2023-24 Celtics

tims4wins

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Tough West Coast swing coming up: GSW (12-14), SAC (15-9), LAC (15-10), LAL (15-11).

The Celtics are 14-0 at home but only 6-5 on the road. This will be an interesting test. I doubt they sweep this, or get swept, but anything from 3-1 to 1-3 seems possible.
So they played yesterday, obviously. The schedule for the 4 games is:
Tuesday 7pm PT / 10pm ET
Wednesday 7pm PT / 10pm ET
Sat 12:30pm PT (WTF?) / 3:30pm ET
Mon 2pm PT (Xmas) / 5pm ET

I'm going to say they go W-L-L-W.

Edit: fixed Tues and Weds tip times
 
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lovegtm

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So they played yesterday, obviously. The schedule for the 4 games is:
Tuesday 10pm PT
Wednesday 10pm PT
Sat 12:30pm PT (WTF?)
Mon 2pm PT (Xmas)

I'm going to say they go W-L-L-W.
The Sac game feels like a win to me. Cs have played well on B2Bs under Joe, and it's not a true road B2B: you just drive 1.5 hours up the road from SF.
 

tims4wins

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The Sac game feels like a win to me. Cs have played well on B2Bs under Joe, and it's not a true road B2B: you just drive 1.5 hours up the road from SF.
Good point.

Like EJ said, no individual or collective outcome would surprise me, outside of 4-0 or 0-4.
 

TomTerrific

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So they played yesterday, obviously. The schedule for the 4 games is:
Tuesday 10pm PT
Wednesday 10pm PT
Sat 12:30pm PT (WTF?)
Mon 2pm PT (Xmas)

I'm going to say they go W-L-L-W.
That sounds like a reasonable guess, and I would be OK with that depending on how it goes down.

BTW, pretty sure at least the Tuesday and Wednesday games are 10pm Eastern time not PT, Pacific Time. Either that or the NBA is trying to reach out to the all-important Alaska market.
 

tims4wins

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That sounds like a reasonable guess, and I would be OK with that depending on how it goes down.

BTW, pretty sure at least the Tuesday and Wednesday games are 10pm Eastern time not PT, Pacific Time. Either that or the NBA is trying to reach out to the all-important Alaska market.
Yeah my bad I mixed and matched. Will edit
 

Curtis Pride

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So they played yesterday, obviously. The schedule for the 4 games is:
Tuesday 10pm PT
Wednesday 10pm PT
Sat 12:30pm PT (WTF?)
Mon 2pm PT (Xmas)

I'm going to say they go W-L-L-W.
If you're using Pacific Time for these games, then the first two are at 7 PM, not 10 PM. Fans on the East Coast really need their sleep!
 

HomeRunBaker

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20-5 for an even .800 winning percentages!
And all of that against mostly quality opponents.

Just checked some strength of schedule calculations:
Tankathon: Celtics with the easiest remaining schedule.
Powerrankingsguru: 5th hardest played; easiest remaining
ESPN: Hardest schedule played so far.

And most of them have today's win not yet included.

Just as a reminder before they drop a game or two on the west coast... the C's are really good!
Tankathon: Celtics have easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Celtics: Board flight today for 4-game California trip with separate 5-game and 6-game trips ahead of them for a team that has been very ordinary on the road.

I do not understand but I'd be willing to listen.
 

lovegtm

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Tankathon: Celtics have easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Celtics: Board flight today for 4-game California trip with separate 5-game and 6-game trips ahead of them for a team that has been very ordinary on the road.

I do not understand but I'd be willing to listen.
Doesn't this just mean that the schedule after the Cali trip is very, very easy? (At least in terms of opposing team records.)

The Cs have really had a frontloaded schedule, relative to Philly and others.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Doesn't this just mean that the schedule after the Cali trip is very, very easy? (At least in terms of opposing team records.)

The Cs have really had a frontloaded schedule, relative to Philly and others.
Celtics just finished up an 8 out of 9 game homestretch. In the NBA's world of travel this is much easier than going from city to city in a condensed period of time. Philly's last 6 games have been....

Wizards twice
Pistons twice
Hornets
Hawks at home

I don't expect Boston to finish the year with 65-66 wins or the Sixers with 59 which is the pace each are on. I don't expect this bc I feel they have a more difficult stretch the rest of the way....especially Boston's. I wish I could "alert" this post to see how each ends up in mid-April.
 

tims4wins

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Pretty sure the answer is that tankathon is simply taking the current winning % of each remaining team, and not weighing for home/road.

