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2018 MLB Draft Uber-Thread

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Cuzittt, May 31, 2018.

  1. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Honest answer - beats me. Probably more organizational memory remains from the Basabe era than the Reddick era.

    But just as honestly, if you add the injured Westmoreland and Kalish to the guys I mentioned and our current home grown outfield, the track record is pretty astonishing. You could even go back to Ellsbury, Murphy, and Moss. That's an awfully high hit rate: something like 8 ML-caliber OF, plus two more who would have been without tragic career ending injuries, plus Basabe — who looks very promising, but on whom the jury is still out — over the 16 years since 2002.

    It's not as though there weren't high-profile misses to go along with the success: Matt Murton never amounted to much with the Cubs, nor Reymond Fuentes, nor Jason Place. Bryce Brentz, more recently. All were first rounders who didn't pan out. Still, we're turning draft capital and signing bonuses into major league outfield talent at a remarkable clip, and it's not just a product of a few outliers.

    I posted above about the Giants' drought of homegrown All Star outfielders since Chili Davis in the early 80s. The Sox over the span discussed above have drafted and developed All Star outfielders in Moss, Ellsbury, Betts, and Bradley just since 2002. That's a lot.
     
  2. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Not disputing their hit rate, it’s been above average, but what you spoke to in your original post - that they targeted athletic CF types - doesn’t really jive with what you’re following up with, to start.

    The Moss, Place, Brentz subset were power corner guys and drafted as such. Betts was drafted as a 2B. (I while I understand it’s accurate, I find citing Bradley and Amos’s as All Stars to be a bit disingenuous, but that’s a tangent).

    That’s all kind of beside the point and kind of not - under Theo and his extension into BC’s tenure, it was a stated and noted strategy to focus on up the middle players, as they could fall back on moving to a corner position if they didn’t hit their ceiling; further that those positions were most valuable and hardest to find for impact.

    Not only has the entire front office changed, but their philosophies went with them and even on top of that, the game has changed. It’s a nice peg to hang their hat on but I’m not sure it means much at this point. It was a pretty clean break with the previous regime and I don’t find it particularly instructive I guess, much like citing the Giants and OFs.

    Pointing to franchises and specific positions, or even subsets like OF, strikes me as cherry picking coincidences, with the longer you stretch it out, the thinner the case gets. Giants fans may bemoan not developing an OF since Davis strikes me as odd, since there’s been how many GM and ownership changes since then? It’s like saying ‘the Twins always lay down for the Yankees’ or ‘the Sox always have trouble with the Orioles’ or whatever; it’s static. I guess I only find it useful when there’s continuity, so unless Henry is the one driving the train, I’m not seeing its relevance. All I meant.
     
  3. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    It could be. These are small samples, so a handful of hits or misses can skew your whole picture. I see that. And part of this is certainly a perspective shaped by the immediate aftermath of the Ball and Benintendi picks: major failure on the pitcher, major hit on an athletic CF type.

    But the overall draft hit rate is so low that this still seems high enough to register as more. Similarly, the Giants OF woes (which may well end with Gorkys!) seem like a pretty eyebrow raising outlier. I didn't take the Sox all the way back to 1981, because I was not sufficiently familiar with their drafts, and it was more an impressionistic game-thready remark in a Draft thread than a research project.

    But the Red Sox set of draftees or international signees, among active players (can't lay my hands on the link for this one: it was a piece on Fangraphs), have produced the most WAR. That link is draft performance since 1953, and it isn't even all that close. That gives us credit for guys we trade or release, too: so Lester's WAR with the A's or Cubs counts for us, as does Clemens' WAR with the Jays, 'Stros, and Yanks.

    Betts was drafted as a SS, FWIW, and they've also been successful at producing IF and to some extent C over this span. So it may be that what we're looking at is a recent pitching deficit more than an OF strength.
     
