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ALCS 2018 - Houston Astros

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by DeadlySplitter, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    213
    I wish Al Michaels would do baseball again. He was very good with ABC back in the day and I don't like him doing football as much. I'd take Sean McDonough also.
     
  2. LogansDad

    LogansDad Member SoSH Member

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    15,582
    This series is going to be a bloodbath. The Astros are really, really good. The Red Sox are really, really good, and have home field advantage.

    I keep telling myself that the Sox/Patriots/Bruins have won enough that at this point I should just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Unfortunately, I'm not very convincing.

    I think the Sox win in 7 with each team taking one game on the road.
     
  3. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    4,101
    Man, do I hope you're right. I have tickets to game 7.
     
  4. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    Just chiming in here in support of Price. He needs to start Game Two, and for all the reasons based in facts... not armchair psychology.
    Basing this on facts might even suggest he should be our Game One starter.
    I'd also lean towards Rodriguez being Game Four starter... considering the weakness of our pen, I think you have to balance which of Eovaldi vs Rodriguez will be the better starter against Eovaldi vs Rodriguez as the better bullpen option. I'm not sure I can make an argument for or against either as a better starter (staying away from recent game bias) but I can definitely make an argument that Eovaldi is a better relief pitcher. And having him available most every game for an inning as a relief ace gives me much more confidence than Rodriguez as a "relief ace".

    I woke up this morning with much more confidence in the Red Sox winning this series than I did yesterday... but yeah. Houston is a much tougher and smarter opponent than the Yankees but I think this year Cora will figure out how to beat them. I'm actually confident that we have a manager that will make all the right decisions on everything. And not to game thread here... but F the MF'ing Astros!
     
  5. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    7,913
    That's my concern with starting him in game 2. If they win game 1 it's not as much of an issue, but down 1-0, that start is immense and the scenario you describe is in play.
     
  6. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    18,936
    I feel similar about Price, although I wouldn't start him game 1 for the simple reason that if Sale pitches games 1 and 5, he could come back and give you something out of the pen in a game 7.
     
  7. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

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    3,807
    The Sox are going to need Price if they want to win a WS. I like the idea of starting him Game 2, and if he is horrible again, maybe at that point you move him to the pen where he excelled last year vs Houston.

    I am fairly confident about the Sox chances in the ALCS, or as confident as you can be when facing the defending champs who also won 100+ games.
     
  8. AutomatedTeller

    AutomatedTeller lurker

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    15
    I think it's going to be a heck of a series.
     
  9. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I am fine with Price starting game 2, but i want Evoldi ready at a moment's notice (which means warming up before trouble starts) to come in and face a RHH lineup as soon as there is any trouble
     
  10. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    34,005
    Price has had a decent amount of success against Houston the past 2 seasons. After thinking about it overnight, Price at Fenway is a better idea because as short of a porch LF is in Fenway it is even shorter in MMP.

    2018: 2 starts, 12.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 17 K
    2017 incl. playoffs: 3 appearances, 7.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
     
  11. ricopetro6

    ricopetro6 lurker

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    1,051
    I think many here are underestimating Price's psychology and melting under pressure. 10 play-off starts, 0-9, 6.03 ERA. As Eck would say..yuck!!
    Why would anyone want to give this guy 2 starts in this series? Consistent play off failure as a starter far outweighs regular season success against Houston...IMO. Who pitches game 6 if Price blows in game 2?
     
  12. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe we're underestimating it because it's bull shit?

    2013. Game 163 to determine the second wildcard spot. Do or die game on the road. David Price pitched a complete game, seven hit, two walk, two run gem to get the Rays into the wildcard game. Is that not pressure? Is that not essentially a playoff game (though it will never appear in post-season stats)? If David Price is a delicate flower that can't handle the pressure, shouldn't he have melted that day too? And he's been fine as a reliever in the post-season. Why doesn't the pressure get to him then?

    A random selection of 10 starts spread out over 10 years doesn't really speak all that much about the quality of pitcher he is or his psychological makeup. I'm fine giving him two starts in the ALCS because he is undoubtedly the second best starting pitcher on the Red Sox roster.
     
  13. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    You have a point. The MLB rules requiring the manager to announce his Game 6 starter before Game 1 and mandating that the guy who pitches Game 2 MUST pitch Game 6 really hamstrings the manager. OTOH--Cora has shown himself so incapable of adjusting on the fly that it might be better this way.
     
