and think that Brasier, Workman, Barnes, other starters at times and Kimbrel can do enough.

One thing that each of the Sox WS winners this century (damn it’s fun to write that) has in common is the presence of at least one dominant starter. You kind of need that to get through the three series, each against a very good team, I think.

I’m not sure they will get that this year. Sale is a question mark. Price looked shaky yesterday in the second against the minor leaguers from Fenway South and, sorry but it’s true, has been spotty at best as a starter in the playoffs and hideous at almost all times against his team’s biggest rival. He clearly has the stuff to be dominant in October but even his biggest fans have to wonder what we’ll get. Porcello has been mediocre for weeks. Evoldi has had two good starts, to be sure, but we’ve seen two good starts get followed by shit stew. So who knows what he’ll do with an October start.

My point is not that they are doomed. Far from it. But to me, the combo platter of the importance of having dominant October starters in general and just the fact that you need to get some length out of them in order to avoid cooking your pen, no matter how good it is, says to me that what they will do is the biggest worry and focal point.

Though...Kimbrel’s Walk rate belongs on every list of worries. Throw strikes!!
 

Pandemonium67

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Others have outlined my fears pretty well, and I concur that a first-round flameout and World Series championship are both in play. Both AL series are potentially brutal, and the Sox seem to blow hot and cold, depending on the starting pitching and the O. (I suppose all teams blow hot and cold, but the 2018 Sox seem especially to do so.)

The Sox are like the Pats. If they're going to win, it's because the O lights it up (which they are fully capable of doing). That also means the bullpen needs to hold down, or at least slow down, the opposition. To strangle the analogy further, I think the bullpen is like the Pats' 3rd-down defense. I don't particularly like watching either of them and don't feel overly optimistic of their chances, but I'm always hopeful they'll rise up and get it down.
 

JimD

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I believe the Red Sox can and should win the Division Series regardless of opponent - a third straight first-round exit will be a massive disappointment even with all of the question marks noted above.

I'm going into this tournament with the mindset that Houston is the favorite to win the AL pennant. If the Red Sox reach the ALCS and put up a good fight, I'll be disappointed but not surprised. If Chris Sale can get most of the way back to being an ace and Price can put up solid outings, I like our chances to prevail over the Astros but frankly any win over Houston will feel like a mild upset.
 

barbed wire Bob

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Things I am worried about (in order):

1. Bullpen
2. Starting pitching
3. Catcher and first base offense
4. Injuries
5. Dumb baserunning

Things I am not that worried about:

1. Defense
2. The manager doing something inexplicable
3. Offense

Honestly, I have no clue about this Red Sox team. Even though they've had the best season any Red Sox team has ever had and have been an absolute joy to watch, they could either flame out in three straight or they could win the World Series. Nothing that this team does would shock me. But if I'm being honest, I feel that way about every single Red Sox team come playoff time (except maybe the 2007 team -- they were really awesome).
I agree with everything you wrote in the last paragraph except for the bit about the 2007 team. I still remember the Cleveland series and the fact they were down 3-1 and had to win three straight games. Do you remember who was the starter in game 7?
 

geoduck no quahog

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Let's be realistic. Cleveland and Houston starters are from another planet. It's not always true that starting pitching wins the series (or that great regular season starters are great post-season starters), but it certainly has a heavily weighted impact. The Red Sox will end up playing against one of the two best bullpens (OAK and NYY). This is some heavy stuff to overcome in a couple of short series, when the winner of the Red Sox ALDS faces either CLE or HOU.

But this is a great team and great teams rise to the occasion.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I agree with everything you wrote in the last paragraph except for the bit about the 2007 team. I still remember the Cleveland series and the fact they were down 3-1 and had to win three straight games. Do you remember who was the starter in game 7?
I meant that was my thoughts going into the playoffs. When they were down 3-1 to the Indians, I thought that they were sunk. I never should think that about a Francona-led Sox team.

Edit: I just checked out the box score of this game and Ortiz was 0-5. What a choke artist.