Does that type of analysis exist? I'd be curious to see it. I agree with HRB that their remaining schedule is tougher than it looks based purely on winning %.
 

lovegtm

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Celtics just finished up an 8 out of 9 game homestretch. In the NBA's world of travel this is much easier than going from city to city in a condensed period of time. Philly's last 6 games have been....

Wizards twice
Pistons twice
Hornets
Hawks at home

I don't expect Boston to finish the year with 65-66 wins or the Sixers with 59 which is the pace each are on. I don't expect this bc I feel they have a more difficult stretch the rest of the way....especially Boston's. I wish I could "alert" this post to see how each ends up in mid-April.
You're making way more out of my comment than I meant by it. I simply meant that they're about to play 4 games on the road against teams with a combined 57-44 record, and so, after that, the schedule is even easier on a pure winning % basis.

I agree that 5 and 6 game road trips after that will be tough.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You're making way more out of my comment than I meant by it. I simply meant that they're about to play 4 games on the road against teams with a combined 57-44 record, and so, after that, the schedule is even easier on a pure winning % basis.

I agree that 5 and 6 game road trips after that will be tough.
I know but winning % is a terrible way to judge schedule strength and is very misleading. I was referring more to ESPN and Tankathon's rankings fwiw. I would be interested to know their methodology but can pretty clearly see that it didn't take critical factors in their calculations.
 

lexrageorge

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Celtics just finished up an 8 out of 9 game homestretch. In the NBA's world of travel this is much easier than going from city to city in a condensed period of time. Philly's last 6 games have been....

Wizards twice
Pistons twice
Hornets
Hawks at home

I don't expect Boston to finish the year with 65-66 wins or the Sixers with 59 which is the pace each are on. I don't expect this bc I feel they have a more difficult stretch the rest of the way....especially Boston's. I wish I could "alert" this post to see how each ends up in mid-April.
They call the period from Boxing Day to the All Star break the dog days of the NBA schedule for a reason. But the Celtics are definitely a better road team than their 6-5 record indicates. The 5 losses have included losses in Minnesota, Philly and Orlando who have combined to go 32-5 at home; being trounced by Indy in a game that Porzingis missed and in which the Pacers benefited mightily from shot luck; and a truly fluke OT loss in Charlotte. And all but the Hornets are playoff teams. They've also won games in Philly, Toronto, New York and Brooklyn.

Coming up, while their future opponents' record is among the weakest in the league, that is a bit of a tricky stat with teams having only played 25 or so games. Two west/mountain time zone trips, back-to-back road games against the pesky Pacers; 3 games against Giannis, including 2 on the road; and two more trips to Miami. However, the Sixers and Bucks have their own schedule challenges coming up as well, so I don't expect any significant impact to the conference standings.
 

TripleOT

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This year’s team seems to grasp that there are certain mental challenges that they have to meet to become a champion. One of those is to go on a road trip like the California trip and do well. The last Celtic title team famously went through the Texas triangle and got all victories. Hopefully this team will take it as a challenge to sweep California
 

SteveF

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The Celtics have played more rest advantaged games than disadvantaged thus far. That has made the schedule easier than it would appear by opponent net rating/srs. I think that flips the other way with the calendar. Opponents are worse by net rating, but there are some games that might be harder than you'd expect. March 12th in Utah -- end of long road trip, rest disadvantage, 2nd half of road back to back -- stands out as an example.
 

RorschachsMask

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This stuff is the sign of incredibly deep, and balanced team. And we know Tatum can, and often has outplayed any other superstar in a playoff series. That’s a recipe for winning a title. These will also show how Joe has kind of cracked the rotation, which most of us guessed the wrong lineup combos lol. We all assumed holiday would be paired with Jaylen, and White with Tatum, but it’s been White/Jaylen/KP, and Tatum/Holiday.