  14. PaulinMyrBch

    PaulinMyrBch Don't touch his dog food Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  15. ricopetro6

    ricopetro6 lurker

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    1,051
    10 starts in the play-offs with a 6.03 era is pathetic...but hey, if you want to add in 1 pressure game that he performed well in..great.
    Just doesn't make sense to start a guy with such a dismal track record 2 times in this series when you have 2 other guys that have pitch well recently. Cora is sticking with his guy, hopefully it doesn't cost them the series.
     
  16. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I'm gonna add that these are his playoff starts that any of us at this point would probably consider to be very solid:

    2010 vs Tex: 6.0 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 6 k (lost 5-1)
    2011 vs Tex: 6.2 ip, 7 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 3 k (lost 4-3)
    2014 vs Bal: 8.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 6 k (lost 2-1)
    2015 vs KC: 6.2 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 8 k (lost 4-3)

    In these four games, he went: 27.1 ip, 25 h, 11 r, 11 er, 4 bb, 23 k, 3.62 era, 1.06 whip, 7.6 k/9.

    And he also had a game in 2015 (game 1 vs KC) where he pitched six shutout innings, and was brought out in the 7th (which was fine) with a 3-0 lead but then allowed two straight hits to start the inning. At that point, he should have been removed. But they left him in for FOUR more batters, and it ended up being a five-run inning. The runs all count because they did score, but he pitched a much better game there than the stats would indicate.

    So it's not like he's incapable of having a good postseason start. In those four games above, his team scored a total of 8 runs. If he put up ANY of those lines in game 2, we'd all be thrilled with that performance.
     
  17. ricopetro6

    ricopetro6 lurker

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    smug response, but not an answer. Who do YOU think would start? Eovaldi on 3 days rest? Erod? Probably not...most likely it would be Price again.
     
  18. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

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    I think a case could be made to give Porcello Game 2, but while Eovaldi dominated the Yanks, he is not a better pitcher than Price. Price is without a doubt (like it or not) the second best SP on this staff. Worst case scenario, he comes out flat, and gives up 2-3 runs in an inning or two again and he is pulled. He is not going to be left out there to put the game out of reach.
     
  19. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    10 starts with a 6.03 ERA can happen to a good pitcher who has a couple bad outings mixed in. Remove his worst outing (2013 against the Red Sox) and his ERA drops to 5.63. It's a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. To treat it like it's indicative of what he kind of pitcher he is or predictive in any way is asinine.
     
  20. geoduck no quahog

    geoduck no quahog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    9,970
    A couple of TV thoughts.

    MLB is so scared of the NFL that they can't play at least one Sunday as a day game (in October, New England) and let kids watch? I get prime time during the week, but at least some championship baseball is meant to be played in sunshine.

    Well...TBS - be thankful it's not ESPN. At least we'll be able to watch a baseball game while it's being played.

    On another note: Price.

    What does that say about Red Sox fans that smart people are actually talking about him getting booed off the field...so he's better off pitching in Houston. WTF is the point of booing your own team anyway? Make you feel better?
     
  21. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,252
    We should probably start a new Price thread. He's fascinating.

    On the one hand, he was a borderline ace this season: about the 30th best pitcher in baseball, so a #1 on a team with a bad pitching staff or a #2 on a team with a very good one, which is where he finds himself. He posted a 3.58 ERA in 30 starts, which feels like it misrepresents things in both directions. On the one hand, he had a long run of 20 or so starts between mid May and mid September with positively sparkling numbers, in which the team went 17-3. That performance was a big contribution to our eventual edge on the Yankees for the division, especially with Sale on the shelf. But on the other hand, that ERA is half a run under his FIP, which represents pretty clearly how his transition to Wily Veteran is going. His current repertoire is a kind of sampler plate of different fastballs, offset mostly by a changeup (and a curveball he throws about five times per game). When it works — and it works a lot! — he's alternating the cutter and the two seamer either on or just off the outside corner, and keeping hitters honest with the change, which produces a lot of whiffs. But when it doesn't work, when he misses location over the heart of the plate, he doesn't have much margin for error. This is how you get his peripherals: K/9 over 9 — good! BB/9 around 2.5 — excellent! H/9 under 8 — very nice! HR/9 approaching 1.3 — here's where I wish the board would let me use the grimacing emoji.

