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2018-19 Offseason News, Rumors, Trades

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by SemperFidelisSox, Nov 1, 2018.

  1. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    That's just a semi-educated guess on CBS' part.
     
  2. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Correct, but it makes sense. I don't see Harper even considering something less than Stanton right now.
     
  3. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Can't see that. Robles would be a key cog in the OF, unless you believe Soto/Eaton/Taylor is going to cut it. They really don't need SP, at least front-line SPs, with Strasburg and Scherzer. Roark is okay, Fedde is an up and comer, Joe Ross is returning from injury. They should bottom feed for a couple of guys, get a 2B, upgrade the bullpen and call it good.
     
  4. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Jon Heyman says that every team except for one is interested in Marwin Gonzalez. Anyone care to guess who Marwin Gonzalez' agent is?
     
  5. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He's saying if they got Harper back and kept him in the OF, it would be Soto/Eaton/Harper.
     
  6. blueline

    blueline Member SoSH Member

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    For what it's worth--Eaton hasn't played CF since returning from his ACL tear in early 2017. The team doesn't seem to think he's a viable solution out there after his injuries. Harper ended up playing CF in over 60 games after Soto established himself and Eaton returned from some issues in April/May.

    If Harper stays I'm not sure where that will leave Eaton and Robles. They'll need an everyday CF (can't imagine Harper is a long term solution there) and also need to upgrade at catcher.
     
  7. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    yea the Eaton trade really is coming back to bite them, especiallyif any of the three guys they traded pan out. Lopez looks like he is at least a 3 or 4. They have gotten almost nothing from Eaton
     
  8. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    I assume this is just their recruitment pitch, but still:

     
  9. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Chicago will offer $400 million...spread out over 400 years.
     
  10. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    They need SP. You cannot count on Strasburgh to remain healthy — in fact, you can count on him to miss chunks of virtually every season. Roark did not have a good year. Ross has given them nothing, substantially because of injury.
     
  11. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Rosenthal: St Louis out on Harper.

    Nightingale: “Harper will sign with Phillies. You can bank on it.”
     
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I don't think anyone else is really in who is at least a semi-contender, I wonder how much Boras will get them to pay.
     
  13. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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    I'm guessing 10/370 with an opt out after the 3rd or 4th year.
     
  14. theapportioner

    theapportioner Member SoSH Member

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    How much more would the Nationals offer if Harper would otherwise go to a divisional rival, especially one in such close geographic proximity?
     
  15. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe another $10 MM, maybe they offer opt outs. But that’s probably it. They’ll let Philadelphia eat the contract.
     
  16. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Kris Bryant won the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, an MVP award the next season, and he will forever be remembered in Chicago for making the last play to clinch Game 7 of the Cubs' 2016 championship, grinning as he released the throw to first. At that time, it was easy to envision him spending his career with the franchise that had drafted him second overall in 2013.

    But it's possible that the Cubs will trade him, perhaps as soon as this winter. As part of their early offseason discussions, sources say, the Cubs have indicated to other teams they are willing to discuss trade proposals for almost all of the players on their roster, including Bryant, who struggled in 2018, batting .272 with 13 homers in 102 games. Bryant went on the disabled list twice with left shoulder trouble.

    Past efforts to reach a long-term agreement with Bryant have not advanced -- the Cubs made a significant offer last winter, without a deal being concluded -- and the third baseman, who turns 27 in January, is about to get much more expensive as he moves toward free-agency eligibility after the 2021 season.

    Theo Epstein, the head of baseball operations, was asked earlier this week at the GM meetings about the availability of Bryant and first baseman Anthony Rizzo in trades.

    "We've never operated with untouchables," he said. "It sends the wrong message. Given what we're trying to accomplish, it would be virtually impossible to envision the deal that would make sense to move them. I just don't believe in untouchables. Why limit yourself?"

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25226392/chicago-cubs-open-trading-3b-kris-bryant
     
  17. JohntheBaptist

    JohntheBaptist Member SoSH Member

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    I fully understand wanting to move on from the overrated wheel-spinning of Joe Maddon, but holding out for Joe Girardi is really odd to me. If true I guess that means the Cubs think the clubhouse needs a taskmaster? Still feels like an odd overall fit for that organization.

    Wonder if the Yankees would find Bryant more interesting than Machado? Might be a more awkward roster fit since he can't play SS like MM can.

    I'm surprised there isn't more on the Giants with Harper. I'm sure I heard somewhere they were really interested, maybe even prioritizing him, and now, nothing. Maybe they dipped their toes and felt he was too expensive/ not interested.
     