Jaylen on, Tatum off: +8.3, 85th percentile
Tatum on, Jaylen off: +14.5, 96th percentile

Jaylen on, KP off: -0.3, 44th percentile
Tatum on, KP off: +8.4, 85th percentile

Jaylen on, White off: -8.0, 21st percentile
Tatum on, White off: +0.7, 51st percentile

Jaylen on, Holiday off: +6.5, 80th percentile
Tatum on, Holiday off: +6.8, 81st percentile

Jaylen on, Horford off: +11.3, 91st percentile
Tatum on, Horford off: +11.6, 94th percentile

Jaylen, KP, White on, Tatum off: +15.3, 97th percentile

Tatum/holiday on, Jaylen/White/KP off: +19.9, 99th percentile

Tatum on, Holiday/KP/Jaylen off: +24.6, 100th percentile.

Tatum/Pritchard/Kornet on: +23.4, and it jumps to +25.9 with Hauser, but it’s less than 100 possessions.

Some of these are relatively short sample, but there is a pretty clear trend emerging. They’ve figured out how to balance the rotation. Jaylen with two or three other starters, and Tatum with another starter and bench guys, or just Tatum and 4 bench guys. Doesn’t matter which, we dominate all of them. Unless White is sitting, in which case we suck again
 
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Euclis20

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The teams that seem to have benefited most from the schedule so far are Milwaukee and Phoenix. No one really notices because both teams are expected to be great. The Bucks are 19-7 which is the 3rd best record in the league but they're 6th in point differential, they've played the second easiest schedule in the league by opponent win %, and they've had the most beneficial home/away schedule thus far. The Suns have been more middle of the road at 14-12, but they've benefited from the easiest schedule in the league by opponent win % and they've played the second most home games after Milwaukee. They've got an injury excuse, although it doesn't appear to be getting better for them in that regard.
 

lovegtm

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This stuff is the sign of incredibly deep, and balanced team. And we know Tatum can, and often has outplayed any other superstar in a playoff series. That’s a recipe for winning a title. These will also show how Joe has kind of cracked the rotation, which most of us guessed the wrong lineup combos lol. We all assumed holiday would be paired with Jaylen, and White with Tatum, but it’s been White/Jaylen/KP, and Tatum/Holiday.

Jaylen on, Tatum off: +8.3, 85th percentile
Tatum on, Jaylen off: +14.5, 96th percentile

Jaylen on, KP off: -0.3, 44th percentile
Tatum on, KP off: 8.4, 85th percentile

Jaylen on, White off: -8.0, 21st percentile
Tatum on, White off: +0.7, 51st percentile

Jaylen on, Holiday off: +6.5, 80th percentile
Tatum on, Holiday off: +6.8, 81st percentile

Jaylen on, Horford off: +11.3, 91st percentile
Tatum on, Horford off: +11.6, 94th percentile

Jaylen, KP, White on, Tatum off: +15.3, 97th percentile

Tatum/holiday on, Jaylen/White/KP off: +19.9, 99th percentile

Tatum on, Holiday/KP/Jaylen off: +24.6, 100th percentile.

Tatum/Pritchard/Kornet on: +23.4, and it jumps to +25.9 with Hauser, but it’s less than 100 possessions.

Some of these are relatively short sample, but there is a pretty clear trend emerging. They’ve figured out how to balance the rotation. Jaylen with two or three other starters, and Tatum with another starter and bench guys, or just Tatum and 4 bench guys. Doesn’t matter which, we dominate all of them. Unless White is sitting, in which case we suck again
Winning the Jaylen/no Tatum minutes that decisively validates everything Brad and Joe have done. (and Jaylen too lol)
 

HomeRunBaker

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The teams that seem to have benefited most from the schedule so far are Milwaukee and Phoenix. No one really notices because both teams are expected to be great. The Bucks are 19-7 which is the 3rd best record in the league but they're 6th in point differential, they've played the second easiest schedule in the league by opponent win %, and they've had the most beneficial home/away schedule thus far. The Suns have been more middle of the road at 14-12, but they've benefited from the easiest schedule in the league by opponent win % and they've played the second most home games after Milwaukee. They've got an injury excuse, although it doesn't appear to be getting better for them in that regard.
Phoenix has a stretch at the end of March where they play 9 of 11 on the road in 21 days. East swing with a trip home for a quick B2B, then back on the road for 5 more. That's about as brutal as one can get.