I would switch the order of your first two worries. As much as the pen is the popular and understandable whipping boy, I think that Cora has enough options between relievers and starters to make it work. I have high hopes for ERod and Wright, and think that Brasier, Workman, Barnes, other starters at times and Kimbrel can do enough.
You have convinced me. Consider my starter worry level upped and my reliever worry level lowered.
 

joe dokes

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I agree with everything you wrote in the last paragraph except for the bit about the 2007 team. I still remember the Cleveland series and the fact they were down 3-1 and had to win three straight games. Do you remember who was the starter in game 7?
I was there. Dice-K. And Coco in the triangle to end it. A Cleveland baserunning blunder. A blowout on the scoreboard that wasn't a blowout at all.

I've never been anything less that a worry-level 5 at the beginning of a series.
 

RedOctober3829

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I've said for going on a month now that there is not much separating the Red Sox from the 4 other playoff teams. If Sale doesn't regain his form and if Price's playoff ineffectiveness pops up again, they will not win a round. If they both pitch to their capabilities, they can go far. If they face the Astros in the ALCS, it's a coin flip. As stated above, they are good enough to win a World Series and look dominant doing it or can lose in the first round. Their issues combined with the talent level of the other 4 teams makes it for a difficult road.
 

Sampo Gida

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Of course, playoffs are always worrisome

Red Sox haven't been much better than 500 against AL playoff teams

Havent been much above 500 against everyone since mid August

Sale, Porcello and the bullpen have not been what you want of late

JDM, Benintendi, XB, Moreland/Pearce and Kinsler have neen off, especially in the power department unless that 19-3 game against a AAA team meant anything

Of course, the Yankees have similar concerns if you look past Cash gifting them a couple of games with their worst BP crew. At least we dont have a WC game to contend with and have HFA

Playoffs are a roll of the dice even when you have a lot of momentum heading into them. In 2007 and 2013 we played the last couple of weeks at a 500 pace. Momentum is overrated. Need to be healthy though so knock on wood about Sale and hope nobody gets hurt against the dirty MFY in the final 3 games
 

InstaFace

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I agree with everything you wrote in the last paragraph except for the bit about the 2007 team. I still remember the Cleveland series and the fact they were down 3-1 and had to win three straight games. Do you remember who was the starter in game 7?
At the time I remember that feeling like more of a fluke than a "holy shit maybe we're not the best team after all" feeling. The minute JD Drew hit that grand slam, I got irrationally confident about how the rest of the playoffs would go.

This year, I don't have a lot of angst about it. If we're bounced, especially by the Astros, I'll be sad but I won't be shocked or feel betrayed or anything. Baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. As long as we aren't playing the Yankees, I don't think I'll be "worried" about anything, I'll just be trying to enjoy the moment. I mean, it's SUCH a fun goddamn team to watch. They're never out of a game, they come back after you like Freddie Krueger, and with few exceptions they give you professional, grind-it-out ABs even if it's the 9th inning of a 5-run game.

Let's put it this way, I wouldn't trade our position going in for that of any team in baseball. The Astros first have to face down the Fightin' Titos, and if they survive, then have to come to Boston and give up HFA.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Red Sox' big 3 of Sale, Price and Porcello have nowhere to go but up in the postseason. They are a combined 0-11 with a 6.18 ERA as postseason starters. Eovaldi, the likely Game 4 starter, has never pitched in the playoffs.
 

BaseballJones

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The Red Sox' big 3 of Sale, Price and Porcello have nowhere to go but up in the postseason. They are a combined 0-11 with a 6.18 ERA as postseason starters. Eovaldi, the likely Game 4 starter, has never pitched in the playoffs.
You'd like to think. But of course they could pitch worse. Much worse.
 

streeter88

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The Red Sox' big 3 of Sale, Price and Porcello have nowhere to go but up in the postseason. They are a combined 0-11 with a 6.18 ERA as postseason starters. Eovaldi, the likely Game 4 starter, has never pitched in the playoffs.
That is absolutely appalling. And as others have said, I am most frightened about the bullpen, but not by much after seeing this post.

I remember being absolutely terrified of the Tigers SP in 2013, and then the Big Papi vs Benoit AB happened with all the theatre in the world. After that I was convinced they would win it all.

I wonder whether that sort of moment will happen in the ALCS vs. Houston / Cleveland? And if it does, who will it be and will they be able to step up?

Edit: not to jinx the ALDS, but after the recent run of ALDS losses, I really really hope this year's team can get past it.
 