    He's not exactly a soft tosser, but his four-seamer used to average 96 and now it averages 93 and change. As long as his mistake pitches are solo shots, he should do well, and his low walk rate, high popup rate, and tons of medium-contact-quality grounders and fly balls do help him keep people off the bases. But when he gets hit hard, he gets hit hard. We all know this; we saw it just the other day.

    So what is fascinating, then, is the we're at an inflection point with him because of the opt-out, where the near term story and long term story intersect. The media and fans seem to hate him, although I'd be interested to see a survey of people here, because that perception may just be skewed by some vocal haters. He says he's staying — he came here to win, and we're winning. But it's of course possible that he's not being 100% sincere about that. If he struggles and we lose, he might think he'd be happier someplace where the press wasn't so belligerent; if we win it all, he might think that he came here to get a ring, he has one, and now he can move on. (There are a whole range of other options too, obvs.)

    If he stays, we owe him 4/$127. It's hard to imagine him getting much more than that following last off-season, although we don't really know yet what that means. The Dodgers, Yankees, Braves are among win-now type teams who will or should be looking for FA pitching. (The A's should be, but likely won't.) Maybe the Nats or Cardinals. If Price opts out, the Red Sox will likely be in the market for another high-end starter. On the supply side, CLAYTON MF-ing KERSHAW (if he opts out of his remaining 2/$65) tops a list of high-end starters that also includes Patrick Corbin, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel, and J.A. Happ. Drew Pomeranz' and Matt Harvey's implosions and Garrett Richards TJ surgery reduced what once appeared likely to be a historic glut.

    So I think if he's sick of what he's had to deal with in Boston, and why wouldn't he be, I could picture him thinking that taking a similar deal to what he has left from us to pitch in — let's say — Atlanta would be more appealing. While I like Price — I tend to like whomever WEEI is mad at — he's definitely expensive. I would be pretty pleased if he opts out and we can give, say, 3/$60m to Charlie Morton and reallocate the rest towards the rest of the team.
     
  22. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,536
    If David Price is a choke artist that wilts in the playoffs, its pretty weird that he was by far our best pitcher in the playoffs last year.

    Btw, Chris Sale's career playoff ERA is worse than Price's.

    You go with your best pitchers and you don't get caught up in reading bullshit narratives into tiny samples.
     
  23. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,252
    I also feel like something that's left out of this discussion is how many of these postseason performances came after he led or very nearly led the league in IP.

    In particular, the narrative that "Price can't pitch in the postseason" seemed to coalesce in 2015, when he wasn't great for Toronto. That postseason came after he had thrown 220.1 IP in the regular season following a *previous season* where he threw 248.1 IP, before losing to the Orioles in an 8 inning, 2 ER gem.

    He threw more than 500 IP for three clubs in a two season span, and people were shocked that he wasn't at his best in October?
     
  24. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    11,268
    Why wouldn't it be ERod under your scenario? Or do you think you know Cora so well that you're certain that if Price gets rocked in Game 2 that he would use him again in Game 6? Why do you assume that? More "psychology"? Or is just the usual assumption that the manager will do something you think is stupid.

    Or put another way.....if Price contracts Ebola after Game 2, who do YOU think starts this hypothetical Game 6?
     
  25. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

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    6,374
    MLB is in a no-win situation on Sundays since they are going up against the NFL all day. Since the schedules are set so far in advance, it's possible that they were hoping that the Yankees would go through and give them a chance to steal eyeballs from Sunday Night Football.
     
  26. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    It is pathetic. It's also meaningless. Baseball is littered with good players who started out poorly in post season play but ended up where you'd expect.

    How about 5.85 after 10 postseason starts (Andy Pettitte). And he's the first guy I looked at. Career 3.85/Postseason 3.81.
     
  27. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    13,997
    umpires. they will rotate up one slot (and HP to RF) each game.

    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
  28. CantKeepmedown

    CantKeepmedown Member SoSH Member

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    Guccione is a name I recognize, and I don't think it's a good thing. Joe West too.
     
  29. ObstructedView

    ObstructedView Member SoSH Member

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    One thing I've noticed is that he has this thing where he begins a sentence and then struggles to complete it - as if he just starts talking for the sake of saying something and doesn't really know where it's going. Or maybe he gets distracted or just freezes. Either way, not a good feature in his line of work - and though I actually like Darling overall, he's not the type of color guy who's going to jump in and carry a broadcast. I want Eck!
     