Milwaukee begins a 8 game trip (with one at home in the middle) next week covering 14 days....then a couple more difficult trips following that. As @SteveF mentioned above it are these road games in a condensed periof of time where the strength of schedule based on win% can be misleading. These trips are brutal.
 

benhogan

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Doesn’t matter which, we dominate all of them. Unless White is sitting, in which case we suck again
Thanks for the work above.

Derrick White is the tide that raises all the boats.

More pairings/rotational numbers (SSS aside)

Pairing DW & KP with Jaylen Brown has always made the most intuitive sense and in 367 minutes the three of them:
Off Rtg 122.6
Def Rtg 104.1
Net Rtg +18.5

Further proof. The Celtics 3rd most played (11 gm-57 mins) 5-man lineup is Tatum, Holiday, Horford, Hauser, PP
Off Rtg 132.4
Def Rtg 98.2
Net Rtg +34.2

Finally, KP & Horford have played 188 minutes together
Off Rtg 111.1
Def Rtg 108.4
Net Rtg +2.8

CJM has his rotation blueprint in front of him.
Hopefully, we start seeing less double BIGZ.
 
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benhogan

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Phoenix has a stretch at the end of March where they play 9 of 11 on the road in 21 days. East swing with a trip home for a quick B2B, then back on the road for 5 more. That's about as brutal as one can get.

Milwaukee begins a 8 game trip (with one at home in the middle) next week covering 14 days....then a couple more difficult trips following that. As @SteveF mentioned above it are these road games in a condensed periof of time where the strength of schedule based on win% can be misleading. These trips are brutal.
What is PHX deal? every time I watch they look out of sorts and rely way too much on Nurkic! (who has been decent)

is their bench that big of a disaster?

Bradley Beal isn't fixing whatever ails them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What is PHX deal? every time I watch they look out of sorts and rely way too much on Nurkic!

Bradley Beal isn't fixing whatever ails them.
Beal has played 6 games, all on minutes restrictions split up with 3-4 weeks off in between due to his back recurrence, with the final one lasting 4 and a half minutes before his bad ankle turn. I don't believe any of those games came with both Durant and Booker in the lineup. The three of them with Nurkic and Grayson Allen are an elite starting unit.

They'll have a chance to figure it all out once they get these three on the floor together but when one is out they are more reliant on a pretty terrible group of role players compared to many of the top contenders. Eric Gordon and Josh Okogie are playing major minutes and prominent roles....that is not good for a team who wants to compete for a Title and the bench behind them is inexperienced in playing parts of a winning NBA role. Jordan Goodwin, Kates-Diop, Watanbe, Little and Eubanks are getting way too many minutes and much of them on the floor with others from that group. I know everyone is tired of me talking about them but compare this group to the Clippers with Norman Powell, Westbrook (who is playing great in his role), and Theis or even the Celtics with Horford and Hauser....and right on down the list of the top teams. This is what is holding the Suns back when not at full strength and what will likely hold them back some even when they are but at least they will have a chance of removing a bunch of those inexperienced and subpar minutes.
 

benhogan

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Keith Smith and Trevor Lane discussed the Celtics "aggressively" seeking bench help on the trade market on today's pod. In short, its a nothingburger though Smith made the obvious point that a big, wing or combo thereof is probably the best fit. He did note their financial constraints limits them to marginal moves at best. My guess is that they are shopping in the Tate or Burks markets if either becomes available but even at their relatively cheap price points, the C's are going to have to be creative to get something done without gutting their bench.

Absent some sort of out of left field deal, this roster seems pretty set.
 

benhogan

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Lowe threw out Thybulle, as a potential target. BUT I'm not excited about moving PP as his 3pt shooting heats up.

I love myself a fake trade but this roster feels pretty settled, with 1-14 understanding their roles.

The NBA media would be better off dissecting other rosters.
 

Auger34

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I know this runs counter to the “Tatum is everything for the Celtics” narrative that is on here a lot but a stat I just heard from Zach Lowe

Since the Hornets game tehe Celtics are +19 per 100 possessions with Tatum off the floor
 

RorschachsMask

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I know this runs counter to the “Tatum is everything for the Celtics” narrative that is on here a lot but a stat I just heard from Zach Lowe

Since the Hornets game tehe Celtics are +19 per 100 possessions with Tatum off the floor
It’s not really a narrative to be fair, the numbers have shown it for years. This year, the team is stacked, so even when Tatum sits, they still kick ass.
 