BroodsSexton

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My 3 most important things:

*Price/Porcello
*7th/8th inning relief
*Offense 5-7 spots in order

They are capable of hitting their way to a ring if those spots turn the lineup over more.
I don’t think we want Price/Porcello turning the lineup over more.
 

joe dokes

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That is absolutely appalling. And as others have said, I am most frightened about the bullpen, but not by much after seeing this post.

I remember being absolutely terrified of the Tigers SP in 2013, and then the Big Papi vs Benoit AB happened with all the theatre in the world. After that I was convinced they would win it all.

I wonder whether that sort of moment will happen in the ALCS vs. Houston / Cleveland? And if it does, who will it be and will they be able to step up?

Edit: not to jinx the ALDS, but after the recent run of ALDS losses, I really really hope this year's team can get past it.
You mean you didn't know until this post that those 3 have had little or no starting playoff success? That's been the drumbeat of drumbeaters all season.
 

streeter88

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You mean you didn't know until this post that those 3 have had little or no starting playoff success? That's been the drumbeat of drumbeaters all season.
I absolutely did know; I just didn't know it was quite that bad.

Was beating the drum on Price as a complete loss as an SP in the postseason last year as well. And had not forgotten how poorly Sale pitched last year vs Cleveland, who have long had his number.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Extremely worried. Bullpen is easily the worst out of all the AL playoff teams. Sale didn't look good the other night and Price hasn't had the best history in the playoffs. Porcello hasn't been much better. But the offense still might be able to carry this team. However next year they really need to switch the philosophy on how to build a bullpen. Just because someone throws hard doesn't mean that they are particularly good options in the 7th or 8th innings. The way the pen has been built its almost a must to pay Kimbrel whatever he wants in the offseason so we don't have to endure Barnes as the closer.

But the offense is incredible. If there was a team to defy all logic in regards to the usual blueprint of Pitching wins titles its this one.
 

j44thor

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Can we just have Steven Wright pitch every inning?

If you take out the 10 runs he gave up in one start before going on the DL he has allowed 5 ER, 1HR in 49 IP.
How he isn't being considered to start is a bit befuddling. Then again perhaps the plan is to have Sale/Price/Porcello give you everything he has for 2-3IP and follow up with Wright.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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That is absolutely appalling. And as others have said, I am most frightened about the bullpen, but not by much after seeing this post.
These are small samples, particularly for Sale. Price has 9 starts/17 appearances/73 IP over 8 seasons/10 series. Porcello has much less than that, and Sale has, well, last year. 3.8%, 1.3%, and 0.7%, respectively, of their career innings have come in postseason play. Looking at such a small, scattered sample of people's work and drawing conclusions from it is cherry-picking.

They are the pitchers they are -- Price and Porcello capable of dominating, but prone to inconsistency; Sale unhittable when healthy but...not healthy. We should expect their postseason performance to resemble some portion of their in-season performance; we just don't know which portion yet, and I think it's useless to seek an answer to that question in tiny bits of their past work just because those bits happened to fall at the same time of year as the games we're about to play.
 
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Monbo Jumbo

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Can we just have Steven Wright pitch every inning?

If you take out the 10 runs he gave up in one start before going on the DL he has allowed 5 ER, 1HR in 49 IP.
How he isn't being considered to start is a bit befuddling. Then again perhaps the plan is to have Sale/Price/Porcello give you everything he has for 2-3IP and follow up with Wright.
He should start.

His ability to go deep into a game as a starter means he is still helping the bullpen even when he's not in it!!

His numbers when healthy and not-raining are siick, siick, siick, as noted above.

He will give up that one plus WHIP, which tells you using him with men on base out of the bullpen remains a crapshoot and not necessarily the most effective use of his strengths.

He has TWO strengths - he can mow down batters AND he can eat innings. If you aren't exploiting both of those strengths, you are wasting him.
 

joe dokes

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Can we just have Steven Wright pitch every inning?

If you take out the 10 runs he gave up in one start before going on the DL he has allowed 5 ER, 1HR in 49 IP.
How he isn't being considered to start is a bit befuddling. Then again perhaps the plan is to have Sale/Price/Porcello give you everything he has for 2-3IP and follow up with Wright.
Wright said when he went on the DL that his knee gave him trouble starting not relieving. That probably helps explain it.
 

streeter88

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Ok, fair. But Savin, can I infer from your post that you're worried too?