  18. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    Joe Mauer hanging them up after 15 years.

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25228494/joe-mauer-retire-15-seasons-minnesota-twins

    In a letter to Twin fans, Mauer writes:

    "After much consideration I have decided to retire from playing baseball," "The decision came down to my health and my family. The risk of concussion is always there, and I was reminded of that this season after missing over 30 games as a result of diving for a foul ball.
    "Thank you, Minnesota Twins, and thank you, fans, for making my career as special and memorable as it was. Because of you I can leave the game I love with a full and grateful heart."



    After his first 4-5 years he seemed a pretty decent bet for Cooperstown

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml

    But unfortunately a concussion changed his career and probably his travel plans, and may make for an interesting discussion in 4-5 years.

    I always liked Mauer, he was a helluva ballplayer, but the SOB could never beat the MFY.
     
    #68 bankshot1, Nov 10, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
  19. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I heard that about the Giants too, but I'm not sure if it was the Giants expressing interest , or some pundits predicting that SF would be a good landing spot for him.
     
  20. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

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    Utley retiring, too
     
  21. plucy

    plucy Member SoSH Member

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    Quintin Berry also.
    Brown-Eyed Handsome Man
     
    #71 plucy, Nov 10, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
  22. Ford Frick's Asterisk

    Ford Frick's Asterisk Member SoSH Member

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    I have nothing but respect and admiration for Mauer. If he could have stayed behind the plate, his raw numbers would be good enough to get into the Hall of Fame based on his peak (batting titles for catchers are pretty rare, and he's had more than any of them). The reality though is the rebuilding Twins no longer want him, and he has nothing to gain by having to compete for a lesser role for a year or two in another city.

    *
     
  23. JohntheBaptist

    JohntheBaptist Member SoSH Member

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    I think you're right. I ate it up like a sucker because it seemed like a decent fit, but then the Giants haven't really exploded with cash for anyone that I can recall since Zito and done pretty well by that. Wonder if dropping $370m is something the new guy wants to do right out of the gate, too.
     
  24. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The reality is that Mauer wanted to retire, to spend more time with his family, after the recurrence of concussion issues last season. The Twins certainly don't need him going forward, but this was hardly a callous act on their part.

    This is just the coda to something anyone who follows the team would have known during the final home game of their season, when he came out to catch for one final pitch, then waved farewell to the fans.
     
  25. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Is Boras floating the idea of Harper being open to a move to 1B just a way to keep the Yankees as an option? With them reupping Gardner they have no openings in the outfield at all. But they do need a 1Bman.

    He played CF this year for the Nats and wasn’t an embarrassment. There’s no doubt he can still be a very good RF.

    If he does go back to the Nats, they should look to trade Eaton and go with Robles or Taylor in CF. Don’t know if they’d get anything but salary relief, but he’s a bad fit and a mediocre hitter at this point.
     
  26. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    the Astros had a deal in place for Harper at the non-waiver deadline but WSH ownership overruled the FO

    https://theathletic.com/646072/2018...ce-harper-in-july-but-nats-ownership-said-no/
     
  27. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    1) Probably.
    2) NY certainly could still add an OF, Gardner is a 4th OF, Clint Frazier a question mark coming off a concussion, Ellsbury is a phantom, Stanton at DH. They likely won't and will use Stanton or Clint as the primary LF, but they could.
    3) They don't need a 1B really, Luke Voit led all of MLB in xwOBA once he got a chance, ahead of Mookie, Trout, JDM and everyone else. He probably won't repeat that but he has shown lots of signs of being legit over 2017-2018 (elite exit velocity in limited time in STL too), and they have Bird still too.

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=&min=150

    4) If Harper wasn't a defensive embarrassment this year, then no one was. His defensive stats in both CF and RF were horrendous, one of the few worst defensive players in all of MLB last year.
     
  28. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    The Defensive stats we see are like plus / minus ratings in hockey. Or RBI in baseball.

    I’d be interested to see what can be gleaned from stat cast in this new era, but dWAR and its ilk are context-dependent counting stats.
     
  29. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Too bad you're not a GM then, because you obviously know a lot more than anyone else.
     
  30. InsideTheParker

    InsideTheParker Member SoSH Member

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    This is not the first time I haven't known to whom you are replying. Am I the real Dope?
     
  31. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Here is something to chew on:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...ryce-harper-have-25-defensive-runs-saved/amp/

    If your point still holds, please consider eyewitness testimony from folks like me who find Harper riveting, will be sad to see him go* but also see the elephant in the living room — he doesn’t get to balls he once reached easily (wheels are going) and often throws to the wrong base.