Auger34

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It’s not really a narrative to be fair, the numbers have shown it for years. This year, the team is stacked, so even when Tatum sits, they still kick ass.
Correct, which has been my point all year this year. Lost in all of the talk about who is the 2nd or 3rd or 7th most valuable on the team is that this team is good enough to withstand any of these guys missing a chunk of games in the regular season.

In the playoffs, the Celtics can’t afford to miss any of their top 5
 

RorschachsMask

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Correct, which has been my point all year this year. Lost in all of the talk about who is the 2nd or 3rd or 7th most valuable on the team is that this team is good enough to withstand any of these guys missing a chunk of games in the regular season.

In the playoffs, the Celtics can’t afford to miss any of their top 5
I posted the numbers on here yesterday, their net rating numbers are amazing almost across the board. There’s very few “breaks” for the other team, the Celtics just keep coming at you in waves.

Obviously Tatum is the guy they most can’t afford to lose, but they’d be okay without him for a stretch in the regular season.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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DLEBRON is kind of interesting. Harden is more highly rated than Tatum which is possible given that the Beard isn't being tasked with defending the same types of players that JT routinely covers. It just feels icky and odd.
 

RorschachsMask

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DLEBRON is kind of interesting. Harden is more highly rated than Tatum which is possible given that the Beard isn't being tasked with defending the same types of players that Tatum routinely covers. It just feels icky and odd.
Harden’s defense has been awesome since he’s gotten to LA. Not hyperbole either, he’s been kicking ass on both ends.

But, I still don’t trust defensive advanced stats nearly as much as offensive.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Harden’s defense has been awesome since he’s gotten to LA. Not hyperbole either, he’s been kicking ass on both ends.

But, I still don’t trust defensive advanced stats nearly as much as offensive.
Harden has been a fantastic addition to that club and as was noted in the other thread, he is eating given the Clips opponents terrible choices about whom to guard. And the defense thing isn't completely surprising - we have seen him play D before for stretches (though don't blink!).

I would just expect Tatum to be higher than him given all the parameters used to measure defense but it says they are roughly the same this season. Its also a relatively small sample and as you note, its a defensive metric so...
 

benhogan

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I know this runs counter to the “Tatum is everything for the Celtics” narrative that is on here a lot but a stat I just heard from Zach Lowe

Since the Hornets game tehe Celtics are +19 per 100 possessions with Tatum off the floor
CJM has found some nice combos with Jaylen to lean into his strengths (attacking the rim/alpha scorer).
JB + KP + White is excellent.

Jaylen is also playing the best defense of his career

367 minutes of Brown + KP + White:
Off Rtg 122.6
Def Rtg 104.1
Net Rtg +18.5
 

benhogan

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Harden has been a fantastic addition to that club and as was noted in the other thread, he is eating given the Clips opponents terrible choices about whom to guard. And the defense thing isn't completely surprising - we have seen him play D before for stretches (though don't blink!).

I would just expect Tatum to be higher than him given all the parameters used to measure defense but it says they are roughly the same this season. Its also a relatively small sample and as you note, its a defensive metric so...
Harden's defense will last the season.

Contract Year James has his sights set on the MSFT chart...
Ballmer is probably $50B richer this year
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Lowe threw out Thybulle, as a potential target. BUT I'm not excited about moving PP as his 3pt shooting heats up.

I love myself a fake trade but this roster feels pretty settled, with 1-14 understanding their roles.

The NBA media would be better off dissecting other rosters.
Lowe (and Bontemps) also threw out John Konchar as someone who has some versatility, is on a reasonable contract, shouldn't cost a ton, and can hit a shot.

Bontemps also mentioned that in the last 7 years, the Cs have played more playoff games without winning the championship than any other team in NBA history. Assume it's accurate.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lowe threw out Thybulle, as a potential target. BUT I'm not excited about moving PP as his 3pt shooting heats up.

I love myself a fake trade but this roster feels pretty settled, with 1-14 understanding their roles.

The NBA media would be better off dissecting other rosters.
I don't think this roster is settled at all past 1-7. Everything 8-15 is in play imo and at least one piece will be added but likely two imo. There is no reason for us to enter the playoffs with Pritchard, Kornet/Queta, or Brissett/Stevens/Banton one injury away from playing major minutes....and two injuries away from two of them doing so. We are too close to not be better prepared.