And I have to admit that your points about Price's and Porcello's lack of consistency and Sale's lack of health, all of which I have also seen, crystallise my worries perfectly.

The postseason can often turn on who gets hot, as someone said above whether a dominant starter or two emerges, and whether a couple of key relievers step up. I am just not confident that any of our top 3 starters will be that guy. Maybe Edro or Eovaldi might have success out of the pen, or one of them might reprise the Buchholz role?
 

TheoShmeo

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Well, if your team is going into the playoffs and you're not worried, you should be checked for a pulse. I'm just saying these pitchers' past postseason records shouldn't add materially to our worries.
I get the sample sime point. And the reference to their overall numbers.

But with Price, I will still worry, and worry a lot. Here’s a guy with great talent and with the record he has in the playoffs as a starter and against NY. And he’s also very aware of all of that is likely to put a lot of pressure on himself heading into his first playoff start.

I can think of no Boston athlete ever with his level of damning contrast between general regular season performance, on the one hand, and playoff and biggest rival performance, on the other.

The Yankees element increases the sample size and suggests that there’s something more than happenstance going on here.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He should start.

His ability to go deep into a game as a starter means he is still helping the bullpen even when he's not in it!!

His numbers when healthy and not-raining are siick, siick, siick, as noted above.

He will give up that one plus WHIP, which tells you using him with men on base out of the bullpen remains a crapshoot and not necessarily the most effective use of his strengths.

He has TWO strengths - he can mow down batters AND he can eat innings. If you aren't exploiting both of those strengths, you are wasting him.
What indication do we have that Wright can eat innings or go deep into a game? Yes he was a successful starter in the past. Yes he was a successful starter for a three-game stretch this year. But those starts led to a DL stint and since returning, his longest outing topped out at 3 innings and 38 pitches. He's in no position to start at the moment and it would seem that that is because of concerns about his knee.
 

tims4wins

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Havent been much above 500 against everyone since mid August
Sorry I have to call this out. The Sox woke up with an 88-36 record on August 19 (high water mark for the season to that point). Since then they are 19-14 even though they have played 6 games since they clinched (3-3 since). 19-14 is a 93 win pace. Prior to Wednesday it was 19-13 which is a 96 win pace. If you take away the 3-3 since they clinched, it becomes a 16-11 record, which is also a 96 win pace. I mean... when that's your worst stretch, that's amazing.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I have as much confidence in the Red Sox going all the way as I do for the Yankees, A's, Indians and Astros. Maybe a little more. Don't discount the fact that this team scores runs in a variety of ways (versus, for example, waiting for pop-ups to right field) and is constantly putting pressure on the the other team's defense, whether successful or not. Line drives, speed on the base paths, home runs, great defense (if Devers is OK) - particularly on the right side of the infield and the entire outfield. Good catchers that control the running game well. A backup catcher that can also be a pinch runner (!). Home field advantage throughout.

Every team has flaws, but I have to think - going in, that the Red Sox and Astros are the favorites. Not a bad place to be.

Meanwhile, let's assume the Yankees beat the A's in the toilet. That's Tanaka on Wednesday. Friday at Fenway (barring rainouts) would be Sale vs Happ (right?). Price /Severino on Saturday. Porcello / Tanaka in Yankee Stadium on Monday and Eovaldi (Sale if elimination?) vs Sabathia (or Happ on short rest if it's their elimination game). It would be odd two have two RHP's start the NYC games, but that's probably the deal, yes? (Think about it, 2 righties in Fenway and 2 lefties in Yankee Stadium...but I guess the Yankee RHH's make that moot).

If I'm correct, that finds Thursday's home elimination game as Sale or Price versus Tanaka.

Does that sound right...
 

pk1627

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2004 - Thought they were the best team in baseball. Still worried. Schilling got severely injured, Pedro had a nagging injury, and they went down 0-3 with Mariano on the mound. Won 8 in a row.

2007 - Thought they were the best team in baseball. Still worried. Schilling was clearly hurt, Daisuke was Daisuke and Oki's arm almost fell off. Pedroia played with a broken hamate. Down 1-3 with Sabbathia on the mound. Won 7 in a row.

