It’s not the be all and end all, but it’s not “worthless” as a predictor, either. Regular season net rating would have predicted the majority of past champions. And it would have done so better than W-L — for example, it would have indicated that the 2015-16 Warrior team that was 73-9 was weaker than the 2016-17 team that went 67-15, while the 2015-16 Cavs were significantly better than the 2016-17 version.
Yeah, it has always underrated the LeBron Cavs, who do seem to have a playoff “switch.” But the Cavs’ shortfall in net rating has never been nearly as big as it is now (+2.6 to the Celtics’ +5.2 and the Raptors’ +7.8). The 2016 championship team was #1 in the East by far in net rating.
I mean, it always seems unlikely that the incumbent, more playoff-tested team will fall ... until they do. Jordan’s Bulls, for example, were always the Pistons’ doormats ... until they weren’t. One of the indicators for when the worm is about to turn is net rating.
Not saying playoff experience and top-level star power aren’t big advantages come playoff time ... just saying I think the chances of another Cavs-Warriors finals are a lot farther from 100% than the average pundit would have you believe. They may be closer than a pure statistical indicator like 538 would suggest ... but then 538 currently has the chances of a Cavs-Warriors final at 21%. Reality is probably somewhere between those poles — maybe 50-50?
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