  4. nayrbrey

    nayrbrey Member SoSH Member

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    Day 3 picks so far

    Rnd 11/340 Nick Northcut 3B William Mason HS. Ranked 81st in MLB.com. Could this be where extra slot money is used? Committed to Vanderbilt


    Rnd 12/370 Chase Shugart RHP Texas
    Rnd 13/400 Dylan Hardy OF U South Alabama

    Edit- had Northcut as P not 3B
     
    #154 nayrbrey, Jun 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
  5. nayrbrey

    nayrbrey Member SoSH Member

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    Write up on Northcut from Perfectgame.org

    https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=373923

    Latest Showcase Report

    2017 National Showcase Jun 16, 2017

    PG Grade: 10

    Nicholas Northcut is a 2018 3B/RHP with a 6-0 198 lb. frame from Mason, OH who attends William Mason HS. Strong athletic build, pretty mature physically, has firmed up his body over the years and improved his athleticism.. Right handed hitter, hits from a wide base with good balance and direction into contact, very strong swing with outstanding bat speed, has barrel whip, big lift and ability to drive the ball, made Fenway South look small with his raw power, can make game adjustments and drive the ball to all fields, advanced hitter. 7.25 runner, solid third base actions, feet work well laterally, big arm strength across the diamond. Two-way prospect on the mound, quick and compact arm action, works from the stretch, fastball to 91 mph with good life down in the zone. Tight slider with ability to manipulate the shape and velocity. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt. Selected for the 2017 Perfect Game All-American Classic.
     
  6. AusTexSoxFan

    AusTexSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I love Shugart. Have seen a lot of him down here at UT. Was at Sunday's game against Indiana when he came out of the bully to strike out the last two hitters. Kid is tough. I would think he'll start one of the super regional games against Tenn Tech.
     
  7. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    Hopefully this is a pre-arranged deal the FO was able to work out over the last few days. Probably will command most of the leftover pool money from going under rounds 4-10.

    Interesting that they’re going with another power prep bat. I wonder how much of this draft strategy was based on analytics - a good chunk of the exit velocity crowd was really into Casas if I remember correctly.
     
  8. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    No team’s drafted Luke Heimlich so far? Most reporters think he’ll be picked. How long before the MFY team him up with Aroldis in the bullpen?
     
  9. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

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    Almost certainly will be picked as a college senior. It's just not time for the manuever yet.
     
  10. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Per Ian at SoxProspects the Sox have taken only 2 SPs out of their first 18 picks in the draft, and 7 pitchers overall.
    There has been talk about the inability to develop starting pitchers around here and it looks like this year they have essentially punted on the position.
     
  11. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    All from MLB draft tracker on twitter:

    11 (340): @redsox select William Mason HS (OH) RHP Nicholas Northcut. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    12 (370): @redsox select Texas (TX) RHP Chase Shugart. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    13 (400): @redsox select University of South Alabama (AL) OF Dylan Hardy. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDrafM

    14 (430): @redsox select Cocalico HS 2B Nicholas Lucky. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    15 (460): @redsox select Seton Hall (NJ) RHP Andrew Politi. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    16 (490): @redsox select Kentucky (KY) RHP Christopher Machamer. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    17 (520): @redsox select Oklahoma City U C Lane Milligan. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    18 (550): @redsox select Southeastern U RHR Eddie Jimenez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    19 (580): @redsox select Texas St U 2B Jonathan Ortega. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    20 (610): @redsox select Liberty Christian School (TX) OF Kason Howell. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft
     
  12. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,015
    FYI, Gorkys will be 31 in September, was signed by the Tigers in 2006 as an IFA, was traded twice before he made the majors and is on his 6th different team. He's more of a patch job than a real solution.
     
  13. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon Well-Known Member Silver Supporter

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    I don't think Keith Law is all that pessimistic on Casas, despite the comment cited earlier in this thread - here's what he said later in the chat:

    Mat Ji: What I have read on Triston Casas indicates that he has an OK approach and a fair amount of raw power but has some holes in his swing. Assuming this is true, is this typically a fairly correctable issue?
    Keith Law: That’s not what I’ve seen at all. I think he can really hit, but the power projects to maybe 60, not 70-80.
     
  14. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    17,915
    That's so weird. How does "a fair amount of raw power" translate to "70-80"? 60 seems like exactly what that phrase would imply.
     
  15. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    21 (640): @redsox select George Jenkins HS (FL) 3B Brandon Howlett. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    22 (670): @redsox select Miami Dade CC South (FL) RHP Yusniel Padron-Artilles. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    23 (700): @redsox select Hillsborough CC (FL) RHP Ryan Fernandez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    24 (730): @redsox select Florida Southern College (FL) LHP Logan Browning. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    25 (760): @redsox select Heritage HS CF Caleb Ramsey. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    26 (790): @redsox select Fresno St U SS Korby Batesole. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft
     
  16. Rwillh11

    Rwillh11 lurker

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    9
    I'd take that as primarily responding to the "has some holes in his swing". He is saying that there aren't major holes in the swing - and also the the power is good but not outstanding.
     