2013 - Felt the Sox had some holes at 3rd, catcher defense and the setup role. Felt Tampa, Oakland and Detroit might be better. Definitely worried. Ellsbury completely banged up. Buchholz injured. Ellsbury hit a double play ball in Game 6 to Iglesias. Farrell went all Jimy on us in the WS. Were 2-2 with StL with Wainwright pitching game 5. Wow. I saw it before in both 2004 and 2007, but the team that wins a WS has to have that something special because adversity will definitely come.

2018 - Feel we are the best team in baseball. Still worried. Feel it is certainly possible that some players have physical issues, as this happens every damn post-season. Think it'll be a great roller-coaster ride, and the team has the ability, confidence and manager to pull it off.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Not worried.

Does not mean the possibility they lose does not exist. The AL is really good overall and baseball is a tough game.

But worried? As the best team in baseball in the #1 seed with this offense and SP? If I went in worried, I'd be the worst and most illogical fucking fan on the planet. They're great, enjoy the ride.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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'13 teams best pitchers were Lester, who was always prone to inconsistency, and Horseface... who was one of the worst pitchers in the league two years earlier and barely at all the prior season. I'll take Sale and Price as they are today over Lester and Lackey 9 times out of 10
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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It is the playoffs, so there is always reason to worry - or at least for me. Even if Sale were 100%, and came out last start throwing 99-100, I would still worry because all of the AL playoff teams can hit and have dangerous lineups.

For me, this is more of a whether to panic or not scenario. If Sale comes out throwing 88-92 Friday night, it may be time to panic. If he looks right, then I will merely be my normal level of playoff nervous.

That being said, this offense is pretty great, and they don't have to win 2-1 games necessarily. IF Sale isn't 100%, he can still be effective. Will he be effective enough for the Sox to outscore their opponent? Who knows. Will Price ever perform well as a starter in the postseason? I don't know, but I've spent my requisite 'way too much money on stubhub for mediocre infield grandstand seats', to find out!
 

RIrooter09

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We had exactly two reliable SP's in 2013. Peavy got shelled two out of three starts, and Buchholz was pitching through injury. I'll take this year's staff over them easily.
 

j44thor

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Wright said when he went on the DL that his knee gave him trouble starting not relieving. That probably helps explain it.
Thanks, didn't know that.
Does make sense then. Still expect him to lead the staff in post-season innings pitched.
 

The Filthy One

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I'm not feeling super confident, but remember that last year, Sale and Pomeranz both got shelled in games 1 and 2 at Houston, Fister lasted 1.1 innings in game 3, Porcello went 3.2 IP in game 4, and the Sox still almost forced a game 5.

Games 1 and 2 being at home this year is a big, big help. Even if we get disaster starts from Sale and Price, the offense should give them a chance to survive.
 

lapa

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Not worried.

Does not mean the possibility they lose does not exist. The AL is really good overall and baseball is a tough game.

But worried? As the best team in baseball in the #1 seed with this offense and SP? If I went in worried, I'd be the worst and most illogical fucking fan on the planet. They're great, enjoy the ride.
I’m with you.
On the other hand it’s not illogical or even unfair to say that success brings its own pressure, see eg the patriots almost perfect season. By any measure we’ve had the best regular season ever but then the ‘worry’ becomes related to the all too natural tendency to think the 12,5% odds (taking all 8 proper playoff teams equally) has gone not to say 20 or 25 but 80 or 90%
It would actually be pretty weird if many fans didn’t start to feel an expectation that anything less than WS win is a letdown , hence ‘worried’
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Thanks, didn't know that.
Does make sense then. Still expect him to lead the staff in post-season innings pitched.
I assume you mean leading the bullpen in post-season IP, because if a reliever is leading the whole team in post-season IP, then that team is likely making a quick exit from the post-season.

Unless we're talking 2016 Indians pitching, where only Kluber pitched more post-season innings than Andrew Miller. Strikes me as more of a fluke than a good way to operate.
 

Al Zarilla

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San Andreas Fault
'13 teams best pitchers were Lester, who was always prone to inconsistency, and Horseface... who was one of the worst pitchers in the league two years earlier and barely at all the prior season. I'll take Sale and Price as they are today over Lester and Lackey 9 times out of 10
Lester was inconsistent? Up until 2013 postseason: 100-56, 117 ERA+, 8.1 K/9. Post season overall: 2.55 ERA, 1.027 WHIP. Give me three of these “inconsistent” pitchers all day long.
 
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