  30. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You know his father (is that his father?)
     
  31. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    I dont think ump is related to that Guccione.

    But I think *this* Guccione is the guy who threw david wells out of a game when he was umping 2B and wells was muttering under his breath about a pitch called (of course) by the HP ump.
     
  32. CantKeepmedown

    CantKeepmedown Member SoSH Member

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    For some reason I thought the Sox had some history with Guccione but a quick google search is not bringing up anything at first glance. Probably just paranoia by me.
     
  33. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    It was Guccione.
    http://archive.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/07/16/wells_hit_with_suspension/

     
  34. EdRalphRomero

    EdRalphRomero wooderson SoSH Member

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    "Cora said if make a roster change it would be to add a pitcher. Moreland status still uncertain."
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Hoye in game 1: Ks at 106% average, walks at 107%
     
  36. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    This...maybe not a bad thing. Pearce has looked great at first and can actually hit.
     
  37. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    How the hell did joe west get a postseason assignment?
     
  38. EdRalphRomero

    EdRalphRomero wooderson SoSH Member

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    Yeah I like the idea of Pearce as the full-time 1B as his numbers even against righties have been better than Moreland for the last few months (and rumors are, he can stretch for a ball on a close play). And I guess this makes Holt the primary back-up at 1b. But I don't like removing a potential pinch-hitter for the catchers.
     
  39. TFisNEXT

    TFisNEXT Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Might be a bit more aggressive using Swihart if they trade Moreland's spot for a pitcher. Though, so far, Cora hasn't been aggressive pinch hitting anyway. You're still going to have two of Kinsler/Holt/Devers/Nunez on the bench in any given game which is probably enough if you include Swihart as a super utility fielder.
     
  40. ookami7m

    ookami7m Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Angel Hernandez asked to be left off after the replay abuse the other night.
     
  41. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Does Kelly make the ALCS roster? Probably yes, since he was good against the Yankees, but it's worth noting that he faced the Astros three times, twice getting completely shelled and once limiting the damage to one run. All three appearances came either right before or after good outings, so it's not like he was generally lost. It's more like he can't get outs against Houston. I don't think any other team got to him three times, including division rivals whom he faced 6 or 7 times. He's likely to get a spot but Cora will have to tread carefully there.
     
  42. MakeMineMoxie

    MakeMineMoxie Member SoSH Member

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    I for one am looking forward to an exciting, well played series between the 2 best teams in Baseball. I thought that '04, '07' and '13 had relaxed me but Sox - MFY is still a Holy War and I just don't need that stress.

    Sox in 6.
     
  43. geoduck no quahog

    geoduck no quahog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wouldn't be shocked to see Swihart left off the roster - assuming Moreland is going to be ok. (Are there no reports about his leg?)

    I'm basing this on needing an extra pitcher now that they're into 7-game series.
     
  44. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

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    3,807
    Probably meaningless but Verlander has pretty bad (for him) numbers pitching with Hoye behind the plate.
     
  45. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Kelly will definitely be on the roster.
     
  46. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Pearce has always been an OK 1B -- his advanced numbers there have ranged from fringe-average to excellent, depending on the metric and the year. I think there was a tendency to downplay his 1B defense because Moreland-glove-guy, Pearce-bat-guy was an easy narrative. But they're both two-way players--Moreland is a Gold Glove defender with a decent bat, and Pearce is a very good hitter with a decent glove.
     
  47. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    upload_2018-10-11_16-42-49.jpeg
     
  48. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    He'll be on the roster AND Cora will tread carefully. If the starters hold up their end, Barnes, Brasier and Kimbrel will get ridden hard. Extra hi-lev pitches might come from a starter who can "afford" to throw 15 pitches.

    Unless there's something particular about Houston's matchup, Cora is not going to make a decision based on 3 appearances. Nor should he.
     
  49. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If Cora is going to manage the ALCS the same way his did the ALDS, and
    If Moreland is okay, and
    If the Sox are going to keep another pitcher

    Swihart won't be active. And I think 1&3 are very likely. 2 is unknown.
     
  50. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I agree he'll be there, but there is something conspicuous about three bad outings in three tries. Maybe they caught him tipping his pitches?
     

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