    If that is not enough, consider logic: Scott Boras is not talking about 1st base on mlb radio if Harper is clean in the field. Sweet Jesus, Boras even brought up Harper’s history as a catcher — as if that were remotely possible in anything other than a break-the-glass emergency.

    *Unless, of course, the Lerners again pull rank on Rizzo and cannot abide Harper playing in Philadelphia.
     
  32. barbed wire Bob

    barbed wire Bob crippled by fear Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    He was replying to P91in post #78. but I agree with (I assume) your overall point: it’s helpful to other readers when people quote the post they are responding to.
     
  33. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No, but you may have Plympton blocked.
     
  34. InsideTheParker

    InsideTheParker Member SoSH Member

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  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I usually do, but sometimes if it's the post just before, I don't bother. But I'm now reminded it's probably good to anyway, for when people have people blocked.
     
  36. Brand Name

    Brand Name thinks there's no 'i' in denial Staff Member Dope Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's not perfect given wall limitations in parks like PNC, AT&T, Fenway to name a few, but what do you think about wOAA, weighted Outs Above Average? Statcast based stat that averages catch ratings relative to perceived difficulty of items like reaction time. It's not perfect but seems a solid option.

    Also don't know the full details but have heard another metric with improved backing is coming next spring.
     
  37. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Like you say, it’s not perfect given walk limitations. It’s alao going to still be fooled by who is playing next to you. If Jackie Bradley is playing next to you, or if Kevin Mitchell is playing next to you, is going to affect your ability to catch stuff.

    I think Stat Cast’s ability to give us information on speed, jumps, and routes, will be most valuable. Break things right down to their core drivers of range.
     
  38. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    There's a pretty immense gap between 'not perfect' and worthless, everyone knows they're far from perfect but choosing to pretend they don't exist in Harper's case is pretty silly, dcmissile gave you some specifics there.
     
  39. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Right. If you look at a list of RBI leaders there are a lot of good hitters on it. RBI aren’t a worthless stat at all, if that’s all you have.

    But we have more than that. Just like we have more to evaluate defense on than dWAR, or whatever context dependent counting stat you usually reference For defense.
     
  40. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Great, but this was a Harper-specific discussion. Do you have anything to say specifically about his defense or not?
     
  41. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Is there a place where the public has access to the data on his his speed, jumps, and routes? My impressions was the answer to that is no.

    Otherwise, I’d still go with the eye test over any existing defensive stat. I don’t think the defensive discussion on Harper is that definitive though anyway. He absolutely is not a CF or a gold Glover in the corners. Given that he’s asking for a record breaking contract at record length with opt outs, the defensive discussion doesn’t need to go any further than that, and the more relevant discussion is his offensive output. He wants to be paid like Mike Trout, but he’s nowhere near as consistent as Trout, and barely reached Trout’s established level at his peak.

    When you combine his inconsistency with the fact that routinely exceeding the second tier luxury tax threshold is so painful it is basically a de facto salary cap for most organizations in most years, the current demands are absurd. The Nats offer of 10 years and $300 million is more than fair. I would not want my favorite team to exceed it.
     
    #91 Plympton91, Nov 12, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2018
  42. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    +1 P-91.

    The person seeking the record breaking contract —$400 million or whatever — should bear the burden of proof, and it should be by clear and convincing evidence. If you have to struggle to make the offer, you shouldn’t. The guy needs to be Mike Trout clean.

    I’m thrilled that the RS are not remotely in the position of entering this auction and that they apparently no longer have a guy calling the shots who is susceptible to Julio Lugo/Adrian Gonzalez levels of obsession over any particular player.
     
  43. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    This I think we can probably all agree on.
     
  44. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Justin Turner, Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, Kenley Jansen have declined qualifying offers.
     
  45. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

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    All declined except Ryu.
     
  46. nattysez

    nattysez Member SoSH Member

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    Bad times for the Mariners (former performance coach for Mariners accuses the entire front office, including Dipoto, of racism v. Latin players)
     
  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Ohtani won AL ROY getting 25/30 1st place votes. Acuna ran away with NL ROY.
     
  48. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    I think one of these players is a FA this year.
     
  49. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, just Keuchel
     
  50. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    In Acuna, sportswriters once again prove that they do not understand that the clock in baseball is counted in “outs”

    Soto had him by 40 points of OBP. Soto had the higher OPS. The defensive difference by at least some of the less bad metrics was small.

    Soto should have won.
     

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