  17. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    deleted
     
    #167 joe dokes, Jun 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
  18. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    And yet another thread has a political element/Trump criticism needlessly shoehorned into it.
     
    #168 moondog80, Jun 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
  19. strek1

    strek1 Member SoSH Member

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    20,774
    I can't find any retro data on Devers in the same way as Casas. Are the stats regarding power a recent development? It might be an interesting comparison.
     
  20. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

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    Crap. I was just making a crappy choking joke.

    I forgot all about that issue. So... Yeah, maybe never on the drafting aspect.
     
  21. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    deleted
     
    #171 joe dokes, Jun 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
  22. richgedman'sghost

    richgedman'sghost Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    @joeDokes why even bring it up? This is just a draft thread. No need for polluting it with politics.
     
  23. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Oregonian says "molested" a 6y.o. when he was 12. Gross. But not exactly the same as what you said.
     
  24. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    fair point. (un)done.
     
  25. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    i wonder if DD thinks position prospects are "safer" bets and more likley to become tradeable prospects, and he will just trade for pitching.
     
  26. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    I believe the abuse took place between when he was 14 and 16, not 12.
     
  27. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Sorry, yes, 2012, and he was a teenager.
     
  28. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    He went undrafted.
     
  29. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    27 (820): @redsox select No School LHS Gregorio Reyes. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    28 (850): @redsox select Corban Col RHS Kris Jackson. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    29 (880): @redsox select Penn Cambria HS (PA) LHP Mason Ronan. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    30 (910): @redsox select Troup County HS (GA) SS Ryan Bliss. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    31 (940): @redsox select U Oklahoma RHR Connor Berry. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    32 (970): @redsox select Miami Beach HS OF Bramdon Perez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    33 (1000): @redsox select Americas HS CF Adrian Torres. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    34 (1030): @redsox select Cathedral HS (IN) 2B Jared Poland. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    35 (1060): @redsox select Hickory Ridge HS (NC) C Jermiah Boyd. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    36 (1090): @redsox select Lake Oswego HS (OR) 3B Jake Dukart. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

    37 (1120): @redsox select Baylor (TX) SS Davis Wendzel. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    38 (1150): @redsox select Col of the Sequoias LHR Art Joven. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    39 (1180): @redsox select McNeese St U OF Shane Selman. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

    40 (1210): @redsox select LSU (LA) CF Zach Watson. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft
     
  30. Tyrone Biggums

    Tyrone Biggums nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion SoSH Member

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    Good. Child Molestors don’t deserve the privilege to play professional baseball.
     
  31. TeddyBallgame9

    TeddyBallgame9 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    15 (460): @redsox select Seton Hall (NJ) RHP Andrew Politi.

    Please tell me this guy’s nickname is “Scritti”.
     
  32. twosevenkid

    twosevenkid lurker

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  33. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Nick Northcut, Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year, told his father he wanted to be picked in the 2018 MLB draft when he was 9 years old. Though he didn't quite go as high as planned, his 11th-round selection by the Boston Red Sox is appealing enough he will bypass his college commitment to Vanderbilt.
    Link
     
  34. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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  35. deythur

    deythur Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    Great more base running mistakes coming to Fenway.

    In all seriousness, how many guys are using wooden bats these days? I don't follow much college ball outside of the World Series. I don't recall seeing anyone using a wooden bat. I always thought it would be a great way to prepare if you were on the MLB path. Cool to see someone actually do it.
     
  36. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Many summer leagues use wooden bats, I'd say most of the hitters that have been drafted have some wooden bat experience.
     
  37. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    Wait, they signed Northcut? That's awesome. He was 69 on BA's overall board. He's another guy like Casas and Decker with exceptional exit velocity. 97th percentile according to perfect game. They took a lot of safe college guys in the top 10 but the best reliever in college and 3 top 70 high school power hitters is a risky, but potentially very exciting haul.
     
  38. Drek717

    Drek717 Member SoSH Member

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    I don't know if they've signed him, but the article linked directly quotes him and references the Sox' intent to play him at 3B instead of pitch. It also has this quote from him:

    "I played in the Rivalry Classic in the fall," Northcut said. "I got to play in Fenway and Yankee Stadium. In Yankee Stadium I ended up hitting three home runs in one game, which is pretty special. I also got to play in Petco Park for the Perfect Game All-American Game."

    So at least he knows where we like to see our guys hit home runs.

    I suspect this is a case of the Sox having their entire top 10 already sorted bonus-wise, knew what Northcut needed to sign, and since A+B=C they can safely say he's getting the offer he wants.
     
  39. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    First Red Sox draft signing to report: 6th-rounder Devlin Granberg has signed, per source. Dallas Baptist OF is a senior sign. Bonus unknown at the moment.



    Red Sox have signed 9th-rounder Brian Brown and 10th-rounder Grant Williams. Both college seniors.
     
  40. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Multiple reports on twitter have the Sox singing their first round pick Triston Casas for a slot deal of just over $2.5M.
     
  41. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    From https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/06/2018_mlb_draft_boston_red_sox_triston_casas.html

    The Red Sox have agreed to terms with first-round pick Triston Casas, a source confirmed to MassLive on Sunday. Casas will receive a bonus of $2,552,800, which is slot value for the No. 26 overall pick, and will be in Boston on Monday to take a physical.

    Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston first reported the agreement.

    Casas, a corner infielder from American Heritage High School in Florida, was never considered a threat not to sign with the Sox. The 18-year-old has already made headlines in his first week as a member of the Red Sox organization, taking a dig at Pablo Sandoval on draft night and receiving high praise from Padres star first baseman Eric Hosmer.

    With Casas all but locked up, some updates on when the Sox' other top prospects are expected to sign:

    • Third-rounder Durbin Feltman, a righty from TCU, is flying to Boston on Sunday night and will take his physical with the club Monday. His bonus is unknown at this point.
    • Fourth-rounder Kole Cottam, a catcher from Kentucky, has agreed to a sign for $375k, according to a source. That comes in slightly under the slot value for pick No. 130 ($417,800), giving the Red Sox about $43k to save for an over-slot bonus elsewhere.
    • Fifth-round pick Thad Ward, a righty from Central Florida, was very close to signing with the club as of Friday, according to a source.
    • Three Red Sox picks have already signed: Sixth-rounder Devlin Granberg (bonus unknown), ninth-rounder Brian Brown (bonus unknown) and tenth-rounder Grant Williams (for $2,500). All three are college seniors, meaning all three deals will be significantly under slot.
    • Second-rounder Nick Decker, a New Jersey prep outfielder, seems to be line for an over-slot bonus. Eleventh-rounder Nick Northcut, who is reportedly flying to Boston this weekend, could be in the same boat.
     
  42. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    Late-round pick signing for Red Sox: 25th-rounder Caleb Ramsey, a Colorado prep outfielder, will sign for $125k plus scholarship money. Butler commit going pro, costs Sox $25k against bonus pool. @ColinHubbard22 1st.
     
  43. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

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    I don't know how the scholarship money counts (or doesn't) against the pool... But $125k is the max one can get without counting against the pool.

    (It used to be 100k, it was bumped up last year).
     
  44. ZMart100

    ZMart100 Member SoSH Member

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  45. cahlton

    cahlton Member SoSH Member

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    They weren't kidding about Granberg signing for significantly below slot. Sounds like he could be a real sleeper.

     
  46. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    $40k for a college senior is actually high, some of those guys sign for $5k or less. They have absolutely no leverage so they pretty much have to take whatever is offered.
     
  47. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, it's hard to watch some of these guys sign for $3k and then a high school kid drafted 10 rounds later gets $100k+. I think there should be a minimum slot bonus, as well. They're all kids realizing a dream of getting drafted, but I'm sure each one could find something to do with 10 or 20 thousand dollars.
     
  48. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...draft-picks/gFzia9S5LELNGSSoCkM2sI/story.html

    The Red Sox are expected to reach agreements with their first 11 picks in the draft, according to major league sources. Assuming that happens, those players would then be subject to standard physicals and drug tests before their agreements become official. Once that happens, the players would be able to start their pro careers with Red Sox affiliates.

    Also

    Third baseman Brandon Howlett, taken in the 21st round, is expected to reach agreement to turn pro. He is another prep player whose bat suggests considerable upside.
     
  49. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Feltman, the 3rd round college reliever, signed for slot($559k) and will report to Lowell.
    This is the guy that many say could be MLB ready this year.
     
  50. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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    Red Sox announced signings of 8 2018 draft picks, incl. first-rounder 3B Triston Casas. Others are RHPs Durban Feltman (3rd) & Andrew Politi (15th), LHP Brian Brown (9th), OF Devlin Granberg (6th), and 2Bs Jarren Duran (7th), Grant Williams (10th), & Jonathan Ortega (19th).
     

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